Energy & Materials Sector

• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) / (RIO LN) / (RIO US) is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.
• Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.
• Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.

• The copper trade still gets lots of attention. Reason for us to dig a little deeper and evaluate emerging opportunities.

• Let’s also evaluate the “fundamental” reason market participants have why COMEX Copper is so much pricier than LME copper…

• The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported refined copper into the US has triggered a widening of the COMEX-LME-Spread from 11% to 27%.

• European markets turned negative as sentiment following the US trade tariiff deal moved to ‘not great’ from ‘better than expected’.
• The Nasdaq edged to a new high, but enthusiasm across the board was weak.
• ASX futures are suggesting a soft start as Australia and other countries remain in the US line of sight for blanket 15%-20% tariffs.

• Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Russia expires on September 2nd, potentially leading to sanctions and increased weapons supplies to Ukraine
• EU’s new price cap on Russian crude takes effect on September 3rd, aiming to curtail Russia’s energy revenues and strengthen anti-circumvention measures
• Snapback provisions on Iran could be triggered in September, adding to global oil price volatility and uncertainty

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• Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks with a net inflow of S$334 million from July 18 to 24.
• Four primary-listed companies conducted share buybacks totaling S$29.8 million, led by United Overseas Bank’s repurchase of 800,000 shares.
• Ginko-AGT Global Growth Fund increased its stake in ISOTeam, acquiring 5,986,600 shares at S$0.086 each.

• Shin-Etsu Chemical’s fiscal Q1/26 results were inline with expectations, with EBIT down -12.6% yoy as margins declined yoy for all of its divisions 
• However, FY26E guidance disappointed markets, with a -14.4% decline in operating income, well below consensus’ already weak 0.6% forecast, and the stock fell -9.5%
• Shin-Etsu has trades at a P/B premium to the Japan chemical sector even with a lower ROE, providing limited valuation support especially given a weak operating outlook 

• Asia’s base oils demand could get support as buyers focus on locking in supply to cover requirements during final weeks of Q3 2025.
• Dynamic would highlight disconnect between typical seasonal slowdown in lube demand in month of August and need to secure base oils supplies to meet pick-up in demand at end of third quarter.
• Expectations of sufficient supply could prompt buyers to maintain balanced inventories rather than to seek larger stocks.

• Weatherford International’s second quarter 2025 financial results reveal a company operating amidst industrywide challenges but demonstrating resilience through strategic measures.
• The company experienced various regional performances, with notable market conditions impacting outcomes, such as the reduced revenues in North America due to Canada’s seasonal spring breakup and divestitures in Argentina.
• These circumstances, alongside an unstable Mexican market that has stabilized but is expected to see a 60% decline in activity for the year, influenced overall performance.

• Matador Resources Company reported a solid financial and operational performance in the second quarter of 2025, attributing its success to significant contributions from its leadership team and strategic initiatives.
• The company emphasized its commitment to increasing both production and free cash flow in tandem, highlighting a strong financial foundation bolstered by a $1.8 billion available line of credit.
• This financial flexibility supports the company’s drilling and cash flow opportunities.

• Range Resources Corporation reported strong financial and operational performance for the second quarter of 2025, driven by consistent well performances and several efficiency gains across operations.
• The company demonstrated significant free cash flow generation, allowing for shareholder returns and bolstering its long-term growth strategy amid a rising demand environment for natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
• Key positive highlights include the execution of efficient operations, which resulted in lower-than-anticipated capital expenditures, enabling Range Resources to revise its capital guidance.

• Revenue increased by 10.7% YoY to JPY3.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 37.8% YoY to JPY93mn.
• Sales for AI servers and data centers remained strong, but consumer product demand stalled due to US-China tensions.
• Revenue from semiconductor packages grew 24.1% YoY, while automotive-related sales declined slightly due to inventory adjustments.

• This week, the CERC issued the order on market coupling for DAM across all the Indian Power Exchanges. Now, a single uniform market clearing price will be determined centrally.
• Shares of Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX IN) have reacted negatively to this development. Management’s stance on market share remains positive even though there is uncertainty involved.
• Investors should also consider structural drivers like rising electricity demand, low exchange penetration, strong user loyalty, and positive performance of IGX platform while evaluating IEX’s long-term prospects.

• Baker Hughes Company demonstrated a strong performance in its second quarter of 2025, showing resilience and adaptability in a shifting macroeconomic and industry landscape.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.21 billion, reflecting a 170 basis point improvement in margins compared to the previous year, driven by effective cost management and improved operational execution.
• This marks the 10th consecutive quarter of meeting or exceeding midpoint EBITDA guidance, emphasizing a consistent streak of reliable financial performance which indicates strong execution across its segments despite broader industry challenges.

• Cleveland-Cliffs recently reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025, showcasing a mixed set of outcomes that highlight both strategic progress and ongoing challenges.
• The company achieved significant operational efficiency, increasing its adjusted EBITDA by $271 million compared to the previous quarter.
• This improvement was driven by higher shipment volumes, enhanced production efficiency, and strategic cost-cutting initiatives.

• Halliburton’s second quarter of 2025 presented a mixed financial and operational performance, with notable challenges and some opportunities.
• Despite volatile commodity markets and global economic uncertainties, the company reported a 2% increase in total revenue, reaching $5.5 billion compared to the first quarter of 2025.
• Operating income totaled $727 million, yielding an operating margin of 13%.

• Sherwin-Williams Company’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report reflects a mixed financial performance amidst a challenging economic environment.
• Despite ongoing market turbulence, the company continues to pursue its long-term strategic goals with some degree of success, but also faces significant near-term challenges.
• On the positive side, Sherwin-Williams reported consolidated sales within its guided range, buoyed by growth in its Paint Stores Group, although this was partially offset by declines in its other segments.

• Although Taiyo Kagaku is not a household name among consumers in Japan, it has a strong reputation in Japan and internationally among F&B companies for functional, health-enhancing ingredients.
• Three main reasons we like the stock include strong loyal customers in the F&B segment in Japan/internationally, solid growth of sales and profits, and attractive valuations. 
• Taiyo Kagaku currently has a SmartScore of 4.6 out of 5 which is among the top ranking stocks in the Japanese stock market. 

• Forge announced that while driving the decline at the La Estrella project, a coal seam was encountered measuring 0.5-1.0m in thickness.
• The Company has taken channel samples for lab analysis to assess the coal’s quality and market suitability.
• We recently initiated coverage on FRG, read the report here.

• A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.

• WTI crude prices are pressured by oversupply and weak sentiment, but received support late-week by a strong inventory draw and improved outlook for U.S.-EU trade talks. 
• U.S. natural gas prices dipped early due to high output and mild weather but recovered slightly on heat-driven demand, with ample storage limiting further upside.
• Oil and gas corporate updates showed mixed earnings and strategy shifts, with Halliburton guiding lower, BP appointing a new chairman, and SLB falling despite beating expectations.

• Iron ore futures surged on China’s massive hydropower push, but gains faded as property sector stress lingered.
• Investors are watching the upcoming Politburo meeting for potential action on curbing excess capacity in EV, solar, and lithium battery sectors to support struggling prices.
• Prices are holding firm above key moving averages, pointing to continued upward momentum, while the RSI hints at a potential price correction. 

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q225 financial results are scheduled for release on Thursday 7 August, after the market close in Toronto. Ahead of the release, we have updated our forecasts to reflect, in particular, an increase in production from Salobo from 58,500oz to 70,787oz in line with the volume of copper produced in Q2 (as per Vale’s production and sales report). On the basis of the difference between Vale’s Brazilian copper sales and its production (as a proxy for Salobo’s performance) we have also assumed only a small inventory build at Wheaton in Q2 relative to Q1. Including an upward adjustment to prices, these changes have resulted in a 21.7% increase to our Q225 adjusted EPS estimate and a 9.1% increase to our FY25 estimate. Note that our FY26 adjusted EPS estimate (below) is based on very conservative gold and silver prices of US$2,105/oz and US$24.33/oz, respectively. At prevailing metals prices, it rises to US$2.87/share, while its corresponding P/E ratio falls to 33.3x.

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q225 financial results are scheduled for release on Thursday 7 August, after the market close in Toronto. Ahead of the release, we have updated our forecasts to reflect, in particular, an increase in production from Salobo from 58,500oz to 70,787oz in line with the volume of copper produced in Q2 (as per Vale’s production and sales report). On the basis of the difference between Vale’s Brazilian copper sales and its production (as a proxy for Salobo’s performance) we have also assumed only a small inventory build at Wheaton in Q2 relative to Q1. Including an upward adjustment to prices, these changes have resulted in a 21.7% increase to our Q225 adjusted EPS estimate and a 9.1% increase to our FY25 estimate. Note that our FY26 adjusted EPS estimate (below) is based on very conservative gold and silver prices of US$2,105/oz and US$24.33/oz, respectively. At prevailing metals prices, it rises to US$2.87/share, while its corresponding P/E ratio falls to 33.3x.

• Materials and Energy led the week, with single stocks in both sectors posting standout gains.
• Breadth was broad-based, and average returns among winners were unusually strong.
• Single stock option volumes surged, with pronounced Call activity mid-week.

• OPTT hosted a FY25 briefing for analysts and investors today. OPTT is a provider of intelligent solutions for gathering information and delivering payloads in marine environments.
• The company’s offerings include several product lines supporting go- to-market strategies, featuring autonomous vehicles and persistent buoys capable of generating their own power.
• These assets are deployed at sea to collect data for a range of customers, with a strong focus on the defense and security sector, as well as offshore energy producers and the research and scientific communities.

• • Valeura is acquiring from PTTEP 40% WI in Blocks G1/65 and G3/65 with a combined area of 20,134 km2 and bordering some of the largest gas fields in Thailand (Erawan and Bongkot).
• The blocks have multiple gas discoveries that could be developed shortly as tie backs to existing infrastructure—positioning Valeura to potentially book its first gas reserves in the near term.
• Both licences offer oil potential adjacent to Valeura’s current production.

• In this insight, we discuss the potential adds and deletes of Korean stocks in a major global index in August 2025 as highlighted by the locals in Korea. 
• There are about 10 potential additions to the major global index mentioned by various local media accounts. LIG Nex1, Hyosung Heavy Industries, and Doosan Corp are most likely inclusion candidates. 
• There have been three companies that have been consistently mentioned in numerous local media as potential deletion candidates including LG Innotek, CJ Cheiljedang, and SKC Co. 

• The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event.
• Currently, we see no changes for T50 and two changes for T100 in September.

• The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
• In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the September 2025 index rebal event.
• Currently, we expect no changes for the TDIV index for the September 2025 review and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be US$662mn.

• India’s CERC has approved the implementation of Market Coupling in the DAM(Day Ahead Market)  by Jan-26, with Real Time Market (RTM) coupling to follow after operational experience is gained.
• IEX currently commands 99.8% market share in both DAM and RTM. With MC, price discovery will be centralized, eroding IEX’s platform advantage and likely resulting in loss of market share.
• If MC had been implemented in FY25, IEX’s earnings would have been 20% lower. This regulatory shift poses a clear structural risk to IEX’s volume dominance and earnings growth.

• CERC has mandated market coupling for the Day-Ahead Market starting Jan 2026, shifting price discovery to a central engine.
• This dilutes IEX’s pricing power but core execution role, user trust, and market share offer downside protection.
• Valuations at 38–40× FY25 EPS imply a fair value range of Rs175–195, with upside if growth in green and RTM segments accelerates.

• Shell’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 10.6% QoQ and 16.9% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 29.9% QoQ and 34.8% YoY.
• Despite stronger refining margins, unplanned maintenance is expected to drag down downstream and chemicals earnings, pressuring overall performance.
• However, options positioning reflects bullish sentiment, with traders betting on a potential upside surprise despite a downbeat operational update.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, SK Hynix
• US treasuries fell yesterday, with yields rising after three straight days of declines. That said, the sell-off in longer-dated treasuries moderated during the day, following strong demand for an auction of 20Y notes.
• The UST curve bear-flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 5 bps to 3.88%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 4 bps at 4.38%.

• What you need to know: • Copper Fox announced the results from the 2024 geotechnical investigations and an update on the 2025 activities at the Schaft Creek Project in BC.
• • On July 23rd, CUU provided its exploration plan and model for its 100% owned Sombrero Butte Project in Arizona.
• • On July 8th, our team published an interview with President and CEO Elmer Stewart, watch it here.

• What you need to know: • Mineros announced an initial Mineral Resource Estimate for the Guillermina Deposit at its Hemco Property in Nicaragua.
• • On July 21st, MSA announced the appointment of David Splett as the new CFO of the Company.
• • Sun Valley has acquired 23.9M shares via a public tender on the Colombian Stock Exchange at COP$5,500/share.

• A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

• Korea’s first full-scale tax reform in 3 years sets the stage for rate tweaks and deduction shifts—follow-up amendment bills usually get fast-tracked with high legislative priority.
• Dividend tax tweak could be the biggest near-term mover—eligibility widens, but tax cut shrinks. Focus shifts to names hiking payout, not just high-yielders—key for positioning.
• I screened target names with FY1/FY2 payout data and narrowed to KRW 1T+ stocks showing ≥10% YoY payout growth—likely short-term momentum plays ahead of the tax overhaul.

• Venture Global, Inc.’s IPO was one of the largest capital raises of the year, pulling in $1.75 billion through the sale of 70 million shares at $25.00 per share.
• In the months following the IPO, the performance worsened. By April, Venture Global shares had plunged to a low of $6.75, marking a staggering 73% decline from its IPO price.
• Regaining credibility will require not only strong quarterly results but also a sustained effort to rebuild institutional confidence.

• Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) delivered quarterly results that highlighted notable financial performance and forwardlooking business prospects, especially in the context of the growing international demand for natural gas.
• Positively, Kinder Morgan reported strong financial growth, with adjusted EBITDA and EPS increasing by 6% and 12% respectively compared to the second quarter of 2024.
• The company expects to exceed its budget for 2025, buoyed by the promising acquisition of Outrigger Energy.

• Chevron has officially closed its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation following a decisive arbitration victory over ExxonMobil, marking one of the most consequential moves in the global oil and gas sector this decade.
• The long-disputed deal had been mired in uncertainty due to Exxon’s contractual claims over Hess’s stake in the Guyana oil fields—a globally significant resource discovery with multi-decade production potential.
• However, a panel of international arbitrators sided with Chevron and Hess, clearing the way for the transaction to proceed.

• Our commentary this week is more limited and slightly disjointed, as we are not seeing any clear narratives or themes to focus on.
• Here are a few charts that caught our attention in flipping this week’s chartbook.
• Our tactical breadth charts, specifically for metals and mining stocks, suggest that a reversal of the recent rise may be in the cards.

• BHP Group’s fourth quarter operational report resulted in record iron ore and copper production for FY25.
• Weaker commodity pricing and delays at Jansen potash provided negative offsets

• • New Zealand Energy (NZE) has raised C$3 mm of new equity priced at C$0.18 per share.
• The proceeds of the raise will fund the desktop studies required to prepare the field development plan, derisking the gas storage project ahead of expected monetization within the next 12 months.
• It will also fund the repayment of the convertible note.

• What you need to know: • ADF secured a five-year Québec energy contract for $35M-$40M annually, with a five-year extension option, totalling nearly $400M.
• • The deal diversifies revenue outside the U.S. and adds long-term, recurring income, reducing exposure to market cyclicality.
• • Q2 financials will be released in September, we are expecting revenue of $58.2M, 22% gross margin, and EBITDA of $10.0M.

• An increase in the stock price and free float should result in Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) being included in a global index in August.
• Estimated passive buying is 8.2m shares (US$295m; 3x ADV; 10.8x delivery volume) at the close of trading on 26 August.
• Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) has outperformed Premier Energies (PREMIERE IN) over the last 3 months but still trades at a lower forward PE.

• Silver (SILVER COMDTY) going parabolic. Why? Three reasons. Stratospheric Gold prices. Robust industrial demand amid supply constraints. Weaking dollar.
• Silver IV is spiking up. Especially, Up Var jumped 10.7% to 35.64 signalling rising bullish sentiments among options market makers.
• Silver is forecasted to have supply deficit seventh year in succession.

• China’s mega hydropower project signals stronger infrastructure-led steel demand, offering a lifeline to mills and boosting near-term iron ore demand and prices amid weak property activity.
• Rio Tinto’s strong Q2 output boosts near-term iron ore momentum, but muted shipments, cyclone impact, and gradual Simandou ramp-up may limit upside in prices.
• Portside iron ore inventory data showed mixed signals last week, with SMM reporting a sharp drop while CISA data reflected a slight increase.

• WTI futures dropped by 3.5% for the week ending 18/Jul, marking its first fall in three weeks. The downtrend was driven by fears over oversupply and weak demand.
• The U.S. rig count rose by seven to 544, led by a rise in gas rigs. Oil rigs dropped for the twelfth straight week, down by two to 422.
• WTI OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 18/Jul compared to 0.91 on 11/Jul. Call OI fell by 22.8% WoW, while put OI dropped by 18.4%.

• The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern.
• These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…
• The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).

• Chevron’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 8% QoQ and 14.5% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 21.6% QoQ and 32.9% YoY.
• Chevron’s Q2 earnings are expected to fall to their lowest level since 2021, primarily due to weak crude oil and natural gas prices.
• Bearish sentiment dominates options positioning, with elevated put-call ratios and heavy put open interest near key support levels.

• Exxon’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 3% QoQ and 13.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to drop 11.4% QoQ and 27.1% YoY.
• Exxon’s Q2 earnings are expected to hit their lowest since Q3 2021, driven by weak crude and gas prices despite stronger refining margins.
• Options market positioning shows a bullish bias, suggesting traders are betting on a potential upside surprise.

• For the week ending 18/Jul, Henry Hub rebounded by 7.6% on the back of warm weather forecasts and rising gas flows to LNG export terminals.
• For the week ending 11/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 46 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 44 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.87 on 18/Jul compared to 11/Jul. Call OI grew by 3.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.3%.

• Q2 EBITDA of $97M beat expectations by $132M, driven by record shipments, a $15/ton cost cut, and ASP of $1,015/ton.
• Management reaffirmed a $50/ton cost-reduction target, expects H2 free cash flow inflection, and sees stable shipments with pricing support.
• Despite a 12.5% post-earnings rally, CLF trades at just 0.55x P/B and $653/ton EV, a steep discount to U.S. peers like Nucor and SDI.

• Galp has received multiple non-binding offers from reputable parties for a stake in PEL 83, home to the Mopane discovery.
• The company is actively engaging with several counterparties, aiming to announce a farm-in partner by YE25.
• These counterparties bring strong operatorship credentials and have prioritized Namibia within their corporate strategies.

• BHP Group Limited’s performance in the first half of the 2025 financial year illustrates a mix of strategic advancements and operational challenges in its diverse portfolio.
• The first half results showcase several strengths and areas for further focus as the company navigates a complex global mining landscape.
• A key positive from BHP’s recent performance is the record output in its Western Australian iron ore operations, which achieved the lowest production costs globally.

• U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage / MercadoLibre Achieves Full Investment Grade Status with S&P Upgrade / Pemex Eyes US$8bn from Mixed Contracts
• Initiating Coverage on Gerdau: IG Credit with US Exposure, Limited Spread Upside / Fitch Affirms Gerdau at BBB with Stable Outlook on Strong Fundamentals
• Vista 2Q25: Results Reinforce Overweight, But Cash Burn and Liquidity Weaken Buffer / US Reinforces Argentina’s Appeal in YPF Expropriation Case

• Sanli Environmental and mDR saw significant increases in average daily trading turnover, with returns of 98.9% and 137.5% respectively.
• Q&M Dental led net institutional inflows with S$7.68 million, alongside increased CEO ownership and active share buybacks.
• OKP Holdings secured a S$258 million contract, boosting its order book to S$736 million, with visibility to 2031.

• Fortescue Metals Group Limited’s latest earnings report reveals a mix of strategic growth initiatives, operational achievements, and emerging challenges.
• The company has reported its highest-ever first-half shipments of 97.1 million tonnes, underpinning a strong operational performance.
• A significant improvement in safety metrics, namely a 44% improvement in Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR), further emphasizes Fortescue’s commitment to maintaining high safety standards on-site.

• We reiterate positive momentum on iron ore pricing as mill spreads pass 100 RMB/ton and positive lending data from China increases optimism. Iron ore prices are now 103 USD/ton.
• Read: Iron Ore: Small Bounce From 96 to 100 USD/Ton As China Mill Margins Turn Positive and Iron Ore: Mill Spreads Continue to Improve, Bullish Ore To 110 USD/Ton. 
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU), which is about to commission the Beebyn-W11 mine and triple its production to 4.1 million tons (vs 1.4 million tons two quarters ago).

• Evolution Mining reported strong performance for the June 2025 quarter, marking a positive end to the fiscal year.
• The company produced 182,000 ounces of gold and 19,000 tonnes of copper for the quarter, reaching a total of 751,000 ounces of gold and 76,000 tonnes of copper for the full year.
• However, the increase in all-in sustaining costs (AISC) to $1,572 per ounce for FY’25 was significantly affected by higher royalty costs due to elevated gold prices.

• Almonty Industries Inc. and MP Materials Corp. are both players in the critical minerals space, supplying materials vital for modern industries and strategic applications.
• Almonty focuses on tungsten, a metal essential for defense, electronics, and industrial tooling, while MP Materials is a leading U.S. producer of rare earth elements, particularly neodymium and praseodymium, used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military technologies.
• Recently, Almonty has been progressing the development of its flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, which is expected to start production in late 2025 and potentially double capacity by 2027 through a planned expansion.

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• Asia’s base oils demand shows signs of holding firmer than usual for time of year even as region’s lube demand faces seasonal slowdown in month of August.
• Lower end-user consumption and prospect of improving availability of supply curbs need to build stocks.
• Tighter-than-usual supply so far this year, lack of build-up of surplus volumes, and seasonal pick-up in demand in late-Q3 2025 could support steady demand.

• Adnoc Gas (ADNOCGAS UH) had been omitted from both global indices due to insufficient float cap despite a market cap of over $60bn.
• On 21 February 2025, the company completed a Secondary Offering of $2.8bn, resulting in a free float increase from 5% to 9%.
• Adnoc Gas (ADNOCGAS UH) is expected to be added to Global All-World at the September 2025 review due to an increased float cap.

• Revenue peaked in FY23 but margins have declined due to cost pressures and impairments.
• The company is exiting underperforming assets and expanding in fine carbon, furnaces, and carbon black.
• At ¥1,010, it trades at ~19.6x FY25e P/E, in line with peers but below book at 0.8x P/B.

• Past Performance: Revenues stable; margins improved due to semiconductor growth, despite weak performance in legacy chemicals and graphite electrodes.
• Strategy & Shutdown: Shutting 30% electrode capacity; refocusing on high-margin semiconductor, SiC, and packaging materials with ¥330 bn capex planned by FY25.
• Valuation: Trades at 8x EV/EBITDA and 14x P/E FY25E; re-rating possible with higher margins and semiconductor mix.

• Recent Results: Q1 EBITDA surged 38% YoY to ₹7,576 Cr, driven by volume ramp-up, improved product mix, and lower coking coal costs.
• FY26 Guidance: Company maintains production at 30.5 mt and sales at 29.2 mt, reflecting confidence in its ramp-up and downstream expansion roadmap.
• Valuation & Growth: Trading at ~18× FY27E P/E and ~7× EV/EBITDA—above global peers—justified by projected 20% EBITDA and 23% EPS growth into FY27.

• RaaS Research’s Finola Burke and Andrew Williams interview Provaris Energy Managing Director/CEO Martin Carolan on the company’s strategy, its partnerships with Yinson and K Line and path to a FID.

• In our previous insight, Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton, we highlighted upside risk to the LME price.
• Comex-LME spreads remain elevated at $ 2,500/ton levels, reflecting the impact of tariffs that haven’t yet been imposed, amid ongoing supply disruptions. Inventories, though, have stopped depleting on the LME. 
• We remain bullish on copper in the countdown to August 1st, where it is likely that tariffs of 50% are imposed on copper. 

• Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (18 July to 1 August 2025).
• Our top 10 picks were up on average 4.5% in the past two weeks, slightly outperforming KOSPI which was up 4.4% in the same period.
• The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Hanil Cement, LG CNS, KCC Corp, Poongsan, Paradise, Samsung Electronics, Naver, SM Entertainment, LG Chem, and SK Inc. 

• BHP reported strong operations overall for fiscal Q4/25, with iron ore, copper and coal production up yoy and a qoq recovery after rough Q3/25 Australian weather
• The company released 2026E guidance, with the low-end indicating production declines for the three major divisions, although this was expected by the market 
• We remain concerned of potential iron ore and copper price reversals, while the shares trade near our DCF value and at a moderate premium to big cap iron ore