Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: Sanei Architecture Planning, Amorepacific Group, Trent Ltd, China Resources Beer Holdings, JD Health International , Shakey’s Pizza, JD.com Inc (ADR), JD.com , Golf Digest Online and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sanei Architecture Planning (3228) Finds Saviour from Mafia-Linked Former Boss and Majority Owner
  • Amorepacific Group: SoTP Valuation and Meaning of Min-Jung Suh Taking One Year Leave of Absence
  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow
  • Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH) Limit Up 10% Today After Results Beat; Buy China Resources Beer
  • JD Health 1H2023: Reports Operating Profits; Margin Upside Is Very Limited
  • Shakey’s Pizza: Q2 2023 Stellar, Increasing Guidance to 30% YoY Top/Bottomline Growth
  • Jindong (JD US): We Would Stay on the Sideline
  • JD (9618 HK): 2Q23, Main Business Began to Recover, Buy
  • [JD Health (6618 HK, BUY, TP HK$65) TP Change]: Benefit of Alternative Channel Starts to Show
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Golf Digest Online (3319 JP)


Sanei Architecture Planning (3228) Finds Saviour from Mafia-Linked Former Boss and Majority Owner

By Travis Lundy

  • [cue Tom Hardy gif saying “That’s Bait”]. But yes, this story has a backstory to the Japanese underworld, and while the original sin may have been minor, it’s everything.
  • The firm was raided, the CEO resigned, a govt authority “recommended” Sanei get rid of Mr Koike’s influence, banks got antsy, employee morale dropped. Sanei needed a saviour.
  • Koike-San asked Open House (3288 JP) to buy his shares. They agreed to take over the company. It’s basically a done deal with a possible twist.

Amorepacific Group: SoTP Valuation and Meaning of Min-Jung Suh Taking One Year Leave of Absence

By Douglas Kim

  • About a week ago, it was announced that Chairman’s elder daughter Min-Jung Suh will take a long one year leave of absence.
  • Chairman Suh is very dissatisfied with the company’s results in the past three years and wants to shake up the company to improve its operations, in our view. 
  • Our base case NAV valuation of Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) is 39,611 won, which is 29% higher than current price.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow

By Brian Freitas


Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH) Limit Up 10% Today After Results Beat; Buy China Resources Beer

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Chongqing Brewery Co A (600132 CH) announced a impressive earnings beat last night, with net profit up 24% yoy in 2Q23.  Stock is limit up (10%) today.
  • The results confirm the premiumization thesis of the China beer sector is in tact.
  • Buy China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK); take advantage of the overall H-share market weakness and unfounded fear on deflation.   

JD Health 1H2023: Reports Operating Profits; Margin Upside Is Very Limited

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • JD Health reported 1H2023 results yesterday. 1H revenue increased 34.0% YoY to RMB27.1bn (vs consensus RMB27.5bn) and reported an OP of RMB943.9m (vs consensus RMB753.2m) vs RMB60.1m in 1H2022.
  • Though the company made OPM of 5.7% in 1Q2023, 1H2023 OPM was 3.5% in line with our analysis that OPM in excess of 2-3% may not be possible in LT.
  • There is very little upside for GPM to improve unless the company’s high-margin service business takes off at a higher rate which seems unrealistic to us.

Shakey’s Pizza: Q2 2023 Stellar, Increasing Guidance to 30% YoY Top/Bottomline Growth

By Sameer Taneja

  • We attended the Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM) conference call for H1 FY23. Management was upbeat and guided 30% top/bottom line growth for FY23 ( up from 20% in Q1 FY23)
  • The company reported its highest-ever quarterly systemwide sales of 4.6 bn pesos ( up 29% YoY) due to network expansion, dine-in recovery, and, to a certain extent, price hikes.
  • Trading at a 12.9x/9.9x FY23e/24e PE, the stock is cheap, and growth of 20% CAGR over the next 3-4 years is not being factored in. 

Jindong (JD US): We Would Stay on the Sideline

By Eric Chen

  • JD reported 2Q results that were slightly better than the street expected.
  • But the set of results did little to alleviate our concerns about the structural challenges JD need to combat.
  • We still don’t think JD represents a viable investment case due to its lack of growth catalysts (vs. PDD) and attractive valuation (vs. Alibaba). We would stay on the sideline.

JD (9618 HK): 2Q23, Main Business Began to Recover, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • The main business line, home appliance began to grow by two digits.
  • Logistics revenue continued to grow strongly by 51% YoY and can still break even.
  • The operating profit rose to RMB7.3 bn in 2Q23 versus RMB3.8 bn in 2Q22.

[JD Health (6618 HK, BUY, TP HK$65) TP Change]: Benefit of Alternative Channel Starts to Show

By Shawn Yang

  • JDHealth (JDH) reported C1H23 top line, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income 9.3%, 17% and 162% above our estimates. 
  • We believe that with years of tightening NDRL and the recent hardline anti-corruption campaign, 
  • More and more pharmaceuticals and patients are looking for alternative channels, which bodes well for JDH in the long run; We raise TP from HK$57 to HK$65 and reiterate BUY

2Q Follow-Up – Golf Digest Online (3319 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Post-merger integration (PMI) for SkyTrak business was largely completed during the 1H, and the GOLFTEC ANYWHERE initiative is now in full swing.
  • GOLFTEC continues to steadily open new corporate centers.
  • Following 1H unit sales of 5,000 units (new SkyTrak+ only launched at the end of May), the Company expects SkyTrak 2H unit sales of 10,000+ units. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Sanei Architecture Planning, GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, Cie Financiere Richemont , Tencent Music, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP): Open House’s JPY2,025 Tender Offer
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Striking a New Balance
  • Richemont: Investment Case Intact. Pullback Offers Entry Point
  • [Tencent Music (TME US, SELL, TP US$5.7) TP Change]: Competition Remains the Biggest Downward Factor
  • Expanding Nominal Profits from Shift from Deflation Rather than P/B Is the Driver of Stock Prices
  • Addressing Misconceptions: Lotte Tour’s Short-Selling Entry Point


Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP): Open House’s JPY2,025 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP) has recommended Open House (3288 JP)’s tender offer of JPY2,025 per share, an 18.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 August).
  • The transaction is required to facilitate the exit of Mr Koike, the largest shareholder, and satisfy Article 27 of the Tokyo Metropolitan Organized Crime Exclusion Ordinance.
  • Irrevocables represent a 64.21% ownership ratio, and the lower limit requires a 6.9% minority acceptance rate. The offer is a reasonable solution to the current predicament. 

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Striking a New Balance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) released results for 2Q2023, which reflected a slower growth environment exacerbated by lower incentive spend but some significant progress towards its profitability goals for 2023.
  • The company continues to focus on maintaining high-quality users but with an increasing focus on more affordable offerings to expand its demographic reach with the potential to double its users.
  • GoTo is undergoing a full assessment across all divisions, with a focus on improving synergies, with new strategies for growth to be revealed next quarter.

Richemont: Investment Case Intact. Pullback Offers Entry Point

By Alexis Dwek

  • Q1 2024 results proved that the long trade into numbers was crowded, with the share price falling 10% on the day, despite strong results
  • Richemont is in an excellent position to capture future growth coupled with very high profitability
  • Investment thesis intact: Cartier and Van Cleef keep gaining market share in a branded fine jewellery category that remains one of the most fundamentally attractive places to be

[Tencent Music (TME US, SELL, TP US$5.7) TP Change]: Competition Remains the Biggest Downward Factor

By Shawn Yang

  • TME reported in-line results with continued divergence in its two major businesses: Online music increased by 48% YoY, while social entertainment declined by 25% YoY.
  • We expect these trends to continue, with online music benefiting from price increases and social entertainment facing ongoing challenges from competition, regulations, and macro influences.
  • Recently, Douyin has been advancing the integration of its large entertainment division. We anticipate that this will pose pressure on TME. Remain SELL and cut TP to US$ 5.7.

Expanding Nominal Profits from Shift from Deflation Rather than P/B Is the Driver of Stock Prices

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE market capitalization of has doubled since 1990 and the number of companies has doubled, while TOPIX is 20% lower than its 1989 high. Money went mainly to IPOs.
  • P/B, TSE’s expectation for stock price appreciation, had high correlation with TOPIX, 0.84 from 1999-2019. However, it correlated negatively for 4 years from 2020 with other factors having significant impact.
  • Correlation between TOPIX and nominal GDP is 0.94 for 2020-2023, showing higher correlation. Expectations of higher nominal profits caused by transition from deflation to inflation are behind the stock rally.

Addressing Misconceptions: Lotte Tour’s Short-Selling Entry Point

By Sanghyun Park

  • Lotte Tour has emerged as a prominent short-selling target in the Korean market, and there are efforts to use an ₩80B convertible bond (CB) to exploit its dilution/overhang risk.
  • Linden Capital and LMR, upon obtaining the CB, promptly borrowed 4.6M shares from Donghwa for short selling. Thus, the CB conversion incentive remains largely unaffected by stock price changes.
  • We should avoid synchronizing our entry point with CB conversion. Instead, we should target the likely rights issuance in the latter half of the year, anticipated in the market.

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Daily Brief Consumer: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, Amorepacific Corp, The Keepers Holdings, Home Product Center, Yum! Brands Inc, SOCAR, Cvs Health Corp, Kraft Heinz Co, XWELL and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Shifting the Needle?
  • Amorepacific Corp: Return of the Korean Cosmetics King With End of Ban on Chinese Group Tours
  • Keepers Holdings: Q2 2023 Conference Call: Upbeat Good Momentum into H2 2023
  • GoTo: Cost Cutting Measures Pay Off but What About Growth?
  • Home Product Center (HMPRO TB): Return To Growth
  • Yum! Brands Inc.: Improving Same-Store Sales & Other Key Drivers
  • SoCar Lock-Up – Close to All-Time Low but Can Expect Some Post-Lockup Selling
  • CVS Health Corporation: 5 Key Growth Factors Every Investor Must Know! – Major Drivers
  • The Kraft Heinz Company: Mid-Single Digit Growth Strategy Revealed! – Major Drivers
  • XWELL, Inc. – 2Q23 Results; Company Making Progress Toward Return to Profitability


GoTo (GOTO IJ) – Shifting the Needle?

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo is laser-focused on shifting the needle towards a semblance of profitability and likely with renewed vigour with a new management team in place. 
  • 2Q2023 results will likely reflect a slower headline GMV but should show an improvement in take rates and contribution margin. More colour on recent initiatives would be welcomed by investors.
  • GoTo has launched a standalone GoPay app which should help to boost its off-platform usage and has the potential to nurture more collaboration with Bank Jago.

Amorepacific Corp: Return of the Korean Cosmetics King With End of Ban on Chinese Group Tours

By Douglas Kim

  • Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the return of Chinese group tours in Korea.
  • Now that the Chinese government is allowing group tours to South Korea, this will likely lead to a sharp improvement in the company’s sales and profits in 2023-2024.
  • We expect the consensus to raise sales estimates of Amorepacific Corp by about 3-5%+ and operating profit estimates by 20-30%+ in 2023 and 2024. 

Keepers Holdings: Q2 2023 Conference Call: Upbeat Good Momentum into H2 2023

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) conference call was upbeat, with the guidance of improved results from Bodegas W&H and sequential seasonal improvement from H12023 to H2 2023.
  • Unrealized gross profits of 203 mn pesos ( H1 gross profit 1.8 bn pesos) due to in-transit goods from Bodegas W&H should provide an upside to margins in H2 2023. 
  • Trading at 8.54x/7.1x PE FY23e/24e and net cash with a dividend yield of 4.6%/5.3% FY23e/24e, a monopoly position in imported spirit distribution (>70% Mkt share), a name worth exploring. 

GoTo: Cost Cutting Measures Pay Off but What About Growth?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) reported 2Q2023 results. Gross revenue increased 5.6% YoY to IDR5.83trn while adj. EBITDA losses further narrowed down to IDR1.21trn vs IDR4.3trn in 2Q2022.
  • The company’s cost discipline measures have helped cut down on losses but growth rates have seen huge declines over the last few quarters.
  • Demand for food delivery has declined in Indonesia while entry of TikToK Shop has posed significant threat on Tokopedia, Shopee and other e-commerce platforms in the country.

Home Product Center (HMPRO TB): Return To Growth

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Home Product Center (HMPRO TB) is a play on improving Thailand consumer sentiment driven by easing inflation, formation of new Thai government, and continued return of tourists.
  • The company is expected to open 10 new stores in 2023, a major pick up in growth from only 1.7% sales CAGR in 2017-2023. 
  • Strong track record of management in execution and reputation. Valuation also reasonable. 

Yum! Brands Inc.: Improving Same-Store Sales & Other Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Brands delivered mixed results in its most recent result, with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • The company produced same-store sales growth of 9% and unit growth of 6% for the quarter, with KFC setting the standard with a remarkable system sales growth on the back of Yum’s industry-leading development momentum, standout marketing initiatives, and pertinent new product layers like the introduction of original recipe hand-breaded chicken nuggets in the U.S.
  • Taco Bell’s global system sales increased for the quarter, driven by unit expansion and same-store sales growth as the management continued elevating the brand and launching digital initiatives.

SoCar Lock-Up – Close to All-Time Low but Can Expect Some Post-Lockup Selling

By Ethan Aw

  • SOCAR (403550 KS) was listed on 22nd Aug 2022, where it raised US$78m in its Korea IPO. Its one-year lockup will expire on 21st Aug 2023. 
  • SoCar is a Korean car sharing business aiming to become an all-in-one mobility solutions provider, with approximately 83% domestic market share in the car sharing space as of 1H23. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

CVS Health Corporation: 5 Key Growth Factors Every Investor Must Know! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CVS Health Corporation exceeded the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, achieving key milestones in its strategy to deliver superior health experiences.
  • The acquisitions of Signify Health and Oak Street Health have strengthened its position in value-based care, and efforts to connect these assets with CVS Health’s existing offerings are expected to accelerate growth.
  • We give CVS Health Corporation a ‘Buy’ rating with a revised target price.

The Kraft Heinz Company: Mid-Single Digit Growth Strategy Revealed! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Kraft Heinz Company delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations but managed to surpass the analyst consensus regarding earnings.
  • Although price gaps remained wider than what the Kraft Heinz management would have liked throughout the quarter, the company still managed to deliver mid-single-digit top-line growth that was within the team’s expectations.
  • Their strategies started to work, producing better outcomes throughout the quarter, creating momentum for the second half of the year.

XWELL, Inc. – 2Q23 Results; Company Making Progress Toward Return to Profitability

By Water Tower Research

  • XWELL reported sequential top-line growth and continued expense reduction, with revenues up 15% and expenses down 13% sequentially, thus continuing on its way toward a return to profitability.

  • XWELL now has 26 domestic stores and 10 international stores, with at least one additional international location set to open for the remainder of the year.

  • XWELL is finding that post COVID, the sweet spot for its stores might be a smaller footprint and more automated services, such as the automated massage chairs and the autonomous manicure machines. 


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Daily Brief Consumer: Brilliance China Automotive, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Procter & Gamble Co, Mondelez International, Ford Motor Co, Serve Robotics, Cocoa Futures and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Brilliance China (1114 HK): Driving Back Into Passive Portfolios
  • Now Is the Time to Seek Ingenuity in Cash Allocation, Not Lament the Decline in Equity Financing
  • Procter & Gamble: The Driving Force Behind their Amazing Organic Sales! – Key Drivers
  • Mondelez International Inc.: Why They Are Called the Titans of the Snack World! – Key Drivers
  • Ford Motor Company: Does It Have Any Kind Of Competitive Edge In This EV Wave? – Key Drivers
  • Serve It Up
  • Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down


Brilliance China (1114 HK): Driving Back Into Passive Portfolios

By Brian Freitas

  • Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) was deleted from local and global indices following its prolonged trading suspension from April 2021 to September 2022.
  • Following the resumption of trading, Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) was added to the HSCI in March and subsequently to Southbound Stock Connect.
  • The stock should be bought by global passive trackers over the next few months and there should be substantial passive inflows.

Now Is the Time to Seek Ingenuity in Cash Allocation, Not Lament the Decline in Equity Financing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies enjoy the benefits of going public, as a larger market capitalization expands their financing and makes it easier to acquire other companies, without capital raising through equity issuance.
  • In a market economy, cash returned to shareholders through share buybacks etc is rationally allocated by investing it in companies that need more funds or are worthy of investment.
  • Companies should successfully communicate their strategies for expanding corporate value and how to use cash to do so. More such companies will lead to the expansion of Tokyo market.

Procter & Gamble: The Driving Force Behind their Amazing Organic Sales! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Procter & Gamble surpassed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Growth was widespread across the company’s segments, with organic sales increasing in all ten product categories.
  • Fabric Care, Home Care, and Hair Care increased by high single digits, while Skin and Personal Care, Baby Care, Family Care, and Grooming increased by mid-singles.

Mondelez International Inc.: Why They Are Called the Titans of the Snack World! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Mondelez International managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company managed double-digit organic net revenue growth across each area, good pricing execution, decent profit dollar growth, and carried out considerable brand investments.
  • We give Mondelez International a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Ford Motor Company: Does It Have Any Kind Of Competitive Edge In This EV Wave? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ford Motor delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.
  • With over $47 billion in liquidity at the end of the quarter, Ford Motor has sufficient funds for future investments.
  • We give Ford Motor Company a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Serve It Up

By subSPAC

  • The delivery market is booming, set to hit a whopping $1 trillion by 2030. And right in the middle of this rush is Serve Robotics.
  • Fresh from a new deal with Uber Eats, Serve Robotics has made headlines, revealing plans to go public via a SPAC merger.
  • The company’s big plan is to shake up the delivery game by blending AI, robotics, and autonomy

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down

By The Commodity Report

  • Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp – a bit comparable with equity markets but definitely more volatile.
  • Especially Parabolic advances, like the one in cocoa futures, often end with a sweeping reversal.
  • Fortunately, the soybean complex is one we covered intensively during this year.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Great Wall Motor, L’Occitane, Paradise Co Ltd, Sapporo Clinical Laboratory and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Board Updates on the Potential Offer Structure and Price
  • Paradise: Boost from End of Ban of Chinese Group Tours to Korea Vs Inspire Resort Opening in Incheon
  • Sapporo Clinical Laboratory Inc (TYO 9776)


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
  • We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
  • We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 

L’Occitane (973 HK): Board Updates on the Potential Offer Structure and Price

By Arun George

  • In response to media speculation, L’Occitane (973 HK) has clarified that Reinold Geiger, the Chairman and the largest shareholder, is contemplating a possible transaction through a voluntary general offer.
  • However, the rumoured offer of HK$35 per share is false. Mr Geiger has confirmed that the potential offer price would be no less than HK$26.00 per share.
  • The floor price of HK$26 is light and needs a bump (towards HK$30), particularly if Mr Geiger wants 95% of voting rights to exercise the right of compulsory acquisition (squeeze-out).

Paradise: Boost from End of Ban of Chinese Group Tours to Korea Vs Inspire Resort Opening in Incheon

By Douglas Kim

  • Paradise is one of the largest foreigners only casino operators in Korea which should benefit from the end of the ban of Chinese group tours to Korea.
  • However, Paradise will face additional competition from the opening of the new Inspire Entertainment Resort in Incheon which is expected to open by the end of 2023. 
  • Paradise is likely to benefit from a combination of higher earnings and valuation multiples in the coming months. 

Sapporo Clinical Laboratory Inc (TYO 9776)

By Altay Capital

  • This is a quick profile of one of the many Japanese stocks that have caught my interest and are in my cheap Japanese basket.
  • I’ll be doing more frequent short write ups on names in this basket over the coming months.
  • Sapporo Clinical Laboratory is a $24m market cap operator of retail pharmacies and clinical testing facilities across Hokkaido, Japan. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Bukalapak.com PT Tbk, Ford Motor Co, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – A Virtuous Circle to Profitability
  • Ford: Staying The Course
  • Amid Slow ROE Improvement, Calls for Stronger Shareholder Returns Will Become Even Stronger


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – A Virtuous Circle to Profitability

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bukalapak continues to demonstrate the effectiveness of circular nature of its business model in 2Q2023, with demand from its O2O business fueling growth in its marketplace, creating a flywheel effect.
  • Although TPV growth slowed slightly in 2Q2023, revenues saw much stronger growth, especially its marketplace business, which booked much higher take-rates driven by its specialty verticals, including gaming and gadgets.
  • Bukalapak will continue to benefit from expanding take rates as specialty, such as AlloFresh feed in more SKUs and new verticals gain traction. Valuations remain attractive on 0.85x FY2023E EV/Sales.

Ford: Staying The Course

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Ford Motor Company’s recent selloff likely provides a lucrative entry point.
  • Ford’s robust second quarter earnings paired with a positive output gap in the U.S. speaks volumes.
  • Ford possesses high-quality characteristics, lending it the latitude to blossom as credit spreads recede.

Amid Slow ROE Improvement, Calls for Stronger Shareholder Returns Will Become Even Stronger

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Modest profit growth and slow ROE growth are expected this year, and sustained TOPIX appreciation in the future will depend on increases in ROE and ROE+DOE.
  • Lower OP Margin is the reason for the lack of ROE growth in FY3/2023. OP Margin and ROE are expected to have difficulty rebounding from this year’s profit forecast.
  • Looking at the results of DOE, Total Dividends Paid and Dividend Payout for FY3/2023, which have not improved, there is still a lot of room for shareholder returns.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Hotel Shilla, Li Ning, Accor SA, Wynn Macau Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hotel Shilla Pref: Discount Vs Common to Narrow and Boost from Chinese Group Tours to Korea
  • Li Ning (2331 HK):  Low Quality Earnings Beat
  • Accor Hotels – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 11 Aug 2023


Hotel Shilla Pref: Discount Vs Common to Narrow and Boost from Chinese Group Tours to Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • Hotel Shilla, one of the largest operators of duty free shops in Korea, will be a major beneficiary of the return of the group tours from China to Korea.
  • We expect the consensus to raise the company’s sales estimates in 2024 to 2025 by about 3-7% and net profit estimates by 20-25%+ in this period. 
  • Currently, Hotel Shilla Pref/Common stock price ratio is 0.61 which is 22% below the five year average of 0.78. 

Li Ning (2331 HK):  Low Quality Earnings Beat

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Li Ning (2331 HK) reported today a headline beat on 1H23 results, with sales up 13% yoy and net profit down 3% yoy.
  • Both numbers are around 5% better than the already low market expectations. 
  • However, a closer look at the results shows that the quality of the beat is low. 

Accor Hotels – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Accor Hotels’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


Weekly Wrap – 11 Aug 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Longfor Properties
  3. Sino-Ocean Group
  4. China SCE
  5. Sunny Optical Technology Group

and more…


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Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group Holding , LG H&H, Beenos Inc, Wynn Macau Ltd, Taste Gourmet, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Colgate Palmolive Co, Church & Dwight Co, Lkq Corp, PTT Oil & Retail Business and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 1Q24, Brilliant Result After Reorganization, 90% Upside
  • LG H&H – A Key Beneficiary of the Return of Chinese Group Tours to Korea
  • Beenos: Ramps Up Buybacks
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Sino-Ocean Service, Wynn Macau Ltd
  • Taste Gourmet : Strong Q1 FY24 In The Bag, H1 FY24 and Future Looking Solid
  • The Fruit of TSE Market Reorganization Was the Creation of Prime Market with 600 Fewer Companies
  • Colgate-Palmolive Company: Strong Sales
  • Church & Dwight Co. Inc.: What Are Its Biggest Growth Catalysts? – Financial Forecasts
  • LKQ Corporation: Can The Strategic Partnership With Mobivia Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers
  • Earnings Review – PTT Oil and Retail Business Plc. (OR)


Alibaba (9988 HK): 1Q24, Brilliant Result After Reorganization, 90% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • The revenue growth rate rose to 14% in 1Q24, compared to the past four stagnant quarters.
  • All businesses continued to improve their margins, so that the general operating margin rose to 19% in 1Q24 versus 12% in 1Q23.
  • We believe the re-organization is successful and the stock price is overly impacted. Buy.

LG H&H – A Key Beneficiary of the Return of Chinese Group Tours to Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we lay out the thesis that LG H&H is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the return of Chinese group tours to Korea. 
  • LG H&H consistently generated more than 1 trillion won in operating profit from 2018 to 2021.
  • We expect LG H&H to generate 1 trillion won or more in operating profit in 2024 and 2025, which would be 20-25%+ higher than current consensus estimates in this period. 

Beenos: Ramps Up Buybacks

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Beenos revealed a ¥300m buyback plan in 2QFY23 and recently declared a ¥500m buyback in 3QFY23. This incremental buybacks is likely to continue due to disposal of incubator investments.
  • The cash balance of 34% of total assets and over 49% of market cap, supports the ongoing buyback trend even if incubator divestments take longer than expected.
  • Hence, we expect Beenos Inc (3328 JP)’s Holdco discount to move closer to the 20% mark, potentially resulting in a 75% upside in the short term.

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Sino-Ocean Service, Wynn Macau Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Taste Gourmet : Strong Q1 FY24 In The Bag, H1 FY24 and Future Looking Solid

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported its Q1 FY24 with revenues up 47% YoY and core profits up 349% YoY.  We believe that the company will report stronger revenues in Q2.
  • The restaurant count increased from 39 to 42 by the end of Q1 FY24 for HK. As of the latest date, the company has 46 restaurants in HK. 
  • The company also had 126.5 mn HKD of net cash at the end of Q1 FY24 (vs 118 mn HKD in FY23), almost 20% of the current market capitalization. 

The Fruit of TSE Market Reorganization Was the Creation of Prime Market with 600 Fewer Companies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The number of companies that announced their intention to move to Standard Market has increased to 48, while most of 268 transitional companies are expected to move to Standard Market.
  • Companies that cannot meet Prime Market listing criteria in 2026 can also move to Standard Market by undergoing examination, so they don’t need to announce their move in a hurry.
  • Prime Market has slimmed down from TSE 1st Section by 600 companies, but it will remain market where many companies with market capitalization of about 50 billion yen are listed. 

Colgate-Palmolive Company: Strong Sales

By Baptista Research

  • Colgate-Palmolive Company delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • The company produced a decent performance in terms of organic sales growth.
  • In addition to increasing its gross margin, Colgate-Palmolive also increased its operating margin.

Church & Dwight Co. Inc.: What Are Its Biggest Growth Catalysts? – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Church & Dwight Co. delivered a strong result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • In Q2, the laundry business performed well dollar and unit share, Church & Dwight ended the quarter as the fastest-growing laundry detergent, liquid detergent, unit dosage detergent, and aroma booster manufacturer.
  • ARM & HAMMER Liquid Laundry detergent increased its share by 90 basis points.

LKQ Corporation: Can The Strategic Partnership With Mobivia Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • LKQ delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below Wall Street’s expectations but managed an earnings beat.
  • Despite the headwinds from various macroeconomic conditions, the company’s core segments demonstrated resilience, showcasing the strength of its business model and operational excellence initiatives.
  • The North American and European segments collectively accounted for around 90% of the total component EBITDA, reflecting the success of LKQ’s diversification strategy.

Earnings Review – PTT Oil and Retail Business Plc. (OR)

By Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

  • OR delivered a 2Q23 NP of Bt2.76bn (-58% YoY, -7% QoQ), in line with our projection of Bt2.77bn.
  • The core profit marked at Bt2.56bn in 2Q23 (-59% YoY, -15.5% QoQ).
  • Its core earnings were pressured on a YoY basis by the mobility business, whose gross margin per liter narrowed to Bt0.96/liter in 2Q23 (vs. the high base of Bt1.61/liter in 2Q22).

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Daily Brief Consumer: L’Occitane, Hotel Shilla, Invocare Ltd, Universal Entertainment, Coupang , Li Auto , 4imprint and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): HK$35 Offer from the Controlling Shareholder?
  • China to Finally Allow Group Tours to Korea and Japan?
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Ripe for a Makeover?
  • InvoCare Agrees To TPG’s Lower Offer
  • InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$12.70
  • Universal Entertainment: Pivoting Our Bullish Focus to Basic Verticals from Okada Casino Only
  • [Coupang (CPNG US, SELL, TP US$14.4) TP Change]: Margin Beat Due to Higher 3P Spend on Ads and FLC
  • [Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$57)TP Change]: MEGA Is the Next Catalyst…Reiterate as Our Top Pick
  • 4imprint Group – Record H123 customer demand


L’Occitane (973 HK): HK$35 Offer from the Controlling Shareholder?

By Arun George

  • According to Bloomberg, L’Occitane (973 HK) is set to receive a HK$35 per share privatisation offer from Reinold Geiger, the Chairman and the largest shareholder.
  • The rumoured price is attractive and represents an all-time high share price. Therefore, Acatis KVG, the shareholder with a blocking stake, would be supportive.
  • The rumoured price implies multiples at a discount to peer multiples, which explains Mr Geiger’s ambitions for a possible European listing to secure higher valuation multiples. 

China to Finally Allow Group Tours to Korea and Japan?

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past several days, there have been numerous new flow that the Chinese government is likely to allow group tours to South Korea and Japan in the coming days. 
  • The group tours from China to South Korea which has been banned since March 2017, are expected to resume after six years, according to the Korean Embassy in China.
  • Nikkei Asia also reported on 9 August that the Chinese government is ready to allow group tours to Japan as early as this week.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Ripe for a Makeover?

By David Blennerhassett

  • In late 2018, there were reports that French beauty retailer L’Occitane (973 HK) had drawn interest from Advent International. That rumour came to naught. 
  • Similarly, late last month, L’Occitane clarified media reports that it had not received any Offer or proposal. 
  • After going into a trading halt this morning, reportedly (Reuters) Chairman Reinold Geiger has been discussing a possible offer of ~HK$35 for each L’Occitane share he doesn’t already own.

InvoCare Agrees To TPG’s Lower Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After pitching a A$13/share NBIO on the 15 May, TPG has now inked a Scheme Implementation agreement with InvoCare (IVC AU) at A$12.70/share, inclusive of a A$0.60/share fully franked dividend. 
  • This compares to PE-outfit TPG’s A$12.65/share NBIO on the 7 March – which Australia’s leading funeral services provider InvoCare promptly rejected.  
  • A comparatively benign flu season, and an expected ~10% decline in 1H23 EBITDA, largely account for InvoCare’s change of heart.

InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$12.70

By Arun George

  • Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) has entered a SID with TPG at A$12.70 per share, a modest -2.3% discount to the previous non-binding offer of A$13.00 per share.
  • The price cut was justified by a trading update which noted a challenging near-term macro-environment and softening in market volumes. The median peers’ share prices have also derated.
  • The offer requires shareholder, FIRB and OIO approval. At the last close and for the end of November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.8% and 5.7%, respectively. 

Universal Entertainment: Pivoting Our Bullish Focus to Basic Verticals from Okada Casino Only

By Howard J Klein

  • We have been covering UE for five years principally because we were bullish about its intentions to bring its Manila casino business public.
  • Our focus has shifted. We see the casino IPO as inevitable but we like the stock now because it has performed well in its core Pachinko and media businesses post-covid. 
  • If the Okada casino deal gest past current legal issues it would be a catalyst “bonus” to holders who come into the stock now, on a slight dip.

[Coupang (CPNG US, SELL, TP US$14.4) TP Change]: Margin Beat Due to Higher 3P Spend on Ads and FLC

By Shawn Yang

  • CPNG reported C2Q23 top-line, adjusted EBITDA, and GAAP net profit in-line, 45%, and 102% vs. our estimate, and 2%, 27%, and 49% vs. consensus, respectively.
  • Product commerce EBITDA margin rose 2ppts QoQ, which offset the 126% QoQ increase to developing offerings losses, which rose due to increased investment in its Taiwan business.
  • Given improved product commerce profitability, we raise our TP to US$ 14.4, but maintain SELL to reflect the impact of China e-commerce on CPNG.

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$57)TP Change]: MEGA Is the Next Catalyst…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

By Shawn Yang

  • Li Auto reported solid 2Q23 results, with both top line beating cons/our est. by 5.3%/3.6% and GPM of 21.8% beating cons/our est. by 1.1/1.7ppt.
  • We reiterate that capacity ramp-up is the key for Q3/Q4 delivery. Q3 sees a temporary capacity bottleneck albeit this is likely to be resolved in Q4.
  • We expect the launch of MEGA BEV in 4Q23 to be the next catalyst. We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick and raise TP due to better-than-expected margin outlook.

4imprint Group – Record H123 customer demand

By Edison Investment Research

4imprint’s interim results reflect the narrative at last week’s trading update, being strong underlying demand, an uptick in gross margin as the supply chain bottlenecks ease and strong returns on each dollar of marketing spend. Having upgraded following the update, we have now ‘tidied up’ our modelling for FY23 and FY24. With the buy-in of the legacy defined benefit pension and the accelerated recovery contributions, plus payment of the special dividend, we expect 4imprint to end FY23 with net cash of around $72m. This gives plenty of firepower to support continued growth, helped by a likely project in FY24 to extend the Oshkosh distribution centre. The group is clearly outperforming its market and building (profitable) share.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Zomato, Fancl Corp, Invocare Ltd, The Walt Disney Co, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Zomato Lock-Up – A US$650m+ Worth Acquisition Linked Lockup Release
  • Fancl: Not Out of the Woods Yet
  • InvoCare (IVC AU): SID Signed with TPG at A$12.7/Share
  • Disney’s Q3 2023 Earnings: A Pivotal Quarter To Appease Investors And Analysts
  • Gender Wage Gap Has Structural Problems and a Less than Positive Attitude of Companies


Zomato Lock-Up – A US$650m+ Worth Acquisition Linked Lockup Release

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Aug 2022, Zomato completed the acquisition of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These issued shares will come up for lockup release on 10th Aug 2023.
  • Zomato is one of two leading food delivery app operators in India. Its acquisition of Blinkit marked its foray into the instant grocery segment.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.

Fancl: Not Out of the Woods Yet

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Fancl released 1QFY24 results last week. While revenue was broadly in line with consensus at ¥27.2bn (consensus ¥26.9bn), OP beat consensus by around 27% to generate an OP of ¥3.2bn.
  • While there were certain performance improvements in the flagship brands “FANCL” and “ATTENIR” during FQ1, there are no definitive signs that they are completely out of trouble.
  • Meanwhile, it looks like competition has affected Fancl Corp (4921 JP)’s plan to cut advertising costs. Thus, FY24 OP guidance could be under pressure.

InvoCare (IVC AU): SID Signed with TPG at A$12.7/Share

By Brian Freitas

  • Invocare has entered into a scheme implementation deed with TPG at A$12.7/share. This is higher than the initial offer of A$12.65/share but lower than the revised offer of A$13/share.
  • There is an extra A$0.26/share in franking credits for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) shareholders that can use them.
  • Passives will need to sell nearly 11m shares of Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) on the last trading day and there will be an adhoc inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 Index.

Disney’s Q3 2023 Earnings: A Pivotal Quarter To Appease Investors And Analysts

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • The main focus will remain on Direct-to-Consumer profitability, but areas such as the recently announced restructuring plan and pricing power in parks & experiences also deserve attention.
  • The main focus is on the company’s Direct- to- consumer profitability.
  • It has been three months since my latest update on The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) when I highlighted a number of reasons why the company is finally in a good position to deliver on its bottom line figures.

Gender Wage Gap Has Structural Problems and a Less than Positive Attitude of Companies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • To narrow the gender wage gap for all workers, reducing non-regular female workers, who make up the majority, is a possible solution, but changing this structure will not be easy.
  • Many companies recognize that the low ratio of female managers (about 10% among listed companies) is behind the gender wage gap among regular workers.
  • However, many companies aren’t taking immediate actions because they believe that % of female managers will increase as the age of newly hired female full-time hires in recent years increases.

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