Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Jan 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |SPX Break Out In Sight ! ; PCE Inflation Delivers; Fed +25bps ? ; Awful INTEL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |SPX Break Out In Sight ! ; PCE Inflation Delivers; Fed +25bps ? ; Awful INTEL
  • Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications
  • The Innovations Portfolio – Week Ten
  • China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Good Morning Japan |SPX Break Out In Sight ! ; PCE Inflation Delivers; Fed +25bps ? ; Awful INTEL

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX positive on day, +2.5%WoW; SOX +5.4%WoW;  PCE Inflation sets stage for benign Fed; INTEL, KLC puts damper on tech party; TELSA delivers again; AMEX not seeing consumer weakness;
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs vs Cash +0.1%; USDJPY 129.88; Tokyo Dec CPI highest since 1981; GS sees highest base pay hike in decades.;  Fanuc 3Q beats on Robots; Sagawa hikes prices
  • DAILY. NUGGETS. Stealth Immigration – Foreigner workers in Japan hit all time high 1.82 million/2.7% of labour force. Clear policy on Immigration needed to help secure Japan’s  future.

Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The Innovations Portfolio – Week Ten

By Pyari Menon

  • The three companies we write about this week are Roche Holding Ltd (ROG VX) , Siemens Healthineers AG (SHL GR) and E Ink Holdings (8069 TT) 
  • For the ten weeks since inception ended 27 Jan the combined innovation portfolio was +4.0%, versus DJIA +.7%, S&P500 +2.7%, Nasdaq +4.3%, Russell2000 +3.3%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +5.1%, all in US$ terms
  • For the first time in decades IBM lost its top position in patent registrations in US. IBM’s patent count declined 44% to 4,743 patents in 2022, versus Samsung Electronics’ 8,513

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

  • We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
  • Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank’s easing bias will likely continue.
  • We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers > insurers > banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.

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Jan 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) – Surgical Robots New Policy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) – Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period
  • Japan Weekly | Bullish Markets, Suzuki, Shin-Etsu
  • Sands China Ltd: Breakthrough to Profitability Is First Forerunner of Macau Recovery Cycle

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) – Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • New policy was released to support the development of surgical robots in China, which would be short-term catalyst for related companies, but it may not bring high profits.
  • In fact, since March, it may not be appropriate for healthcare companies to use the COVID-19 as a reason if their performance in the following months is not as expected.
  • Before DRGs/DIP policy becomes very “lethal”, there is a “policy vacuum period” in the next two or three years, which is a good opportunity to go long in China healthcare.

Japan Weekly | Bullish Markets, Suzuki, Shin-Etsu

By Mark Chadwick

  • Global markets continued positive momentum on peaking in global inflation and expectations that the rate hike cycle is approaching its end
  • There is a slew of economic data next week and some major US tech company results announcements. Japanese earnings announcements get into full swing
  • Suzuki was the start performer last week as investors cheered the company’s new mid-term strategy and decarbonization plans

Sands China Ltd: Breakthrough to Profitability Is First Forerunner of Macau Recovery Cycle

By Howard J Klein

  • Revenues for 2022 just missed forecast, but enough to put the Macau market share leader over the top and into positive profit territory.
  • Indications during CNY show average bet of US$101 per hand clearly put premium mass play back in action with mass segment spurts evident during the holiday.
  • CNY arrivals hit 90,000 on Tuesday, best in three years. Current run rate now reaching 40% of pre-covid baseline 2019.

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Jan 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SPAC Talk: The Lost Cash Burden for De-SPACs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SPAC Talk: The Lost Cash Burden for De-SPACs

SPAC Talk: The Lost Cash Burden for De-SPACs

By Water Tower Research

  • Same old in the IPO market…. The start of 2023 has a familiar ring to it. Much like the back end of the 2022, the SPAC IPO market continues to show little signs of life.
  • As we approach the end of the first month of the new year, there have been no additions to the sole SPAC IPO that was priced in early January, and as yet, still no new filings S1 registrations this year.
  • In fact, there have been 12 S1 withdrawals or abandonments with the queue of prospective SPACs looking to IPO continuing to dwindle.

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Earnings Bonanaza! ; Tesla Rips; AutoSemis in Play;Toyoda @Toyota Passes Baton and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |Earnings Bonanaza! ; Tesla Rips; AutoSemis in Play;Toyoda @Toyota Passes Baton
  • China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

Good Morning Japan |Earnings Bonanaza! ; Tesla Rips; AutoSemis in Play;Toyoda @Toyota Passes Baton

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX Rallies as Earnings take centre stage; Telsa rips as Musk see 2m in Sales; Auto Semis in Play as STMicro beats – lifts sector; Seagate at turning point
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY Steady at 130.22; Baton gets passed at Toyota; Double D/G of Shippers downgrade to Sell ; EARNINGS TODAY: All about Fanuc
  • DAILY NUGGET. Toyota – End of an Era, and the start of another. We expect new CEO Sato to accelerate the EV shift !

China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

By Osbert Tang, CFA

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Off the Lows to Flat as ASML and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |Off the Lows to Flat as ASML, TSLA Beats; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles
  • Goldman Sachs Report on Ten China Shares Poised for Move Includes Wynn and Las Vegas Sands

Good Morning Japan |Off the Lows to Flat as ASML, TSLA Beats; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  Bull vs Bears swings as SPX closes flat; TSLA back on track with beat; ASML comforts Semi bulls; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles, Negative Containers.
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 129.57; Japan Bond investors flee US; TSE to end transitional listing; Reg Bank Consol; Pressure for JP Shippers ? Cyberagent – better future?
  • DAILY NUGGET. We look at the big decarbonization push via carbon capture, and see MHI (7011) as the biggest Japan beneficiary.

Goldman Sachs Report on Ten China Shares Poised for Move Includes Wynn and Las Vegas Sands

By Howard J Klein

  • Las Vegas Sands Asia unit and Wynn Macau face surging tailwind if early indications of CNY arrivals are sustained into the next quarters.
  • Sands China has the largest single room capacity of all Macau peers at 12,000.
  • We see both parent and Asian subsidiaries ready to move strongly as CNY arrivals hit over 150,000, with Saturday alone receiving over 55,000 vs. covid average of 20,000 arrivals.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |NYSE Glitches; Stocks Mixed; While JP Freezes the Public Warms to Nuclear Power and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |NYSE Glitches; Stocks Mixed; While JP Freezes the Public Warms to Nuclear Power
  • Japan Fintech – Cashless Payments Competition Is Heating Up

Good Morning Japan |NYSE Glitches; Stocks Mixed; While JP Freezes the Public Warms to Nuclear Power

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  Stocks Mixed as SPX -0.1% as NYSE Glitches on Open;  MSFT Beats  but Chip Giant Texas Instruments weak; DoJ calls for Google Ad Break up
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY steady at 130.19; Japan Freezes – No Joke; Nikkei Survey shows public sentiment toward Nuclear Power improving; Nidec misses; Elliot tgts DNP
  • DAILY NUGGET. Is Japan Stuck ? This is the view of outgoing BBC reporter. We disagree – changes are happening.

Japan Fintech – Cashless Payments Competition Is Heating Up

By Kirk Boodry

  • Japan trails global peers in the proportion of payments that are cashless but it is starting to close the gap led by Internet and telecom companies
  • Rakuten is a fintech leader in Japan (15% of cashless payments) but PayPay is closing the gap as it ramps up cashless app users
  • We expect compound annual growth in the mid-teens but margin expansion will be limited by competitive intensity

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Jan 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |THE SQUEEZE – Just Buy Tech; US Broker U/G to Semi Spurs Rally; Watch Copper and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |THE SQUEEZE – Just Buy Tech; US Broker U/G to Semi Spurs Rally; Watch Copper

Good Morning Japan |THE SQUEEZE – Just Buy Tech; US Broker U/G to Semi Spurs Rally; Watch Copper

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.2% but all Action in Tech as SOX +5.5%; Barclay Sector upgrade spurs Semis; Fed Hikes in the rear view for now; Watch Copper – supply risks+China demand
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.65; Where US goes, Japan will follow: All about Tech; Kishida speech: Nuclear Power, Defense, Child support in focus; Wage hikes gather steam.
  • DAILY NUGGET. Davos  on board with the coming of the Metaverse. We highlight this and think there are near term challenges.

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Jan 23
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; “Too Early for BOJ Exit” and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; “Too Early for BOJ Exit”
  • China EV Outlook: 2023 Will Be a Year of Divergence
  • The Innovations Portfolio – Week Nine
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 1/23

Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; “Too Early for BOJ Exit”

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds;  Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members;  Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6;  CORE Inflation hits 4%;  Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit;  Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022
  • DAILY NUGGET.  Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off.

China EV Outlook: 2023 Will Be a Year of Divergence

By Shawn Yang

  • CPCA reported China’s 2022 EV sales of 6.49mn units, + 96.1% YoY, primarily driven by better market acceptance of EVs and favourable EV policies. 
  • We think the fiercer competition will lead to divergence, which is already proven by Tesla’s price war. The followers such as Xpeng, could only be price takers and sacrifice margin.
  • We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, as 1) better profitability; 2) positive growth outlook in 2023. We cut NIO’s TP to US$ 18.

The Innovations Portfolio – Week Nine

By Pyari Menon

  • The three companies we write about this week are ASML Holding NV (ASML US) , Bayer AG (BAYN GY)  and Gentex Corp (GNTX US)
  • We included ChatGPT’s innovation assessment for the three companies in the report. The qualitative commentary of ChatGPT though fluffy does somewhat reflect our quantitative assessment from technical literature.
  • For the nine weeks since inception ended 20 Jan the combined innovation portfolio was +3.5%, versus DJIA -1.1%, S&P500 +0.2%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell2000 +1.0%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +3.1%, all in US$ terms

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 1/23

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • Hope everyone had a nice weekend! Collisions Ahead? As some food for thought, I am listing out a few “collisions” I am focusing on in the short to intermediate term that I believe are important signposts to monitor.
  • I am calling them collisions for now because markets usually never follow a nice and simple linear movement as competing forces, new trends, data, and developments emerge which is what make markets interesting and extremely difficult to predict in the short term.
  • Below are 4 “collisions” I am keeping on eye on.

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Jan 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEM Weekly (20 Jan 2023): China Macro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEM Weekly (20 Jan 2023): China Macro, House Prices; Didi, NetEase Alibaba, Tencent, Xpeng
  • Is The Semiconductor Collapse Slowing?

GEM Weekly (20 Jan 2023): China Macro, House Prices; Didi, NetEase Alibaba, Tencent, Xpeng

By Wium Malan, CFA

Is The Semiconductor Collapse Slowing?

By Jim Handy

  • The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.
  • Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.
  • These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven’t hit bottom yet.

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Jan 21
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | BayCurrent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | BayCurrent, Mercari

Japan Weekly | BayCurrent, Mercari

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese stocks shrugged off weakness in overseas markets to close up for the second week running
  • All eyes were on the BOJ, which did absolutely nothing.  The Yield Curve will be defended at all costs
  • Stocks on our watchlist returned about +1.5% this week. They have been consolidating for the past 6 months

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