Category

Indonesia

Aug 28
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Medco Energi, Criterium Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Flow rate of up to 8 mmcf/d at South East MGH. Reducing FY25 capex guidance

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Yuexiu Property, Xiaomi Corp, Nissan Motor
  • The UST curve twisted steeper yesterday, as front-end yields declined on the back of a solid auction for 2Y notes. That said, long-dated yields ended higher, amid concerns over the US central bank’s independence after President Donald Trump moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 4 bps to 3.68%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 1 bp at 4.26%.
  • Equities climbed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up 0.4% at 6,466 and 21,544, respectively

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Flow rate of up to 8 mmcf/d at South East MGH. Reducing FY25 capex guidance

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The SEM-01 well at South East MGH flowed 7–8 mmcf/d on test on 40/54” and 48/64” choke sizes.
  • Further choke expansion was constrained by surface facility limitations.
  • This follows the MGH-20 well at North MGH, which flowed at 2.8 mmcf/d on test.

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Aug 27
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Austindo Nusantara Jaya and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Austindo (ANJT IJ): First Resources (FR SP)’s MTO

Austindo (ANJT IJ): First Resources (FR SP)’s MTO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 10th March 2025, First Resources (FR SP) entered into a SPA to acquire a 91.17% stake in oil plantation producer Austindo Nusantara Jaya (ANJT IJ).
  • The completion of the transaction would trigger an mandatory tender offer (MTO). The sale was completed on the 6th May. 
  • The MTO kicks off today. The Offer Price is IDR 1,813/share. Payment is the 3rd October.

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Aug 25
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bayan Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium

Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium

By Rahul Jain

  • Bayan Resources delivered solid H1 2025 results with strong volumes and margins but faces an ambitious ramp-up challenge in H2 to meet full-year targets.
  • The company’s 2025 guidance calls for 70–72 million tonnes sales, revenue of US$4.1–4.4 billion, and EBITDA of US$1.4–1.6 billion, supported by Tabang expansion and stable costs.
  • Despite solid fundamentals, Bayan trades at a steep premium with P/E of ~39x and EV/EBITDA of ~27x, far above Indonesian coal peers.

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Aug 20
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Amman Mineral Internasional and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) – Q1 Weak, Forecasts Cut, Stock Fully Priced

Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) – Q1 Weak, Forecasts Cut, Stock Fully Priced

By Rahul Jain

  • Q1/H1 2025 results: Revenue collapsed (–88% YoY) and EBITDA turned negative due to concentrate export expiry and slow smelter ramp-up.
  • Earnings revisions: FY25–26 cut sharply (–60–70% vs earlier estimates), with normalization only from FY27.
  • Valuation: At ~USD 38bn (IDR 8,400/share), AMMN already prices in Elang optionality; conservative SOTP points to 20–25% downside, leaving the stock fully valued.

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Vale Indonesia Tbk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Vale Indonesia: Struggle Against Weak Nickel Continues

Vale Indonesia: Struggle Against Weak Nickel Continues

By Graeme Cunningham

  • INCO’s rally could slow as the industry outlook remains weak and its ongoing major operational transformation may not be fully derisked and priced in until well into 2026 
  • Q2/25 remained challenging with revenue inline but a major net income miss, as weak nickel offset rising volume and strong cost control, with margins and ROE near zero
  • While the 2025E P/B of 0.9x has priced in a large degree of industry distress, we still see risks of stagnation for the prices of both nickel and INCO

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Aug 13
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Amman Mineral Internasional and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

By Brian Freitas

  • The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
  • We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
  • The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.

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Aug 08
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ): Surprise, Surprise!

By Brian Freitas

  • Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be added to a global index in August and that should come as a surprise to most of the market.
  • The stock is up 10x over the last 18 months and liquidity has shown a marked improvement in the last year.
  • Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) trades at nosebleed valuations and there is the risk of a sell off following index inclusion.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Bharti Airtel
  • UST yields ended mixed yesterday, with the curve twisting steeper, following a soft auction for 10Y notes that tailed by 1 bp.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST declined 1 bp to 3.71%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.23%. Equities rebounded from Tuesday’s dip, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition

Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition

By Punit Khanna

  • Unicharm Indonesia looks very attractive on the basis os excess cash on its books and cash flow it generates. Trades at <1x EV?EBDITA
  • Its number 1 diaper and feminine pads company which is facing earnings headwinds
  • Any plans by the management to return cash, consumer demand recovery can lead to rerating in the stock.

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Aug 05
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

StubWorld: Indofood (INDF IJ) Trading Rich To Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

By David Blennerhassett

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Jul 31
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, Criterium Energy, Nickel Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion & The Risks
  • Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): On track for first gas in 1Q26
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion & The Risks

By Brian Freitas

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): On track for first gas in 1Q26

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The MGH-20 well in the North Mengoepeh (MGH) field tested 2.8 mmcf/d with associated oil.
  • This is a positive surprise as there are currently no estimated resources at the field that was shut in in 2014.
  • • Following the extended well test at SE-MGH, Criterium plans to initiate extended testing on MGH-20 and three additional shut-in wells on the North MGH well pad.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nickel Industries
  • UST yields declined meaningfully yesterday, supported by a strong auction of 7Y notes and following a weaker than expected June JOLTS report. In addition, investors may have moved to lock in yields ahead of the Treasury Department’s refunding announcement and FOMC rate decision today.
  • The UST curve bull-flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 6 bps to 3.87%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 9 bps at 4.32%. Equities retreated from record-high levels. The S&P 500 snapped a six-day winning streak, declining 0.3% to 6,371.

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