Macro

• The search for candidates to replace Chairman Powell is rumoured to be underway, while political attacks have become broader, including large financial losses being incurred by the Fed.
• US equities are playing a game of chicken with President Trump, believing that threatened tariff increases will not be implemented. Total consumer spending impacted by higher tariffs is relatively small.
• Hitherto, in contrast to predictions, there is scant evidence of tariffs significantly impacting import prices or consumer prices to the potential detriment of Chairman Powell’s credibility.

• We call the stock market recovery off the April panic bottom as a “the dog that didn’t bark” market as there are few signs of speculative excess.
• Technical indicators are also supportive of higher prices in the short run
• The main risk to the bull is an unwelcome rise in inflation expectations, which could rattle the bond market as well as stock prices.

• Despite all of the dire headlines about tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union, the only trade war that matters is effectively over. China has won.
• In the short run, economic policy uncertainty is receding but it’s not fully normalized. It’s time to adopt a risk-on posture.
• In the long run, equity investors should not expect the S&P 500, which trades at forward P/E of 22, to continue to outperform global stocks in the next expansion cycle.

• In our previous insight, Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton, we highlighted upside risk to the LME price.
• Comex-LME spreads remain elevated at $ 2,500/ton levels, reflecting the impact of tariffs that haven’t yet been imposed, amid ongoing supply disruptions. Inventories, though, have stopped depleting on the LME. 
• We remain bullish on copper in the countdown to August 1st, where it is likely that tariffs of 50% are imposed on copper. 

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• Tariff chatter is a sideshow; the real focus should be  on the US Administration’s Fed plans
• Non-Chinese miners of rare earths and other strategic minerals will command a steep premium.

• Persistent upside inflation surprises and sticky wage growth are lifting hawkish market narratives, defying central bank and consensus hopes for a quick return to target.
• UK inflation jumped well above forecast in June, strengthening the hawkish case, while US core inflation shows tariffs adding to excessive underlying price pressures.
• Next week, attention turns to the ECB decision, July flash PMIs, and UK public finances, as markets weigh central banks’ willingness to ignore resurgent inflation.

• China’s Q2 GDP beat expectations, but nominal growth and the property sector remain weak despite strong exports and monetary support.

• Indonesia cut rates again, yet real rates are still too high to boost meaningful growth.

• Japan faces political uncertainty with likely election losses, raising concerns over its future role in global currency markets.

• Iron ore prices topped $100/ton as Beijing’s push on steel overcapacity and hopes of property support lifted sentiment, alongside tighter inventories fuelling restocking expectations.
• Rio Tinto’s early Simandou shipments from November sparked fresh interest, though RBC sees output reaching just 12 million tons by 2026, ramping up slowly.
• Prices are holding firm above key moving averages, pointing to continued upward momentum, while the MACD above its signal line reinforces the bullish trend.

• Chevron’s arbitration win over ExxonMobil unlocks Guyana’s Stabroek Block, a key asset underpinning its USD 53 billion Hess acquisition.
• SLB outperformed Q2 estimates despite YoY declines and also completed its ChampionX acquisition amid regulatory challenges.
• WTI crude found support late-week after better-than-expected economic data tempered demand fears, despite early pressure from inventory and macro concerns.

• With CPI inflation at 2.1%YoY in Jun’25, the real policy rate is +3.4% — higher than in Jan’25 (+2.19%) before the 100bp of repo rate cuts. 
• Despite a shift to a larger rate cut (accompanied by reductions in CRR), the RBI is still a bit behind the curve. We expect another 100bp of cuts by Feb’26. 
• Vegetable deflation will persist through H2CY25, so we expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.9% in FY26, obliging more rate cuts, enabling real GDP growth of 8.5%+ in FY26. 

• Dispute / Late beverage tycoon’s secret children go to war with official heir over billions
• Nvidia /: Nvidia will soon be allowed to resume sales of AI chips to China, CEO says
• AMCs /: China tightens rules for local AMCs to curb risks in bad-debt market

• As foreign automakers struggle to keep pace in China’s fast-evolving electric vehicle (EV) and smart car market, companies such as BMW are turning to top Chinese tech firms to stay in the race.
• BMW has signed a partnership with autonomous driving startup Momenta to co-develop advanced driver-assistance systems for its next-generation China-built models, which are due to launch in 2026. The deal represents a significant step in BMW’s local adaptation strategy as the German carmaker fights to reclaim its footing in its largest single market.
• Earlier this year, BMW announced collaborations with Huawei Technologies Co.

• UK payroll revisions removed most of May’s weakness, while wage and price inflation is too fast, yet the BoE probably won’t back down from an August cut as the UR rises.
• Fewer payroll inflows explain its downtrend, with <24yo suffering sustained pain, but the 25-64yo endure the taxation hit, structurally raising unemployment by ~0.5pp.
• Wage growth isn’t showing signs of new disinflationary demand pressures, so we expect excessive underlying wage and price trends to persist, not helped by an August BoE cut.

• Discussing research on gold and related metals with Dr. Dirk Bauer
• Examining the valuation of gold compared to other asset classes
• Differentiating between gold’s role as a hedge and a safe haven in times of financial turmoil

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• India / In Depth: India’s sputtering efforts to boost manufacturing investment
• Jobs /: More young Chinese are giving up on the job hunt, study says
• Batteries /: China tightens export rules to protect its lead in lithium battery tech

• 80 Mile 0.24p £9.45m (80M.L) The exploration and development Company updates on its interest in Greenswitch Srl and Hydrogen Valley.
• Greenswitch has signed a Memorandum of Understanding to sell up to 40,000 tonnes per year of biofuel to Tecnoparco to use in cogeneration units.
• This shortens the supply chain and helps to increase sustainability by moving away from palm oil. 

• Another quarter with soft conditions; a slowdown across most industries is expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies and weather headwinds for some others.
• Similar to previous quarters, we forecast on average margin contraction for our covered companies, as companies struggle with a weaker operating leverage (among other factors).
• In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, while upgrading Gruma to Market Perform (from Underperform). Overall, FX remains a key factor, albeit at a lower scale vs previously expected.

• UK inflation surged 0.2pp beyond the consensus again in June, with underlying inflation measures broadly inconsistent with the target and headlines moving the wrong way.
• The consensus is failing to learn the lesson of intense underlying pressures. The CPI rate rose 0.6pp since Jan instead of falling 0.4pp and is 1.4pp higher than called a year ago.
• Policymakers seem infected with dovish fear about the labour market ahead of August’s meeting. CPI is 0.9pp higher in our year-ahead forecast, and we were right a year ago.

• GDP / China’s GDP growth slows to 5.2% as domestic demand, property continue to weigh
• Railway /: Global interest in China’s high-speed rail tech picks up speed
• Consumption /In Depth: The consumption conundrum dividing China’s economists

• Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark rate by 25bp to 5.25% in July 2025, marking the fourth easing since September amid low inflation and strong foreign exchange reserves.
• The decision reflects confidence in 1.87% June inflation staying within the 2.5±1% target range, the stable rupiah supported by a robust intervention framework, and the need for growth stimulus.
• Future easing depends on continued inflation anchoring, currency stability, and global developments, including US trade policy and Federal Reserve actions affecting capital flows.

• Rebounding headline and core US inflation in June understated the underlying growth, with shelter rising at its slowest pace since August 2021. Tariff pain crept in belatedly.
• Commodities, less food, energy and car prices grew by 0.3% m-o-m, the fastest since Feb-23, and services (ex-shelter) hit 0.4% m-o-m, both inconsistent with the target.
• Less than half of the post-election surge in expectations has survived so far. Further rises remain likely, even if sustained avoidance smooths and reduces the full impact.

• In this insight, we discuss Korean government’s new task force for Korea to be included in a major global index. 
• Prior to this major market moving event, there will be some important signals. 
• One of the most important signals could be major global securities companies (such as IBKR/TD Ameritrade) allowing trading of Korean stocks to customers world-wide. 

• Given the copper tariff announcement this week, it seemed worthwhile to sketch out where the US gets its copper from, as the situation is not nearly as dire as a 50% tariff makes it out to be.
• We think a little context goes a long way in this situation and leads us to believe that the tariff is a wholly unnecessary impediment to a well-functioning market.
• If Trump were serious about achieving self-sufficiency in copper, he would focus on permitting reform, as we have plenty of domestic copper and only lack the smelting/refining capacity.

• The investment implications of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill are underweight US government debt and overweight US equities. 
• The bill is just plain old fashion demand side fiscal stimulus. 
• Favour momentum stocks with a sectoral bias towards  consumer discretionary, tech, industrials, traditional energy, defence. Underweight renewables and Treasuries and increase exposure to Bitcoin.

• Therapy /Cover Story: Controversial mind-body therapy attracts 1 million Chinese seeking miraculous cures
• Kindergarten /China province elevates probe into kindergarten lead-poisoning scandal
• Dialysis /In Depth: The illicit drug trade lurking behind ‘free’ dialysis

• Core PCE and CPI inflation remained at 4-year lows in Apr-May’25 despite Trump’s tariffs, although June core CPI inflation crept up MoM after further tariff hikes (on steel and aluminium).
• M2 growth of just 5.2%YoY (May’25) is a restraining factor on inflation. However, tariff hikes have been much higher than we expected, with most trading partners failing to negotiate reductions. 
• For consistency with 2024 cuts, the FOMC likely will cut rates this month. But the tariff hikes on most trading partners will push core inflation toward 3%, disallowing further cuts. 

• Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus vacuum gasoil at start of Q3 2025.
• Europe’s Group II base oils price-differentials hold unusually firm vs Group I and Group III base oils at start of Q3 2025.
• Europe’s Group II base oils price-premium to Asia/US prices trends higher from early-Q2 2025.

• US Group II base oils price-premium to heating oil edges lower, stays in narrow range since start of Q2 2025.
• Base oils price-premium stays rangebound even with expected improvement in supply and slowdown in demand in coming weeks.
• US base oils supply could rise more swiftly in coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.

• Asia heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds at elevated levels even as it slips from recent highs.
• High heavy-grade margins point to firm supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output of the grades.
• Besides firm margins, outperformance of regional Group I SN 500 price relative to other grades and other regions points to even stronger fundamentals for that product.

• US base oils demand could ease as seasonal slowdown in consumption coincides with rise in supply.
• Demand could get support from tighter surplus supply at start of Q3 2025 following recent plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets.
• Tighter surplus supply curbs prospect of any imminent price-adjustments at time of year when fundamentals typically weaken.

• Not surprised by recent events in the equity market, as it aligns with forecasted growth trends in Asia
• Transitory factors such as front loading and transshipment contributing to expected decline in H2 growth
• Expectation for central banks in the region to potentially ease rates in response to current economic conditions

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• President Trump’s tariff policy seemingly follows a random walk with a drift towards deals. Path dependency raises risks and uncertainty around his volatile whims.
• Corporate avoidance measures have spared their customers from most of the pain, but Vietnam’s deal as a template could belatedly bring more of the pain to bear.
• We assume most countries stay at 10%. The impact of others rising to 20% may be smaller than the anti-avoidance hit, with the total now worth less than 0.4% to UK GDP.

• Plant closures signal Europe’s industrial competitiveness crisis  
• Regulatory burdens over Europe’s retreading sector future  
• Weak enforcement and oversight cloud UK ELT exports   

• We are introducing a new regular series called “Korea: Short Selling Data Analysis.” We will try to provide this insight on a quarterly basis.
• Net short balance ratio for top 20 stocks in KOSPI averaged about 1.7% three months ago, much lower than current levels (3%).
• The average short interest ratio of these top 20 stocks in KOSPI with the highest short balance ratio was 2.6x as of 10 July 2025. 

• Asian currencies bottomed out in early April. FII flows turned positive in May. Flows into Taiwan are recovering the fastest, followed by those into Korea. India’s recovery is relatively tepid. 
• Flows into ASEAN remain negative – the lack of recovery, we think, is due to lack of macroeconomic catalysts, declining EPS estimates and trade related worries. We remain underweight ASEAN.
• We are overweight Korea (recovering EPS, cheapest, flows accelerating). We like Taiwanese tech, key beneficiary of investors’ renewed AI enthusiasm. Overweight on India, despite its overvaluation, stems from bottom-up ideas.

• Discussion covers topics including dollar signals, $CNY fixes, tariffs, and observations on Swiss and sterling
• Dollar remains bearish despite some systematic signals turning less bearish or even bullish
• Client sentiment may be shifting tactically towards throwing in the towel on the bearish dollar trend due to technical patterns, but long-term view remains unchanged

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• Trump announced a 50% Section 232 base tariff on copper imports starting August 1st
• The details of the tariff, including which products it applies to and any exemptions, remain unknown
• The arbitrage between London LME prices and US Comex prices has widened following the tariff announcement, with implications for copper prices in both regions.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• While it may seem as a logical step to compare the current cash price with the forward futures contract, that’s unfortunately way too easy to justify such a statement.
• In fact, it is even miss-information.
• What makes more sense is to look at the input cost factors and the forecasts for these components that the USDA is providing. 

• In Japan, disastrous showing of the LDP party in the Tokyo local elections, was its political Kamikaze. The true test will come with this month’s Upper House elections. 
• Voter frustration is mounting over the high cost of living. Real wages are contracting and retail sales volumes weakening.
• The Bank of Japan has changed tack and Trading Post is following suit, now forecasting that the policy interest rate will stay on hold for the rest of 2025.

• Asia’s base oils demand shows signs of facing weaker-than-usual pressure from expected seasonal slowdown in consumption coming weeks.
• Firmer prices for light grades relative to heavy grades, for Group I SN 500, and for prices in India point to ongoing pockets of buying interest even with seasonal slowdown in demand.
• Prices for Group II heavy grades by contrast weaken vs light grades and vs Group I base oils.

• We have been fairly cautious on equities in the past, but that’s changing. There is a bullish elephant in the room that is becoming evident and can’t be ignored.
• Market psychology had panicked and became overly concerned about left-tail risk. . Better, or less bad, news emerged and price momentum became dominant.
• Our base case scenario calls for the rally to continue into the August–September time frame.

• The passage of the Big Beautiful Bill in the US has raised concerns about the sustainability of sovereign debt across the world’s major economies. Demand for US Treasuries remains high.
• The seizure of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves raised concerns about the wisdom of holding dollar reserve assets, but there are currently no viable alternatives to US sovereign debt exposure.
• Governments have a range of choices for debt management, ranging from austerity to growth. The US is unlikely to ever embrace austerity and is better positioned to pursue growth strategies.

• We had called iron ore Iron Ore: Small Bounce From 96 to 100 USD/Ton As China Mill Margins Turn Positive, and we are now at 99 USD/ton.
• We continue to see mill margins benefit and the restock in the chain, including coking coal, which has started to move up, and forecast a gradual uptick to 110 USD/ton.
• We express our bullishness through owning Fenix Resources (FEX AU), a small-cap iron ore miner (read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News ) 

• The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has significantly outperformed the Hong Kong indexes in June and since inception. Outperformance range is 17% to 23% since inception.
• At the end of June, we sold positions in the tech sector after substantial gains. The portfolio’s exposure to the consumption sector was also trimmed, both discretionary and staples.
• The portfolio added exposure to the metals refining sector and initiated positions in conglomerates Shanghai Industrial Holdings (363 HK) and Citic Ltd (267 HK) .

• Silver prices have rallied ~24% over the past 12 months, driven by strong industrial demand (solar, EVs) and renewed investor interest amid inflation concerns.
• With a fourth consecutive market deficit and accelerating demand from clean energy applications, the setup points to a multi-year bullish cycle—especially if real rates remain subdued.
• This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the silver market’s recent performance, long-term demand-supply dynamics, key producers’ sensitivity to price movements, and valuation-driven investment opportunities.

• Trump kicked the tariff can a few weeks to 1 August, leaving other policymakers and markets in a wait-and-see mode. Pricing was little changed amid little news elsewhere.
• We thematically explored the market implications of resilience rolling cuts later, how healthy the US labour market data is, and dug into the UK’s political problems.
• Next week’s UK labour market and inflation data are critical ahead of an August BoE decision we believe remains finely balanced. US and EA inflation are other highlights.

• Amid the uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations, Asian economies will have to provide fiscal and monetary boost to their domestic economies. They can’t rely on exports to sustain their growth.
• Asian economies shall likely provide more monetary stimuli than fiscal. Rapidly declining inflation affords their central banks larger wiggle room. China, Korea India, Indonesia, Philippines have room to cut rates.
• Fiscal stimulus is more contentious. China and Indonesia have articulated targets of expanding fiscal deficit and public debt. Korea’s low public debt and low bond yield affords some fiscal room. 

• Japan faces falling real wages and persistent inflation, with policy inaction likely to continue until late 2025.

• The Vietnam-US trade deal risks undermining WTO rules and global trade norms.

• China’s falling producer prices reflect healthy economic adjustment through market-driven consolidation.

• Trump signs executive order reducing tariffs on UK exports and lowering taxes on Chinese goods
• US and China announce reduction in tariffs, leading to relief for Americans and investors
• Despite initial shock and market volatility, US economy appears to be holding up despite tariff impacts

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• India’s $736.3 billion external debt creates liquidity risks with 42.4% short-term obligations, while ECB borrowings surge five-fold to $7.8 billion in Q4 FY25.
• Trump’s 26% reciprocal tariff threat appears as negotiating theater rather than economic warfare, with 90-day suspension revealing choreographed concessions strategy.
• India’s $696.65 billion forex reserves provide 11-month import cover, but widening trade deficits and debt vulnerabilities challenge long-term resilience narratives.

• Iron ore demand remains strong as supply tightens from Australia and Brazil, and China pushes for industrial reforms that could support raw material prices.
• Despite macroeconomic headwinds and Malaysian tariffs on Chinese steel, robust mill profits, and limited production curbs are expected to sustain iron ore demand.
• Prices are trading above key moving averages, suggesting ongoing upside momentum, while the MACD above its signal line confirms the prevailing bullish bias.

• Property / In Depth: The scam that turned China’s housing slump into a cash machine
• Education /In Depth: China’s preschoolers are stilling cramming for first grade
• Thailand /: Thailand’s casino plans stall amid political turmoil