Equity Bottom-Up

• UMC reported Q424 revenues of NT$60,386 million, flat sequentially and in line with guidance.
• For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to NT$232,303 million, representing an increase of 4.4% YoY.
• Share price at a 4 year low and the outlook is still tepid, but almost $6 billion CapEx invested during the downturn years will pay dividends in the coming years..

• China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent’s approved game. 

• Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future.
• Following a 9.5% surge in its stock price after rumors of a potential acquisition surfaced, the company has been thrust into the spotlight.
• The speculation originated from a report by SemiAccurate, which hinted at an unnamed company with the financial clout to acquire Intel in its entirety.

• The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) released its fourth quarter results for 2024, indicating a year of both progress and challenges as the institution implements its new enterprise strategy aimed at sustainable, profitable growth and maximizing shareholder value.
• The bank’s 2024 results reflect modest earnings growth, consistent with its expectations and guidance shared during its Investor Day.
• On the positive side, Scotiabank reported progress in increasing primary client numbers, an essential element of its growth strategy.

• Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) held an impromptu analyst call to address concerns over a potential sugar tax and the free milk program, both of which have yet to materialise.
• The company is making a marked push into general trade, armed with a broader range of affordable products including Yoghurt Sticks, UHT milk, and ready-to-eat sausages. 
• Management remains confident about the outlook for 2025 with an ongoing recovery in dairy and an expansion into general trade, with a 10% increase in outlets covered. Top staples pick.  

• Lin Lijun voted against the privatization, which is in line with our analysis.Lin and some other long-term investors expressed their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price.
• Due to deal break, Henlius’ share price could be under pressure in short term.Investors may need to wait until the implementation of biosimilar VBP in 2025 to see situation clearly.
• Despite biosimilar VBP, we remain optimistic about the outlook of Henlius, because its future development positioning will not be limited to just biosimilars, but will focus on internationalization.

• Fifth Third Bancorp’s third-quarter 2024 earnings highlight a performance characterized by stability, strategic investments, and a focus on balanced growth in a dynamic economic environment.
• The bank reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.78 or $0.85 after excluding certain non-recurring items, outperforming previous guidance.
• With a return on equity of 12.8%, Fifth Third has positioned itself as a leader among its peers.

• PNC Financial Services Group, a major financial institution in the U.S., reported solid financial performance for Q4 2024 and for the entire fiscal year.
• The company generated a net income of $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter, bringing the annual total to $6 billion, or $13.74 per share.
• During the year, PNC benefited from fixed asset repricing, which substantially boosted its net interest income despite the lower demand for loans.

• Taiwan cable cut near China raises concerns about geopolitical tensions and gray zone tactics in the region.
• Samsung Electro-Mechanics and SoulBrain’s collaboration on advanced glass substrates aims for mass production by 2027.
• India drives semiconductor aspirations with GaN and SiC technology, showcasing its commitment to technological advancements in the industry.

• Q1-2 FY3/25 results were ahead of guidance in our view, with underlying earnings growth stemming from improved profitability in the Digital Entertainment segment and robust sales growth in both the Sports and Lifestyle segments.
• The governance issue disclosed in December 2024 involving improper transactions at subsidiary Chariloto appears to have been fully resolved with no contingent issues to resolve.
• The company has maintained FY3/25 guidance, and we view the earnings outlook for H2 FY3/25 to be positive due to a combination of stabilizing performance with sustained successful collaborative activity with Monster Strike and seasonal uplift in the Sports segment.

• News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
• TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
• TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 & 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.

• Rumors of a potential merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto, which would be the largest mining M&A deal ever
• Talks were reported to have occurred in the second half of last year but are not currently active
• Both companies have London listings and did not comment on the rumors, indicating a potential window of no talking due to UK takeover rules

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• Halliburton will report its Q4 earnings on 22/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For fiscal 2024, revenue and net profit are expected to drop.
• Halliburton’s OI PCR at 1.21, signalling bearish sentiment, with a 67% IV percentile indicating moderately high volatility.
• For the 24/Jan expiry, Halliburton’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 28.5, 29, and 30. Puts dominate at 26, 27, and 27.5. Put OI is higher at key levels.

• Shipment: expected to decrease by mid-single-digits QoQ ASP: Remains flat in USD/NTD appreciation may lead to decline for 1Q25 sales. 
• UMC’s addressable market in 2025 will grow in the low-single-digits YoY, driven by a moderate recovery in consumer applications in mature nodes.  
• 1Q25 consumer will grow QoQ thanks to higher DTV, DDI, Wi-Fi, and STB demand. Other applications will decline QoQ.

• Henderson sells Kowloon project to Miramar Hotel for $400M in a strategic move to shift focus and secure a profitable deal.
• CapitaLand shifts Tan to commercial REIT and hires Yong to lead Malaysia Trust, showing active leadership changes within the company.
• CapitaLand India Trust initiates $54M Hyderabad IT Park revamp, signaling a significant investment in the Indian real estate market.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s latest financial results reveal a robust performance for the fourth quarter of 2024.
• The firm reported net income of $14 billion with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.81 on revenue of $43.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year revenue increase of 10%.
• The return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was a solid 21%.

• Fu Shou Yuan’s performance in full-year 2024 is likely to fall short of expectations. The current pain point is declining performance growth due to difficulty of expanding beyond Shanghai region.
• If Fu Shou Yuan’s dividends/stock buybacks are lower-than-expected, we don’t think the stock is worth holding for the long term, since long-term revenue growth rate would fall to single digit.
• Since high growth is difficult to achieve, it’s better to buy at a low price (e.g. PE of 10x).When valuation bounces back to 15x PE, investors could consider taking profits.

• Taiwan startup secures military contract for anti-drone tech, expanding manufacturing in mobile sector
• Dixon sees phone sales spike, eyes display fab with India semiconductor incentive
• Samsung delays DRAM development, CG Power granted subsidy for OSAT facility, Poland faces US sanctions, Taiwan quake impacts semiconductor production, ByteDance dominates AI chatbot market, Broadcom and Marvell compete in ASIC opportunities

• Citigroup has released its fourth quarter earnings for 2024, showcasing a notable rise in net income by almost 40% to $12.7 billion for the full year, indicating positive momentum across key business segments.
• This performance was coupled with a revenue increase of 5% excluding divestitures, supported by a 17% uptick in fee revenue, and an efficiency ratio improvement by 340 basis points, which highlights the company’s operational improvements.
• However, certain macroeconomic challenges remain persistent, such as China’s slower-than-anticipated growth and Europe’s underperformance.

• UMC Misses 4Q24 Expectations — Gross Margin Dips with Flat QoQ Revenue
• UMC Guides for 40% Reduction in Capex Budget — We Believe Signals Strategic Shift to Less Capex Intensive Business Model
• Intel 12nm Partnership Remains on Track and is Key Business Model for Future; UMC Sees Improvement in Consumer Electronics Industry Inventories

• The sharp performance decline of China TCM in 2024 is actually in line with our expectation. The current valuation has not yet reached its lowest point. 
• China TCM can still achieve an average annual profit of RMB1 billion in the future. Together with the new management, we expect the Company to come out of the trough.
• Instead of betting on privatization again, it’s better to focus more on whether China TCM’s fundamentals would improve, which is the key factor that can support a sustainable valuation rebound.

• TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Fallen But Remains in Historically Extreme Territory
• UMC: -3.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
• ASE: +0.3% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level

• Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services (YATHARTH IN) successfully completed a QIP, raising Rs. 625 crore which was followed by the stock falling by nearly 26% in the following month.
• The company and its subsidiaries has recently been facing a significant challenge with an investigation by the Income Tax Department and the attachment of company assets.
• The document released on December 17, 2024 has confirmed the search and seizure operations conducted on October 19, 2023, targeting Yatharth and two of its subsidiaries.

• Sysmex America, Inc., a subsidiary of Sysmex Corp, recently announced plans to build a new reagent manufacturing, distribution, and service center in Brazil.
• In FY24, sales in the Americas region for Sysmex increased 12% YoY to ¥118.7B. Reagents drove the revenue growing 16%.
• Operating margins in the Americas have largely trodden on a volatile trajectory over the last few years hovering in the range of 4-6%, lowest among all the geographies.

• KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
• With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
• ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24

• HSBC Holdings plc reported a solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of its ongoing strategic initiatives.
• Key points from the earnings call highlight the firm’s continued growth, strategic restructuring, and some external influences, creating a nuanced outlook for potential investors.
• On the financial front, HSBC posted a profit before tax of $8.5 billion, marking an 11% increase compared to the same period last year, on a constant currency basis.

• Sonos, a renowned name in the premium audio industry, has recently faced one of its most challenging years.
• The company, known for its seamless blend of hardware and software, suffered a significant setback due to a disastrous app update that disrupted the user experience for millions.
• Released in May 2024, the redesigned app, meant to accelerate innovation, instead turned functional speakers into non-operational devices.

• Finley translates unstructured credit agreements into code to streamline credit management processes
• Borrowers like RAMP and ANOVA rely on Finley for tracking and automation of reporting requirements
• Lenders like Trinity Capital Valley bank use Finley as a command center for debt capital data and analysis across transactions.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Japan System Techniques (hereafter, the Company) announced its H1 Key consolidated figures net sales of JPY 13,260 mn (+9.3% YoY), operating profit of JPY 1,045 mn (+4.2% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 1,077 mn (+6.8% YoY), and profit attributable to owners o  parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 671 mn (+3.2% YoY).
• Higher sales and profits in the DX&SI business and Package business contributed in H1 earnings growth.
• For FY2025/3, the Company forecasts: net sales of JPY 28,570 mn (+9.1% YoY), operating profit of JPY 3,150 mn (+12.9% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 3,200 mn (+11.8% YoY), and net profit of JPY 2,300 mn (+10.2%).

• Ultrajaya Milk remains one of Indonesia’s leading dairy companies with a leading 36% market share of the UHT milk market, with Indonesia being one of the lowest consumers in ASEAN.  
• The company has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia, launched this year by President Prabowo.
• Ultrajaya‘s new distribution centre in MM2100 is now operating with manufacturing to start in 3Q2025, helping to drive longer-term growth. Valuation is attractive versus peer Cimory with growth outlook improving. 

• AI related demand accounted for ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025
• 5 year growth CAGR of 20%, at the top end of the previously guided 15-20% range
• On track for $100 billion revenue in 2025, and most likely, $200 billion by 2030

• UMC Results This Week; Insight Into Supply/Demand Environment for More Mature Semiconductor Segments
• Nvidia and TSMC Announce Partnership in Silicon Photonics Technology — Will Enable More Energy-Efficient AI
• TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth 

• Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)‘s positive profit alert suggested that FY24 earnings will beat the market consensus by a significant 25.8-34.6%. 
• Better profitability indicates that it will further accumulate net cash. At an unchanged 50% payout ratio, it yields 7.8%, but at a higher payout of 70%, it will be 10.9%.
• Trading on 0.59x P/B, it is at the historical average valuation. If 1SD above average, there will be a 20% upside. It will go to HK$2.20 if 2SD above.

• The relationship between Qorvo and Starboard Value has captured the attention of investors and market observers alike, as recent developments signal a potential turning point for the chip maker.
• On January 17, 2025, it was revealed that Starboard Value, one of Wall Street’s most aggressive activist investors, has acquired a 7.7% stake in Qorvo, equating to a $500 million investment.
• This announcement comes after a challenging year for Qorvo, during which its stock fell by 29%, weighed down by declining revenues in its mobile segment and an unfavorable product mix in the Android ecosystem.

• Anhui Province will lead the first National biological drugs VBP in 2025. However, we are optimistic because we think the whole industry will start to bottom out from here.
• EVER001 has the potential to become “a game changer” for membranous nephropathy treatment. We are waiting for Everest Medicines to reach licensing cooperation based on EVER001 in the future.
• The real motivation for the Disposals of WuXi XDC shares could be to boost WuXi AppTec’s stock price first so that the management can again reduce positions at high level.

• China-focused Twitter user “pandawatch” posted a tweet comparing the total shareholder return of Chinese tech companies.

• At the top of the list was online retailer JD.com (JD US — US$57 billion) with a total dividend yield and buyback yield of 10% — even after deducting share-based compensation. That’s impressively high.

• JD is one of China’s largest e-commerce companies. It dominates the niche of selling authentic, branded goods online with fast and reliable delivery.

• Mongolian Mining (975 HK) reported its production update, which is in line with our estimates for 7.9 million tons of washed coal sold for FY24. 
• The company commenced buybacks, purchasing 0.26% of its outstanding shares at 6.65 HKD/share. We believe the company will also announce a dividend in its upcoming results. 
• After the massive correction in share price owing to a weaker coking coal price, the stock trades at 4.2x PE, 1.9x EV-EBITDA, and a 7-10% dividend yield (30-50% payout ratio). 

• RaaS has published an update report on diversified financials company Bell Financial Group (ASX:BFG) following the release of FY24 unaudited revenue and reported NPAT, with group revenue +12% to $276m (RaaS $279m), implying H2 FY24 growth of 8.0%, and group NPAT +26% to $30.7m (RaaS $31m), implying H2 FY24 growth of 7.0%.
• Divisionally Retail & Wholesale NPAT increased 115% to $9.2m, with H1 growth >900% and a H2 decline of ~20% on forecast lower ECM activity off a high base and in line with ASX market data.
• Technology & Platforms and Products & Services NPAT increased 16% over the year, with H1 +~5% and H2 +~25% (including normalisation assumptions), likely to be aided by growth in Funds Under Administration (FUA) and higher transaction volumes.These businesses now represent 70% of group NPAT with a NPAT margin of 25% compared to 5.2% for Retail & Wholesale.

• Plug Power, a leading name in the hydrogen economy, recently secured a $1.66 billion loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
• This funding is set to propel the company’s plans to build several facilities for clean hydrogen production, with the first plant slated for Texas.
• The announcement comes amid political uncertainty, as President Donald Trump is set to take office with a potentially contrasting stance on clean energy policies.

• Duolingo has made headlines recently with a sharp rise in users flocking to its Mandarin courses.
• This surge coincides with a wave of U.S. users abandoning TikTok amidst uncertainty about its future, following potential bans discussed by the U.S. Supreme Court.
• As TikTok users migrate to RedNote (Xiaohongshu), a Chinese social media app, interest in Mandarin has grown significantly, contributing to a 216% year-over-year increase in Mandarin learners on Duolingo.

• Walgreens Boots Alliance’s latest earnings reveals a mixed financial and strategic picture for the company, which has been taking significant strides in response to ongoing challenges and strategic realignments.
• On the positive side, the company has initiated a turnaround strategy for its U.S. Retail Pharmacy business as a crucial focus area.
• The company made progress in optimizing its store footprint, with positive early results and better-than-expected script retention rates following store closures.

• Axiscades Engineering Technologies (AXET IN) provides comprehensive engineering and technology solutions for global manufacturers in diverse sectors such as aerospace, defence, automotive, energy, electronics, and heavy engineering. 
• The acquisition of Mistral Solutions using deferred consideration has helped the group grow its turnover and net profit during the last six years 
• Our concerns stem from the current vacuum in top management due to exits of senior personnel in spite of high remuneration levels, risk of goodwill impairment, few questionable transactions, etc.

• Constellation Brands’ third-quarter fiscal 2025 results reveal a mixed performance across its segments, with resilience shown in its beer business but significant challenges faced in the wine and spirits sector.
• The company’s strategic investments in marketing and distribution for its beer brands have driven an uptick in consumer demand.
• However, macroeconomic factors continue to challenge overall sales growth, prompting a recalibration of financial guidance.

• In a major strategic pivot, DuPont de Nemours has announced a streamlined separation strategy that could significantly impact its operational focus and market positioning.
• Initially planning a three-way split of its Water, Electronics, and Materials businesses, the company has revised its approach by deciding to retain the Water business while accelerating the spinoff of the Electronics division.
• This decision underscores DuPont’s intent to simplify its structure and enhance shareholder value in a more agile manner.

• LS Electric, one of the major power equipment providers in Korea, became a new supplier of distribution board components to Elon Musk’s xAI data centers in Memphis, Tennessee.
• Some of the major electric utilities and other companies in the US have been reluctant to use electrical equipment products from China due to quality and security concerns.
• Therefore, leading Korean companies such as LS Electric have been beneficiary of receiving more orders from the major US electrical utilities and other major companies in the US. 

• In Q424, there were dramatic shifts in share among the six listed Chinese express companies
• STO and J&T gained the most volume share, while volume leader ZTO gave up the most
• STO won share without ceding much price; ZTO still has not settled on a new strategy

• MSC Industrial Supply Co.’s first-quarter fiscal 2025 performance reflects a mixture of both achievements and ongoing challenges in line with its strategic objectives and the current economic climate.
• The company recorded a modest improvement against its sales expectations, with average daily sales surpassing initial guidance despite an overall 2.7% year-over-year decline.
• This decline was narrower than anticipated, driven by growth in the public sector and sustained momentum in their solutions offerings, notably within November, though these gains are not seen as indicative of a long-term trend.

• Plexus Corporation has demonstrated significant progress in its fiscal fourth-quarter 2024 results, reflecting both operational strengths and some challenges faced by the company.
• The company’s revenue for the quarter was robust, reaching $1.05 billion, which surpassed the guidance range and was driven by stronger demand across various market sectors.
• The aerospace and defense, as well as the healthcare/life sciences sectors, contributed significantly to this performance.

• RPM International delivered a robust performance in the fiscal year 2025 second quarter even amidst a macroeconomic landscape characterized by no to low growth.
• The company set new records in sales, adjusted EBIT margin, and adjusted EPS.
• This achievement is notable considering a significant $4.4 million earnings headwind due to a customer bankruptcy charge in the Consumer Group sector.

• AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) hosted an analyst call to outline prospects for 2025, which revealed a more positive outlook for fuel distribution driven by growth in demand from mining. 
• The chemical distribution will also benefit from demand from new smelters as well as new chemicals, whilst land sales at JIIPE are set to increase significantly in 2025. 
• The retail gas station business is picking up momentum and should benefit from the government reducing fuel subsidies. Valuations are attractive with support from a 7% dividend yield.

• BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY
• The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health
• NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations – both are a good view on US economy

• Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.
• Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.
• Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.

• LPX is recommended to buy at $104 with a 5-year price target of $255
• The company has developed value-added Oriented Strand Board products and converted mills to produce higher-margin siding
• LPX is expected to deliver mid/high-teens total shareholder return and has opportunities for reinvestment at high returns, focused on wood-based products for construction.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Pacific Current Group expected to receive a large tender offer at a premium of 20%+ in the next 2-4 months
• Trading at a 20% discount to estimated fair value NAV of A$13.47 per share with minimal NAV volatility risk
• Successful monetization of ownership stakes in boutique asset managers improving financial profile, poised for growth and value creation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Trump 2.0 AI policies spark debate and criticism with a focus on nationalism and economic protectionism, dividing opinions.
• China launches new low-altitude economy department to drive future growth, while Apple establishes Shanghai subsidiary to enhance AI integration in the country.
• Nvidia CEO confirms growing CoWoS-L production capacity, but Apple faces crisis in China with 25% drop in iPhone shipments despite market dominance. Vietnam semiconductor push hindered by power supply challenges, prompting Asian countries to counter Trump 2.0’s aggressive policies swiftly.

• Trigon announced that its two underground pumps failed at its Kombat Mine, halting operations.
• All personnel and mining equipment have been removed from the underground mine.
• The Company stated that despite the issues, Horizon still plans to proceed with its commitment to purchase TM’s interest in Kombat.

• Takachiho Koheki (hereafter, the Company) is a trading company highly specialized in electronics technology that has identified the underlying needs of its customers to introduce the world’s cutting-edge electronics products to Japan ahead of competitors.
• With engineering employees accounting for over 40% of its workforce, the Company is a highly specialized technical organization with a total of about 25,000 customer accounts, and its solid customer base is one of its assets.

• In H1 FY2025/3, the Company surpassed initial estimates, reporting consolidated net sales of JPY13,314 mn (+4.6% YoY), operating profit of JPY936 mn (+31.2% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY811 mn (-23.2% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereinafter, net profit) of JPY594 mn (-17.2% YoY).

• In light of recent performance trends, DWTI has revised its initial earnings forecasts announced on February 9, 2024.
• In addition, the Company is recording an extraordinary loss in its non-consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending December 2024.
• Net sales are expected to increase due to strong royalty income from ophthalmic surgical aid “DW-1002” in Europe, the United States, etc.

• For the first time in decades, Ahold Delhaize’s main Dutch rival Jumbo saw its FY24 sales falling short of the prior year’s level.
• Besides, its market share decreased for the third consecutive year. According to Jumbo, both are mainly the result of price cuts and the ban on tobacco sales, which has been in force since July.
• Royal Jumbo Food Group’s FY24 sales came in at EUR 10.72bn, down by about 2.7% when compared to a year earlier. 

• TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY
• TSMC’s Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment
• Long-Term Gross Margins — Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a “New Normal”?

• 4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.
• 2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn. 
• The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS.  This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.

• Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion  (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.
• Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.   
• AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),

• Steep decline in the stock price triggered a wave of speculation and rumours, further fueling the negative sentiment surrounding Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN).
• The rumours ranged from serious allegations of inventory overvaluation and IT raids to concerns about changes in franchisee agreements and even accusations of bribery.
• While Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) has dismissed the overvaluation allegations, its inventory turnover ratio (ITR) has consistently lagged behind the industry leader Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) .

• Legend Biotech has been making headlines with its breakthrough CAR-T therapy, CARVYKTI, which has revolutionized the treatment of multiple myeloma.
• This pioneering therapy, co commercialized with Johnson & Johnson, has achieved record-setting launches and boasts a significant survival benefit over standard treatments.
• The company’s robust clinical pipeline, recent partnerships, and aggressive manufacturing expansions signal strong growth potential.

• Estée Lauder Companies, a titan in the global cosmetics industry, has recently found itself at the epicenter of takeover and activist speculation.
• Reports have reignited discussions about potential acquisition interest and the involvement of activist investors.
• Betaville’s “uncooked” alert suggested renewed whispers of a takeover, while past rumors linked activist investor Nelson Peltz to Estée Lauder, although significant hurdles persist given the family’s control over the company.

• Scape, a living platform, receives a significant investment of $434 million from Korea’s NPS, boosting its growth and expansion.
• Ho Bee Land makes a competitive bid of $242 million for an Australian builder, directly challenging Proprium Capital in the real estate market.
• Korea’s NPS joins forces with Almanac Realty in a $800 million real estate joint venture, solidifying their presence in the industry.

• Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN) is pivoting toward niche, high-value generics like Revlimid and Semaglutide, leveraging robust R&D, strategic acquisitions, and geographic expansions for long-term market leadership.
• This approach combats conventional generic pricing pressures, delivers stronger profit margins, and positions Natco for sustainable, innovation-driven success in increasingly competitive regulated markets.
• Natco’s willingness to tackle complex molecules and patent challenges demonstrates resilience, signaling a more diversified pipeline, prudent capital use, and potential for robust shareholder returns.

• Wintermar Offshore Marine has seen a distinct turnaround in its fortunes over the last two years and is now well-positioned to benefit from an upcycle in the Offshore Services space. 
• Charter rates have started to move up in an environment with low vessel supply, especially in the high-tier space where Wintermar has most exposure with new vessels being added. 
• Wintermar has net cash, putting it in a strong position to increase its fleet into the upcycle driven by increased offshore exploration in Southeast Asia. Valuations remain attractive.

• Toyota Motor Corporation, the world’s largest automaker by production volume, finds itself at a critical juncture in the global automotive industry.
• Despite a commendable first-half operating income of ¥2.464 trillion for fiscal 2025 and a full-year forecast of ¥4.3 trillion, the company’s electrification strategy—or lack thereof—remains a contentious issue.
• While Toyota has mastered the art of hybrid and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, it continues to lag significantly behind competitors like Tesla and BYD in the electric vehicle (EV) space.

• December 2024 revenues of NT$278.16 billion, up 0.8% MoM and up a remarkable 57.8% YoY. It was the second highest monthly revenue in the company’s history.
• Q424 revenue amounted to NT$868,460. At the company’s forecasted exchange rate for Q4,  NT$32 to the US$, this amounts to $27.14 billion, the company’s highest quarterly revenue ever
• We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.

• Fosun hopes to privatize Henlius at a low price. As usual, it does not consider the interests of long-term investors, who may express their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization.
• Lin Lijun clearly has bargaining chips. He may ask Fosun to provide a clear plan for future relisting/asset restructuring, and how the Share Alternative will be linked to this plan.
• There is a possibility this privatization may fail. Such possibility is not low, because investors will only support the privatization if they can be sure that their interests are protected.

• Tesla is once again reshaping the automotive and energy landscape with its latest wave of innovations that span from groundbreaking vehicle updates to advances in artificial intelligence and energy solutions.
• The company’s updated Model Y in China, a redesign aimed at maximizing efficiency, represents just one facet of its dynamic transformation.
• Recent Q3 2024 earnings discussions revealed record deliveries, improved vehicle safety metrics, and ambitious plans for scaling autonomous driving technologies and energy storage capabilities.

• ASML’s total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC
• The company’s share price recently experienced a significant two-day drop
• Despite past reservations, the author sees potential for a good risk/reward opportunity in buying ASML stock due to better pricing and negative investor sentiment on lithography

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.
• • Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.
• Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.

• Lock up expiry today of 21.2 million shares held by Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN)‘s anchor investors. This could improve free float to 17.5% with rest held by the parent.
• Hyundai India Management is positive about its CY2025 outlook and expects to grow by similar numbers or more in 2025 as it did in 2024. 
• Creta Electric’s launch is scheduled on Jan 17th; Hyundai hopes to replicate the growth and excitement seen with its original Creta model.

• TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan
• TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook & Q125 Look Ahead 
• Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co 

• Santarli and Apex make joint bid worth $368M for a site in Western Singapore, expanding their real estate portfolio.
• CVC-backed chain competes for First REIT’s Indonesian assets valued at $599M, increasing their presence in the market.
• EdgeConneX ventures into Japan with a 140MW data center project in Greater Osaka, showcasing their global growth strategy.

• Lower average freight rate momentum and deceleration in 4Q24 load factor expansions for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) have raised alarm for a weaker industry outlook.
• Spot freight rate has come down by 6.8% in the last two weeks. The potential ease of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East may induce a capacity return.
• The consensus forecasts for FY25-26 have been downgraded by 5-9%, suggesting caution in the market. Its dividend yield will lower from 14.0% in FY24 to just 4.3% in FY26.

• Delta Thailand Weakness Amid Block Trade and Convertible Bond News
• Delta Taiwan Offering Convertible Bonds, Convertible into Delta Thailand Shares
• Delta Thailand Still Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan — Short Delta Thailand vs. Long Delta Taiwan

• In the past several years, one of the biggest risk factors on Samsung Electronics and other Samsung Group affiliates has been the huge inheritance tax payments by the Lee family.
• Despite the weak share price performances of the four major Samsung Group affiliates, their consolidated equity increased by 31.4% on average from end of 2019 to end of 3Q 2024.
• Once Lee family pays off the fifth installment in 2025, the market could look upon this situation more favorably due to reduced overhang associated with additional future inheritance tax payments.

• Shift reported a 95% increase in OP, to ¥3.2bn, compared to consensus estimate of ¥2.6bn on January 14 after the close.
• Just under 5 months ago, we suggested the stock was about 45% undervalued. It is up 40%.
• We still expect 20% annual growth through 2030. This is no longer a turnaround stock, but now one of the most solid growth stocks in the market.

• There is a great opportunity for someone joining an advanced semiconductor manufacturing camp because there could be fewer players in the field.  
• For a long time, TSMC production staff have won better bonuses in the company, meaning they might be able to overcome the difficulties in production.  
• Rapidus might need another 5 years or more to become profitable if everything runs smoothly for 2nm technology. 

• China’s semiconductor industry faces devastation with 10,000 companies going bankrupt and hiring coming to a halt.
• Biden shifts chip strategy favoring TSMC over Intel as his term nears end, signaling a change in approach.
• Advancements in technology may soon make ‘one robot per household’ a reality, with AI chip export ban discussions ongoing.

• Apcotex Industries (APCO IN)  promoted by Ex-Asian Paints MD Mr. Atul Choksey, is a leading manufacturer of synthetic rubber and latex in India. 
• Despite achieving record sales volume in H1 FY25, Apcotex experienced a decline in EBITDA margins due to RM pricing and Chinese competition.
• Apcotex Industries (APCO IN)  is at its worst possible margins and applied for anti-dumping duty for its product.

• Money Forward, Japan’s leading SaaS provider, reported strong results for its fiscal year ending November 2024: Sales +33% YoY to ¥40.4 billion
• FY11/25 EBITDA guidance of ¥3.5 billion significantly lags consensus expectations of ¥6 billion. 
• The disappointing EBITDA guidance may trigger further selling, but there is no material change to the company’s long-term fundamentals. Time to be bullish

• Suven Pharmaceuticals (SUVENPHA IN) is acquiring56% equity share capital of ADC/XDC-focused CRDMO, NJ Bio for $64M, strengthening position in a high growth market.  
• In June 2024, Suven announced the acquisition of a majority stake in an oligonucleotide focused CDMO player, Sapala Organics, thereby adding another high-growth complex technology to its CDMO business.
• Recently, shareholders have approved Suven’s merger with Cohance Lifesciences. Cohance has global leadership in select low-mid volume molecules as well as unique capabilities in the form of its ADC platform.

• Q424 volume growth for J&T’s two main segments accelerated — but how’d they do it?
• In Chinese domestic segment last year, J&T gained share vs market leader ZTO Express
• We believe J&T’s volatile growth patterns could indicate painful price-volume tradeoffs

• U.S. Energy (NASDAQ: USEG) is an independent energy company historically focused on the acquisition and development of oil and natural gas producing properties in the U.S. In June 2024, the company acquired acreage in Montana with the goal of extracting and marketing helium products and other industrial gases.
• Going forward, the primary focus will be on the development and operation of helium and other industrial gases, along with the development of carbon sequestration capabilities.
• The company has no debt and $21.15 million in available liquidity.

• TSMC: +28.4% Premium; Near-All-Time High, Good Level to Short the Spread
• UMC: -0.4% Discount; Fifth Consecutive Month of Increase in ADR Headroom
• CHT: -0.9% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread

• Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.
• Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.
• The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.

• Market Euphoria and Investment Challenges: Trump’s re-election has fueled excitement in the stock market, especially for Elon Musk-linked companies, but investing in SpaceX remains difficult due to its private status.  
• Proxy Stocks: Investors can access SpaceX indirectly through proxy stocks like Rocket Lab (RKLB) or funds such as Destiny Tech100 Inc. (DXYZ) and the ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX). 
• Valuation Concerns on DXYZ: Despite DXYZ’s significant outperformance compared to other proxies, its rapidly expanded market cap/fair value multiple raises concerns about overvaluation and stock price sustainability.

• Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
• Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
• Company’s dedication to Bitcoin and its ecosystems driving future shareholder returns, despite being misunderstood due to its history

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Vinfast (VFS US) continues to progress in building out its EV brand, being the number one auto brand in Vietnam, and expanding into Indonesia, the Philippines, India, and the US.
• A key trend for Vinfast (VFS US) has been the shift in sales to related GSM towards direct retail sales, which now make up around 80% of total EV sales.
• Its strategies to showcase EVs through ride-hailing, leasing batteries, providing captive charging infrastructure, and guaranteed resale values are proving to be successful one, being rolled out across markets. 

• Ryohin Keikaku made a big splash in 2021 when it announced a sales target of ¥3 trillion by 2030, more than a six-fold increase. 
• Following a reshuffling of management, targets have been slashed but growth rates still remain impressive with a near doubling of sales by 2030.
• At home, the push into food is working and at last, overseas markets are getting the attention they deserve. The next Uniqlo?

• TSMC ends partnership with PowerAIR in Singapore over Huawei worries, impacting supply chain in tech industry.
• China retaliates against US with customs actions; CXMT starts manufacturing DDR5 chips, meeting demand for next-gen technology.
• India plans display fabrication facility, offering growth potential but encountering challenges. Luxshare’s purchase of Wingtech ODM to enhance design capabilities, reduce reliance on Apple, and boost tech industry prowess.

• Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.
• Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.
• UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.

• Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower than current price.
• Given the lack of upside relative to its NAV, we have a Negative View of Doosan Corp. 
• Considering Doosan Group’s repeated corporate governance concerns in the past decade, our holdco discount estimate of 50% is probably generous. 

• BASE Inc (4477 JP — US$234 million) is an e-commerce technology company based in Tokyo, Japan.

• The software helps small merchants open stores online and manage their operations. BASE is often likened to “Shopify of Japan” due to similarities in their product offerings.

• However, investors have become skeptical about BASE, with the stock now trading at just 0.8x EV/Sales — a massive discount to Shopify’s 13.3x.