Category

Consumer

Daily Brief Consumer: Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry, Hang Seng Index, Li Auto , Miniso and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): J-STAR’s JPY1,137 Tender Offer
  • EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY LONG: Support Levels and Probability
  • [Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$55) TP Change]: Witnessing Consolidation…Reiterate as Our Top Pick
  • [Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$26) TP Change]: Shifting from Value- To Interest-Based Retailer


Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): J-STAR’s JPY1,137 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)/YSK has recommended J-STAR’s tender offer of JPY1,137 per share, a 35.0% premium to the undisturbed price (4 August).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • YSK is cash rich, and the offer is below book value. The tender offer is a reasonable alternative in challenging trading conditions that have slashed operating margin targets. 

EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY LONG: Support Levels and Probability

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed down last week (CC=-1), briefly touching OVERSOLD territory, it may close higher this week. 
  • The HSI trend pattern currently identified with the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM) is quite bullish, on average.
  • Support levels to go LONG are between 19367 (Q2/Median) and Q3 at 19021.

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$55) TP Change]: Witnessing Consolidation…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Li Auto to report 2Q23 top line and GPM 2.3%/in line vs. cons. We think Li Auto’s share gain in Q1/Q2 reflects market consolidation.
  • Our channel check found its weekly order intake remains robust at ~10k. We expect the capacity ramp-up to lead to Q3 delivery of ~100k, 12% vs. cons. 
  • We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, due to 1)  strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 2) margin upside. Li’s MEGA BEV could be the next catalyst.

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$26) TP Change]: Shifting from Value- To Interest-Based Retailer

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect MNSO to report C2Q23 revenue 4.6% higher than cons and non-GAAP NI in-line with cons. The beat is due to strong sales from larger ticket size &store expansion.  
  • We think the brand upgrade strategy had effectively drove up Miniso stores’ blended ASP, combined with mild recovery of foot traffic, leading to 46% YoY growth in China revenue.
  • Besides, we anticipate 37% YoY growth in oversea revenue and 43% YoY growth in total revenue in C2Q23. We maintain Buy rating and raise TP by US$0.5 to US$26.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Mercari , Hershey Co/The, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, STAR50, NIFTY NEXT50, SF Holding
  • The Hershey Company: 5 Essential Lessons from Their Recent Performance – Financial Forecasts
  • Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.: Collaboration with La Colombe & Other Major Developments
  • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.: 3 Reasons Behind Their Recent Growth! – Financial Forecasts


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, STAR50, NIFTY NEXT50, SF Holding

By Brian Freitas


The Hershey Company: 5 Essential Lessons from Their Recent Performance – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • The Hershey Company delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed earnings beat.
  • The categories continued performing pretty well, with consumer demand for every great-tasting snack staying quite buoyant across the globe.
  • Advertisements, as well as related consumer marketing expenses, increased.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.: Collaboration with La Colombe & Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Keurig Dr Pepper delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • The consolidated results of the quarter were quite healthy, with strong revenue momentum and sequentially accelerating EPS and income growth.
  • In the CSD category, Dr Pepper gained market share, strengthened by the success of Strawberries and Cream and the continued momentum of Dr Pepper Zero Sugar.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.: 3 Reasons Behind Their Recent Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Royal Caribbean managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.
  • During the quarter, the company delivered an increase in the number of vacations and saw good guest satisfaction scores.
  • For Royal Caribbean Cruises, new hardware has been quite a great differentiator enabling it to attract new customers into its vacation ecosystem and drive quality demand.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Ferrari N.V., iShares MSCI ACWI ETF, Taste Gourmet, Toyota Motor, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, MGM China Holdings, Oriflame Investment Holding PLC, O’Reilly Automotive, AdTheorent and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ferrari (RACE US) Q2 2023: The Perfect Fisher Framework Stock That Keeps Executing
  • Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys
  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK)
  • Toyota to Ramp Up Electric Car Push in China With R&D Revamp
  • Increasing Attention to the Role Played by Individuals in the Rising Trend of Stock Ownership
  • Weekly Wrap – 04 Aug 2023
  • Oriflame – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: Continued Store Additions & Other Factors Driving Growth! – Financial Forecasts
  • UPDATE NOTE – AdTheorent Holding Company, Inc.


Ferrari (RACE US) Q2 2023: The Perfect Fisher Framework Stock That Keeps Executing

By Sameer Taneja


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States’ credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
  • We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
  • $TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we’d buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US

Taste Gourmet (8371 HK)

By Oriental Value

  • With that out of the way, let’s dive into Taste Gourmet, a catering group listed in the secondary market (or GEM board) of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
  • Catering is usually a business with little moat, characterised by low barriers to entry. 
  • While some brands are widely recognizable, humans generally want to devour something different each day, therefore it is an everyday struggle for restaurants to stand out among competition.

Toyota to Ramp Up Electric Car Push in China With R&D Revamp

By Caixin Global

  • Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest car seller, has announced plans to consolidate its research and development (R&D) resources in China and ramp up its focus on electric vehicles (EVs), as it attempts to revive stalling sales in the highly competitive market.
  • The Japanese automaker said on Monday it would change the name of its largest R&D facility in China from Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing (China) Co. Ltd. to Intelligent ElectroMobility R&D Center by TOYOTA (China) Co. Ltd., and consolidate engineers from its three China ventures into the newly named facility based in Changshu, Jiangsu province.
  • Among other plans, it would also strengthen local development of electrified vehicles (EVs) including battery, hybrid and plug-in hybrid models and accelerate the development of an electric powertrain with its two biggest suppliers, Denso Corp. and Aisin Corp., the company said.

Increasing Attention to the Role Played by Individuals in the Rising Trend of Stock Ownership

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The percentage of stockholdings by individuals will continue rising. Their tendency to buy-on-decline will continue to serve as a cushion in times of falling stocks as well as voting behavior.
  • Now that the BOJ’s ETF purchases have subsided, an increase in trust bank stock holdings is not expected. A limited increase in pension assets is also expected.
  • The reduction in cross-shareholdings has reduced the shareholding ratio of corporations to 19.6%. Meanwhile, corporations repurchased total of 5,790.7 billion yen in FY2022, indicating that share repurchases have taken root.

Weekly Wrap – 04 Aug 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Geely Auto
  5. First Pacific Co

and more…


Oriflame – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Oriflame’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its “Adequate” Social and Governance scores. The company has a “Strong” score for the Environmental pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.
  • Oriflame is a global beauty direct seller that markets its products through 3.1 mn members across 60 countries.

O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: Continued Store Additions & Other Factors Driving Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • O’Reilly Automotive managed to exceed the revenue as well as earnings expectations of Wall Street driven by strength in consumption and a robust increase of 16% in diluted earnings per share.
  • Strength in the ticket count comps, particularly in the company’s professional business was a great contributor to the outperformance.
  • We give O’Reilly Automotive a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

UPDATE NOTE – AdTheorent Holding Company, Inc.

By Water Tower Research

  • 2Q23 revenue of $37.6 million was above consensus of $36.4 million.

  • The challenging advertising market conditions have continued but EPS of $0.09 was significantly ahead of consensus of a loss of $0.01.

  • The company (which has no debt) has more than $73 million in cash and reaffirmed its full-year guidance.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Takara Holdings, KT&G Corporation, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Comcast Corp Class A, MGM China Holdings, Pointerra Ltd, Greggs PLC and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Takara Holdings Trading “Rich”
  • KT&G: First Shares Cancellation in 14 Years
  • Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Comcast Corporation: Notable Advancements On The Xfinity X1 Platform! – Key Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, MGM China Holdings, Vedanta Resources
  • Pointerra Ltd – Q4 Cash Collection Hit by Short-Term Delays
  • Greggs – Improving outlook for costs in FY23


StubWorld: Takara Holdings Trading “Rich”

By David Blennerhassett

  • On an implied stub and simple ratio, Takara Holdings (2531 JP) is trading rich to 60.9%-held Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP).
  • Preceding my comments on Takara are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

KT&G: First Shares Cancellation in 14 Years

By Douglas Kim

  • KT&G announced that it will buy back 3.47 million shares (2.5% of outstanding shares) and cancel them. This would be the first share cancellation for KT&G in 14 years. 
  • If the company’s DPS is 5,200 won for 2023 fiscal year, this would represent dividend yield of 6.2% at current prices.
  • Although we have a positive view on KT&G’s share buyback and cancellation of 3.47 million shares, the company could do much more to improve its shareholder returns to its shareholders. 

Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Melco Resorts (MLCO)’s H1/23 results were soft, mainly as its Macau properties underperformed in Q1. That said, the company regained some market share in Q2, as GGR from its Macau properties climbed 43% q-o-q. Q2/23 mass market GGR reached 84% of the Q2/19 level, albeit still marginally below the industry figure of 86%. We expect MLCO’s mass market GGR in Macau to continue improving going forward, supported by the opening of Studio City Phase 2.

In our view, the main credit concern is the company’s aggressive stance towards shareholder returns. This is evidenced by MLCO’s small share repurchases throughout the COVID-19 pandemic (between FY 2020 and FY 2022), despite its severely deteriorated balance sheet. Moreover, the company has a history of providing cash support to parent Melco International.


Comcast Corporation: Notable Advancements On The Xfinity X1 Platform! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Comcast Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.
  • Total revenue increased, driven by ongoing operating leverage at the company’s high-margin Connectivity & Platforms business as well as significant growth at studios and theme parks.
  • Residential connectivity revenue increased with growth in domestic broadband, wireless revenue, and international connectivity.

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, MGM China Holdings, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Pointerra Ltd – Q4 Cash Collection Hit by Short-Term Delays

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pointerra Ltd (ASX:3DP) provides a powerful cloud-based solution (Pointerra3D) for managing, visualising, analysing, using and sharing massive 3D point clouds and datasets.
  • Pointerra3D is a proprietary digital twin SaaS platform which delivers predictive digital insights and definitive answers to complex physical asset management questions.
  • The Pointerra3D suite of solutions spans target sectors including survey and mapping; architecture, engineering and construction (AEC); utilities; transport; resources and defence and intelligence. 

Greggs – Improving outlook for costs in FY23

By Edison Investment Research

Greggs’ H123 results showed continued strong revenue growth, indicating good progress across the majority of its multi-year initiatives to drive revenue growth. Profitability continued to be hampered by input cost inflation as well as investment in the cost base to drive the expected revenue growth. A more favourable outlook for underlying cost inflation in FY23 than previously should be welcomed. We have slightly increased our estimates to reflect the strong growth in H123 and higher interest rates on cash deposits.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Times Neighborhood, Luckin Coffee, Hanwha Galleria , Rakuten Group , Taste Gourmet and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Country Garden Services (6098 HK): 1H23 Profit Warning A Good Read-Across For The Sector
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$43) TP Change]: Economies of Scale Brings Margin Improvement
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #23: Hanwha Galleria (Deep Value + Five Guys + Chairman’s Son Buying)
  • 2 Rakuten Subsidiaries’ Listings Run Counter to the Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary Listings
  • Taste Gourmet: Q1 FY24 Preview, Another Strong Quarter in the Making


Country Garden Services (6098 HK): 1H23 Profit Warning A Good Read-Across For The Sector

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Country Garden Services (6098 HK) announced a profit warning for 1H23 last night, expecting sales to increase by 3-4% yoy and net profit to see a 0-10% drop yoy.
  • The company also announced the intention to repurchase up to 10% of total shares outstanding. 
  • Share price up +18% following the profit warning and share buyback announcement – a good read-across for the rest of the sector that will report interim results later this month. 

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$43) TP Change]: Economies of Scale Brings Margin Improvement

By Shawn Yang

  • Luckin Coffee reported 2Q23 revenue beat our est. by 7.5%, and non-GAAP NI beat our estimate by 84.1%. 
  • The top-line beat is driven by stronger product sold on average store sales, the bottom-line beat is driven by economies of scale and less than estimated sales promotion.  
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP by US$5.5 to US$43/ADS (27x PE in 2023) to factor in the outlook of sustainable margin improvement.

Korea Small Cap Gem #23: Hanwha Galleria (Deep Value + Five Guys + Chairman’s Son Buying)

By Douglas Kim

  • Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS) is the 23rd company in our Korea Small Cap Gems series. 
  • Hanwha Galleria is a spun-off company from Hanwha Solution. Hanwha Galleria’s shares have declined 39% since being relisted on 31 May 2023. 
  • Hanwha Galleria is a deep value stock with undervalued real estate assets. Chairman’s son is also buying aggressively and there is a big catalyst for Five Guys launch in Korea. 

2 Rakuten Subsidiaries’ Listings Run Counter to the Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary Listings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Cash generation through the subsidiaries’ IPOs will only buy time, and investors are likely to focus on when Rakuten will move to solve the problems in its cell phone business.
  • In recent years, TSE’s market reorganization has focused attention on parent-subsidiary listings, and there’ve been moves to convert listed subsidiaries into wholly owned subsidiaries or sell subsidiaries to other companies.
  • For Rakuten, subsidiary IPOs are an essential means of raising cash, but TSE’s recognition of the governance issues involved in parent-subsidiary listings raises questions about Rakuten’s two parent-subsidiary listings.

Taste Gourmet: Q1 FY24 Preview, Another Strong Quarter in the Making

By Sameer Taneja

  • We estimate Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) to deliver 39% YoY revenue growth and about 13% YoY profit growth (adj 350% YoY) for Q1 FY24e, to be declared on August 10th.
  • The company is expected to go ex-dividend on the 4th of August and pay out a 5.2-HK cent final dividend by the 24th of August for FY23.  
  • Trading at 6x FY24e PE /20% of the market capitalization in cash and a 9-10% dividend yield ( based on a 50-60% payout ratio) represents a great investment opportunity.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Sheng Siong, Haidilao International Holding, ASICS Corp, Water Oasis, General Motors, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, 4imprint, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, British American Tobacco and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Another Resilient Quarter, Cash Pile Growth Continues
  • China Catering Sector: Positioning for Interim Results
  • Asics (7936) | Q2 Preview; Guidance Revision
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – August 2023
  • General Motors Company: A Story Of Sales in Premium Variants! – Key Drivers
  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: Can The New Extended Stay Brand Catalyze The Recovery? – Key Drivers
  • 4imprint Group – Strong order intake and upgrades
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill: Efficiency Boost From Increasing Restaurant-Level Automation To Boost Future Margins? – Key Drivers
  • Japfa Comfeed – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • British American Tobacco PLC ADR: Major Drivers


Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Another Resilient Quarter, Cash Pile Growth Continues

By Sameer Taneja

  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP) reported another resilient quarter with revenue growth at 4.7% YoY and profit growth flat, with annualized ROCEs at 27%. 
  • Net cash grew to 289 mn SGD (highest ever now at 12% of market capitalization). The company is expected to expand by 3-4 stores in FY23 for Singapore.
  • While the stock is not cheap at 19x/18x FY23e/FY24e and 3.8% dividend yield, we see prospects for margin expansion in further quarters as execution remains high quality.

China Catering Sector: Positioning for Interim Results

By Eric Chen

  • Positive profit alerts from both Jiumaojiu and Haidilao reflect strong gain in operating efficiency but also point to looming growth deceleration as brands mature.
  • We see valuation more reasonable due to a combination of sector de-rating in 1H23 and higher visibility into earnings recovery post these profit alerts.
  • Yum China remains best long-term play in China catering sector in our view. While both Haidilao and Xiabuxiabu present trading opportunity, we are still cautious about Jiumaojiu.

Asics (7936) | Q2 Preview; Guidance Revision

By Mark Chadwick

  • Asics is due to report on 8th August. We expect another strong quarter and guidance revision
  • Recent results from Nike bode well for Asics – declining inventories and strong top line performance in China
  • We believe that higher operating margins will be the key stock driver and see 10% upside to fair value

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – August 2023

By Sameer Taneja


General Motors Company: A Story Of Sales in Premium Variants! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • General Motors exceeded Wall Street expectations in terms of revenue and earnings.
  • With solid pricing and incentive discipline, they have now provided higher retail marketer results for four straight quarters in the United States.
  • We give General Motors a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: Can The New Extended Stay Brand Catalyze The Recovery? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hilton Worldwide delivered an all-around beat in the last quarter, exceeding expectations with strong results.
  • The company’s solid fundamentals, industry-leading brands, and strategic partnerships continue to drive its growth.
  • With a high number of signings and a robust development pipeline, Hilton is poised for continued expansion in the coming quarters.

4imprint Group – Strong order intake and upgrades

By Edison Investment Research

Ahead of 4imprint’s interim results, scheduled for 9 August, the company has issued a half-year trading update indicating performance running well ahead of market expectations for the full year. This is in terms of volumes, gross margin, profitability and cash. The May AGM statement had also been very positive, but there was greater uncertainty at that time whether the buoyant conditions would persist and we held our forecasts. We have now lifted our revenue and earnings estimates for FY23 and FY24 and adjusted for the pension buy-in, announced in July. 4imprint is clearly outperforming its market and has plenty of scope to continue to build (profitable) share.


Chipotle Mexican Grill: Efficiency Boost From Increasing Restaurant-Level Automation To Boost Future Margins? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Chipotle delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result with revenues falling short of Wall Street expectations but above-par earnings.
  • The rise in Chipotle’s overall revenue was driven by an upsurge in comparable restaurant sales and also new restaurant openings.
  • Lately, Chipotle announced its foremost development pact with Alshaya Group for opening several restaurants in the region of Middle East.

Japfa Comfeed – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Japfa Comfeed’s H1/23 results remained weak, with a large drop in profitability on account of an oversupply of poultry, higher raw-material costs and lower consumer demand. While there was sequential improvement in Q2, the overall H1 results remained significantly weaker y-o-y. The company’s financial risk profile continued to deteriorate, while liquidity worsened.

We revise our LARA on Japfa to “High Risk” from “Medium Risk”, given the company’s quickly deteriorating liquidity profile and increasing leverage. The inadequate liquidity position and fast-rising leverage are no longer in line with that of a “Medium Risk” credit. 


British American Tobacco PLC ADR: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • During the last quarter, BAT showed a decent performance with growing revenue, profit, and earnings per share.
  • The focus on New Categories has been successful, with revenue from non-combustibles increasing significantly.
  • By prioritizing sharper execution and responsible New Category development, BAT aims to navigate regulatory challenges.

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Daily Brief Consumer: CJ CGV Co Ltd, Sula Vineyards , Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Oriental Watch, Cinema XXI, SCG Decor PCL, Spdr Portfolio High Yield Bo, Costa Group Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 40 Companies in Korea in August 2023
  • Narrative and Numbers | Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) | FY23
  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Yoghurt Sticks and Meatballs
  • Rather More Proposals that Have to Be Considered for or Against on a Qualitative, Case-By-Case Basis
  • Oriental Watch (398 HK): Strong Data Points for H1 FY24, 14% Yield + >50% Mkt Cap in Cash
  • Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO Trading – Should Be a Steady Listing
  • SCG Decor Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • SPHY ETF: Rare Opportunity For Price Gains
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2023: Costa Group, Pacific Current, IMAX, Takisawa Machine Tools, Yachiyo


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 40 Companies in Korea in August 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 40 stocks in Korea in August 2023, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 38 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 40 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in August and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 40 stocks, the top five market cap stocks include HK inno.N, PhilEnergy, CJ CGV Co Ltd, Sure Soft Tech, and CanariaBio.

Narrative and Numbers | Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) | FY23

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) is one of the leading wine producers in India.  
  • Focus on premiumization, market leadership, and industry prospects are attractive. 
  • However, high working capital, recent resignations, and customer concentration along with market’s high valuations make it a watch-list candidate.

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Yoghurt Sticks and Meatballs

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) remains one of the most interesting and dynamic staple players in Indonesia, with a leading position in yoghurt and growing strength in consumer foods. 
  • CMRY continues to achieve strong top-line growth of +21% in 1H2023, with consumer foods driving growth and 50% of sales but we expect dairy to see better performance in 2H2023. 
  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) continues to invest in marketing through digital channels, including TikTok. Valuations remain attractive relative to its growth prospects, with more than 20% 3-year EPS CAGR.

Rather More Proposals that Have to Be Considered for or Against on a Qualitative, Case-By-Case Basis

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Domestic investment managers are expected to show a higher percentage in favor of shareholder proposals, but life insurances still face a high hurdle in voting in favor of shareholder proposals.
  • It is relatively easy to decide for or against a proposal based on quantitative criteria such as the level of ROE or whether there are zero female directors.
  • Few institutional investors adequately disclose the reasons for approval or disapproval of individual proposals. Disclosure of reasons for approval or disapproval is required for company proposals that are controversial.

Oriental Watch (398 HK): Strong Data Points for H1 FY24, 14% Yield + >50% Mkt Cap in Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) cycled into favorable comps for April-June 2023 owing to COVID-related closures in China in 2022 for the same period. 
  • Another favorable data point was the Emperor Watch & Jewellery (887 HK) positive profit alert for H1 FY23 ( Jan-Jun 2023), where the company guided >100% net profit growth. 
  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) trades at 6.9x FY24e, with more than 50% of the market cap in cash and a ~100% payout ratio resulting in a 14% dividend yield. 

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO Trading – Should Be a Steady Listing

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cinema XXI raised around US$150m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing at the bottom-end.
  • Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

SCG Decor Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • SCG Decor PCL (SCGD TB) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
  • SCG Decor (SCGD) is Siam Cement Group’s core company in the decor surfaces and bathroom business.
  • Primarily operating via its subsidiaries, the firm is a manufacturer of floor and wall tiles domestically and abroad, including ASEAN markets such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia.

SPHY ETF: Rare Opportunity For Price Gains

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Key indicators suggest the SPDR® Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF might benefit from price returns in the coming quarters.
  • Investors will soon “down credit” and “down duration” amid receding market risk premiums coupled with an improving U.S. current account, we say.
  • Today’s analysis covers the SPDR® Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:SPHY), which is a U.S.-centric high-yield corporate bond exchange-traded fund, or ETF, managed by State Street Global Advisors.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2023: Costa Group, Pacific Current, IMAX, Takisawa Machine Tools, Yachiyo

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of July 2023, 6 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2.2bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in July was 40%. The average YTD is 36%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Prosus NV, L’Occitane, Astra International, Dali Foods Group, Kenvue , Nayuki Holdings, Archer Daniels Midland Co, Trip.com, Coca Cola Co, Kimberly Clark and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Prosus: The More Things Change…
  • Weekly Deals Digest (30 Jul) – L’Occitane, Dali, Eoflow, Toshiba, Pacific Current, Estia
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – Increasingly Omnipresent
  • Dali Foods (3799 HK): 23 August Scheme Meeting. IFA Says Fair
  • Kenvue (KVUE US): Q2 Result Beats Estimates; Initiated 2023 Guidance; J&J Launches Exchange Offer
  • [Nayuki (2150 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.3) TP Change]: Store Operating Profit Margin Improvement On-Track
  • Archer-Daniels-Midland Company: Catering To The Rising Demand For Health Products! – Key Drivers
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)
  • Coca-Cola Company: Are They Winning The Gen Z Market? – Key Drivers
  • Kimberly-Clark Corporation: Winning the Race in Key Markets Worldwide? – Major Drivers


Prosus: The More Things Change…

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Prosus looks to continue to cut its stake in Tencent by 2-3% every year to fund its open-ended share buyback program.
  • Evidence would suggest that the buyback is set to continue at a relatively steady pace for the foreseeable future, which should support the discount to NAV going forward.
  • The simplification of the shareholding structure, to remove the cross-holding, could sustainably reduce Prosus’ discount to NAV by roughly 10%.

Weekly Deals Digest (30 Jul) – L’Occitane, Dali, Eoflow, Toshiba, Pacific Current, Estia

By Arun George


Astra International (ASII IJ) – Increasingly Omnipresent

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) released a solid set of numbers in 1H2023, with growth across most of its divisions from autos to heavy equipment, and infrastructure.
  • 1H2023 was marked by a series of acquisitions across growth areas of the Indonesian economy including nickel, digital health, data centres, and classifieds.
  • Astra International remains our top proxy pick for exposure to Indonesia, with recent acquisitions making the company all the relevant in new areas of growth.

Dali Foods (3799 HK): 23 August Scheme Meeting. IFA Says Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 27 June, Dali Foods Group (3799 HK), announced a privatisation Offer by way of a Scheme from its founder/chairman/CEO Xu Shihui.
  • The cancellation price, which has been declared final, was HK$3.75/share, a decent 37.87% premium to undisturbed.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out. The Scheme Meeting is the 23 August. Xu and concert parties control 88.89%, therefore a blocking stake is 1.11% of shares out. 

Kenvue (KVUE US): Q2 Result Beats Estimates; Initiated 2023 Guidance; J&J Launches Exchange Offer

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kenvue (KVUE US) reported 5% YoY revenue growth to $4B in 2Q23, driven by continued demand of self-care portfolio, mainly consisting of cough, cold, and allergy, and pain care products.
  • The company has guided for 4.5–5.5% revenue growth and EPS of $1.26–1.31 for 2023. Kenvue has declared a cash dividend of $0.20 for 3Q23.  
  • J&J is offering its shareholders the option to exchange shares for Kenvue’s at a 7% discount. The exchange offer is scheduled to close on August 18, 2023.

[Nayuki (2150 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.3) TP Change]: Store Operating Profit Margin Improvement On-Track

By Shawn Yang

  • Our 1H23 revenue estimate is 8.7% lower than consensus, and we expect 1H23 NPM at breakeven vs. consensus at 5%。
  • Mainly because teahouse brands in China had suffered the intensified competition from the price war in Coffee industry.
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating as the margin improvement process is gradual showing effect, while we lower TP by US$2 to US$9.3 to reflect the intensified competition pressure.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company: Catering To The Rising Demand For Health Products! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Archer-Daniels-Midland delivered a mixed result in the recent quarter, with revenues below market expectations, but it surpassed the analyst consensus in earnings.
  • The company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.89 and an adjusted segment operating profit of $1.6 billion.
  • ADM’s team expects continued strength in Brazil’s origination, solid biofuel demand, and resilient food demand, leading them to raise their earnings expectations for 2023.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June
  • Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month
  • What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks

Coca-Cola Company: Are They Winning The Gen Z Market? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Coca-Cola delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarter results.
  • Despite geopolitical tensions and the elevation in global inflation, Coca-Cola delivered 11% organic revenue growth.
  • Plant-based beverages, value-added dairy, and juice have delivered double-digit top-line growth and also gained both volume share and volume.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation: Winning the Race in Key Markets Worldwide? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kimberly-Clark delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues below analyst expectations but managed an earnings beat.
  • The company delivered strong organic growth across all segments.
  • Significant progress was made on margin recovery, leading to increased adjusted gross margin, operating profit, and earnings per share.

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Daily Brief Consumer: MOG Holdings, Dali Foods Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT
  • Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the PCOMP INDEX in August.
  • There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), STAR50 INDEX, the NIFTY family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.
  • There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August

By Arun George

  • Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)‘s scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 23 August. The IFA considers the HK$3.75 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. 
  • Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • Sector sentiment has modestly weakened. This looks done. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.6% and 34.8%, respectively.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Ford Motor Co, Garrett Motion, Pointerra Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Unilever and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • US Mutual Funds: Is Ford Motor Company Uninvestible?
  • GTX: Turbocharging Shareholder Value
  • Pointerra Ltd – Selected for a 10-Year US Energy CAPEX Programme
  • Employee Stock Compensation Plans Need to Be Designed to Increase Employee Engagement
  • Unilever PLC: How Are The Growth Prospects Of This Consumer Goods Behemoth? Drivers


US Mutual Funds: Is Ford Motor Company Uninvestible?

By Steven Holden

  • US Mutual Fund exposure in Ford Motor Company hits all-time lows with just 11 out of 295 funds holding a position.
  • Ford Motor Company is now the 6th most widely held Auto stock after Tesla, General Motors, Rivian Automotive, Harley Davidson and Oshkosh Corp.
  • Ford tops the list of unloved companies in the US, with the vast majority of active managers expecting Ford to underperform.

GTX: Turbocharging Shareholder Value

By Hamed Khorsand

  • GTX reported better than expected second quarter results with improvement in the overall marketplace for light-weight vehicle production.
  • GTX reported sales of $1.0 billion compared to our forecast of $982 million. The higher revenue figure resulted in GTX generating adjusted EBITDA of $170 million
  • Current business conditions remain supportive of GTX operating at an efficient manner to generate optimal operating margin resulting in greater free cash flow

Pointerra Ltd – Selected for a 10-Year US Energy CAPEX Programme

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pointerra Ltd (ASX:3DP) provides a powerful cloud-based solution (Pointerra3D) for managing, visualising, analysing, using, and sharing massive 3D point clouds and datasets.
  • Pointerra3D is a proprietary digital twin SaaS platform which delivers predictive digital insights and definitive answers to complex physical asset management questions.
  • The Pointerra3D suite of solutions spans target sectors including survey and mapping; architecture, engineering and construction (AEC); utilities; transport; resources and defence and intelligence. Pointerra has announced that it, together with its US engineer, procure and construct (EPC) partners, have been chosen by existing customer US energy giant Entergy (NYSE:ETR) for its 10- year, US$15b grid resilience CAPEX programme. 

Employee Stock Compensation Plans Need to Be Designed to Increase Employee Engagement

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Employee motivation is reflected in the fact that employee salaries have barely increased in 10 years (employee engagement in Japan has been 5% for four consecutive years).
  • First, employee salaries must be increased. Even during deflation, the consumption tax has been raised twice in the past decade, and the national burden rate has also increased.
  • When introducing employee stock compensation plan, it will be necessary to make sure that the plan is not only designed to supplement employee pay, but also to increase employee engagement.

Unilever PLC: How Are The Growth Prospects Of This Consumer Goods Behemoth? Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Unilever had a decent performance in the recent quarterly result with revenues above Wall Street expectations.
  • Its strong performance in the first half of 2023 resulted from increased investment in its brands and the creation of new capabilities.
  • In Beauty & Wellbeing and Personal Care, the company observed a decent balance between price and volume.

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