Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• Despite volatility driven by Trump’s shifting remarks on China trade, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended Friday nearly flat, closing out their best month since November 2023.
• Ukraine launched a major drone attack on Russian military bombers in Siberia, hitting over 40 warplanes at four airfields.
• NEC announced plans to increase revenue for its digital transformation business “Blue Stella” to 1 trillion yen, representing 84% growth from fiscal 2025

• TSMC planning a fab in UAE not enough to lift semi-cap names Friday.
• New Switch on Thursday and the Summer Game Fest on Friday points to upside for laggard developers this week.
• ISpace set to deliver UNESCO cultural hard drive to the moon this Friday.

• The Ministry of Road Transport & Highways(MoRTH) has revised bidding norms for central government road projects, effective April 30, 2025, removing the APS cap and lowering the trigger.
• The EPC sector faced intense competition and aggressive underbidding from less stringent standards, causing project delays and quality issues. 
• These changes aim to deter unsustainable bids, prevent margin erosion, filter speculative players, ease competition, and improve project execution and quality.

• Eisai received approval for its insomnia drug, Dayvigo in China. Daiichi Sankyo and Merck have voluntarily withdrawn BLA seeking accelerated approval in the U.S. for patritumab deruxtecan for NSCLC.
• Samsung Biologics secured two CMO contract worth KRW441B from unnamed pharmaceutical companies in Asia and Europe. SK Bioscience has completed a major expansion of its vaccine production facility in Andong.
• CSPC Pharmaceutical is in negotiations regarding three potential outlicensing deals. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals received approvals for three drugs in China. Hansoh’s third BLA for Xinyue has been accepted by NMPA.

• The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.
• The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.
• Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.

• CDNS, SNPS each fall >10% on the back of further US restrictions on sale to China
• Both of their China revenues were around 10% in the most recent quarter, albeit in the case of CDNS, it was 15% in the year ago quarter
• China’s domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to further accelerate its development

• Iron ore futures dropped as China’s steel demand weakened and Beijing considered a pre-sale ban of unfinished homes, potentially hurting global steel demand. 
• Expectations of impending production restrictions were bolstered when Baosteel forecasted that China’s total steel output could decrease by 50 million tons this year. 
• On the technical front, prices remain below key moving averages, and MACD lags the signal line, reinforcing a persistent bearish outlook. 

• We highlight 10 stocks in China that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
• Portfolio changes: Two stocks remain, eight new join the fray
• Since inception, it has gained 172% versus the CSI 300 Index’s return of 61%

• JD US/BABA US/3690 HK: Food Delivery Subsidy Rules Adjusted Again, Merchant Share Rises to 70% (+/+/+)
• TCOM US: Stable Traffic Growth in Dragon Boat Festival Traffic(+)
• TCOM US:Daily cross-border trips during Dragon Boat Festival holiday hit 2.15m (-)

• Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) chairman highlights India’s strong growth outlook, emerging trends like GenAI, and the nation’s stability.
• India’s space sector, driven by state-level policies and private investments, is set to reach $44 billion by 2033.
• JSW Steel’s 50 MT capacity target by FY31 remains intact despite Bhushan setback, focusing on brownfield and greenfield expansions.

• XPEV US: Mona M03 Max facelift launches with RMB15k price cut (+)
• LI US/601127 CH/ XPEV US/NIO US: Week 21 Sales Ranking (May 19-25, 2025)(+/+/-/-)
• New Energy Vehicle: MOC focuses on “zero-mile used cars”, BYD(1211 HK) & Dongfeng attend meeting(-)

• The critical role of TREM2. Triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2) is a protein that is primarily found on the surface of microglia.
• Microglia are the primary immune cells of the central nervous system (CNS), which essentially act as the first and principal line of active immune defense in the CNS.
• TREM2 helps the CNS immune system by enhancing microglia’s ability to clear toxic substances, abnormal proteins (such as amyloid beta), and cellular debris. I

• Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Gearing-up for acquisitions?
• – 1Q25 production was 4,085 boe/d with no horizontal wells drilled in the period.
• RCE is more mature than CN and while no drilling has taken place at RCE, the decline rate between 4Q24 and 1Q25 was only ~5%.

• We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
• Portfolio changes: Three stocks remain, 11 new join the fray
• Since inception, it has gained 73% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 10%

• A federal appeals court reinstated Trump’s tariffs temporarily, adding uncertainty to trade policy.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.4%, while the Dow gained 0.3%, though all three retreated from session highs
• Renesas Electronics has scrapped plans to produce next-generation power semiconductors for electric vehicles using silicon carbide at its Takasaki Plant

• In the global copper market the news of trouble at Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) large Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo dominated headlines.
• Kamoa-Kakula is the fourth largest global copper mine ramping up supply in the coming years. The issues highlight the necessity for other projects such as Oyo Tolgoi in Mongolia. 
• In Mongolia, headlines were dominated by political unrest and a “secret” lawsuit by the Mongolian government against Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). 

• Computex focused heavily on AI and featured a lot of liquid cooling technology
• Nvidia keynote at Computex introduced NVLink Fusion for custom CPUs, targeting vendors like Fujitsu
• Debate arose over the relevance of NVLink Fusion for hyperscalers who are moving towards custom silicon to avoid reliance on Nvidia.

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• NVDA pricing in numbers positive and Dell AH sets a good tone for AI related.
• Renesas pulling out of SiC points to problems with Wolfspeed supplies and may be positive Rohm.
• Boeing up with 737 Max production increasing and China about to resume deliveries.

• SEBI investigates Indusind Bank (IIB IN)‘s delayed disclosures on derivatives accounting lapses, insider trading violations, and potential violations of LODR regulations.
• Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN) Sunil Vachani discusses India’s progress in electronics manufacturing, aiming for global leadership but requiring time and patience.
• NSE is close to receiving Sebi’s approval for its IPO, with ongoing discussions on disclosures or an out-of-court settlement.

• We consider the merged platform Kadimastem (KDST.TA) + NLS Pharmaceutics (NLSP:NasdaqCM).
• We provide an investment case analysis and a selection of merged metrics prior to any synergies.
• The merger creates a cross-platform pre-revenue biotech with lead programs including a proprietary stem-differentiation platform capable of delivering scalable therapies for replacing lost or damaged cells; IsletRx could revolutionize insulin production for Type 1 diabetes (T1D) patients; AstroRx® targets neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs); and a clinical-stage Dual Orexin Receptor Agonist (DOXA) platform targets NDD therapies and metabolic disorders including ALS and sleep-wake disorders.

• On Wednesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.56% to 5,888.55 as investors awaited Nvidia’s earnings
• After the close, Nvidia reported Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, beating expectations
• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reported a robust order backlog exceeding 10,000 billion yen, doubling pre-pandemic levels

• Declining Chinese inventory and rising premiums bode well for the copper price.
• Speculative interest, as per the COT reports, is low, providing room for new buyers.
• Infrastructure and defence spending are on the rise in most regions of the world

• NVDA numbers were inline, but Blackwell rollout and outlook for further sovereign expansion sets bullish tone.
• HP numbers point to bleak demand for PC’s due to rising import costs and a slower economy
• Rohm +13% as its switches to a more AI focused bucket + NKY potential.

• PBoC reduced one-year and five-year loan prime rates to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, marking a careful step amid ongoing U.S. trade tensions. 
• Xu Lin proposed a 4% annual growth target to address demographic and structural challenges, advocating structural reforms and private sector engagement. 
• Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports fell in the third week of May, primarily due to reduced arrivals of new shipments.

• Beiqi Foton Motor Co Ltd A (600166 CH), via Energy In Motion, marks Baic Motor Corp Ltd H (1958 HK)’s electric truck entry in India targeting heavy-duty logistics.
• In this insight we attempt to identify implications on existing players like Ashok Leyland (AL IN), Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) , Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) and others.
• Ravindra Energy’s INR 180 crore equity raise appears to have been a strategic precursor, providing funding to support infrastructure and operational rollout of electric commercial vehicles in partnership with Foton.

• Furniture and furnishings stocks were down, along with the rest of the market, as Moody’s downgraded US debt on concerns over expanding deficits and higher interest rates, exacerbated by concerns that the administration’s proposed budget could significantly increase total federal debt, and continued concern over the fate of tariffs and US trade policy.
• The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 4.5%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index fell 2.6%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index was down 8.5% in a week where the broader indices (2.7%) and the R2K (3.1%) were down by low single digits.
• Less for more when it comes to housing according to the WSJ (1). Houses in the US are starting to get at least a bit smaller on the margin in the post-pandemic period (Figure 1), perhaps signaling the end (or at least a pause) in the trend toward larger homes that has been in place throughout the post-war era as families increasingly moved out of the cities and into the suburbs.

• Alcoholic Beverages sector exposure has dropped to multi-year lows, falling below 50% of active GEM funds. 
• Recent outflows total $700m, with China & HK and Brazil seeing the steepest declines. 
• Key stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin face consistent month-on-month closures as managers rotate out.

• This week, we review the troubled history of Gryphon Digital Mining (GRYP), the reverse-merger partner of Hut 8’s (HUT) new spin-off, American Bitcoin, soon to trade on Nasdaq as ABTC.

• HUT will own 80% of the spin-off. GRYP is the junior partner in the deal; its shareholders get 2% of the spin-off.

• But there is magic somewhere in the numbers: based on GRYP’s own current market cap, the 2% allocation implies a valuation for American Bitcoin that is more than twice the current market cap for all of HUT—even though most of its ABTC’s operations are still currently contained in HUT as a majority owned subsidiary.

• There is very high delta in 30-year JGB yields in the recent month, and preceding periods
• This is very much unlike what we see with the 1-year JGBs, different implications.
• Insurance companies are the major holders of long-dated JGBs where banks have low duration on their bond holdings.

• US stocks surged Tuesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 1.8% or over 700 points
• Asahi Kasei will withdraw from four businesses including acrylic resins and MMA by March 2026-September 2027 due to deteriorating market conditions
• MBK Partners has secured preferential negotiating rights to acquire Makino Milling Works through a takeover bid

• Semi’s and cons disc leading way higher, Japan set for strong start.
• Apple breaking downtrend on news its releasing a new game center to better compete against consoles.
• Nuclear names surging again which sets a continued positive tone for heavies and related.

• Surging DPSU order books ensure revenue visibility, supported by FY26’s 9.5% budget increase and 75% capital outlay for domestic industry.   
• The future outlook appears robust, driven by policy and a 20% production CAGR target, aiming for INR 5 lakh crore in exports by 2029.   
• High valuations driven by P/E re-rating and heavy dependence on Ministry of Defence  as a single buyer are key sector risks.

• 1211 HK: BYD Company , Geely, Leapmotor Cut Prices (-)
• LI US: AITO M8 Achieves Over 80,000 Pre-Orders in Its First Month(-)
• LI US: Li Auto Revises Down 2025 Production Target (+)

• 3690 HK/PDD US/BABA US: SAMR issues compliance guidelines for online platform fee practices (-/-/-)
• 3690 HK: “Shen Qiang Shou” and “Pin Hao Fan” Both Surpass 10 Million Daily Orders (+)
• TCOM US: Thailand’s Foreign Tourist Arrivals Decline by 2% YoY, Chinese Tourists Drop 33% (-)

• Despite President Trump postponing the 50% import tariff on the EU — which initially acted as a catalyst for a rebound in the SET — the index was quickly dragged down by weak investor confidence amid concerns over an economic slowdown.
• Nevertheless, gains in DELTA, ADVANC, and SCC helped the index close slightly higher, albeit on low trading volume.
• The index continued its attempt to rebound and hold above the support level at 1,173 points, which was successful.

• Global markets and the euro rallied on Monday after US President Donald Trump postponed his threat of 50% tariffs on EU goods until July.
• Rakuten Group has partnered with Japan Post to begin selling government stockpiled rice on its “Rakuten Ichiba” e-commerce site
• Major Toyota automakers are increasingly disclosing securities reports before annual general meetings, with seven of eight major companies adopting this practice

• India’s private consumption expenditure, experienced a significant slowdown in FY24, a three-year low growth rate of 5.6% and its share in real GDP reducing to a five-year low of 56.1%
• This deceleration, which mirrors a pre-pandemic trend, is primarily attributed to stagnant income levels, elevated inflation, and a notable surge in household debt.
• There are nascent signs of recovery in FY25, particularly with easing inflation and a slight uptick in rural wages,

• A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025
• Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.
• The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. 

• Our selection of Indian Auto companies is based on these characteristics: value, near term growth triggers, margin of safety and management commentary post Q4FY25 Results.
• We present our list of stocks in the BUY, SELL(short) and HOLD category in this insight.
• We will review our note on these names post their monthly sales volume performance and outlook in medium term.

• INR 10,000 cr+ of fresh capacity, led by Grasim’s Birla Opus will lift organised paint capacity ~70 % by FY26 even as FY24 industry revenue growth slowed to ~4 %.
• Hyper-Competition has shifted the fight to dealer shelves: aggressive discounts, wider distribution and heavier ad-spend are squeezing incumbents’ volumes and have dragged sector EBITDA margins from ~20% to ~16 %.
• Near-Term earnings for legacy leaders will stay under pressure and market share will churn, but 80 % organised share and structurally strong housing demand keep the medium-term growth story intact.

• Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
• Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
• If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

• According to an article in the La Lettre website, Ahold Delhaize entered preliminary discussions to acquire all or part of French supermarket chain Carrefour at the end of 2024.
• However, talks ended in January 2025 without a deal.
• Ahold Delhaize, with a 2024 turnover of EUR 89.4bn and strong U.S. operations, sought expansion into the French market and saw potential synergies, particularly in private-label products and Carrefour’s Brazilian assets. 

• US markets fell due to Trump tariff plans and rising yields; major indices declined ~2.5%, while gold and Bitcoin rose.
• Tokyo stocks closed last week in negative territory, with the Nikkei 225 falling 1.6% as investors grappled with shifting U.S. monetary policy expectations, yen volatility, and geopolitical tensions
• Key Japan corporate news includes SoftBank’s planned ¥43T fund, Nippon Steel’s ¥2T U.S. Steel investment, and proxy votes at Toyota Industries.

• Apple tariff threat likely just another scare tactic with markets failing to react excessively.
• May see further Nuclear follow through after Trumps executive order Friday sends related names soaring.
• Live-Action Elden Ring movie another positive angle for Bandai Namco which also has Gundan on the way.

• Indian banks’ average Net Interest Margins fell 21 basis points in FY25, projected to decline another 9 basis points in FY2026 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition pressures.  
• Robust credit growth continues while deposit growth lags increasing funding costs. Nonperforming Assets for public and private banks are projected to stabilize or decline.  
• Contracting margins squeeze core income, public banks may see profit decline FY26 despite stable asset quality aiding earnings.

• 3SBio entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with Pfizer granting them exclusive license to develop, manufacture, commercialize, and otherwise exploit its breakthrough PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707 worldwide excluding mainland China.
• CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited announced that CPO301, their first-in-class epidermal growth factor receptor (‘‘EGFR’’) antibody drug conjugate (ADC), has been granted the third Fast Track designation by the U.S. FDA.
• Samsung Biologics Co. announced that it plans to spin off its biosimilar development business into separate new entity, Samsung Epis Holdings. Samsung Biologics will become a pure-play CDMO.

• India’s Smartphone Exports Surge to $24.14 Billion, Overtake Petroleum and Diamonds
• India plans to spend $10 billion on a fleet of 112 homebuilt oil tankers, aiming for self-sufficiency in energy.
• Seven companies, including Credila Financial and Sri Lotus Developers, have received SEBI approval for IPOs, aiming to raise significant funds.

• The NSO’s First Forward-Looking Survey on Private Sector Capex Investment Intentions projects a 55.5% increase in private sector Capex for FY25, led by Manufacturing, Information & Communication, and Transportation sectors.
• The survey provides insights into India’s private sector investment trends, highlighting a strong focus on core business expansion, value addition, and income generation, vital for future growth and economic development.
• The outlook for FY25 reflects optimism, especially in the manufacturing sector, signaling sustained economic momentum. However, FY26 shows cautious investment intent, indicating some sectors may face challenges.

• AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Adding four low risk drill-ready shallow gas prospects to start drilling by YE25 – ADX has now matured 13 shallow gas prospects across the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas in Austria.
• The play is proven, supported by historical discoveries within the basin.
• Nearby historical discoveries in the area have produced 220 bcf to date.

• Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) saw strong revenue growth, but intense competition and quick commerce costs led to declining profits or increased losses. 
• Zomato(Eternal) holds a strong advantage in food delivery profitability, reporting INR 428 crore adjusted EBITDA, and its IOCC status offers potential inventory benefits.   
• Swiggy uses quick commerce for acquisition, scaling Bolt for speed which drives over 12% of food orders and boosts retention.