Category

Macro

Daily Brief Macro: Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues
  • Bond Vigilantes and Trade Tensions Derail the Momentum Bull
  • Sell America = Buy Gold
  • Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April


Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues

By Rikki Malik

  • A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
  • What are major global bond markets telling us about the world?
  • We look at potential beneficiaries  of the next wave of inflation 

Bond Vigilantes and Trade Tensions Derail the Momentum Bull

By Cam Hui

  • The stock market advance is due for a pause and faces numerous headwinds.
  • The rise of the bond vigilantes, elevated valuation and heightened earnings risk, and narrow leadership combined to increase risk.
  • Tactically, the S&P 500 is breaking down technically a pullback wouldn’t be out of line under the circumstances.

Sell America = Buy Gold

By Cam Hui

  • The Sell America investment theme is becoming as a dominant market narrative, and it’s bullish for gold.
  • It is driven by the combination of rising deficits, shaky bond markets, an increasingly hawkish Fed and policy uncertainty.
  • For a long-term perspective of the upside potential in gold, a point-and-figure chart of monthly gold prices shows a measured objective of almost $7,000.

Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April

By Sameer Taneja

  • The narrative surrounding China’s front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April’s total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
  • Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
  • We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).

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Daily Brief Macro: Why Interest Rates Are Shooting Up All Around the World and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Interest Rates Are Shooting Up All Around the World
  • Global Rates: SLR reform: Helpful, but not a panacea
  • Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?
  • HEW: Fiscal Anxiety As Rates Rise
  • [IO Technicals 2025/21] Bullish Momentum to Persist
  • Indian SR Prices Downward, But Domestic Demand Upbeat
  • CX Daily: Intel’s China Partners Expect New Chief to Usher in Growth


Why Interest Rates Are Shooting Up All Around the World

By Odd Lots

  • Markets are still active, with major moves in rates and currency
  • There are conflicting signals in the bond market, with concerns over inflation and the economy slowing down
  • Steven Englander from Standard Chartered discusses the dynamics of JGB and UST yields

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Global Rates: SLR reform: Helpful, but not a panacea

By At Any Rate

  • SLR reform is a high priority for US banking regulators, with potential changes to how Treasuries are calculated
  • The timeline for SLR reform is still in the early stages, with regulatory processes and personnel confirmations needing to be completed first
  • Potential scenarios for SLR reform include carving out reserves and dealer holdings of Treasuries from the SLR denominator to address liquidity and market functioning concerns

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • As the earnings season draws to a close, we look at Asian markets’/sectors’ EPS estimate progression during the reporting season and earlier. Specifically, we search for upward or downward inflections.
  • Korea and Taiwan had the strongest EPS upgrades during this reporting season, despite the trade uncertainties. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia also had decent upgrades. HK/China and India continue to be downgraded.
  • Korean and Taiwanese technology, Korean industrials, HK Technology Services had strong upgrades. So did Singapore and Philippines financials, and Thailand Communications – the latter two with a long upgrade history.

HEW: Fiscal Anxiety As Rates Rise

By Phil Rush

  • Jitters over the sustainability of US fiscal easing knocked equities and the dollar over the past week. Dovish BoE pricing was pared back further towards our contrarian call.
  • UK inflation exceeded our already elevated forecast, while the manufacturing PMIs were broadly resilient again in May. UK retail data were also sensationally strong.
  • Next week is relatively quiet and shortened by a bank holiday. Flash inflation for some euro member states, updated US GDP data, and the RBNZ decision are our highlights.

[IO Technicals 2025/21] Bullish Momentum to Persist

By Pranay Yadav

  • Disappointing industrial production and consumer spending data from China, along with stagnant new housing prices, dampened investor sentiment.
  • Steel consumption remains robust even amid China’s property sector woes, as elevated mill activity and profitability at 60% of blast-furnace plants highlight the market’s core strength.
  • On the technical front, current prices remain above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a positive short-to-mid-term trend.

Indian SR Prices Downward, But Domestic Demand Upbeat

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Slipping butadiene costs impact prices of SBR, BR and NBR  
  • Near steady domestic production fails to match rise in consumption  
  • EPDM, Silicone Rubber prices near stable since February  

CX Daily: Intel’s China Partners Expect New Chief to Usher in Growth

By Caixin Global

  • Intel / In Depth: Intel’s China partners expect new chief to usher in growth 
  • Exporters /In Depth: China’s export engine reboots cautiously after tariff truce
  • Fraud /: China’s senior living scandal deepens as elder care giant faces fraud probe

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Daily Brief Macro: [ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • [ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears, Henry Hub Hit by Mild Weather and Storage Surge
  • The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle
  • PMI Goods Vibes
  • CX Daily: Chinese Tech Giants’ Struggle to Power AI Data Center Boom
  • Agricultural Flows Monitor: May 2025 Issue


[ETP 2025/21] WTI Slips on Oversupply Fears, Henry Hub Hit by Mild Weather and Storage Surge

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 16/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 1.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.9m barrel fall). Similarly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose.
  • The EIA reported a 120 Bcf storage build, exceeding analyst forecasts of an 118 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.
  • Barclays initiated coverage on Saudi Aramco with an ‘Overweight’ rating. Jefferies downgraded BP to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’, and Citigroup lifted its price target on Occidental Petroleum.

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

By Andreas Steno

  • Greetings from Copenhagen.
  • We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.
  • Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.

PMI Goods Vibes

By Phil Rush

  • Broad improvements in the flash manufacturing PMIs demonstrate ongoing resilience relative to consumers’ bad vibes. Goods trade seemingly shrugged off the tariff shock.
  • The UK was alone in weakening, but it is more susceptible to bad vibes, showing more noise than signal. April’s spurious lows were revised away and may repeat or rebound.
  • Transmission to unemployment also isn’t happening, leaving little case for easing unless recessionary pressures build, and the PMIs still hawkishly suggest that isn’t the case.

CX Daily: Chinese Tech Giants’ Struggle to Power AI Data Center Boom

By Caixin Global

  • Power / In Depth: Chinese tech giants’ struggle to power AI data center boom
  • Tariff /: China’s EV-battery makers get only temporary relief from U.S. tariff truce
  • Crypto /In Depth: Are Hong Kong’s crypto licenses worth it?

Agricultural Flows Monitor: May 2025 Issue

By DBX Commodities

  • Wheat: Futures at $4.90/bushel (lowest since mid-2020), reflecting ample global supply and subdued demand. U.S. production is projected to rise by 2% in 2025, though exports are expected to struggle against strong Russian competition.
  • Corn: Prices fell from $4.82/bu in April to $4.46/bu in May, driven by robust U.S. planting and higher production estimates from Brazil and Argentina. Despite the dip, USDA’s forecast of the lowest U.S. ending stocks in three years underscores tightening supply.
  • Soybeans: Climbed to $10.80/bushel in early May, the highest since July 2024, supported by U.S.-China tariff adjustments and solid Chinese demand for South American soy.

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Daily Brief Macro: UK Inflation Flies Hawkish Pressures and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK Inflation Flies Hawkish Pressures
  • Biden Era Tire Emission Rule In Bin; USTMA Welcomes It
  • Korea Value Up Index Rebalance Announcement Next Week
  • CX Daily: Why CATL Is So Revved Up About Battery Swapping Stations
  • Indonesia: 25bp Rate Cut To 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in May-25


UK Inflation Flies Hawkish Pressures

By Phil Rush

  • Our above-consensus forecast was exceeded by UK inflation flying higher in April amid administered price rises and postponed price increases due to the late Easter in 2025.
  • Airfares still soared 10pp more than the norm for a late Easter, and 20pp above the April average. This stoked service and core inflation, although the median was steadier.
  • We expect inflation to grind up until October, whereas the consensus assumes stability until then. Persistently excessive inflation should discourage the BoE from cutting again.

Biden Era Tire Emission Rule In Bin; USTMA Welcomes It

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • EPA regulation targeted previously unregulated emissions  
  •  USTMA calls it regulatory overreach that shoots up costs  
  • Move can bolster domestic manufacturing, competitiveness

Korea Value Up Index Rebalance Announcement Next Week

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Exchange plans to announce the first rebalance of the “Korea Value Up Index” next week on 27 May. The actual rebalance is expected to take place on 13 June.
  • Korea Exchange plans to reduce the constituents to 100 (from 105 currently) and change 30% of the included stocks in this index to better reflect the Value Up program incentives. 
  • In this insight, we provide a list of 20 potential exclusion candidates and 20 inclusion candidates in the Value Up index rebalance. 

CX Daily: Why CATL Is So Revved Up About Battery Swapping Stations

By Caixin Global

CATL /In Depth: Why CATL is so revved up about battery swapping stations

Drug prices /: How Trump’s proposed price cuts could hurt China’s innovative drugmakers

Law /: China to overhaul Prison Law in push for greater transparency


Indonesia: 25bp Rate Cut To 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in May-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • Bank Indonesia cut the BI-Rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, matching consensus forecasts and resuming monetary easing after a three-meeting pause, citing controlled inflation and rupiah stability.
  • The decision was driven by subdued inflation, a stabilised currency, and weaker-than-expected GDP growth, with BI revising its 2025 growth forecast slightly downward and emphasising the need to support domestic demand.
  • Future interest rate policy will remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if inflation and currency stability persist. Still, BI is expected to proceed cautiously given ongoing global uncertainties and the need to safeguard external resilience.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Macro: Asian Equities: Relative Valuation Divergence Opens up Index Trade Opportunities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Equities: Relative Valuation Divergence Opens up Index Trade Opportunities
  • Trump Doctrine: All Talk And No Trousers
  • Gold About To Lose Its Shine?
  • Vicuna Mines: Shaping Up to Big, But Production Far Out
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 19 May
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 19 May
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/20] US Tariffs Weigh on China’s April Economic Performance
  • Reducing China-US Trade Tensions Requires Better Alignment of Economic Interests
  • Steno Signals #197 – The Mood(Y)’s Is Bad in the Fiat
  • Indian Economy – May 2, 2025


Asian Equities: Relative Valuation Divergence Opens up Index Trade Opportunities

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • A glance at the growth-adjusted valuations of the Asian markets reveals that Korea and China are undervalued and India, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are overvalued.
  • We take a granular look at long histories of each market’s relative valuations, and their medium-term trends relative to long term averages. We combine the conclusions with growth-adjusted valuation outlook.
  • We conclude that HK/China, Korea, Indonesia and Philippines could be in for rerating in the near term. Derating could be on the cards for India, Singapore and Thailand.

Trump Doctrine: All Talk And No Trousers

By Alastair Newton

  • The US has been extremely active in the international arena in recent weeks, particularly in trade and diplomacy.
  • Showmanship is currently taking precedence over substance in these activities.
  • This approach poses significant risks for both policymakers and investors.

Gold About To Lose Its Shine?

By The Commodity Report

  • The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.
  • According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.
  • The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it – relative to equities.

Vicuna Mines: Shaping Up to Big, But Production Far Out

By Sameer Taneja


Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 19 May

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil trends higher in recent weeks compared with Q1 2025, even with dip in premium in mid-May.
  • Group II domestic/export price premium trends higher after holding in relatively narrow range from mid-Nov 2024 to end-Q1 2025.
  • Narrow range contrasts with steeper fall in Group II export price-premium to VGO in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, followed by sharper recovery from end-Q1 2024.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 19 May

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.
  • Firm base oils values point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain high output.
  • Base oils values hold firm ahead of typical seasonal slowdown in demand in coming weeks in Asia, and from start of Q3 in Europe/US.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/20] US Tariffs Weigh on China’s April Economic Performance

By Pranay Yadav

  • China’s industrial output grew 6.1% YoY in April 2025, surpassing expectations but slowing from March’s 7.7% surge, as the economy sustained steady growth amid complex domestic and external challenges. 
  • Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% in April, missing expectations despite government stimulus. Cautious consumer sentiment persists amid economic challenges, subdued income growth, and concerns over U.S. tariffs.
  • Easing U.S.-China tensions are boosting Chinese market confidence, driving up steel production and iron ore demand. With inventories thinning, spot buyers may bid aggressively, lifting prices in the near term.

Reducing China-US Trade Tensions Requires Better Alignment of Economic Interests

By Said Desaque

  • China’s exporters do not share the same optimism as financial markets with respect to recent tariff truce with the US. Exporters expect more turbulence as the tariff truce nears expiration.
  • Higher direct investment by Chinese companies into the US via joint ventures and technology transfers could be a win-win outcome for both sides, given China’s low level of direct investment.
  • Alignment of economic interests could soften the blow to the global economy due to a smaller US trade deficit, involving China boosting consumption and the US boosting investment to export.

Steno Signals #197 – The Mood(Y)’s Is Bad in the Fiat

By Andreas Steno

  • Morning from Copenhagen ahead of a big week.
  • I was coincidentally sitting in front of the screens when Moody’s announced its downgrade of the US late in the Friday session, and the timing was admittedly peculiar—with just 5–10 minutes left of futures trading before the closing bell.
  • Back in August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US, it did spark a mild risk-off environment, with the long end of the yield curve continuing its upward trend.

Indian Economy – May 2, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • India’s economy is projected to continue the growing trends of past years, according to the IMF, with growth rates of real GDP of 6.20%, 6.27% and 6.47% in years 2025, 2026 and 2027 respectively, resulting to an all-time- high real GDP level of 225.778 trillion Indian Rupees.
  • Except for this, the country’s GDP per capita is also to reach all-time highs, from 130,336 Indian Rupees in 2024 all the way to 152,596 Indian Rupees in 2027.
  • The inflation rate in the last quarter of 2024 stood at 1.47% (QoQ), a lot higher than the same quarter of the previous year (0.13%- Q4 of 2023), but still lower than Q3 of 2025 which was 2.76%.

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Daily Brief Macro: Market Intel from a Commodity Trader & China Analyst and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Market Intel from a Commodity Trader & China Analyst
  • Top 100 Korean Firms with Highest Treasury Shares as % of Market Cap (Tender Offer and M&A Targets)
  • Gold for the 21st Century Episode 8 | Steve Lowe, Former Managing Director at Scotiabank
  • EA Inflation Steady In Spring 2025
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 19 May
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 19 May
  • Champion Iron Presentation, Iron Ore Cost Curve, and The Case For Green Steel
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/20] Henry Hub Tumbles on Soaring Supply and Subdued Demand Signals
  • Indian Tire Majors Launch ‘iSPEED’ To Empower 2 Lakh Rubber Smallholders
  • Philippine Politics: No Knockout, No Closure in Midterm Elections


Market Intel from a Commodity Trader & China Analyst

By Money of Mine

  • Discussion shifts towards the market consensus on China, highlighting a cyclical stabilization within a structural slowdown.
  • China’s credit cycle, green shoots in the economy, and property market are discussed.
  • Speaker shares insights on the Chinese real estate sector, mentioning a contraction and the need for new areas of investment.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Top 100 Korean Firms with Highest Treasury Shares as % of Market Cap (Tender Offer and M&A Targets)

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide an analysis of the top 100 companies with the highest percentage of treasury shares as a percentage of market cap. 
  • These 100 companies are prime targets of tender offers and M&As. Many of these companies have low PBR ratios.
  • Number five in this list is Telcoware (078000 KS) which just announced a tender offer by the CEO who is trying to take the company private. 

Gold for the 21st Century Episode 8 | Steve Lowe, Former Managing Director at Scotiabank

By SmarterMarkets™

  • Steve Lowe, former managing director at Scotiabank, discusses his experience leading the iconic Scotia metals business
  • Scotiabank’s success in the gold market was attributed to its broad scope and involvement in the physical business
  • Focus on client service and cooperation among regions contributed to Scotiabank’s success in the gold market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


EA Inflation Steady In Spring 2025

By Phil Rush

  • Signals about underlying inflationary pressures remain the most interesting aspect of another unrevised euro area print of 2.2% in April, with the core at 2.75%.
  • The median impulse was also steady at about a 2% annualised pace as national moves offset. Other statistical measures and wage growth remain stuck above the target.
  • We expect the ECB to cut again in June, alongside forecasts that will be lowered due to Euro appreciation. The tight labour market should discourage cutting to a loose setting.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 19 May

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could see earlier-than-usual seasonal slowdown in face of weak lube consumption and improving supply.
  • Asia’s lube demand falls at end-Q1 2025 from year-earlier levels.
  • Demand weakness shows signs of extending into Q2 2025 as uncertainty about US tariffs compounds signs of slowing economic growth.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 19 May

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold firm versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
  • Asia’s Group II light-grade prices slip vs feedstock/gasoil prices faster than heavy grades and faster than Group I light grades.
  • Supply-demand fundamentals likely to improve for light and heavy grades in coming weeks as plant maintenance draws to a close and demand slows.

Champion Iron Presentation, Iron Ore Cost Curve, and The Case For Green Steel

By Sameer Taneja

  • We summarize our gleanings from the Champion Iron (CIA AU) presentation, which captures the cost curve and other interesting details on the DRI market. 
  • After declining below 100 USD/ton for 2 weeks, iron ore prices have slowly inched up towards 100 USD/ton, maintaining their level at the high end of the cost curve. 
  • A 100 USD/ton level bodes well for the cash flows of the larger low-cost players like Vale (VALE US), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/20] Henry Hub Tumbles on Soaring Supply and Subdued Demand Signals

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 16/May, U.S. natural gas prices dropped by 12.2% on the back of mild weather, rising output, and lower LNG export flows.
  • For the week ending 09/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 110 Bcf, moderately lower than analyst expectations of a 111 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.92 on 16/May compared to 09/May. Call OI increased by 3.5% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.3%.

Indian Tire Majors Launch ‘iSPEED’ To Empower 2 Lakh Rubber Smallholders

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • US$16.9 mn initiative to enhance productivity and quality in Northeast  
  • Stress on sheet-making infrastructure to fetch better price for farmers  
  • INROAD creates over 136,000 new smallholders in the Northeast  

Philippine Politics: No Knockout, No Closure in Midterm Elections

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • While Duterte-allied candidates secured a strong showing in the Senate elections, they lack sufficient numbers to form a veto block against Sara’s impeachment. 
  • Despite the Senate setback, Marcos can still govern viably from his allies’ substantial lower house majority and by forming new coalitions with a revitalised liberal, non-aligned bloc.  
  • Even as policy will largely be unaffected by the elections, intra-elite politicking will continue to shape political dynamics in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election.  

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Daily Brief Macro: S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest
  • “What-Ifs”
  • What the Trade Détente Means for Investors


S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest

By Cam Hui

  • The bullish recovery of the S&P 500 has been astounding in speed and magnitude.
  • We are upgrading the signal of our Trend Asset Allocation Model from bearish to neutral.
  • In the short run, the rally has left the market extended and it may need to take a breather.

“What-Ifs”

By Thomas Lam

  • What if the proportion of core CPI categories experiencing upward inflation momentum is on the rise?
  • What if the improvement in the more persistent categories of CPI inflation has more-or-less stalled?
  • What if longer-term inflation expectations are no longer wiggling sideways or actually creeping higher?

What the Trade Détente Means for Investors

By Cam Hui

  • The prospect of a Sino-American trade détente has taken recession risk off the table. 
  • The S&P 500 is on course to recover from a bear market, but faces headwinds from policy unpredictability. 
  • Investors should position in a diversified portfolio of global assets and gradually diversify away from USD exposure.

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Daily Brief Macro: Overview #26 -Is the Bear Market Over and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Overview #26 -Is the Bear Market Over, and Are We Back to the Races?


Overview #26 -Is the Bear Market Over, and Are We Back to the Races?

By Rikki Malik

  • The 90-day pause in tariffs between China and the US provides “tremendous” opportunities
  • The headline volatility allows investors to scale in and out of positions
  • Where we could be wrong in assuming the bear market is still on

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Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Dovish Arguments Ageing Poorly and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • HEW: Dovish Arguments Ageing Poorly
  • Bitcoin, Buffett, and the Barbarians at the Gate | Ep. #020 – The New Barbarians Podcast
  • 173: The End of US Equity Dominance? With Chris Wood, Global Strategist and Author of ‘Greed and …
  • Fixed Income: The US-China Détente: Implications for Asia
  • [IO Technical 2025/20] Bullish Momentum Builds
  • China Economics: Tough Times Despite Positive Trade Talks
  • OPEC, EIA, and IEA Deliver Mixed Signals Amid Trade Uncertainty and Oversupply Concerns
  • Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?
  • CX Daily: China’s Public Hospitals Face Debt Crisis Amid Health Care Reforms
  • Tunisia, May 16th 2025 ,


HEW: Dovish Arguments Ageing Poorly

By Phil Rush

  • Equity and rates market prices normalised further as data remains too resilient to prompt cuts, and US trade policy still seems to be reversing its destructive aspects.
  • UK GDP boomed beyond expectations again, albeit amid residual seasonality. US CPI data were soft and stable, as companies appeared to have smoothed the tariff shock.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data could compound the pressure by exceeding the consensus to reach 3.4% on the CPI. The flash PMIs and RBA decision are other timely highlights.

Bitcoin, Buffett, and the Barbarians at the Gate | Ep. #020 – The New Barbarians Podcast

By William Mann

  • Market experiencing steepening yield curve, potentially indicating higher inflation and stronger growth
  • Stocks rallying, with significant moves in earnings yield and small caps
  • Asia and Europe markets up, Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell all posting gains; Gold and Bitcoin down, Oil up, Vix down

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


173: The End of US Equity Dominance? With Chris Wood, Global Strategist and Author of ‘Greed and …

By The Money Maze Podcast

  • US stock market dependency on world index has increased significantly, reaching around 65-67%
  • Tariffs implemented by Trump have had a bearish impact on stock market
  • Small cap underperformance in US market is at its highest in 25 years, leading to interesting valuation opportunities

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Fixed Income: The US-China Détente: Implications for Asia

By At Any Rate

  • US and China have seen reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on China now around 41%
  • The macro impact of this reduction includes potential growth for the full year and quarterly profile
  • Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing may need to be adjusted based on the current tariff situation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[IO Technical 2025/20] Bullish Momentum Builds

By Pranay Yadav

  • Iron ore futures surged to a six-week high as U.S.-China trade tensions eased, with both nations agreeing to sharply reduce tariffs for 90 days, boosting market sentiment and commodity demand. 
  • Underlying demand remains weak, with China’s steel consumption pressured by a cooling property sector and ongoing structural shifts across its broader economic landscape. 
  • On the technical front, the outlook is turning increasingly bullish as prices are holding above key moving averages. 

China Economics: Tough Times Despite Positive Trade Talks

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The US and China have taken on a more constructive approach to their trade differences. Tariff rates will be immediately reduced significantly, and further talks will be held as well. 
  • Still, the fundamental misalignment in interests and contradictory negotiating styles make elusive a substantive deal that restores bilateral trade to its pre-escalation level. 
  • For China, falling export profitability and rising protectionism will limit further export growth. Economic recovery is held back by frailty in manufacturing and consumption.

OPEC, EIA, and IEA Deliver Mixed Signals Amid Trade Uncertainty and Oversupply Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • OPEC held its 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts steady. The IEA’s upward revision reflects a catch-up adjustment for 2024, not a fundamental shift in its forward outlook.
  • The EIA raised its demand growth forecast by 7.8% for 2025 but cut estimates by 13.5% for 2026. Meanwhile, it raised supply forecasts and projected inventory builds for both years.
  • The EIA expects Henry Hub prices to rise in 2025 and 2026 from current levels, though it revised its 2025 forecast 3.5% lower and lifted 2026 estimates by 4.3%.

Soybean Surge: Is the Momentum Ripe for More Gains?

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • After falling to a 2025 low, Bean prices have rallied strongly to clock a nine-month high. Macro conditions augur well for the rally to be sustained. 
  • Implied vols on bean options have dropped even as prices rise. Spike in skew points to reduced demand for downside risk hinting at upward price buoyancy.  
  • Technical charts paint a broadly bullish picture with potential for rally ahead remaining intact. However, the bullish momentum might take a breather in the near term.   

CX Daily: China’s Public Hospitals Face Debt Crisis Amid Health Care Reforms

By Caixin Global

  • Hospitals /In Depth: China’s public hospitals face debt crisis amid health care reforms
  • Rare earth /China resumes rare earth exports under tight controls as global prices soar
  • Autos /China’s auto boom in Russia cools as tariffs, taxes and geopolitics bite

Tunisia, May 16th 2025 ,

By Denis Collot

  • What is a bit of extra cash between friends ? Do numbers mean anything anymore ?
  • Long before Trump’s visit to the Gulf, promises of incredible investments were flying around.
  • Now that the President touched ground we see a bit better. Saudi Arabia was first to fire and it will be 600 bn $ of commitments. 

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Daily Brief Macro: UK: Spurious H1 Surge Again and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK: Spurious H1 Surge Again
  • The Drill – When the Facts Change, So Do We
  • Asian Equities: Launching Our Asia Ex Japan Model Portfolio
  • Commodity Equity Monitor: May 2025 Issue
  • CX Daily: China’s Exporters Get More Help to Withstand Trump’s Trade War
  • [ETP 2025/20] WTI Skittish on Trade Hopes and Oversupply Fears; Henry Hub Falls on Tepid Demand
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 16 May 2025


UK: Spurious H1 Surge Again

By Phil Rush

  • GDP’s resurgence caught the consensus off guard, as it failed to recognise the residual seasonality still skewing activity growth into the first half of the year.
  • The 0.7% q-o-q outcome for Q1 matched our forecast and leaves a powerful carry-over to Q2, where GDP seems set to exceed the BoE’s 0.1% forecast at about 0.4% q-o-q.
  • Strength discourages another policy rate cut. Disappointment in H2 is the hangover, but we doubt it will motivate renewed easing amid excessive price and wage inflation.

The Drill – When the Facts Change, So Do We

By Andreas Steno

  • Greetings from Copenhagen.
  • The global macro landscape is shifting rapidly, with U.S. policy priorities evolving just as quickly.
  • The administration is now 1) refocusing on the Middle East, 2) signaling that a Ukraine–Russia deal is inching closer, and 3) initiating currency policy discussions with Asian nations—many of which are active FX manipulators.

Asian Equities: Launching Our Asia Ex Japan Model Portfolio

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • We launch the Emmer Capital Asia ex Japan Equity Model Portfolio. We shall measure the absolute and relative performance (vi-a-vis MSCI Asia-ex-Japan Index) of the portfolio and rebalance it monthly.
  • Our sector and market choices are governed by macro-economic and policy considerations. Asian consumption support, inflation divergence strengthening Asian currencies and market leading domestic exposures are some of the themes.
  • We are overweight HK/China, India, Korea; underweight Taiwan, ASEAN. We like consumer discretionary, communication services and technology, despite the latter’s global footprint. We prefer high ROEs and dividend yields.

Commodity Equity Monitor: May 2025 Issue

By DBX Commodities

  • Outperformers: Uranium, Coal & Battery Materials. The strongest performers this month were uranium and thermal coal producers, which benefitted from renewed institutional interest and long-term structural tailwinds.
  • Underperformers: Gold Miners, Energy, and Select Coal. Despite a +5.2% increase in the gold price, key miners such as Barrick Gold (-7.6%) and Agnico Eagle (-0.9%) underperformed
  • Equities vs Commodities. There was a notable decoupling between equity and commodity performance this month.

CX Daily: China’s Exporters Get More Help to Withstand Trump’s Trade War

By Caixin Global

  • Exporters / In Depth: China’s exporters get more help to withstand Trump’s trade war
  • China-U.S. /: U.S. tariff relief offers limited reprieve for Chinese small-parcel exporters
  • Takeaway /In Depth: JD.com wants to unseat China’s takeout king

[ETP 2025/20] WTI Skittish on Trade Hopes and Oversupply Fears; Henry Hub Falls on Tepid Demand

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 09/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 3.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2m barrel fall). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell.
  • The EIA reported a 110 Bcf storage build, slightly lower than the 111 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 2.6% above the five-year average.
  • Saudi Aramco’s Q1 profit fell 4.8% YoY but beat estimates by 2.8%. Morgan Stanley downgraded BP to Underweight from Equalweight, while HSBC lowered Chevron to Hold from Buy.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 16 May 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • US inflation remains elevated; interest rates likely to rise further amid persistent debt issuance and economic uncertainty.

  • India and China show signs of easing policy; monetary conditions improving in China, rate cuts expected in India.

  • Japan faces growth constraints due to full employment; focus should remain on globally exposed companies, not domestic demand.


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