Energy & Materials Sector

• The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
• Today is the base date for the December 2025 index rebal event and the expected ADDs/DELs discussed in this insight are our final index change expectations.
• We expect four changes for T50 and three additional changes for the T100 index for the December 2025 rebal.

• Gold prices have been steadily rising, with projections of reaching $10,000, possibly as soon as 2026.
• The recent surge in gold prices has attracted more institutional investors and retail buyers, especially in countries like Australia and China.
• The volatility in gold prices has also increased, with the potential for rapid gains as smaller percentage increases can lead to significant profits.

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• Strong gold demand in 3Q25, totaling almost 980 tons, leading to a surge in demand inflow
• Expectation of continued central bank buying and investor demand growth in 2026
• Bullish outlook for gold prices, with potential risks including rate sensitivity and potential tariff uncertainties for other precious metals

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Highlights

• Consumption outpaces domestic production growth

• Imports decline despite steady industrial demand

• Fresh probe into halobutyl rubber dumping

The first four months of the financial year illustrated an industry striving for balance — one still navigating between domestic self-sufficiency ambitions and dependence on imports for certain specialized grades. Demand from tire makers, which account for nearly two-thirds of synthetic rubber use in India, remained stable amid mixed trends in automotive production and exports. 

• Hornbeck operates one of the world’s largest high-spec offshore fleets, serving diversified markets including oilfield services, military support, and emerging offshore wind.
• Strong revenue growth and consistent profitability reflect resilient demand across deepwater energy, specialty services, and expanding non-oilfield markets.
• IPO prospects hinge on market timing and valuation, as energy-related offerings have produced mixed results in 2025.

• Crude oil futures tumbled on Friday as ceasefire speculation around the Russia/Ukraine war gained momentum after President Zelensky agreed to work with Washington on the US-drafted proposals.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.50/b (1933 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.38/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $57.99/b against a previous close of $59/b.
• President Zelensky said he is ready for “honest work” with the US after receiving a draft of the plan to end the war with Russia, although European officials have cautioned that the proposals are too one-sided in favour of Moscow.

• Ball Corporation’s third quarter 2025 performance indicates both strengths and challenges for the company, as per their recent earnings call.
• During this period, Ball Corporation reported a 4.2% growth in beverage can volumes and a 5.1% increase in comparable operating earnings.
• Comparable diluted earnings per share saw a 12.1% rise, while the company returned $1.35 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

• International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) presented its third-quarter results for 2025, showcasing a steady operational performance amidst challenging market conditions.
• The company maintained flat sales compared to the previous year, despite headwinds such as geopolitical challenges, macroeconomic uncertainty, and soft demand in certain sectors.
• Growth was observed in the Scent and Taste segments, counterbalancing weakness in Food Ingredients and Health & Biosciences, particularly in North America.

• The Mosaic Company’s third-quarter 2025 results showcase a complex financial landscape characterized by significant investments, strong regional performances, and strategic asset reallocations.
• The company reported a substantial increase in net income to $411 million compared to $122 million in the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $806 million from $448 million.
• This improvement was primarily driven by higher prices across all segments and particularly robust performance in Mosaic Fertilizantes.

Nabaltec’s numbers for the first nine months of 2025 (9M25) confirm resilient earnings in a weak demand environment. Group revenue declined 1.9% y-o-y to €155.1m, while EBIT fell 16.8% to €14.0m, with a nine-month EBIT margin of 9%. Guidance for 2025 is unchanged at up to a 2% revenue contraction and an EBIT margin of 7–9%. Although Q4 can be seasonally weak, given the nine-month results (with a Q3 EBIT margin of 10.3%) the full year guidance looks achievable in our view, and we see no reason to revisit our estimates or valuation. Nabaltec is controlling its costs as far as possible in a difficult demand environment, but it retains a conservative balance sheet and a number of growth options.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Iron ore prices have remained rock-solid at 104 USD/ton, but the fundamentals are on slightly shaky ground as Rio Tinto (RIO US) commenced shipments from its Simandou project. 
• Chinese steel production and apparent demand in October tracked an extremely weak 12%/12.5% YoY, with annualized production rates now 864 million tons, and lending (TSF) was lacklustre at -42% YoY.
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) despite the negative sentiment, due to its production growth profile from 4 million to 10 million tons over the next 3 years. 

• Despite an overwhelming response and a 26-30% surge in the grey market, at 8.3x FY26 PER,  Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)‘s IPO price does not generate much excitement for us. 
• Heavy reliance on connected transactions with the controlling shareholder, pressure on margins in the future, and a highly leveraged balance sheet are concerns. 
• We do not think it justifies trading at a premium to peers, hence, limited upside from now. The small free float, however, will increase the share price volatility.

• Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) raised around US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Copper inventory on the COMEX surpassed 400,000 tons on Friday, marking an increase of 330% from the beginning of the year, amidst speculation of a levy of tariffs.
• The Department of Commerce has issued a proclamation imposing a 15% tariff in 2027, with the rate increasing to 30% by 2028, implying a LME-Comex Spread of >3000 USD/ton.
• In addition to the sucking up of copper inventory into the US, we have supply shortages (see: Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton )

• The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.
• Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.
• At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.

• The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

• FY2025 operating profit sharply upgraded; earnings base rebased higher across FY2026–28.
• Engineered Materials accelerating with VSP™ and FaradFlex® capacity expansions; ~25–30% OP CAGR implied.
• Metals more resilient than expected; ¥50 bn buyback supports valuation despite recent re-rating.

• Simandou’s planned 120 Mt annual output could supply about 6% of global seaborne ore by 2030, pressuring Australia and Brazil and shifting premium-grade pricing.
• Despite Guinea’s push to diversify buyers, roughly three-quarters of Simandou’s ownership ties back to China, making most tonnage effectively committed to Chinese mills.
• Weak Chinese steel margins and a 12% YoY drop in October output limit near-term uptake, but long-term decarbonisation trends support stronger demand for high-grade feedstock.

• Future Metals NL is an exploration-stage company focused on its 100% owned Panton PGM-Nickel Project in Western Australia, which is considered the highest-grade PGM deposit in Australia.
• The Panton project has a significant JORC Mineral Resource Estimate of 4.5 million ounces of PGM and 185,000 tonnes of nickel, positioning it as a globally significant PGM resource outside of the primary supply jurisdictions of Russia and South Africa.
• While the project shows robust economics in a December 2023 Scoping Study, the company is currently pre-revenue and faces the typical risks of an exploration company, including financing, development, and commodity price risks.

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• Kinross Gold Corporation’s latest financial performance shows a blend of optimism and caution for investors.
• The company reported a strong third quarter, indicating an efficient operational execution across its global mining assets.
• Production was in line with expectations at approximately 504,000 ounces at a cost of sales of $1,145 per ounce.

• Martin Marietta Materials reported an impressive third quarter for 2025, marked by record performance across both aggregates and specialties, emphasizing the enduring strength of its business model and strategic focus.
• Aggregates revenues increased by 17% ($1.5 billion), with gross margins improving to 36%.
• The Specialties business also set records, achieving a 60% revenue increase to $131 million.

• Ovintiv’s recent quarterly earnings call provides a robust overview of the company’s strategic initiatives, financial performance, and future outlook as it continues to solidify its position as a leading North American independent oil and gas exploration and production company.
• From the information available, several key themes emerge, showcasing both strengths and areas requiring caution.
• Firstly, Ovintiv’s acquisition of NuVista Energy presents a significant strategic move.

Pan American Silver’s Q325 results saw the initial 27-day contribution from the recently acquired 44% interest in the Juanicipio project, which boosted its attributable silver production by c 10% and lowered the silver segment all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to an impressive US$15.4/oz. EBITDA adjusted for equity investment in the project was up 51% y-o-y and 11% q-o-q. We have upgraded our estimates on higher commodity prices and Juanicipio, raising our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation of PAAS from US$38.0/share to US$43.5/share. The company is also evaluating a two-stage development approach for Skarn to maximise the value of the combined deposit, which, in our view, is not yet full priced in by the market.

• Sailfish Royalty reported Q3 financial results, including revenue of $0.9M (vs. our estimate of $0.7M) and adjusted EBITDA of $0.4M (vs. our estimate of $0.2M).
• Spring Valley continues to progress with Wheaton Precious Metals entering into a $670M stream on the project.
• This places a premium valuation onto FISH’s Spring Valley royalties compared to our model.

• In today’s edition: • ABN Amro | announced further reduction of its flexible workforce • AkzoNobel | Cevian pledges support for AkzoNobel/Axalta merger • InPost | enters cross-border deal with Austrian Post for business customers • Unilever | said to be exploring the sale of three UK heritage brands • Corbion | targets adjusted EBITDA of approx. EUR 300m by 2028 • bpostgroup | renews contract with Amazon for 5 years

• PowerBank reported first-quarter results that exceeded our expectations on the top and bottom line.
• Quarterly revenues will remain uneven as the company transitions to become an independent power producer over the coming years.
• Near-term demand should remain strong in the US solar market ahead of the expiration of the solar investment tax credit, but the outlook is less certain beyond 2026.

• As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
• Pledging in those shares – in what I call the Prakitchaiwattana Complex – have been static, to down, in the month of October.
• Recent big-ish moves were seen in Siam City Cement (SCCC TB) (up), Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB) (up); Next Capital (NCAP TB) (down) and Banpu Public (BANPU TB) (down).

Highlights

• Choppy and rangebound price movement expected in November 

• Narrowing SIR 20 vs INE spread could encourage substitution

• September import and export trend diverged

• Downstream restocking was selective rather than programmatic, leaving spot premiums capped

• Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) has barred KEC from new tenders for nine months starting November 18, 2025, though ongoing Rs.39,000 crore plus projects is unaffected.
• KEC’s diverse orders limit PGCIL’s impact, PGCIL’s share in new orders is only 4% YTD, much lower than last year.
• KEC’s Q2 success counters the PGCIL ban. With strong Q2 results and 8% FY26 margin guidance, the focus is now on execution and cash flow from its global pipeline.

• Vedanta Resources is a globally diversified natural resources company with a strong foothold in India, focused on zinc, aluminium, oil and gas, and other base metals. The company is currently undergoing a significant strategic transformation, including a planned demerger of its primary businesses into separate listed entities to unlock value and attract investment.
• The company has been aggressively deleveraging its balance sheet, having reduced debt at the parent level significantly over the past few years. Recent credit rating upgrades from agencies like S&P Global reflect improved financial flexibility and easing refinancing risks, supported by strong operational cash flows and successful bond issuances.
• Future growth is centered on a $20 billion, four-year investment plan focused on India, targeting expansion in technology, electronics, and semiconductors, alongside its core commodities. This ambitious plan aims to capitalize on India’s economic growth but faces execution risks and is dependent on volatile commodity markets.

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• Bradespar is a Brazilian investment holding company whose primary asset is a significant stake in Vale S.A., one of the world’s largest mining companies. Consequently, Bradespar’s financial performance is directly correlated with Vale’s operational success and the global demand for iron ore and other base metals.
• The company’s strategy focuses on active participation in Vale’s management to influence long-term value creation. Bradespar’s revenue and net income are predominantly derived from the dividends and interest on equity received from its investment in Vale.
• As a holding company, Bradespar’s valuation is often traded at a discount to its net asset value (NAV), which is primarily composed of the market value of its stake in Vale. The company has a history of distributing a significant portion of its earnings to shareholders through dividends.

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• Zephyr has nominated ~38,000 net contiguous Paradox acres for inclusion in upcoming federal lease sales by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management.
• If fully awarded, this would represent a material expansion of the current 46,000 net acre position, of which only ~20,000 acres are currently covered by seismic.
• Existing estimates of ~35 mmboe 2P reserves and 39 mmboe contingent resources are based solely on those 20,000 acres.

• Crude oil futures closed slightly lower Thursday following another choppy session amid huge uncertainty around sanctions on Russia, plus a mooted peace deal.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.34/b (1953 GMT) versus the prior settle of $63.51/b, while Jan25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.01/b against a previous close of $59.25/b.
• Benchmarks again tested one-week lows on rising US inventories and reports that the US was brokering a Russia-Ukraine truce, a move that would lower the geopolitical risk premium.

Highlights

• Ambitious yield goals target 1120 kg/ha

• China still takes around three-quarters

• Replanting financing remains a pivotal constraint

Production and yield dynamics in 2025 show rubber remains one of Myanmar’s industrial cornerstone crops. Available estimates place annual output around 300,000-350,000 metric tons, out of a total plantation area of over 600,000 hectares.

• Eastman Chemical Company recently held a conference call to discuss its third-quarter results for 2025 and provided some insights into its strategies and expectations for 2026.
• The call highlighted both positive and challenging aspects of the company’s current performance and future outlook, offering a mixed view of the company’s standing in the market.
• The company faced notable challenges in the third quarter, attributed to several factors.

• Corteva Agriscience has reported its performance for the third quarter of 2025, showcasing a blend of strategic realignment and solid financial results.
• The company is planning a strategic separation into two independent public companies by the second half of 2026, dividing its Seed and Crop Protection businesses.
• The rationale behind this move is to enable each unit to optimize their individual growth trajectories amid evolving agricultural market conditions.

• Equity placing strengthens Hongqiao’s balance sheet, cuts refinancing risk, and supports Yunnan’s low-carbon capacity migration.
• FY25–27 forecasts updated: modest EPS dilution offset by lower interest costs and improved cash generation.
• Valuation remains discounted vs global peers despite first-quartile costs, rising renewable mix, and improving aluminium market fundamentals.

• Aussie gold and copper explorer GBM Resources (GBZ AU) has announced plans to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong.
• GBM has entered a memorandum of understanding with its major shareholder, Wise Walkers Limited, which will fund all listing-related expenses – to be repaid upon a successful listing.
• The listing is, ostensibly, to “broaden its investor base“; however Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s barnstorming IPO debut probably spurred on this development. 

• Context: The Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) vs. Woodside Energy Group (WDS AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) and short Woodside Energy Group (WDS AU) targets a 7% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Global oil outlooks diverged in November as the EIA cut demand forecasts, and the IEA lifted projections. However, both agencies expect supply to grow faster than demand.
• The EIA, IEA, and OPEC flag a rising risk of oversupply heading into 2026, noting that expanding production and already-elevated inventories could keep the market looser.
• Strong U.S. LNG exports prompted the EIA to raise its Henry Hub forecasts, signalling price strength will rely more on robust export demand than on domestic consumption this winter.

• KNOP received a $10/unit privatization offer from its general partner, trading at $9.8, with a special committee review underway.
• KNOP’s dividend was cut by 95% in 2023, despite improved charter activity and revenue growth, raising expectations for a dividend increase.
• KNOP’s closest peer, Altera Shuttle Offshore, was acquired with a valuation speculated to exceed KNOP’s current $1.3bn offer.

• We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.
• Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.
• At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.

• Diamondback Energy’s third quarter 2025 results reflect a nuanced position within the energy sector, particularly given the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties.
• The company continues to emphasize capital efficiency and conservative fiscal management, showcasing a 36% reinvestment rate with an aim to generate free cash flow over expanding cash flow operations.
• This cautious deployment of capital aligns with their broader strategy of maintaining financial flexibility and a low cost structure amidst a volatile oil price environment.

• Franco-Nevada Corporation reported record financial results in the third quarter of 2025, driven primarily by high gold prices, strong operational performance, strategic acquisitions, and the sale of Cobre Panama stockpiles.
• The financial metrics were robust, with total Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs) sold increasing by 26% year-overyear, and adjusted EBITDA rising by 81% to reach $427.3 million.
• Revenue rose by 77% to $487.7 million, with 85% being derived from precious metals.

HELLENiQ ENERGY delivered record sales volumes in the Refining business of 4.3Mt and a strong year-on-year and sequential improvement in Refining adjusted EBITDA to €264m in Q3. Realised refining margins improved to $17.2/bbl, from $13.8/bbl in Q225, and up from $10.9/bbl during Q324. Q325 group adjusted EBITDA doubled year-on-year to €365m, driven by improved uptime post the Elefsina turnaround, the stronger refining margins and robust international sales. The Marketing business reported record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of €68m, supported by volume growth in both domestic and regional markets, continued network footprint optimisation and improved operational efficiency. This was also the first quarter of full consolidation of Enerwave (formerly ELPEDISON). Group adjusted net income reached €186m and an interim dividend of €0.20 per share was declared.

• The Williams Companies has demonstrated a strong blend of strategic ventures and consistent growth in its recent operational and financial performance.
• On the operational front, The Williams Companies has successfully brought several key projects online, significantly increasing its infrastructure capacity.
• Noteworthy accomplishments include the completion of transmission projects such as the Northwest Pipeline’s Stanfield South project and multiple expansions within the Transco infrastructure, enhancing their daily natural gas capacity by nearly 200,000 dekatherms.

• Context: The BHP Group (BHP AU) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long BHP Group (BHP AU) and short Rio Tinto (RIO AU) targets a 4% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Surging U.S. LNG exports, stronger power demand, and shifting weather models have tightened fundamentals, driving Henry Hub futures to near three-year highs despite record output and above-average storage levels.
• Henry Hub’s rally since mid-October has been driven by record LNG exports and colder winter forecasts, which outweighed rising U.S. production and above-average storage levels.
• Options positioning shows short-term caution but growing medium-term optimism, with higher call interest across later contracts signaling expectations for firmer Henry Hub prices into early-2026.

• Jiangsu Lopal Tech is undergoing a significant strategic pivot from its traditional automotive fine chemicals business to the high-growth, yet volatile, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials market for electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
• This transition has fueled exceptional revenue growth but has also led to severe profitability challenges, with the company posting significant net losses and negative margins over the past two years, driven by raw material price volatility and intense competition.
• The company’s financial health is under pressure, evidenced by negative operating cash flow in recent periods and a net current liability position. Future success hinges on stabilizing LFP profitability, managing cash flow, and navigating the highly competitive dynamics of the EV supply chain.

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• Crude oil futures ended lower Monday despite rebounding from a soft start in response to reports crude loadings had resumed at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.09/b (2031 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $64.39/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI settled at $59.91/b against a previous close of $60.09/b.
• Ship tracking data showed two oil tankers had docked at Novorossiysk over the weekend, while Reuters quoted local officials saying that crude loadings had resumed following Friday’s drone strikes.

• Quantum Data Energy (MAST.L) delivers flexible, modular power solutions to the UK grid and AI datacentres worldwide.
• QDE is targeting 1GW of new generation by 2030.
• Our current value range is based only on 150MW and on our expected dilution of 223m shares.

• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | proposes merger with Axalta in an all share deal

• Suzano’s 3Q25 results were soft but broadly in line, with pulp volumes and prices weighing on margins. Healthier pricing and cost discipline should support gradual margin recovery.
• We upgrade the 2031 notes to Overweight after spreads widened 21 bps, creating more attractive relative value versus LatAm BBB peers and Suzano’s own curve.
• We expect improving pulp prices, Ribas cost efficiencies, and disciplined capital allocation to strengthen margins, liquidity, and deleveraging capacity over the next 9–12 months.

• Crude oil futures ended higher after a soft trading session earlier when immediate concerns around disruptions to Russian crude receded as loadings resumed from the crucial Novorossiysk port.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were last trading at $65/b (2017 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $64.20/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.78/b against a previous close of $59.91/b.
• Benchmarks have struggled in the early part of the week after loadings resumed from the key Black Sea oil hub following a two-day suspension in the wake of drone strikes.

• MTT extended copper mineralization at the Humbers Hughes Lake Trend by another 1.7km, bringing the total potential strike length to 3.9km.
• Rock sampling returned up to 0.545% Cu, with ~30% of the samples >500 ppm Cu, supporting a broad copper footprint at Hughes Lake.
• The expanded soil and rock dataset builds on earlier work and highlights a new SW copper target along the now 8km+ Trend.

• PowerBank reported first-quarter results that exceeded our expectations on the top and bottom line.
• Quarterly revenues will remain uneven as the company transitions to become an independent power producer over the coming years.
• Near-term demand should remain strong in the US solar market ahead of the expiration of the solar investment tax credit, but the outlook is less certain beyond 2026.

• China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
• There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
• Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

• China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement.
• This represents 9.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 2.9% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
• Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
• The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 

• Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• Yesterday post-close, Sakata Inx Corp (4633 JP) announced a ¥6bn+ selldown offering by financial crossholders. There may be others to come, but not clear how much.
• The company has had a good couple of years, the stock has reached book value. Optimised balance sheet ROE now clears 10%.
• Index impact is limited in all respects. Low vol, low multiple, decent dividend, high earnings progression on decent business growth are all positive factors. 

Since completing its merger with Mandalay Resources on 5 August, Alkane has 1) provided guidance for the combined group for FY26, 2) updated group reserves and resources and 3) released its Quarterly Activities Report for Q126. In the wake of these announcements, we forecast that the ‘new Alkane’ will produce c 158.8koz (plus c 4.3koz AuE in the form of antimony) in FY26 (cf 70.1koz in FY25) and that the merger will prove transformative to both its scale and valuation, including achieving the size required for inclusion in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the ASX 300 index (now confirmed).

• Thailand’s rubber exports up by .5% MoM to 204,095 MT in Sept

• Chinese imports decline while US imports sharply rise

• Significant disruption to production due to rains

  Thailand, which continued to witness unusually heavy rains during its ongoing production season, saw rubber export volume increasing marginally from August to September, while the returns also increased correspondingly as tight supply prevented prices from falling further.

• H1 FY2026/2 Results Review: In H1 FY2026/2, MORESCO CORPORATION (hereinafter, the Company) recorded net sales of JPY 16,865 mn (-1.4% YoY), due to lower automobile production and weaker demand for hot melt adhesives.
• However, operating profit rose significantly to JPY 949 mn (+41.5% YoY), supported by the expansion of high-value-added products and tighter control of SG&A expenses.
• The Special lubricants segment achieved higher sales driven by strong performance in cutting fluids and hard disk (HD) surface lubricants, while die casting lubricants declined. Sales in the Hot melt adhesives segment fell 8.1% YoY, whereas the liquid paraffins and sulfonates segment rose 6.1% YoY. 

• 3Q25 results underscored resilience amid soft markets. RYAM reported revenue of $353 million and adjusted EBITDA of $42 million, modestly below expectations but reflecting operational improvement.
• The loss from continuing operations narrowed sharply to $4 million from $33 million in 3Q24.
• Management reiterated that 2025 represents the trough year as temporary headwinds subside and pricing resets gain traction.

• What you need to know: • This morning, SPA announced assay results from two more drill holes as part of its 9,000-10,000m fall drill program.
• • Today’s results (similar to the previously reported two holes on November 3rd) confirm strong grades over wide intervals within the proposed pit (in areas previously modelled as lower-grade and/or waste), including 0.98 g/t Au over 41m and 1.16 g/t over 35m.
• • The drill results reported today and in the last release are well above resource grades and could have a material impact on future economics.

• Novelis is the world’s largest producer of flat-rolled aluminum (FRP) products and the global leader in aluminum recycling, uniquely positioning it to benefit from the secular trend towards lightweighting and sustainability in the automotive and beverage packaging industries.
• The company’s business model is centered on a closed-loop recycling system, which provides a significant cost and sustainability advantage over primary aluminum producers, as recycling aluminum requires only 5% of the energy needed for primary production.
• Significant capital investments in expanding rolling and recycling capacity are underway to meet growing demand, particularly in the high-value automotive and beverage can segments. However, operational disruptions and cost inflation present near-term headwinds to profitability.

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• CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK)‘s IPO price was fixed at the low end at HK$34.00. However, valuation is inexpensive, and initial price weakness is a long-term opportunity.
• Three groups of close peers, including nickel-related companies, mining companies, and lithium/battery companies, trade on average FY26F PER of 21x, vs. CNGR’s 12.5x.
• By parking it with the steepest HA discount of its peers (26.2%), CNGR will be valued at HK$40.07, as its IPO price implies a massive 37.4% discount.

• CNGR Advanced Material is a global market leader in the production of precursor cathode active materials (pCAM), a critical component for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage, and consumer electronics.
• The company has demonstrated a strong long-term revenue growth trajectory, driven by the expanding new energy market. However, recent financial performance shows signs of pressure, with a year-over-year decline in net income for the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to falling nickel and cobalt prices.
• The recent H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is poised to provide significant capital for global expansion but comes at a notable discount to its A-shares, presenting a potential valuation opportunity for institutional investors, as noted by Smartkarma analysts.

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• Stock price of Zijin Gold fluctuated up and down and not closely followed gold prices, which may disappoint investors who buy gold companies to take advantage of rising gold prices.
• We’ll reduce holdings of gold/silver and hold cash to deal with liquidity crises. Given the hyperinflation brought about by dollar depreciation, we’ll focus on inflation trading after liquidity crisis occurs.
• The main investment targets we will select include: commodities (e.g. gold, silver, copper). Upstream gold mining companies (e.g. Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold) will have priority over downstream company like Laopu.

• CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer and a new energy materials company.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Repsol Is evaluating a spin-off and potential reverse merger with APA Corp (APA US) to list its upstream division in the U.S., accelerating its planned 2026 “liquidity event.”
• A U.S. listing could narrow Repsol’s valuation gap versus American E&Ps, surface hidden upstream value, and improve liquidity, while management insists on maintaining ≥51 % ownership of the new entity.
• The proposed structure offers upside asymmetry: even if talks stall, Repsol retains IPO or private-placement options; a completed deal could unlock 15–25 % SOTP upside through U.S. multiple convergence.

• Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
• The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
• This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ has announced a deal to sell the Lake Johnston Project for a total consideration of $35m to Forrestania Resources Ltd (ASX:FRS) which is expected to complete in January 2026.
• The deal is accretive to HRZ given we had nil value ascribed to the project whilst the consideration is greater than what HRZ paid (~$30m) to acquire Poseidon Nickel (ASX:POS), predominately for Black Swan.

• Dharmaj Crop Guard had commissioned its INR 275 crore Active Ingredients (AI) plant, cementing its transformation from a formulations-only company to a fully integrated AgroChem player. 
• This strategic backward integration provides a massive new growth lever. However, it came at a short-term cost, as “front-loaded expenses” resulting in EBITDA losses from new plant last year.
• With the new plant’s losses absorbed, Dharmaj is positioned to leverage its integrated model, a pan-India distribution network, to pursue its ambition of becoming a 2,000 crore company by 2030.

• Crude oil futures on Friday continued to recover from three-week lows as Russian supply disruptions and broader geopolitical concerns got the better of oversupply fears at least for the day Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.35/b (2015 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.01/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.04/b against a previous close of $59.70/b.
• The latest drone strike from Ukraine targeted the Black Sea export hub of Novorossiysk overnight Thursday.
• Multiple reports, including from Russian and Ukraine media, reported a major blaze at the terminal, suggesting significant disruption in loading crude from the Black Sea hub.

• FY25 is the trough: weak smelter ramp (3–39%) and export ban drive losses; recovery depends on utilisation >50% in FY26.
• FY26 mining strong, smelter unclear: 220 kt Cu and 579 koz Au guided, but smelter repairs run through H1’26.
• Index risk rising: gold share <20% puts AMMN at high risk of GDX/MVGDX exclusion, with US$140–200m passive outflows.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio
• Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction

• In the second quarter of 2025, Chevron Corporation delivered a robust financial performance, reflecting strategic accomplishments and operational efficiency.
• The company reported earnings of $2.5 billion, equating to $1.45 per share, with adjusted earnings amounting to $3.1 billion or $1.77 per share.
• Several notable factors, including special items and foreign currency effects, impacted the earnings.

• CNX Resources Corporation reported its third-quarter 2025 results, discussing operational and financial metrics, including notable buybacks and strategic acquisitions.
• The company showed robust free cash flow, which facilitated a significant stock repurchase, evidencing a strong belief in its valuation relative to intrinsic worth.
• This buyback was the largest since the fourth quarter of 2022, underscoring the company’s strategic focus on returning value to shareholders.

• Sagar Cements is pursuing an aggressive, debt-fueled expansion strategy to increase its capacity and market reach, particularly in Central and Eastern India, aiming to capitalize on anticipated demand growth from infrastructure and housing sectors.
• The company’s financial performance is under significant pressure, characterized by revenue growth offset by severe margin compression, leading to net losses and negative free cash flow in recent periods. This has necessitated the suspension of its dividend.
• Key challenges for the company include managing its high debt levels, navigating the intensely competitive and cyclical nature of the Indian cement industry, and mitigating the impact of volatile input costs on its already strained profitability.

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