Hong Kong

In this briefing:

1. Studio City – Thoughts on Lock-Up Expiry
2. OUE Commercial REIT & Hospitality Trust Merger Proposed
3. HK Connect Discovery Weekly: Air China and Great Wall Motor (2019-04-04)
4. Kingboard Starts Voluntary Unconditional Offer for 88% Held Sub Kingboard Copper Foil
5. Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap

1. Studio City – Thoughts on Lock-Up Expiry

Studio City, a spin-off by MLCO US, was listed on October 18th, 2018 and its lock-up will expire next week on April 16th. The company raised USD 359 million in its IPO with the majority of the shares taken up by its shareholders.

In this insight, we will review the company’s operation, shares subject to lock-up expiry and its valuation vs peers. 

Our previous insights on Studio City

• Studio City (新濠影汇) IPO: A Melco Spin-Off Turning Profitable
• Studio City (新濠影汇) IPO: Attractive Valuation with Options for Long-Term Upside (Part 2)
• Studio City (新濠影汇) IPO Trading Update: Performance Within Expectations, Near-Term Upside Capped

2. OUE Commercial REIT & Hospitality Trust Merger Proposed

After a WSJ article on Sunday suggesting as much, Monday morning 8 April 2018 saw the announcement of a Proposed Merger between OUE Commercial Real Estate Investment Tr (OUECT SP) and OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP) whereby OUEHT unitholders would receive a combination of cash and OUECT shares (S$0.04075 + 1.3853 shares of OUECT) for every share of OUEHT held. Investors in each would receive any “permitted distributions” (dividends, etc) declared by the respective managers in respect of the period from 1 Jan 2019 up to the day immediately before the date on which Trust Scheme becomes effective.

This would create a REIT with S$6.8bn of assets, a pro-forma market cap of ~S$2.9bn, and a free-float of S$1.1bn (up by 57%). OUE Group would continue to own 48.3% of the total. 

The benefits to investors would be increased scale (2.2mm square feet of commercial net lettable area, + 1,640 hotel rooms), more borrowing capacity, increased diversification as asset concentration would be lowered, and because the scope of NewREIT would be broader, it would allow REIT managers more flexibility. The above-mentioned points are advertised as being the fodder for a re-rating. The idea of possible index inclusion is mooted as well. 

The OUECT presentation says that the merger is “DPU accretive to unitholders” (+2.1% on a 2018 pro-forma basis) while the OUEHT presentation says that the merger is “value accretive to stapled securityholders” (+18.7% NAV uplift per stapled security). 

Details of how this all works below.

Separately, two other Singapore deals announced at the end of last week include:

• Kingboard Laminates Hldgs (1888 HK) buying out Kingboard Copper Foil (KCF SP) discussed in Kingboard Starts Voluntary Unconditional Offer for 88% Held Sub Kingboard Copper Foil

• China Everbright (165 HK) announces an MGO for Ying Li International Real Estate Ltd (YINGLI SP) as discussed in Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap

• To accompany these, there is a Quiddity Singapore M&A Guide 2019.

3. HK Connect Discovery Weekly: Air China and Great Wall Motor (2019-04-04)

In our Discover HK Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by mainland investors in the past seven days.

We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.

In this insight, we will highlight Air China and Great Wall Motor. 

4. Kingboard Starts Voluntary Unconditional Offer for 88% Held Sub Kingboard Copper Foil

April 4th after the close, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888 HK) (which itself is 70.93% owned by Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) (formerly known as “Kingboard Chemical“)) launched a VOLUNTARY UNCONDITIONAL CASH OFFER for Kingboard Copper Foil Hldgs (KCF SP). 

This is a “clean-up” as Kingboard Laminates owns 87.96% of Kingboard Copper Foil already. 

It is unconditional in all respects and the Offeror owns 87.96%. The goal is delisting. If they get 17.03% of the minority, they will be able to engineer a delisting. Squeezeout is a bit further out but is far from impossible. 

This looks like a done deal. This one should trade at shouldn’t trade at a premium UNLESS…

Quiddity’s new Quiddity Singapore M&A Guide 2019 is now published with guidelines to the relevant rules, regulations, documentation, and pointers to the Singapore M&A landscape. Watch for more in the series to be published shortly.

5. Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap

On 3 April 2019, China Everbright (165 HK)‘s wholly owned subsidiary, State Alpha Limited, purchased 767,052,161 shares representing approximately 30.00% of the Shares in Singapore-listed property developer, Ying Li International Real Estate Ltd (YINGLI SP), from Newest Luck Holdings Limited (the vehicle of Executive Chairman and CEO Mr. Fang Ming) at a share price of SGD 0.140.

Following this transaction, the combined stake of China Everbright and parties acting in concert with it reached 58.91% triggering an obligation to make a mandatory offer for all the shares of Ying Li, a transaction which was announced after the close.

The offer price of SGD 0.140 translates to a premium of 5.9% and 10.9% to Ying Li’s 1-month and 3-month VWAP, respectively but less than a 1% premium to last trade – the company’s shares closed at SGD 0.139 on 3rd April before the announcement. The company asked for a trading halt the next morning and the shares have not traded yet as the large shareholder disclosures have come trickling in on the 4th and the 5th.

The acquirer has stated that it is their present intention to maintain the listing status of the company. However, the acquirer also reserves the right to reevaluate this position if the free float falls below the 10% requirement specified in the listing rules following the completion of the offer. 

This is something like a free put for investors and a very low-priced call option for Everbright. The situation raises obvious questions, and despite the “intention” to maintain the listing status, there are reasons why they would not want to. The details are worth a look.

Quiddity’s new Quiddity Singapore M&A Guide 2019 is now published with guidelines to the relevant rules, regulations, documentation, and pointers to the Singapore M&A landscape. Watch for more in the series to be published shortly.

In this briefing:

1. OUE Commercial REIT & Hospitality Trust Merger Proposed
2. HK Connect Discovery Weekly: Air China and Great Wall Motor (2019-04-04)
3. Kingboard Starts Voluntary Unconditional Offer for 88% Held Sub Kingboard Copper Foil
4. Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap
5. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle

1. OUE Commercial REIT & Hospitality Trust Merger Proposed

After a WSJ article on Sunday suggesting as much, Monday morning 8 April 2018 saw the announcement of a Proposed Merger between OUE Commercial Real Estate Investment Tr (OUECT SP) and OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT SP) whereby OUEHT unitholders would receive a combination of cash and OUECT shares (S$0.04075 + 1.3853 shares of OUECT) for every share of OUEHT held. Investors in each would receive any “permitted distributions” (dividends, etc) declared by the respective managers in respect of the period from 1 Jan 2019 up to the day immediately before the date on which Trust Scheme becomes effective.

This would create a REIT with S$6.8bn of assets, a pro-forma market cap of ~S$2.9bn, and a free-float of S$1.1bn (up by 57%). OUE Group would continue to own 48.3% of the total. 

The benefits to investors would be increased scale (2.2mm square feet of commercial net lettable area, + 1,640 hotel rooms), more borrowing capacity, increased diversification as asset concentration would be lowered, and because the scope of NewREIT would be broader, it would allow REIT managers more flexibility. The above-mentioned points are advertised as being the fodder for a re-rating. The idea of possible index inclusion is mooted as well. 

The OUECT presentation says that the merger is “DPU accretive to unitholders” (+2.1% on a 2018 pro-forma basis) while the OUEHT presentation says that the merger is “value accretive to stapled securityholders” (+18.7% NAV uplift per stapled security). 

Details of how this all works below.

Separately, two other Singapore deals announced at the end of last week include:

• Kingboard Laminates Hldgs (1888 HK) buying out Kingboard Copper Foil (KCF SP) discussed in Kingboard Starts Voluntary Unconditional Offer for 88% Held Sub Kingboard Copper Foil

• China Everbright (165 HK) announces an MGO for Ying Li International Real Estate Ltd (YINGLI SP) as discussed in Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap

• To accompany these, there is a Quiddity Singapore M&A Guide 2019.

2. HK Connect Discovery Weekly: Air China and Great Wall Motor (2019-04-04)

In our Discover HK Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by mainland investors in the past seven days.

We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.

In this insight, we will highlight Air China and Great Wall Motor. 

3. Kingboard Starts Voluntary Unconditional Offer for 88% Held Sub Kingboard Copper Foil

April 4th after the close, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888 HK) (which itself is 70.93% owned by Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) (formerly known as “Kingboard Chemical“)) launched a VOLUNTARY UNCONDITIONAL CASH OFFER for Kingboard Copper Foil Hldgs (KCF SP). 

This is a “clean-up” as Kingboard Laminates owns 87.96% of Kingboard Copper Foil already. 

It is unconditional in all respects and the Offeror owns 87.96%. The goal is delisting. If they get 17.03% of the minority, they will be able to engineer a delisting. Squeezeout is a bit further out but is far from impossible. 

This looks like a done deal. This one should trade at shouldn’t trade at a premium UNLESS…

Quiddity’s new Quiddity Singapore M&A Guide 2019 is now published with guidelines to the relevant rules, regulations, documentation, and pointers to the Singapore M&A landscape. Watch for more in the series to be published shortly.

4. Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap

On 3 April 2019, China Everbright (165 HK)‘s wholly owned subsidiary, State Alpha Limited, purchased 767,052,161 shares representing approximately 30.00% of the Shares in Singapore-listed property developer, Ying Li International Real Estate Ltd (YINGLI SP), from Newest Luck Holdings Limited (the vehicle of Executive Chairman and CEO Mr. Fang Ming) at a share price of SGD 0.140.

Following this transaction, the combined stake of China Everbright and parties acting in concert with it reached 58.91% triggering an obligation to make a mandatory offer for all the shares of Ying Li, a transaction which was announced after the close.

The offer price of SGD 0.140 translates to a premium of 5.9% and 10.9% to Ying Li’s 1-month and 3-month VWAP, respectively but less than a 1% premium to last trade – the company’s shares closed at SGD 0.139 on 3rd April before the announcement. The company asked for a trading halt the next morning and the shares have not traded yet as the large shareholder disclosures have come trickling in on the 4th and the 5th.

The acquirer has stated that it is their present intention to maintain the listing status of the company. However, the acquirer also reserves the right to reevaluate this position if the free float falls below the 10% requirement specified in the listing rules following the completion of the offer. 

This is something like a free put for investors and a very low-priced call option for Everbright. The situation raises obvious questions, and despite the “intention” to maintain the listing status, there are reasons why they would not want to. The details are worth a look.

Quiddity’s new Quiddity Singapore M&A Guide 2019 is now published with guidelines to the relevant rules, regulations, documentation, and pointers to the Singapore M&A landscape. Watch for more in the series to be published shortly.

5. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.4% for IPOs and 63.5% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Changliao AKA 派派(Hong Kong, ~US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Leong Hup – comeback sunny side up
• Polycab India eyes to raise around Rs 1,345 crore through IPO
• Carlyle-backed Metropolis Healthcare’s IPO nears halfway mark on second day
• Eagle Hospitality Trust eyes Singapore IPO to raise up to US$575m
• Cancer Treatment Firm Plans Hong Kong IPO
• Goldman-Backed Chinese Online Pet Store Boqii Plans IPO
• China drone maker EHang delays IPO plan, eyes private funding-sources

This week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Map Aktif Follow-On Offering – Lace up for a Potential Long Run
• Zhongliang (中梁地产) Pre-IPO Review – Incredible Growth Bogged Down by Related Party Transactions
• CIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
• PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
• Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained

In this briefing:

1. Futu Holdings IPO Trading Update – Might Be Trading a Little Too High
2. Last Week in GER Event-Driven Research: Myob, Rakuten, Delta, Graincorp and Hopewell Holding
3. Another MGO For HKICIM As HNA Sells Stake Back To Blackstone
4. Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive

1. Futu Holdings IPO Trading Update – Might Be Trading a Little Too High

Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US)‘s IPO was priced at the top-end at US$12/ADS raising a total of US$160m, including the US$70m raised from General Atlantic via a concurrent private placement.

In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background,  past financial performance, scored the deal on our IPO framework and compared it to Tiger Brokers: 

• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, 
• Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – FY18 Updates And Quick Thoughts on Valuation,
• Futu Holdings IPO – Given the Team, Execution, and Backers, Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End, and
• Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics

In this insight, I will re-visit some of the deal dynamics, comment on share price drivers and provide a table with implied valuations.

2. Last Week in GER Event-Driven Research: Myob, Rakuten, Delta, Graincorp and Hopewell Holding

In this version of the GER weekly EVENTS research wrap, we contend that investors should cash out on the MYOB Group Ltd (MYO AU) deal and assess the NAV discount potential for Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) post the IPO launch of Lyft Inc (0812823D US) – of which Rakuten has a 13% stake. Moreover, we dig into the deals for Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) , Graincorp Ltd A (GNC AU) and Hopewell Holdings (54 HK)

More details can be found below. 

Best of luck for the new week – Rickin, Venkat and Arun

3. Another MGO For HKICIM As HNA Sells Stake Back To Blackstone

Late Friday night, Hong Kong International Construction Investment Management Group Co., (687 HK) (“HKICIM”) announced HNA Finance had entered into a SPA in which Times Holdings, a Blackstone-controlled vehicle, had conditionally agreed to buy 69.54% of HKICIM’s issued shares for HK$3/share in an HK$7bn transaction. Should the SPA complete, Times will make a mandatory unconditional offer – also at $3.00/share (14.5% premium to last close) – for the remaining 30.46% of shares out.

This proposal arrives nearly three years after HNA bought a 66% in Tysan Holdings  – as HKICIM was previously known – from Blackstone for HK$4.53 per share, triggering an MGO.

This share sale underlines HNA Group’s ongoing strategy to ease its debt burden and align its core business focus towards aviation, not construction and property.

HKICIM made headlines in the past not just for its eye-watering property acquisitions at Kai Tak (up to HK$13.5k/sqft in March 2017), the former site of Hong Kong’s international airport; but that HNA was also oddly motivated to acquire these parcels of land at record breaking prices to “snatch land and pricing power from the city’s real estate cartel“.

HKICIM sold its last Kai Tak site to Wheelock & (20 HK) last month (for a loss of $740mn), leaving the company with an estimated net cash position of ~$6.0bn (using FY18 interim numbers) or ~$1.80/share, it’s foundation piling operations, a development site in Hong Kong and a residential and commercial property development project in Shenyang.

The closing of the SPA is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of various conditions. However, the short time frame (13 business days from this announcement) in which to secure, fulfill or waive these conditions suggest minimal deal risk.

This will trade tight to, if not through terms, with an anticipated completion late April. There will be no bump to the Offer. Times does not intend to avail itself to compulsory acquisition and intends to maintain HKICIM’s listing; while both Times and HKICIM will take appropriate steps to maintain a sufficient public float after the close of the Offer.

4. Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive

• Capital flows are strongly Granger causal
• Gross capital flows lead World shipping activity by 4 months
• Capital flows have been slowly rising since June 2018: in February they jumped
• Reinforces out pro-Asia and pro-China investment message

In this briefing:

1. Another MGO For HKICIM As HNA Sells Stake Back To Blackstone
2. Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive

1. Another MGO For HKICIM As HNA Sells Stake Back To Blackstone

Late Friday night, Hong Kong International Construction Investment Management Group Co., (687 HK) (“HKICIM”) announced HNA Finance had entered into a SPA in which Times Holdings, a Blackstone-controlled vehicle, had conditionally agreed to buy 69.54% of HKICIM’s issued shares for HK$3/share in an HK$7bn transaction. Should the SPA complete, Times will make a mandatory unconditional offer – also at $3.00/share (14.5% premium to last close) – for the remaining 30.46% of shares out.

This proposal arrives nearly three years after HNA bought a 66% in Tysan Holdings  – as HKICIM was previously known – from Blackstone for HK$4.53 per share, triggering an MGO.

This share sale underlines HNA Group’s ongoing strategy to ease its debt burden and align its core business focus towards aviation, not construction and property.

HKICIM made headlines in the past not just for its eye-watering property acquisitions at Kai Tak (up to HK$13.5k/sqft in March 2017), the former site of Hong Kong’s international airport; but that HNA was also oddly motivated to acquire these parcels of land at record breaking prices to “snatch land and pricing power from the city’s real estate cartel“.

HKICIM sold its last Kai Tak site to Wheelock & (20 HK) last month (for a loss of $740mn), leaving the company with an estimated net cash position of ~$6.0bn (using FY18 interim numbers) or ~$1.80/share, it’s foundation piling operations, a development site in Hong Kong and a residential and commercial property development project in Shenyang.

The closing of the SPA is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of various conditions. However, the short time frame (13 business days from this announcement) in which to secure, fulfill or waive these conditions suggest minimal deal risk.

This will trade tight to, if not through terms, with an anticipated completion late April. There will be no bump to the Offer. Times does not intend to avail itself to compulsory acquisition and intends to maintain HKICIM’s listing; while both Times and HKICIM will take appropriate steps to maintain a sufficient public float after the close of the Offer.

2. Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive

• Capital flows are strongly Granger causal
• Gross capital flows lead World shipping activity by 4 months
• Capital flows have been slowly rising since June 2018: in February they jumped
• Reinforces out pro-Asia and pro-China investment message

In this briefing:

1. Another MGO For HKICIM As HNA Sells Stake Back To Blackstone
2. Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive
3. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

1. Another MGO For HKICIM As HNA Sells Stake Back To Blackstone

Late Friday night, Hong Kong International Construction Investment Management Group Co., (687 HK) (“HKICIM”) announced HNA Finance had entered into a SPA in which Times Holdings, a Blackstone-controlled vehicle, had conditionally agreed to buy 69.54% of HKICIM’s issued shares for HK$3/share in an HK$7bn transaction. Should the SPA complete, Times will make a mandatory unconditional offer – also at $3.00/share (14.5% premium to last close) – for the remaining 30.46% of shares out.

This proposal arrives nearly three years after HNA bought a 66% in Tysan Holdings  – as HKICIM was previously known – from Blackstone for HK$4.53 per share, triggering an MGO.

This share sale underlines HNA Group’s ongoing strategy to ease its debt burden and align its core business focus towards aviation, not construction and property.

HKICIM made headlines in the past not just for its eye-watering property acquisitions at Kai Tak (up to HK$13.5k/sqft in March 2017), the former site of Hong Kong’s international airport; but that HNA was also oddly motivated to acquire these parcels of land at record breaking prices to “snatch land and pricing power from the city’s real estate cartel“.

HKICIM sold its last Kai Tak site to Wheelock & (20 HK) last month (for a loss of $740mn), leaving the company with an estimated net cash position of ~$6.0bn (using FY18 interim numbers) or ~$1.80/share, it’s foundation piling operations, a development site in Hong Kong and a residential and commercial property development project in Shenyang.

The closing of the SPA is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of various conditions. However, the short time frame (13 business days from this announcement) in which to secure, fulfill or waive these conditions suggest minimal deal risk.

This will trade tight to, if not through terms, with an anticipated completion late April. There will be no bump to the Offer. Times does not intend to avail itself to compulsory acquisition and intends to maintain HKICIM’s listing; while both Times and HKICIM will take appropriate steps to maintain a sufficient public float after the close of the Offer.

2. Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive

• Capital flows are strongly Granger causal
• Gross capital flows lead World shipping activity by 4 months
• Capital flows have been slowly rising since June 2018: in February they jumped
• Reinforces out pro-Asia and pro-China investment message

3. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
• Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
• Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
• Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
• Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Chinese drone maker EHang plans US IPO
• Airport REIT could finance Singapore’s massive infrastructure ambitions
• PNB MetLife Insurance IPO likely in Q2FY20

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Lyft IPO Preview
• Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
• LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
• Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
• Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

In this briefing:

1. Another MGO For HKICIM As HNA Sells Stake Back To Blackstone
2. Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive
3. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas
4. Japan – Chinese Flu

1. Another MGO For HKICIM As HNA Sells Stake Back To Blackstone

Late Friday night, Hong Kong International Construction Investment Management Group Co., (687 HK) (“HKICIM”) announced HNA Finance had entered into a SPA in which Times Holdings, a Blackstone-controlled vehicle, had conditionally agreed to buy 69.54% of HKICIM’s issued shares for HK$3/share in an HK$7bn transaction. Should the SPA complete, Times will make a mandatory unconditional offer – also at $3.00/share (14.5% premium to last close) – for the remaining 30.46% of shares out.

This proposal arrives nearly three years after HNA bought a 66% in Tysan Holdings  – as HKICIM was previously known – from Blackstone for HK$4.53 per share, triggering an MGO.

This share sale underlines HNA Group’s ongoing strategy to ease its debt burden and align its core business focus towards aviation, not construction and property.

HKICIM made headlines in the past not just for its eye-watering property acquisitions at Kai Tak (up to HK$13.5k/sqft in March 2017), the former site of Hong Kong’s international airport; but that HNA was also oddly motivated to acquire these parcels of land at record breaking prices to “snatch land and pricing power from the city’s real estate cartel“.

HKICIM sold its last Kai Tak site to Wheelock & (20 HK) last month (for a loss of $740mn), leaving the company with an estimated net cash position of ~$6.0bn (using FY18 interim numbers) or ~$1.80/share, it’s foundation piling operations, a development site in Hong Kong and a residential and commercial property development project in Shenyang.

The closing of the SPA is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of various conditions. However, the short time frame (13 business days from this announcement) in which to secure, fulfill or waive these conditions suggest minimal deal risk.

This will trade tight to, if not through terms, with an anticipated completion late April. There will be no bump to the Offer. Times does not intend to avail itself to compulsory acquisition and intends to maintain HKICIM’s listing; while both Times and HKICIM will take appropriate steps to maintain a sufficient public float after the close of the Offer.

2. Global Capital Flows Show China’s Collapsing Export Markets Could Soon Revive

• Capital flows are strongly Granger causal
• Gross capital flows lead World shipping activity by 4 months
• Capital flows have been slowly rising since June 2018: in February they jumped
• Reinforces out pro-Asia and pro-China investment message

3. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
• Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
• Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
• Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
• Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Chinese drone maker EHang plans US IPO
• Airport REIT could finance Singapore’s massive infrastructure ambitions
• PNB MetLife Insurance IPO likely in Q2FY20

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Lyft IPO Preview
• Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
• LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
• Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
• Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

4. Japan – Chinese Flu

By Konstantinos Venetis, Senior Economist

• Japan skirts recession but near-term prospects remain weak
• Deflationary headwinds to persist in H1, threatening business spending
• Recovery likely in late 2019 as world trade finds a firmer footing

In this briefing:

1. Kingboard Starts Voluntary Unconditional Offer for 88% Held Sub Kingboard Copper Foil
2. Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap
3. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle
4. Battery Technology- The Key To An Electric Vehicle Future
5. Guangzhou Rural: All the Shakespearoes?

1. Kingboard Starts Voluntary Unconditional Offer for 88% Held Sub Kingboard Copper Foil

April 4th after the close, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888 HK) (which itself is 70.93% owned by Kingboard Holdings (148 HK) (formerly known as “Kingboard Chemical“)) launched a VOLUNTARY UNCONDITIONAL CASH OFFER for Kingboard Copper Foil Hldgs (KCF SP). 

This is a “clean-up” as Kingboard Laminates owns 87.96% of Kingboard Copper Foil already. 

It is unconditional in all respects and the Offeror owns 87.96%. The goal is delisting. If they get 17.03% of the minority, they will be able to engineer a delisting. Squeezeout is a bit further out but is far from impossible. 

This looks like a done deal. This one should trade at shouldn’t trade at a premium UNLESS…

Quiddity’s new Quiddity Singapore M&A Guide 2019 is now published with guidelines to the relevant rules, regulations, documentation, and pointers to the Singapore M&A landscape. Watch for more in the series to be published shortly.

2. Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap

On 3 April 2019, China Everbright (165 HK)‘s wholly owned subsidiary, State Alpha Limited, purchased 767,052,161 shares representing approximately 30.00% of the Shares in Singapore-listed property developer, Ying Li International Real Estate Ltd (YINGLI SP), from Newest Luck Holdings Limited (the vehicle of Executive Chairman and CEO Mr. Fang Ming) at a share price of SGD 0.140.

Following this transaction, the combined stake of China Everbright and parties acting in concert with it reached 58.91% triggering an obligation to make a mandatory offer for all the shares of Ying Li, a transaction which was announced after the close.

The offer price of SGD 0.140 translates to a premium of 5.9% and 10.9% to Ying Li’s 1-month and 3-month VWAP, respectively but less than a 1% premium to last trade – the company’s shares closed at SGD 0.139 on 3rd April before the announcement. The company asked for a trading halt the next morning and the shares have not traded yet as the large shareholder disclosures have come trickling in on the 4th and the 5th.

The acquirer has stated that it is their present intention to maintain the listing status of the company. However, the acquirer also reserves the right to reevaluate this position if the free float falls below the 10% requirement specified in the listing rules following the completion of the offer. 

This is something like a free put for investors and a very low-priced call option for Everbright. The situation raises obvious questions, and despite the “intention” to maintain the listing status, there are reasons why they would not want to. The details are worth a look.

Quiddity’s new Quiddity Singapore M&A Guide 2019 is now published with guidelines to the relevant rules, regulations, documentation, and pointers to the Singapore M&A landscape. Watch for more in the series to be published shortly.

3. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.4% for IPOs and 63.5% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Changliao AKA 派派(Hong Kong, ~US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Leong Hup – comeback sunny side up
• Polycab India eyes to raise around Rs 1,345 crore through IPO
• Carlyle-backed Metropolis Healthcare’s IPO nears halfway mark on second day
• Eagle Hospitality Trust eyes Singapore IPO to raise up to US$575m
• Cancer Treatment Firm Plans Hong Kong IPO
• Goldman-Backed Chinese Online Pet Store Boqii Plans IPO
• China drone maker EHang delays IPO plan, eyes private funding-sources

This week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Map Aktif Follow-On Offering – Lace up for a Potential Long Run
• Zhongliang (中梁地产) Pre-IPO Review – Incredible Growth Bogged Down by Related Party Transactions
• CIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
• PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
• Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained

4. Battery Technology- The Key To An Electric Vehicle Future

The Insight is structured as follows:

• A. Key  Conclusions
• B. Report Highlights
• C.History of Electric Vehicles
• E. History of Rechargeable Battery Technologies And An In-Depth Analysis on Li-ion Batteries
• F. Batteries Beyond Li-ion
• G. Supply Constraints for Key Raw Materials
• H. The Competitive Landscape

A. Key  Conclusions

Global sales of EV’s reached 2m units in 2018. As a base case scenario, we expect a combination of improving EV battery cost-effectiveness, increasingly challenging emissions standards and ongoing incentives by various governments to propel unit sales to 8m units annually by 2025. Against this, we consider battery material price increases, a reduction of EV incentives in the US and China and political and environmental risks from the mining of metals used in batteries as downside risks which could delay the growth of the EV market.

Surprisingly, the EV battery technology that will drive us towards that 8m unit goal is still very much a work in progress. While Lithium Ion is the by far the dominant technology, there are striking differences between variants of the technology, battery pack design, battery management systems and manufacturing scale between the leading contenders. Furthermore, while there’s nothing on the horizon to completely displace Lithium Ion within the next decade, it remains unclear whether the technology will be the one to achieve the $100/kWh price target that would make the EV cost-neutral compared to its internal combustion predecessors. 

Quite apart from the technology,  the EV battery segment faces other significant challenges including increasing costs for core materials such as Cobalt, increasing safety concerns as the mix of that very same cobalt is reduced in the cathode, the growing risk of litigation amidst a fiercely competitive environment and last but not least, the appetite of various governments to maintain a favourable subsidy framework. 

5. Guangzhou Rural: All the Shakespearoes?

I am partial to a bit of Confucius. Or to such thinking. Now and again. The chairman of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank (1551 HK) has a Confucian message (scholars will no doubt berate me) at the beginning of the report and accounts: “A single spark can start a prairie fire while a crack can lead to ice breaking”. From what I can glean, the chairman is alluding to the forty year process of China’s emergence. No satanic conflagration intended or any portends of global warming. For some reason, a tune by the 1970s new-wave group, The Stranglers, passed through my mind: “He got an ice pick that made his ears burn” and “They watched their Rome burn”. Cultural differences perhaps.

Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank (1551 HK) shares many of the issues that affect Chinese lenders today.  (The “Big four” are much less susceptible to deep stresses in this environment). Unsurprisingly, Asset Quality issues weigh on these results and earnings quality is subpar with trading gains and other assorted non-operating or “other items” playing a big part in the composition of Pre-Tax Profit. The latter flatters the “improving” headline Cost-Income ratio which is not really an indicator of greater efficiency here. In fact underlying “jaws” are highly negative. It is thus surprising that the wage bill should shoot up 30% YoY in such austere times. Given the aforementioned Asset Quality issues, such as booming substandard loans, ballooning credit costs, and high charge-offs, the “improving” NPL ratio is flattered by an exuberant denominator. Asset Quality does look volatile. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio and LDR duly eroded.

Where the bank does better, in contrast to many other Chinese lenders, is on Net Interest Income.  Guangzhou seems to have reduced its funding costs markedly. The bank managed to lower its corporate time deposit rates especially. The result is that Interest Expenses on Deposits rose by just 6.4% YoY. Liability management seems to be behind a reduction in Debt/Equity from 2.79x to 1.62x, thus decreasing Debt funding costs by 24% YoY. Spurred by corporate credit growth of 38% YoY, Interest Income on Loans climbed by 31% YoY. However, the bank does share an issue with some other lenders – a collapse in Interest Income on non-credit earning assets. This is, in part, due to a shrinkage of its FI holdings by some CN89.5bn. This means that despite the credit spurt, Interest Income in its totality edged up by barely 1% YoY. A disappointing performance on fee income (custody, wealth management, advisory) reduced Total underlying Income growth to 6% YoY. That 6% is all about rampant corporate credit supply and lower corporate deposit and debt interest costs.

Trends are thus decidedly mixed given the underlying picture behind the positive headline fundamental change in Efficiency, Asset Quality and ROAA. Liquidity deteriorated. It must be said that Provisioning was enhanced, Capitalisation moved in the right direction, while NIM and Interest Spread both improved.

In this briefing:

1. ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making

1. ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making

ESR Cayman (ESR HK) aims to raise up to US$1.5bn in its planned Hong Kong listing, as per media reports. The company is backed by Warburg Pincus and counts APG, the Netherlands’ largest pension provider, as one of its main investors.

ESR operates an end-to-end model starting from development of the asset to divesting it to one of its private funds and/or REITs. It operates in China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and India. AUM has grown rapidly over the past few years as the company has undertaken a number of acquisitions in the recent past. 

In this insight, I’ll touch upon the company’s business model and provide an overview of its operations. 

In this briefing:

1. Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap
2. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle
3. Battery Technology- The Key To An Electric Vehicle Future
4. Guangzhou Rural: All the Shakespearoes?
5. Singapore REIT – The Draft Master Plan 2019 Boost and Q1 Scorecard

1. Everbright Mandatory Offer for Ying Li Intl Real Estate – Going Cheap

On 3 April 2019, China Everbright (165 HK)‘s wholly owned subsidiary, State Alpha Limited, purchased 767,052,161 shares representing approximately 30.00% of the Shares in Singapore-listed property developer, Ying Li International Real Estate Ltd (YINGLI SP), from Newest Luck Holdings Limited (the vehicle of Executive Chairman and CEO Mr. Fang Ming) at a share price of SGD 0.140.

Following this transaction, the combined stake of China Everbright and parties acting in concert with it reached 58.91% triggering an obligation to make a mandatory offer for all the shares of Ying Li, a transaction which was announced after the close.

The offer price of SGD 0.140 translates to a premium of 5.9% and 10.9% to Ying Li’s 1-month and 3-month VWAP, respectively but less than a 1% premium to last trade – the company’s shares closed at SGD 0.139 on 3rd April before the announcement. The company asked for a trading halt the next morning and the shares have not traded yet as the large shareholder disclosures have come trickling in on the 4th and the 5th.

The acquirer has stated that it is their present intention to maintain the listing status of the company. However, the acquirer also reserves the right to reevaluate this position if the free float falls below the 10% requirement specified in the listing rules following the completion of the offer. 

This is something like a free put for investors and a very low-priced call option for Everbright. The situation raises obvious questions, and despite the “intention” to maintain the listing status, there are reasons why they would not want to. The details are worth a look.

Quiddity’s new Quiddity Singapore M&A Guide 2019 is now published with guidelines to the relevant rules, regulations, documentation, and pointers to the Singapore M&A landscape. Watch for more in the series to be published shortly.

2. ECM Weekly (6 April 2019) – Bilibili, Huya, Qutoutiao, Polycab, PNB Metlife, CIMC Vehicle

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.4% for IPOs and 63.5% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Changliao AKA 派派(Hong Kong, ~US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Leong Hup – comeback sunny side up
• Polycab India eyes to raise around Rs 1,345 crore through IPO
• Carlyle-backed Metropolis Healthcare’s IPO nears halfway mark on second day
• Eagle Hospitality Trust eyes Singapore IPO to raise up to US$575m
• Cancer Treatment Firm Plans Hong Kong IPO
• Goldman-Backed Chinese Online Pet Store Boqii Plans IPO
• China drone maker EHang delays IPO plan, eyes private funding-sources

This week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Map Aktif Follow-On Offering – Lace up for a Potential Long Run
• Zhongliang (中梁地产) Pre-IPO Review – Incredible Growth Bogged Down by Related Party Transactions
• CIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
• PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
• Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained

3. Battery Technology- The Key To An Electric Vehicle Future

The Insight is structured as follows:

• A. Key  Conclusions
• B. Report Highlights
• C.History of Electric Vehicles
• E. History of Rechargeable Battery Technologies And An In-Depth Analysis on Li-ion Batteries
• F. Batteries Beyond Li-ion
• G. Supply Constraints for Key Raw Materials
• H. The Competitive Landscape

A. Key  Conclusions

Global sales of EV’s reached 2m units in 2018. As a base case scenario, we expect a combination of improving EV battery cost-effectiveness, increasingly challenging emissions standards and ongoing incentives by various governments to propel unit sales to 8m units annually by 2025. Against this, we consider battery material price increases, a reduction of EV incentives in the US and China and political and environmental risks from the mining of metals used in batteries as downside risks which could delay the growth of the EV market.

Surprisingly, the EV battery technology that will drive us towards that 8m unit goal is still very much a work in progress. While Lithium Ion is the by far the dominant technology, there are striking differences between variants of the technology, battery pack design, battery management systems and manufacturing scale between the leading contenders. Furthermore, while there’s nothing on the horizon to completely displace Lithium Ion within the next decade, it remains unclear whether the technology will be the one to achieve the $100/kWh price target that would make the EV cost-neutral compared to its internal combustion predecessors. 

Quite apart from the technology,  the EV battery segment faces other significant challenges including increasing costs for core materials such as Cobalt, increasing safety concerns as the mix of that very same cobalt is reduced in the cathode, the growing risk of litigation amidst a fiercely competitive environment and last but not least, the appetite of various governments to maintain a favourable subsidy framework. 

4. Guangzhou Rural: All the Shakespearoes?

I am partial to a bit of Confucius. Or to such thinking. Now and again. The chairman of Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank (1551 HK) has a Confucian message (scholars will no doubt berate me) at the beginning of the report and accounts: “A single spark can start a prairie fire while a crack can lead to ice breaking”. From what I can glean, the chairman is alluding to the forty year process of China’s emergence. No satanic conflagration intended or any portends of global warming. For some reason, a tune by the 1970s new-wave group, The Stranglers, passed through my mind: “He got an ice pick that made his ears burn” and “They watched their Rome burn”. Cultural differences perhaps.

Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank (1551 HK) shares many of the issues that affect Chinese lenders today.  (The “Big four” are much less susceptible to deep stresses in this environment). Unsurprisingly, Asset Quality issues weigh on these results and earnings quality is subpar with trading gains and other assorted non-operating or “other items” playing a big part in the composition of Pre-Tax Profit. The latter flatters the “improving” headline Cost-Income ratio which is not really an indicator of greater efficiency here. In fact underlying “jaws” are highly negative. It is thus surprising that the wage bill should shoot up 30% YoY in such austere times. Given the aforementioned Asset Quality issues, such as booming substandard loans, ballooning credit costs, and high charge-offs, the “improving” NPL ratio is flattered by an exuberant denominator. Asset Quality does look volatile. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio and LDR duly eroded.

Where the bank does better, in contrast to many other Chinese lenders, is on Net Interest Income.  Guangzhou seems to have reduced its funding costs markedly. The bank managed to lower its corporate time deposit rates especially. The result is that Interest Expenses on Deposits rose by just 6.4% YoY. Liability management seems to be behind a reduction in Debt/Equity from 2.79x to 1.62x, thus decreasing Debt funding costs by 24% YoY. Spurred by corporate credit growth of 38% YoY, Interest Income on Loans climbed by 31% YoY. However, the bank does share an issue with some other lenders – a collapse in Interest Income on non-credit earning assets. This is, in part, due to a shrinkage of its FI holdings by some CN89.5bn. This means that despite the credit spurt, Interest Income in its totality edged up by barely 1% YoY. A disappointing performance on fee income (custody, wealth management, advisory) reduced Total underlying Income growth to 6% YoY. That 6% is all about rampant corporate credit supply and lower corporate deposit and debt interest costs.

Trends are thus decidedly mixed given the underlying picture behind the positive headline fundamental change in Efficiency, Asset Quality and ROAA. Liquidity deteriorated. It must be said that Provisioning was enhanced, Capitalisation moved in the right direction, while NIM and Interest Spread both improved.

5. Singapore REIT – The Draft Master Plan 2019 Boost and Q1 Scorecard

Singapore REITs (S-REITs) are up about 13% year-to-date in 2019 on a total returns basis against the Straits Times Index’s (STI) 8.3%. S-REITs is expected to continue its outperformance on the back of a pause in the US interest rate hike cycle, falling Singapore government bond yields, and improving demand and supply dynamics in the underlying sub-markets. Valuations of many S-REITs, however, may be appearing stretched as S-REITs’ yields have compressed significantly in the last six months, leaving the yield spread over the 10-year Singapore government bond yield at about 350 basis points, which is lower than the historical average spread of about 370 basis points.

Contrary to the popular belief that retail malls are no longer relevant, we view the outlook of the retail space market as positive due to the limited new supply from 2020 and new trend towards omnichannel retailing.  Our preference remains on selected retail REITs with exposure to suburban malls such as Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) .

Office REITs are given more legs to run with the new CBD incentive scheme in the URA Draft Master Plan 2019. The sustained office upcycle may also spill over to the business parks and hi-specs industrial space, benefiting some of the business parks/industrial REITs.

We prefer selected industrial REITs with a diversified geographical exposure such as Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) and those with greater exposure to business parks and high-specs industrial space.

Referring to our earlier report Singapore REIT – Preferred Picks 2019 , two of our preferred picks, Mapletree Logistics Trust and Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) (now known as Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust), were among the top five S-REITs performers year-to-date, having achieved the same total return of 17.6%. Manulife Us Reit (MUST SP) and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP), also did well, beating the STI with total returns of 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively.

In this briefing:

1. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas
2. Japan – Chinese Flu
3. China Tower Results Confirm Lower Capex Outlook, but Were Otherwise Mixed
4. ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making

1. ECM Weekly (9 March 2019) – Lyft, Shenwan Hongyuan, RHB Bank, Sea Ltd, Xinyi Solar, China Gas

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

• Ruhnn (the U.S, ~US$200m)
• Sun Car Insurance (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
• Sichuan Languang Justbon Services (Hong Kong, ~US$100m)
• Mabpharm (Hong Kong, re-filed)
• Intellicentrics (Hong Kong, CLSA sole-sponsor, likely to be <US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

News on Upcoming IPOs

• Chinese drone maker EHang plans US IPO
• Airport REIT could finance Singapore’s massive infrastructure ambitions
• PNB MetLife Insurance IPO likely in Q2FY20

Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO

• Lyft IPO Preview
• Lyft IPO Preview: Maybe We’ll Just Walk?
• LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing
• Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield
• Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A Commoditized Broker Business
• Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
• Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

2. Japan – Chinese Flu

By Konstantinos Venetis, Senior Economist

• Japan skirts recession but near-term prospects remain weak
• Deflationary headwinds to persist in H1, threatening business spending
• Recovery likely in late 2019 as world trade finds a firmer footing

3. China Tower Results Confirm Lower Capex Outlook, but Were Otherwise Mixed

China Tower (788 HK) reported 4Q18 results that looks slightly disappointing. However, they did deliver strong net profit, confirmation that capex is likely to materially undershoot guidance, and the first dividend for the company. However, while that is positive, there were areas of disappointment, with weaker revenue growth and EBITDA.

Our view remains that China Tower’s shares are relatively undervalued and expect share prices to continue to move higher over time, as the stock reflects its inflecting ROIC. It remains our favored name in China given the risks of policy driven over-investment into 5G (see Chinese Telcos: Rising 5G Capex Risk Leads to Another Downgrade).

4. ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making

ESR Cayman (ESR HK) aims to raise up to US$1.5bn in its planned Hong Kong listing, as per media reports. The company is backed by Warburg Pincus and counts APG, the Netherlands’ largest pension provider, as one of its main investors.

ESR operates an end-to-end model starting from development of the asset to divesting it to one of its private funds and/or REITs. It operates in China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and India. AUM has grown rapidly over the past few years as the company has undertaken a number of acquisitions in the recent past. 

In this insight, I’ll touch upon the company’s business model and provide an overview of its operations.