Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Feb 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Hawks Re-Emerge + Epic “BARD” Fail Sinks Google; Pan Pac Beat/Subaru Miss and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |Hawks Re-Emerge + Epic “BARD” Fail Sinks Google; Pan Pac Beat/Subaru Miss

Good Morning Japan |Hawks Re-Emerge + Epic “BARD” Fail Sinks Google; Pan Pac Beat/Subaru Miss

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX -1.1% as Fed Hawks rhetoric ratches up; All 11 Sectors -ve as Beta Sold; ALPHABET-7.7% AI fails to impress; Disney +8% after-hours with earnings beat/job cuts.
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.8% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.41; Japan looking to ease restrictions for China Inbound;  EARNINGS: Pan Pac/SMM Strong vs weak Subaru which -ve production cut; Toyota out today.
  • DAILY NUGGETS. EPIC fail from Alphabet’s “BARD”. Aren’t these events supposed to  be choreographed ????

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Feb 08
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell – Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell – Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan
  • Antony Blinken, Balloon, China, Adani, Russia, Taiwan, Fed, US Dollar – We Didn’t Start the Fire

Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell – Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX resumes rally as Powell Speech affirms 5% Peak rates;   Beta dominates as Energy and Tech lead; Oil rebound as EIA sees higher Oil +  Saudis lift prices
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.1% (flat) vs Cash;  Inbound headwinds as China excludes Japan from Group tours;  Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo/Switch – its Over!
  • DAILY NUGGETS. Nintendo – Game Over. Is our view.  The Switch is getting old and we are past the peak..

Antony Blinken, Balloon, China, Adani, Russia, Taiwan, Fed, US Dollar – We Didn’t Start the Fire

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Since the US and China could not agree beforehand, it would be useless for Antony Blinken to come. Or only discuss the balloon?
  • Many people are worried about the escalation of Sino-US confrontation. The key to the occurrence of the Taiwan Strait War is who will become the new president of the US.
  • The three crises of the US dollar in the past 50 years have been redeemed by war, including “various forms of war”.Perhaps, we should get ready for a new era. 

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Feb 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 2/6
  • Global Semiconductor Sales Increase 3.2% YoY In 2022

Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX Pulls Back for 2nd day as Spy Balloons dominate – mkts just stretched;  Google responds to ChatGPT with BARD; Dell cuts headcount as PC struggle continues
  • JAPAN. NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with Sakura!
  • DAILY NUGGET. MHI  formalizes exit from Spacejet. No surprise as it has been on ice for 2 years.   Opportunity to put a positive spin on the $7bn failure.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 2/6

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • According to BeSpoke investment firm research, the top 10% of the most heavily shorted stocks are up an average of 36.3% so far this year.
  • This includes troubled retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) whose shares surged by more than 18% Thursday, a day after they missed a Feb. 1 interest payment and warned that it might file for bankruptcy within weeks.
  • Other stocks like online car dealer Carvana and any company which has anything remotely associated with artificial intelligence (AI) have seen similar spikes.

Global Semiconductor Sales Increase 3.2% YoY In 2022

By Semicon Alpha

  • According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global semiconductor industry sales totaled $573.5 billion in 2022, the highest-ever annual total and an increase of 3.2% compared to the 2021 total of $555.9 billion.
  • Monthly semiconductor sales peaked in May of 2022, reaching an all time high of %51.
  • This marked the culmination of almost two years of sequential monthly semiconductor sales growth, driven in large part by the pandemic-driven return to growth in both PC and smartphone unit sales.

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Feb 06
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ’s Amamiya “THE ONE” ? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ’s Amamiya “THE ONE” ?
  • China A-Share Consumer Staples: Good Outperformance
  • Macau Gaming Stocks Up, but Bigger Gains Ahead as Tailwinds Forming Faster than Official Forecast
  • The Innovations Portfolio – Week Eleven

Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ’s Amamiya “THE ONE” ?

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX Caps another winning week – now 4/5 for the year;  Blow out Jobs report but Wages slowing – Goldilocks ? Powell speaks this week as DIS, UBER report.
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor;  Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel rates;  Earnings this week – Watch Softbank
  • DAILY NUGGETS. NO ROCKING OF THE BOAT – BOJ Deputy Amamiya is set to take the mantle of leadership at the BOJ.

China A-Share Consumer Staples: Good Outperformance

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Macau Gaming Stocks Up, but Bigger Gains Ahead as Tailwinds Forming Faster than Official Forecast

By Howard J Klein

  • January’s big beat in Macau GGR indicative of our bull scenario call for a US$18b 2023 GGR.
  • Despite recent upside moves, we continue to believe Macau-centric stocks present a solid entry point level at this time.
  • The sector remains oversold as forward EBITDA estimates do not entirely bake in what we believe are continuing strong catalysts for the sector.

The Innovations Portfolio – Week Eleven

By Pyari Menon

  • The three companies we write about this week are Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO US), Ford Motor Co (F US) and Sonoco Products Co (SON US) 
  • For the eleven weeks since inception ended 3 Feb the combined innovation portfolio was +4.6%, versus DJIA +.5%, S&P500 +4.3%, Nasdaq +7.7%, Russell2000 +7.3%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +5.7%, all in US$ terms
  • Ironically or aptly it was at “China Lake” in California that the infrared technology in the AIM-9X Sidewinder missile that brought down the “spy/weather” balloon was developed.

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Feb 05
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEM Weekly (3 Feb 2023): China PMI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEM Weekly (3 Feb 2023): China PMI, South Korean Trade and Inflation Data; Baidu

GEM Weekly (3 Feb 2023): China PMI, South Korean Trade and Inflation Data; Baidu

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: Chinese PMI data, South Korean imports, exports, and inflation.
  • Companies mentioned:Baidu (9888 HK) (to launch ChatGPT bot, BlackRock ups its stake)

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Feb 04
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Travel and Tourism: Theme of the Year and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Travel and Tourism: Theme of the Year
  • Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec
  • Life Insurance: Is This Correction Deep Enough to Add?

Travel and Tourism: Theme of the Year

By Nitin Mangal

  • Travel and Tourism was one of the forefronts in the 2023-24 union budget speech.
  • While majority of the sectors have seen revival, the travel and tourism sector is still in recovery mode that awaits extraordinary growth.
  • Given the recent uptick in sectoral tailwinds and the conscious push by the government, travel and tourism looks set to be one of the ‘Theme of the year’.

Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec

By Mark Chadwick

  • Wage pressures continue to build in Japan. The country’s largest employer of part-time workers, AEON, is raising wages. Same goes for systems operator, TIS
  • It has been a disappointing year for shareholders of Z Holdings – perhaps a management change and new round of restructuring will help
  • Divergent fortunes for SPE names Screen and Lasertec. Suspect this has more to do with short term positioning. The fundamentals are broadly similar

Life Insurance: Is This Correction Deep Enough to Add?

By Nurture Capital Advisory

  • A primer to Life Insurance industry in India – industry size, breaking down key concepts, valuation.
  • A relatively better consumption theme compared to other expensive names with strong fundamentals, underlying growth and valuations.
  • However, it’s a late cycle play and while downside is protected, upside is capped as well. 

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Feb 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | SPX Breakout but After-Hours Earnings Sap FOMO; Sony Beat; Pana-Still Deciding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | SPX Breakout but After-Hours Earnings Sap FOMO; Sony Beat; Pana-Still Deciding
  • Losses Blow Out at China’s Airlines as Passengers Dip to 12-Year Low
  • APAC Sees 22% Drop in M&As While India Flourishes: Report
  • Sany Heavy, Zoomlion Warn of Tumbling Profits on Covid-Hit Economy
  • Shroom Shmooz: Controversies Surrounding Psychedelic Patents

Good Morning Japan | SPX Breakout but After-Hours Earnings Sap FOMO; Sony Beat; Pana-Still Deciding

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Another strong post Fed Day with SPX breaks 4100 level; Slew of big tech after hours: AMZN; Google, AAPL-Mkt doesn’t like; Ford, not to be left out, MISSES
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 128.69;  Mgmt Transitions,  Sony and Z-HD make changes; Earnings:  Sony +ve;  -ve Panasonic (but special case); Murata – last of bad news ?
  • DAILY NUGGETS. Panasonic – Still deciding. Seems we have to wait a bit longer on the impact of the IRA credits.

Losses Blow Out at China’s Airlines as Passengers Dip to 12-Year Low

By Caixin Global

  • China’s civil aviation industry plunged deeper into the red in 2022 as Covid restrictions effectively shut down international travel
  • However, there are hopes things may turn around quickly after the abandonment of the “zero-Covid” strategy last month
  • The country’s airline companies posted a combined loss of 216 billion yuan ($31.8 billion) last year, widening from 84.3 billion yuan in 2021 and 94.7 billion in 2020

APAC Sees 22% Drop in M&As While India Flourishes: Report

By Tech in Asia

  • M&A deals in the Asia Pacific cooled down in 2022, with the region’s overall transaction value dropping 22% year on year
  • India, however, bucked this trend by logging an all-time high for both strategic M&A deal volume and value
  • In Japan, while deal value fell by 20% in the first nine months of 2022, the volume remained at the same level as the previous year, suggesting a rise in small deals

Sany Heavy, Zoomlion Warn of Tumbling Profits on Covid-Hit Economy

By Caixin Global

  • A slowing economy due to repeated Covid-19 outbreaks and subsequent lockdowns delivered a one-two punch to Sany Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. last year
  • The company attributed the lackluster earnings estimate to the macroeconomic slowdown, which saw China’s GDP growth come in at the second-slowest in more than four decades
  • Sany’s profit warning serves as an indication of how China’s domestic construction machinery industry is struggling.

Shroom Shmooz: Controversies Surrounding Psychedelic Patents

By Water Tower Research

  • The resurgence of interest in psychedelic science and research, particularly since 2017, reinforced by the mental health consequences of the pandemic, has resulted in a significant pick-up in active clinical trials investigating the therapeutic value of a variety of psychedelics.
  • This, in turn, has led to a proliferation of patent applications as psychedelic drug developers seek to protect the intellectual property (IP) of their drug development efforts.
  • The United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has been inundated by hundreds of published patent applications on a variety of psychedelic compounds, led by psilocybin, with many more that have been filed provisionally.

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Feb 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Blast off ! “Disinflation Process Has Started”;AMD Spurs Tech Rally; Meta Beats and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Blast off ! “Disinflation Process Has Started”;AMD Spurs Tech Rally; Meta Beats
  • China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Good Morning Japan | Blast off ! “Disinflation Process Has Started”;AMD Spurs Tech Rally; Meta Beats

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  US stocks rally on Fed paus(ing); Duration gets extended spurring +5% SOX move; AMD results provide comfort for Semis; Meta Beats !  Off to the races!
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Yen Stronger at USDJPY 129.02 post Fed;  BOJ shows commitment buying  $180 bn JGBs in Jan;   Earnings: Positive Keyence; Negative Kyocera; Disaster Sumi Chemicals.
  • DAILY NUGGETS. Race for Talent. Japan retail major lifts wages, as (wage) hike momentum gathers. Issue for Japan is lack of workers !

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.
  • We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.
  • We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.

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Feb 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM
  • China’s Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX makes  up for yesterday’s loss and more; Markets look past Fed and focus on earnings recovery;  Its all about the Pause;   GM Beats but CAT misses; Awaiting AAPL
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11; Labor Shortages worsening (again), Firms desperate;  BYD seeks to Capture JP EV Market;   Komatsu Beats; Lasertec Misses.
  • DAILY NUGGETS. 6h 37m: The Average Time Spent Using the Internet.  Japan the outlier..for the better ?

China’s Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

  • The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
  • SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
  • As the deadline on the PBOC’s SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.

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Jan 31
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |RETREAT ! SPX Fails at 4100 (Again) Ahead of Fed; Calls for More Activists in JP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |RETREAT ! SPX Fails at 4100 (Again) Ahead of Fed; Calls for More Activists in JP
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended January 27, 2023

Good Morning Japan |RETREAT ! SPX Fails at 4100 (Again) Ahead of Fed; Calls for More Activists in JP

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX -1.2% ahead of Fed; Tech pulls back after torrid MTD; Eyes on Fed as Consensus converges on 25bp hike; More earnings ahead as FAANG(you get it) this week
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs  vs CASh -0.1%; USDJPY 130.44. ; Calls for more Activists?! Foreign Tourist Spend normalizes; KEPCO Nuclear plant powers down; Notable Earnings beats:  OLC, Omron; NEC; Misses: Canon
  • DAILY NUGGETS. Suzuki embraces carbon neutrality in a different form – yes a very different form…see below !

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor: Week Ended January 27, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended January 27, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 20.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 2.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.4%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 4.3%).
  • Advanced Transportation Solutions (69% of the index) drove the outperformance, rising 30.7% , while Energy Technology (9% of index) was up 1.8% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 1.9%.
  • Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 26.4x versus 18.3x for the S&P 500.

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