Energy & Materials Sector

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• The trend of stockpiling in the US has continued, and copper inventories in warehouses surged to over 436,000 tons. Inventories at the seven COMEX warehouses have more than tripled YTD. 
• Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton supply issues detailed provide the perfect confluence for copper to breach 13,000 USD/ton by early 2026. 
• As copper has recently surpassed 11,500 USD/ton, we pick Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) as our top equities to play the copper run.

• Crude oil futures were steady on the week but up  from Monday’s lows after US-Russia talks failed to find a breakthrough, while growing optimism on a US rate cut also helped to bolster sentiment.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at  $63.71/b (2041 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.26/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $60.07/b against a previous close of $59.67/b.
• Benchmarks recovered from early-week lows, rebounding around 2% after negotiations between the US and Russia in Moscow broke off without a deal to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

• There were further updates on the Simandou iron ore mine, which commenced operations last week, igniting bearish sentiment and taking iron ore prices down 3% WoW to 103 USD/ton.
• Demand, though, for higher-grade material remains strong, resulting in a widening spread between 65 and 62 Fe to almost 16 USD/ton (from 12-13 USD/ton a week ago). 
• We favor Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for its high growth profile and potential to increase production from 1.5 million tons to around 10 million tons. 

• The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the December 2025 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 5th December 2025. 
• There are 20 ADDs and 20 DELs collectively for ASX 50, ASX 100, and ASX 200.  We got 19/20 predictions correct.
• In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.

• ConocoPhillips’ third-quarter 2025 results reflect a solid performance marked by strategic shifts and ongoing projects that could influence future financial outcomes.
• The company reported production of 2,399,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance and generating $1.61 per share in adjusted earnings.
• Operational efficiency is evidenced by decreased capital expenditures at $2.9 billion, and robust cash flow from operations amounting to $5.4 billion.

• Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. reported its fiscal year 2025 fourth-quarter results, reflecting a nuanced performance with both advancements and challenges.
• For the year, earnings per share reached $12.03, slightly above the midpoint of their full-year guidance.
• This suggests the company met its commitments despite facing a challenging economic environment.

• PPG Industries’ third-quarter 2025 results provide a mixed picture of the company’s current performance and future prospects.
• On one hand, the company achieved a 2% increase in organic sales growth, marking the third consecutive quarter of volume growth despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
• PPG’s global reach and strong commercial execution contributed to share gains, particularly in its Industrial Coatings segments with automotive OEM and packaging coatings, as well as in its Performance Coatings segment, which saw robust growth in aerospace and protective and marine coatings.

• TotalEnergies reported strong financial results in the third quarter of 2025, demonstrating its commitment to a multi-faceted growth strategy.
• The company’s two-pillar focus on expanding its oil and gas production and enhancing downstream operations yielded significant benefits, even amidst a challenging pricing environment.
• On the positive side, TotalEnergies achieved impressive growth in its upstream segment.

• Wheaton Precious Metals presented its third quarter 2025 financial and operational results, projecting both accomplishments and challenges on its path forward.
• The streaming company reported record figures in revenue, earnings, and cash flow, catapulting it toward the upper end of its financial objectives for the year and underscoring its focus on long-life, low-cost assets.
• On the positive side, Wheaton’s notable performances from key assets such as Salobo and Antamina, as well as the initiation of production at Blackwater and Goose, resulted in the production of 173,000 gold equivalent ounces for the quarter.

• Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. delivered a robust performance in the third quarter of 2025, highlighted by record production levels in both liquids and natural gas.
• The company achieved a total production of approximately 1.62 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, signifying a substantial 19% increase compared to the same period the previous year.
• This notable performance was driven by strategic organic growth initiatives and accretive acquisitions, specifically including the acquisition of a 100% interest in the Albian oil sands mines, enhancing Canadian Natural’s oil sands portfolio and boosting production levels.

• EOG Resources showed strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, bolstered by strategic acquisitions and operational excellence.
• The recent acquisition of Encino is a significant milestone for the company, diversifying its production base and enhancing its free cash flow potential.
• The acquisition is seen as a strategic move, adding a high-return asset to EOG’s portfolio, which now includes foundational assets in the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, and Utica, along with emerging plays like Dorado and Powder River Basin.

• Central banks have been buying gold since after the GFC to diversify from US Dollars, underpinning the market with tightness
• Gold bull markets have been influenced by periods of conflict and economic stability, with central banks playing a significant role in influencing the price
• The second gold bull market starting around 2000 saw the gold industry aggressively buying back their hedges, pushing the price up alongside central bank buying and market forces

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• Quiet trade across Hong Kong Single Stock this week with HSI’s weekly range near the lows of the year.
• Implied vols were mixed and are still clinging to the lowest levels of the year.
• Options activity lower week over week, led by declines in Put trading.

• Dominant Market Leader with Strong Growth: Impack Pratama is a clear leader in the Indonesian plastic building materials sector, holding an estimated 90% market share in polycarbonate roofing and 70% in uPVC roofing. This dominance is translating into exceptional financial performance, with 3-year CAGRs for revenue and net income at 20.30% and 36.94%, respectively.
• Favorable Industry Tailwinds: The Indonesian construction market is poised for steady growth, driven by government infrastructure spending, urbanization, and a rising middle class. Projections indicate a market expansion of 5.48% to 7.50% annually, creating a robust demand environment for IMPC’s products.
• Premium Valuation Reflects Quality, But Poses Risk: The company’s strong performance and market position command a high valuation, with a P/E ratio of 37.2x. While justified by its growth trajectory, this premium makes the stock susceptible to shifts in market sentiment and earnings disappointments. The low dividend yield and inconsistent payout history may also deter income-focused investors.

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• Simandou’s arrival and softer mill output signal a clear shift toward weaker near-term demand, even as some investors position for policy surprises.
• Technical signals point to stretched momentum, with the broader setup now tilting toward elevated odds of a near-term mean-reversion pullback.
• The 65–62 spread climbed sharply this week, while the 62–58 spread moved lower, marking a notable divergence across grade differentials.

Highlights

• ENSO Conditions to be Neutral to Negative, But Not Falling to La Nina

• Session at COP30 Focuses on Smallholders in Climate Action

•  Integrating Climate Resilience into Production Systems Not Optional

  Dr. S. Abhilash, Director, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, India, warns the Indonesia and Malaysia regions of above normal rainfall in December that can impact rubber supply as well.

• What you need to know: • CAPT announced an updated MRE at its Capitan Hill Oxide Gold Deposit.
• • The resource increased from 305Koz Au in 2020 to 525Koz today, and today’s resource is pit-constrained.
• • Two-thirds of the 2025 15,000m drill program is complete, with only one-third of the assay results released.

• Operations remain strong with volume rising and revenue up on the continued rise in uranium prices in Q3/25, although the metal has cooled in Q4/25 
• Domestic macro remains a drag on the valuation, with the NBK hiking its base rate 1.5% in October 2025 to combat rising inflation, boosting our discount rate significantly   
• After over a 40% rise since June 2025 our valuation is now about -20% below the current price, although the P/B still looks low, especially versus Cameco’s surging multiple

• BPSL JV gives JFE a scalable India platform, shifting long-term growth away from a stagnant Japan market.
• Balance-Sheet impact is manageable, with optional liquidity from the ¥500 bn JSW stake.
• Valuation deeply discounted at 0.5× P/B and US$525/t despite rising mix, India optionality, and multi-year earnings normalization.

• Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.
• Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.
• Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.

• The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970’s and mid-2000s commodity bull market
• Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
• A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets

• Olin Corp. is a leading, vertically integrated global manufacturer of chemical products and ammunition, operating through its Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy, and Winchester segments.
• The company is navigating a challenging petrochemical environment by focusing on a U.S.-centric sales strategy and prioritizing cash generation and shareholder returns, which has allowed it to outperform peers.
• Financial performance has been under pressure, with declining revenue and net income over the past three years, reflecting weak demand, low prices, and higher input costs in the broader chemical sector.

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• Isamu Paint is a specialized Japanese manufacturer with a primary focus on high-quality automotive refinish paints, complemented by industrial and architectural coatings.
• The company exhibits solid financial health, characterized by consistent revenue and net income growth over the past three years, alongside a strong balance sheet indicated by a high resilience score.
• Valuation appears attractive, with the company trading at a significant discount to its larger peers on key metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA, suggesting a potential value opportunity for investors.

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• KNOT Offshore Partners received a non-binding privatization proposal at $10/unit, with historical MLP buyouts often resulting in higher offers.
• Golden Entertainment’s Chairman bids to acquire the company at 1x EBITDA, with activists pushing for better terms.
• Yext’s Chairman and CEO proposed a non-binding privatization offer at $9/share, inviting competing bids for potential price increases.

• Malaysia Smeltings Corp (MSC) is a leading global integrated tin producer, with operations spanning both upstream tin mining and downstream tin smelting. Its strategic shift to the modern, more efficient Pulau Indah smelter is a key catalyst for margin improvement and reduced environmental impact.
• The company’s financial performance is intrinsically linked to volatile global tin prices. While recent years have seen fluctuations in profitability, the long-term demand outlook for tin is robust, driven by its critical role in electronics, renewable energy (solar panels), and electric vehicles.
• MSC is focused on enhancing operational efficiency and expanding its mining output. The consolidation of smelting operations at the new Pulau Indah facility and the potential expansion of its mining footprint are expected to be key drivers of future growth and profitability.

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• Tecnicas Reunidas is strategically positioned to capitalize on the global energy transition, with a growing focus on low-carbon technologies, LNG, and decarbonization projects, which are expected to be significant long-term growth drivers.
• The company has demonstrated a strong operational turnaround, evidenced by a record backlog of €11.5 billion as of September 2025 and a significant increase in revenue and profitability, signaling a robust recovery and strong earnings visibility.
• While the company’s pivot to higher-growth areas is promising, it faces inherent risks tied to the cyclicality of the energy sector, intense competition, and the challenges of executing large-scale, complex projects with potential for cost overruns and delays.

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• Crude oil futures on Thursday were climbing higher, as benchmarks maintained the firmer start to December, albeit amid conflicting signals.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.31/b (2033 GMT) versus Wednesday’s settle of $62.67/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $ 59.72/b against a previous close of $58.95/b.
• Prices have found some support this week from the fading prospects of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the broader rise in geopolitical tensions, but it has not been enough to shake off the gloom around a growing surplus.

• Ambuja Cements (ACEM) has raised its FY28 capacity target to 155 million tonnes per annum and secured the acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ (JAL) cement business.
• This aggressive scale-up, underpinned by a target cost reduction of INR 550/t and a green power push, is expected to drive EBITDA to INR 15000/t over FY26-28E.
• ACEM’s integrated strategy of inorganic growth and operational efficiency suggests a strong re-rating potential, justifying a deeper review of core fundamentals.

• The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the open of 3rd December 2025 and announced after the close of 5th December 2025.

• CMOC (603993 CH) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) will replace S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Bank of Jiangsu (600919 CH) in the ETFs at the close on 19 December.
• Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.5 days of ADV in the constituent changes.
• The adds have outperformed the deletes by a big margin over the last 6 months. After a period of underperformance in November, the adds have started moving higher again.

• Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from Perseus Mining (PRU AU) at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.
• The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the Robex Resources (RBX CN) merger transaction.
• Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. 

• Henry Hub surged on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stayed soft due to tepid demand. Weather and LNG flows now drive a volatile winter spread.
• The Henry Hub–TTF spread faces exceptional uncertainty, shaped by diverging regional fundamentals. Henry Hub remains sensitive to U.S. forecast shifts, while TTF is anchored by strong EU storage.
• With weather driving short-term volatility, the spread remains highly unpredictable. Even steady U.S.–Europe LNG flows offer only partial stability as shifting forecasts and regional imbalances continue to reshape price dynamics.

Highlights

• Indonesian rubber exports worth over US$250 million in Sept

• Asia drives demand as US tariffs mellow to pave the way

• Prices firm but volatility persists with weather risks and soft demand

  Though the major consumer, China, tracked impressive increases in August and September compared to July, September witnessed a decline from the second-highest levels of the year in August, in both value and volume.

• Blue Gold Limited (BGL) has set out to create and distribute the world’s first global gold-backed digital currency, the Standard Gold Coin (SGC).
• Launch is planned for Q1 2026.
• The company intends to support the SGC with its own digital wallet (the One App), with launch planned for Q3 2026.

• Targa Resources Corporation’s third quarter 2025 earnings call presents a mixed yet optimistic picture of the company’s current performance and future trajectory.
• On one hand, the company posted record adjusted EBITDA and achieved substantial growth in NGL and natural gas volumes, primarily driven by increased activity in the Permian Basin.
• This places Targa on track to reach the top end of its annual guidance for 2025.

• Sealed Air Corporation delivered a mixed set of results that reflected both progress in its multiyear transformation and continued pressure from global macroeconomic trends.
• The company reported modest top-line performance, with third quarter sales of USD 1.35 billion increasing slightly on a reported basis but declining marginally in constant currency.
• Adjusted EBITDA rose mid-single digits, supported by cost controls and productivity gains despite slightly lower volumes and negative net price realization tied to inflation in labor and nondirect materials.

• AptarGroup, Inc.’s third-quarter earnings call highlighted several key aspects of its performance and strategic direction.
• The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.62 and a 6% increase in reported sales, with core sales growth of 1% year-over-year.
• The Pharma segment exhibited strength, particularly in proprietary drug delivery systems for central nervous system applications, asthma, COPD, and ophthalmic treatments.

• Furukawa Electric is looking to sell around US$128m of Uacj Corp (5741 JP.
• The deal is a big one, representing 23.3 days of three months ADV and 5% of outstanding stock.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• The index changes for the December 2025 rebal will be based on the close of 2nd December 2025 and announced after the close of 3rd December 2025.
• Based on the current numbers, we see one change for the F100 index and four changes for the F250 index in December 2025.

• On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) announced scrip-merger with Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU). Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.
• Immediately, rumours circled in local media that Perseus Mining (PRU AU), PDI’s largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. 
• Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.

• Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.
• Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore. 
• Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.

• APA Corporation’s third quarter results highlight a period of operational success and financial prudence, balanced with the backdrop of a challenging global environment.
• They demonstrated strong operational performance across all key regions, with production exceeding guidance, while maintaining lower-than-expected capital investment and operating costs.
• In the Permian Basin, APA Corporation saw oil production surpass guidance due to efficient operations, while the capital costs stayed in line with the expectations, demonstrating a well-managed portfolio and resilient strategies.

• ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf (P90–P50–P10 cases).
• The new mean prospective resource of 619 bcf reflects the increased upside potential for the permit.
• Individual prospect sizes range between 37–111 bcf (P50 case), with four prospects each estimated at 60–68 bcf (P50).

• NLCIL has outlined a transformative Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex plan and guided to a 42% PAT growth from FY26E to FY28E.
• This dual-pronged strategy balances India’s persistent base-load thermal power need with an aggressive pivot towards 10 GW of renewable energy by FY30.
• The substantial planned capacity additions and robust financial guidance suggest NLCIL is poised for material earnings expansion, necessitating a fresh look at long-term valuation multiples.

• Getchell reported assay results from one hole at Fondaway Canyon, testing the northwest strike extension of the Colorado SW Zone.
• Highlights include 5.8 g/t Au over 19.0m, 1.4 g/t Au over 23.6m, and 2.2 g/t Au over 11.2m, extending the zone by ~70m to the NW.
• This is part of the 10-hole 2025 program; assays pending on two holes.

• Chugoku Marine Paints (CMP) is a leading global supplier of marine coatings, holding an estimated 20% of the global market and a dominant 60% share in Japan. The company is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth trends in the maritime industry, driven by increasing global trade and stricter environmental regulations.
• The company has demonstrated an exceptional financial turnaround, with three-year compound annual growth rates for net income and EPS soaring to 277% and 283%, respectively. This is attributed to optimized pricing, sales of higher value-added products, and strong demand in the ship repair market.
• Forward-looking, CMP is focused on leveraging its core antifouling paint technology to meet rising demand for fuel-efficient and environmentally compliant coatings. While the outlook for new ship builds is expected to moderate, the ship repair segment and expansion into industrial paints provide avenues for continued growth.

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• Crude oil futures were moving sideways to lower Tuesday as geopolitical tensions bumped up against nagging concerns over a 2026 supply glut.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at $62.38/b (2010 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $63.17/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $58.62/b against a previous close of $59.32/b.
• Benchmarks steadied early in the week after OPEC+ confirmed the decision to leave Q1 production unchanged, but have struggled to hold gains amid the oversupply concerns.

• The gold rush continues with another Canadian outfit bidding to take over an Aussie-listed West African gold play. 
• Junior miner African Gold (A1G AU)has entered into a Scheme with Montage Gold (MAU CN). African Gold shareholders will receive 0.0628 new MAU shares for every A1G share.
• That backs out an implied value of A$0.50/share. Independent directors, holding 11.6% of shares out, are supportive. Montage holds 17.3%. Clean deal.

• The speaker discusses their interest in an intriguing South Australian undeveloped copper stock called Havilah (HAV)
• The speaker shares their initial encounter with the company in 2022 and their impression of its potential value and optionality of assets

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• QGold’s hostile takeover offer for Venus Metals at A$0.17/share is expected to increase, with VMS stock trading at A$0.195/share.
• VMC’s assets in Rox Resources are valued at A$46m, with a 1% net smelter royalty potentially undervalued due to outdated assumptions.
• Christopher Wallin’s QGold has acquired a 26% stake in VMC and a 9% stake in Rox Resources, indicating strategic interest.

• Both precious and industrial metals jumped significantly up over the past week. Gold, Silver, Platinum and also Palladium are currently basically in the same trading regime.
• Copper looks a bit different but also bullish, after breaking an H&S pattern to the upside, providing both systematic and discretionary investors with a great setup.
• Bintas built Trafigura’s copper book into the world’s largest. Now at Mercuria, he’s driving a major expansion into metals.

• The record INR23,500 Cr order book, anchored by a structural demand shift for US data center gas pipelines, validates the company’s large-scale global capex strategy in the US and KSA.
• The pivot from cyclical line pipes to stable B2C (Sintex) and structurally funded growth drivers (Vision 2030, AI energy) fundamentally de-risks the earnings profile and warrants a higher valuation multiple.
• With net cash and improving ROCE, WCL is transitioning from a cyclical steel player to a quality infrastructure compounder; investors should focus on the strategic segment mix and execution speed.

• Crude oil futures opened firmer after weekend events, including an attack on the key Black Sea port and OPEC+ maintaining its no change policy for Q1, which improved sentiment.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.23/b (2003 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $63.40/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $59.43/b against a previous close of $58.55/b.
• Benchmarks strengthened as CPC suspended crude loadings at Novorossiysk early Saturday after an unmanned-boat strike tore into one of its offshore moorings, the latest in a string of attacks on the Black Sea export hub.

• What you need to know: • Gold held strong in the low-$4,000/oz range (rising at the end of the month), silver extended its rally with an 18.5% increase, while copper capped off the month above $5.25/lb.
• • Mining equities rebounded sharply in November, with the GDX (+15.5%), GDXJ (+16.6%), SILJ (+16.7%), and COPX (+4.1%) massively outperforming broader indices (S&P 500 +0.4%, TSX +3.8%).
• • Policy momentum improved as the U.S. added copper and silver to its critical minerals list, G20 leaders opposed export restrictions, and Canada signalled support for equity positions in mining projects.

• KNOT Offshore Partners received a $10/unit take-private offer; potential for improved bid due to unitholder approval requirement.
• Golden Entertainment’s chairman offers at 1x EBITDA; shareholder approval could lead to a 15%+ price increase.
• TrueCar’s founder-led buyout at $2.55/share; 26% shareholder support; deal expected to close by early 2026.

• Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks from Nov 21 to Nov 27, with a S$552 million outflow.
• Engro Corporation Chairman Tan Cheng Gay increased his interest to 25.01% by acquiring 11,870,000 shares at S$0.725 each.
• Sanli Environmental proposed a placement of up to 38,492,404 shares at S$0.260 each, raising up to S$10,008,025.

• MTT confirmed near-surface gold at Fournier Lake with assays up to 2.11 g/t Au, marking the first follow-up since the 2023 discovery and validating the zone’s structural potential.
• MTT expanded its land position by staking an additional 8,829ha.
• Rocky Brook now spans 28,024ha and sits along 30km of the Rocky Brook-Millstream Fault, beside Kinross-Puma’s Property.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
• Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)‘s stock price has continued to move higher and is likely to be added to the index in December.
• Stock moves over the last month have shrunk the capping trade massively. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.8% and the round trip trade is US$1.75bn.

• Pure-Play, Low-Cost Producer with Ambitious Growth: Sigma Lithium is a new, low-cost producer of high-purity, environmentally friendly lithium concentrate from its single asset, the Grota do Cirilo project in Brazil. The company is aggressively expanding, with plans to more than triple production capacity by the end of 2026, positioning it as a significant player in the EV battery supply chain.
• Leveraged to a Volatile but Recovering Lithium Market: The company’s profitability is highly sensitive to lithium prices, which have been volatile after collapsing from 2022 highs. While the market has been oversupplied, projections suggest a tightening supply-demand balance from 2025 onwards, driven by robust EV and energy storage growth, which could provide significant tailwinds.
• High-Risk, High-Reward Equity Profile: As a single-asset company in an emerging market with a short operational history, Sigma carries significant execution and geopolitical risks. However, its industry-leading cost structure, strong ESG credentials, and aggressive, funded expansion plan offer substantial upside potential for investors with a high-risk tolerance.

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• Spain’s Ministry of Economy has validated the CNMC’s conditional approval of Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid, removing all regulatory risk and shifting the focus entirely to CNMV processing, acceptance, and deal execution.
• Ercros’s deteriorating fundamentals and thin liquidity heighten shareholder-acceptance uncertainty; ~75% tender is required, while prior minority opposition and elevated trough-cycle multiples complicate the risk-reward despite regulatory de-risking.
• With shares at €3.30, the spread has compressed to ~6%, offering a short-dated carry trade with a 45–55% annualised IRR if settlement occurs by February 2026, versus a €2.56 break.

• Crude oil futures Friday were little changed although Brent tested weekly highs as doubts grow on the prospects for a Russia-Ukraine settlement.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at $63.33/b (1854 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.34/b, but off from the week’s high of $63.76/b.
• Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $59.21/b , after trade resumed following a technical glitch.

• Murphy Oil Corporation’s third quarter 2025 earnings report indicates a mix of robust operational results tempered by strategic caution amid market volatility.
• The company surpassed its production guidance for the second consecutive quarter, reaching a total production of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day.
• This was bolstered by a strong showing in oil production, averaging 94,000 barrels per day.

• Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far.  Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this year.
• Technology and healthcare sectors have dominated IPOs with the materials sector also floating several large listings.  With nearly 300 listings in the pipeline, 2026 should be another banner year.
• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , Chery Automobile (9973 HK) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) were the largest IPOs of the year while PegBio (2565 HK) has had the best return.

• Semiconductor segment drives structural margin expansion, now contributing over 100% of core profit with record Q3 performance.
• Legacy Chemicals and Graphite remain weak, but consolidated EBITDA outlook for FY2026–27 strengthens on improving mix.
• Forward valuation supports ¥8,000 target; Resonac trades at a discount to global semiconductor-materials peers despite rising semis exposure.

• The third quarter of 2025 earnings report for Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LP) presents a mixed picture, reflecting both strategic advancements and ongoing challenges.
• On the positive side, LP’s Siding business showed resilience in a soft market, with a 5% increase in sales revenue driven primarily by pricing and a favorable mix.
• Notably, the ExpertFinish prefinished siding product, with a 17% increase in sales volume, has contributed significantly, buoyed by the successful launch of a new line of nature-inspired colors.

Highlights

• Malaysia’s NR output drops 14.8% MoM in September 2025

• Quarterly production rises 36.9% despite yearly contraction

• Market sentiment mixed amid EUDR delay reports and rate-cut hopes

Natural rubber production in September fell by 14.8% to 26,647 tons from 31,285 tons in August, marking a 16.3% year-on-year drop from September 2024’s 31,847 tons. The contraction came as a setback following a modest recovery in earlier months

• Daicel is notable for being Japan’s only manufacturer of acetic acid and for holding world-leading market positions in some cellulose-acetate products and in acetate tow for cigarette filters.
• At current prices, the dividend yield of the company is at a healthy 4.6%. Its dividend yield averaged 4.4% from FY2021 to FY2025.
• The company has enjoyed a solid sales growth of 10.5% CAGR from FY2021 to FY2025. Operating income nearly doubled from FY2021 to FY2025.

• Fenix Resources is a rapidly growing, fully integrated iron ore producer in Western Australia, leveraging its wholly-owned logistics and port infrastructure to unlock stranded assets and maintain high margins.
• The company’s recent acquisition of a 30-year mining right at the Weld Range project is transformational, securing a 290 million tonne resource base that significantly extends mine life and provides a clear pathway to scale production beyond 4 million tonnes per annum.
• While the company trades at attractive valuation multiples and is poised for significant cash flow growth, its earnings are highly sensitive to the volatile global iron ore price, which remains the principal risk to the investment thesis.

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• Albemarle Corporation’s Q3 2025 performance showcases several key dynamics that are influencing the company’s strategic and operational directions.
• The company reported a 7% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $226 million, despite facing challenges like lower lithium pricing.
• The net sales for the quarter were $1.3 billion, reflecting a decrease primarily due to the weakened lithium market, although partially offset by increased volumes in their Energy Storage and Ketjen segments.

• Kinetik’s third quarter 2025 results present a mixed scenario influenced by both strategic developments and challenges due to commodity market volatility.
• The company shows improvements on the operational front with the successful launch of the Kings Landing processing facility.
• This expansion in New Mexico bolsters Kinetik’s capacity and positions it to support increased production in the region.

• Permian Resources, a prominent player in the Delaware Basin, demonstrated strong operational performance in the third quarter of 2025.
• The company recorded its highest quarterly free cash flow per share despite a challenging commodity environment, showcasing robust execution across its operations.
• With production figures surpassing expectations—oil production rose 6% to 187,000 barrels per day and total production hit 410,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day—the company credits its success to effective deployment of its Texas development project.

• Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, delivering an adjusted EBITDA of $669 million.
• The company is continuing its strategic focus on becoming a leading North American pure-play crude midstream entity.
• A significant move in this direction is the pending sale of its Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) business, expected to conclude by the first quarter of 2026.

• Plains All American Pipeline’s recent earnings call sheds light on its strategic maneuvers and financial health as it aims to solidify its position as a premier crude midstream company.
• The company reported a solid third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $669 million, reinforcing the execution of its strategy focused on leveraging its asset base and maintaining disciplined capital management.
• The anticipated sale of Plains All American Pipeline’s Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) assets, scheduled to close early next year, marks a strategic shift to a more crude-focused portfolio.

• Revoil S.A. engages in the trading and marketing of petroleum products for use in cars, homes, and vessels in Greece.
• It offers gasoline, fuel oil, petrol, diesel and a range of lubricants for petrol engines, diesel engines, hydraulic systems, gear wheels, and outboard engines.
• The company also provides lamps, wind- screen wipers, car deodorants, and mobile accessories as well as car and moto wash, lubricant change, and other services. 

• Royal Gold’s third-quarter performance reflects a strategic expansion and strong financial results, highlighting both operational successes and potential challenges.
• The company reported record quarterly revenue of $252 million, driven by higher metal prices and increased production from key assets like Mount Milligan and Cortez.
• Gold continues to be the primary revenue driver, contributing 78% of total revenue.