Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Overseas: SPX +0.7%, Nasdaq +1.1%; Microsoft +2% after OpenAi drama; Nvidia +2%
Today: NKY Futs 0% v cash. JPY 148.4/$; Nikkei Hits 33-Year High Amid Foreign Investment Surge
JapanX: Mitsubishi Electric and Nexperia partner for SiC power semiconductors; SiC tech fuels global green transformation.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BEKE/XPEV/LI/BYD/CATL

BEKE: New Home Sales still lukewarm in October and early November (/)
XPEV, LI, BYD, CATL: SK On and LGES cut staff amid US EV slowdowns, positive for Chinese EV & battery
XPEV: Huawei AITO M5 rear-end accident took place on November 14 raises safety concerns(+)

Q323 Memory Segment Review, Outlook

By William Keating

Q323 DRAM revenues amounted to $13.210 billion, up a robust 19.25% QoQ, but still down 27% from the year-ago period.
In the case of NAND, Q323 revenues amounted to $9.3 billion, up 4% QoQ but down 31.7% YoY.
All memory players remain loss making. We don’t anticipate a return to black until Q224.

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: BABA/ VIPS/PDD/JD/Meituan, 3690.HK/Tencent, 700.HK/SE

By Ying Pan

BABA/VIPS/PDD/3690.HK/JD: Social Retail Consumption data improved in October MoM (+)
700.HK: Tencent raises ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming Studio (+)
SE/ PDD/ BABA: Highlights of Sea Limited’s disappointing Q3 results(-)

Cannabis News for the Week Ending November 17, 2023

Cannabis stocks had another good week, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF gaining 5.50% and the global YOLO increasing 2.49%.
As the potential DEA news inches closer, US cannabis stocks continue to outperform Canadian counterparts. MTD, MSOS is +22.86%, while YOLO is +10.34%.
Ayr Wellness (CSE: AYR, OTCQX: AYRWF) was +27.29% and led the way for the larger operators.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Falling Rates Lift All Stocks

Last week, we considered our outlook for furniture and furnishings. Today, we look at current indicators.
Economic fundamentals largely deteriorated over the past two weeks, but the stocks surged as interest rates eased.
Existing home sales dipped to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96 million in September, the first reading below 4 million since 2010, shortly after the Great Recession.

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Nov 20

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Mixed Messages; JAL Invests in Sustainable Flight and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Mixed Messages; JAL Invests in Sustainable Flight
Semiconductor WFE Q323 Segment Roundup & Outlook
Chinese Airports at Inflection Point, Low Risk and High Visibility Growth Sector

Ohayo Japan | Mixed Messages; JAL Invests in Sustainable Flight

Overseas: SPX (+0.1%), Nasdaq (+0.1%); Third consecutive week of gains; Mixed messaging out of Fed; AMAT under investigation for China export violations
Today: NKY Futs -0.2% v cash. JPY 149.6/$; Berkshire sells yen bonds; Panasonic in talks to sell an auto parts biz; Itochu to buy Bigmotor?
JapanX: ZeroAvia partners with Japan Airlines to develop hydrogen-electric engines, bringing sustainable flight closer. JAL commits to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050

Semiconductor WFE Q323 Segment Roundup & Outlook

By William Keating

Q323 revenues of the top 5 WFE players amounted to $22.7 billion, up 2.6% QoQ, but down 9.5% YoY
On the basis of current quarter forecasts, we calculate CY2023 WFE revenue to reach $92.6 billion, a 1.6% YoY decline, and a far cry from the previously anticipated 20% decline.
Both ASML and TEL are forecasting 2024 revenues roughly flat YoY. We think the same will apply to the broader WFE segment.

Chinese Airports at Inflection Point, Low Risk and High Visibility Growth Sector

By Mohshin Aziz

Chinese airports have turnaround with Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai airports reported 9M23 profits. The others (Beijing, Shenzhen, Hainan) are still lossmaking, but should turnaround soon
The upcoming Winter/Spring schedule reveals international capacity at 70% of 2019’s level, a catalyst for strong earnings growth, as international flights generate >2.5x higher revenues
Xiamen International Air A (600897 CH) exhibits the best value; Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH) is the most appealing due to its size and liquidity

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Nov 19

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (17 Nov 2023): China and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

GEMWeekly (17 Nov 2023): China, Malaysia Macro; Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent
US Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets, Negative C&I Growth, Nearly First Time This Year, Other Negatives

GEMWeekly (17 Nov 2023): China, Malaysia Macro; Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: Chinese industrial production and retail sales, Malaysia GDP growth.
Companies mentioned:Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Tencent (700 HK)

US Banks – Weekly Balance Sheets, Negative C&I Growth, Nearly First Time This Year, Other Negatives

By Daniel Tabbush

There was one week of data where large US banks showed -0.1% YoY growth in commercial and industrial (C&I) but the most recent week is -1.0% so more solidly negative.
Cash balances continue to show YoY growth at double digit, now at 18.4% suggesting limited demand, and still banks having risk-aversion.
Jumbo time deposit growth remains extraordinary at 118% YoY in most recent week, and this money is more expensive than other time deposits.

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Nov 18

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025
Alibaba, JD.com Report Double 11 Sales Growth
Japan Weekly | CPI Drives Yields Lower, Stocks Higher. New Activist Positions

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

By Andrew Lu

Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;
More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies’ share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;
Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026.

Alibaba, JD.com Report Double 11 Sales Growth

By Caixin Global

China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just how high, as they rolled out discount-heavy strategies to encourage reluctant consumers to spend.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. had offered a slew of discounts to attract shoppers as the recovery in household consumption in the world’s second largest economy slowly gained momentum in recent months.
Alibaba said that both gross merchandise value (GMV) and order amount on Taobao and Tmall from Oct. 24 to Nov. 11 rose from the same period last year.

Japan Weekly | CPI Drives Yields Lower, Stocks Higher. New Activist Positions

Market Watch: U.S. CPI disappointment led to a sharp yield drop, boosting growth stocks; Nikkei rose for a third week, Topix up 26% YTD; Expect lower volatility next week
Major Movers: Benesse (+33%) on MBO, Benefit One (+28%) on sale to M3, Ebara (+17%) & Horiba (+15%) on positive results. Speculation that Tsuruha (+13%) is open to offers
Activist Watch: Dalton and Strategic Capital start new positions in Iwaki Pumps and Teraoka Seisakusho respectively

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Nov 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | November Rally Takes a Rest; ValueAct Finds Value in Recruit and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | November Rally Takes a Rest; ValueAct Finds Value in Recruit
Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part III)
[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK
Chinese Airlines: Well Placed for a Reversal
[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR
China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 10-16, 2023

Ohayo Japan | November Rally Takes a Rest; ValueAct Finds Value in Recruit

Overseas: SPX +0.1% , Nasdaq +0.1%; Relatively stable day. Walmart stock -8% on cautious outlook, Burberry -9% on weak luxury spend
Today: NKY Futs -0.1% v cash. JPY 150.8/$; Japan to scrap quarterly reporting? Asahi Group Share Offering
ValueAct’s investment into Recruit highlights continued opportunities and value in the Japanese market

Affordable Luxury: A Look Into Chinese Luxury (Part III)

By Alexis Dwek

Thanks to the rapidly expanding middle class, increasing incomes, and a strong desire for luxury, Chinese consumers are often seen as the embodiment of the luxury industry’s promising future
However, the market has seen competition intensify: Not only are international brands competing against each other, but the rise of domestic brands has brought the competitive landscape to another level
Since this summer, investors have been concerned by a shifting Chinese landscape in the context of the current economic situation

[Blue Lotus Daily] BABA/JD/PDD/1024.HK/ZTO/1519.HK/BIDU/Tencent 700.HK

By Ying Pan

BABA/ JD/ PDD/ 1024.HK/ ZTO/ 1519.HK: Double 11 eCommerce update (+)
BABA/BIDU/700HK: Alibaba Cloud crashed for several hours during the weekend (-/+/+)
On November 12, 2023 Alibaba Cloud reportedly crashed for several hours, and in the process resulted in outages for Alibaba services and customer websites that stopped functioning properly.

Chinese Airlines: Well Placed for a Reversal

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The Chinese airlines are best placed to ride on lower US interest rates and the induced weakening of USD given heavy USD debt, which amounts to 17.7% of the total.
A 1% drop in USD interest rates will save Rmb1.2bn, and this is more than the total profit they have generated in 9M23. FY24 will be a big swing year.
This is an overlooked sector as their share prices have dropped by an average of 21.8% YTD. However, profits turned around and revenue surged tremendously in the period.

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)
XPEV/NIO/LI: Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)
981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Nov 10-16, 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

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Nov 16

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Building on Strong Rally; Tsuruha for Sale and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Building on Strong Rally; Tsuruha for Sale
Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs
Top 10 Tech Trends in 2024 – What’s Likely to Drive Tech Next Year

Ohayo Japan | Building on Strong Rally; Tsuruha for Sale

Overseas: SPX +0.2%, Nasdaq 0%; Interest rates remain key driver; Target stock +18% on bte Q3 results
Today: NKY Futs -0.4% v cash. JPY 151.4; Bullish plans from Denso; Japan tourism fully recovered
JapanX: Expected further consolidation in the drug store sector looking more likely. The vultures are circling

Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs

By Douglas O’Laughlin

This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising.
I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.
We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.

Top 10 Tech Trends in 2024 – What’s Likely to Drive Tech Next Year

Artificial intelligence (AI). AI is already having a major impact on the tech sector, and this is only going to accelerate in 2024.
With an estimated market size of $137 billion in 2022, AI is projected to grow significantly to $1.8 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of 38%.
We can expect to see more sophisticated AI applications and algorithms that can perform complex tasks and make decisions with human-like accuracy.

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Nov 15

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Rally Time; Toyota’s New Plan for Software and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Rally Time; Toyota’s New Plan for Software
[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/LI/NIO/1211.HK/BGNE
Five Trends to Watch in 2024
Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended November 10, 2023

Ohayo Japan | Rally Time; Toyota’s New Plan for Software

Overseas: SPX 1.9%, Nasdaq +2.4%; Core CPI lower than expected, slowest rate in two years; 10Y below 4.5%
Today: NKY Futs +1.6% v cash. JPY 150.4; M3 to buy Benefit One; Cosmo Energy rejects Murakami’s shareholder return demands
JapanX: As the automotive industry transforms and the role of software becomes increasingly important, Toyota to consolidate its software development under one roof

[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/LI/NIO/1211.HK/BGNE

XPEV/LI/NIO: Auto Media company conduct ADS crash test with results favoring Huawei over XPeng
LI/XPEV/NIO/1211.HKNew energy vehicle sales growth accelerated in October 2023 (+)
BGNE: Gilead’s purported success in TIGIT in Gastric Cancer means little to BeiGene(/)

Five Trends to Watch in 2024

Geopolitical tension could continue contributing to instability in global energy markets.
A regional expansion of the conflict between Israel and Hamas could affect global energy security and put upward pressure on crude oil prices.
Uncertainty overhangs a generally healthy global supply/demand balance in the oil markets.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended November 10, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 2.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.8%).
Energy Technology (12.2% of the index) was down by 12.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (50.4% of the index) was up 0.5%, ClimateTech Mining was down 8.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 3.8%.
Top 10 Performers: PGTK, BLDE, XOS, REE, CECE, LBNK, FL, INVZ, FE, BLNK

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Nov 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | All Quiet Ahead of CPI; NTT Data’s Mobility Platform and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | All Quiet Ahead of CPI; NTT Data’s Mobility Platform
The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies
China’s China Weight Loss Drug Market Update – the Negatives and the True Colors
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Looking Ahead: What We Expect in 2024
Japan’s Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward
2024 Trends for Direct Sellers – Looking for an Inflection Point
The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending November 10, 2023

Ohayo Japan | All Quiet Ahead of CPI; NTT Data’s Mobility Platform

Overseas: SPX -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.3%; Traders waiting for upcoming inflation data; Tesla +4%
Today: NKY Futs +0.6% v cash. JPY 151.7; Japan inflation cooling; machine tool orders -21%
JapanX: Empowering Tomorrow’s Connectivity: NTT Data Pioneering Innovation in the EV Revolution

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

By Mohshin Aziz

We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar
Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities
Stocks that exhibits deep value are US Global Jets ETF (JETS US), Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)

China’s China Weight Loss Drug Market Update – the Negatives and the True Colors

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

While we’re optimistic about weight loss drug business, we also need to recognize the “true colors” of relevant companies, which helps us realize “when to participate and when to exit”.
We analyzed the negatives/”flaws” of popular companies that favored by capital: BrightGene Bio-Medical Technol (688166 CH), Hybio Pharmaceutical (300199 CH), Hainan Poly Pharm (300630 CH), Sinopep-Allsino, Kawin Technology, Highfine Biotech,etc.
Short-Term stock price rally are mainly driven by sentiment, but future valuation still needs to be supported by performance and fundamentals. Some companies are just conceptual hype in our view.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Looking Ahead: What We Expect in 2024

Following a spate of earnings last week and major retailer earnings ahead, we pause here to reflect on where the furniture and furnishings sectors—residential and commercial/contract— are now and a peek at their likely tracks in the early 2024.
Where are we in broad strokes? Residential: Following demand surges fueled by a once-in-a-lifetime focus by consumers on their homes during the pandemic, residential furniture and furnishings demand slumped as the focus shifted to “experiences” from goods.
Commercial: New demand (orders) didn’t enjoy the surge (though backlog deliveries fueled reported sales).

Japan’s Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

By Michael Causton

Parts of the apparel/fashion sector made a complete recovery last year but performance was patchy, with high rates of growth from a few but more had sales below 2019.
2023-24 should be a stellar year thanks to inbound tourism growth and healthier, if still hesitant, domestic demand.
While profitability has risen significantly, the pressure to keep prices down is widening the gap between efficient operators and the rest.

2024 Trends for Direct Sellers – Looking for an Inflection Point

This year marks the fifth year in the most current downcycle for the stocks we monitor in the direct selling channel, with the brief exception of the pandemic-related benefits they reaped in 2H20 and 1H21, as a result of their product focus on health and wellness as well as their direct-to-consumer business models during the widespread lockdowns.
Even those benefits have been mostly given back in 2022 and 2023 as consumers moved from spending on goods for the home and body to services and experiences as mobility returned to the global marketplace
Below are the five key trends we are looking for to drive this group in 2024.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending November 10, 2023

Cannabis stocks had an excellent week, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF surging 11.39% and the global YOLO ETF ending +4.07%. YTD, MSOS is -6.29% and YOLO is -21.94%, indicating that US cannabis has been outperforming Canadian and other global names.
The week started with BAT (LSE: BATS, NYSE: BTI) making a C$124.6 million investment into Canadian operator Organigram (TSX: OGI, OTCQX: OGI).
Most of the capital is to create Jupiter, a strategic investment pool designed to expand Organigram’s footprint and capitalize on strategic growth opportunities.

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Nov 13

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Markets Resilient; NTT Invests in AV Start-Up and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Markets Resilient; NTT Invests in AV Start-Up
Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 13/11/23

Ohayo Japan | Markets Resilient; NTT Invests in AV Start-Up

Overseas: SPX +1.6%, Nasdaq +2.2%; All sectors positive as big tech gains
Today: NKY Futs +1% v cash. JPY 151.5; Shiseido sees weakness in China; TSMC Oct. sales +15%
JapanX: NTT and Toyota invest in May Mobility, an AV star-tup, signalling a global push for advanced autonomous driving technology and strategic partnerships.

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @ 13/11/23

By William Keating

TSMC Reported October revenues of NT$243.20 billion, an increase of 34.8% QoQ and an increase of 15.7% YoY.
According to IDC, worldwide smartphone shipments amounted to 302.8 million units in Q323, still down 0.1% YoY, but up ~14.1% sequentially.
Silicon wafer area shipments for Q323 amounted to 3,010 MSI, down 19.5% YoY & down 10% QoQ. Why are wafer shipments declining when key end markets are in recovery mode?

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Nov 12

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (3 Nov 2023): Indonesia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

GEMWeekly (3 Nov 2023): Indonesia, China, Philippines Macro; South Korea Markets, Ant, Baidu
[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE
[Blue Lotus Daily]: CPNG/BABA/PDD:Coupang Sacrifices Profitability for Growth in 3Q23 (-/+/+)

GEMWeekly (3 Nov 2023): Indonesia, China, Philippines Macro; South Korea Markets, Ant, Baidu

By Wium Malan, CFA

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
Macro data points: Indonesia and Philippine GDP growth, China trade and inflation, South Korea short selling ban.
Companies mentioned this week:Ant Group (6688 HK), Baidu (9888 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LI/XPEV/NIO/TSLA/ATAT/HTHT/ZLAB/ACMR/CPNG/BABA/PDD/BEKE