In today’s briefing:
- CXMT’s $8.6B Memory Clock: GigaDevice, Korea and China’s Fourth DRAM Bet
- This Week in AI (Jul 19-25): Opus 5 and Qwen 3.8 Launches; Kimi Targets a Pre-IPO After K3 Release
- Ohayo Japan | Tech Weakness Continues as AI Concerns Linger
- China Strategy: Evolution of H-Share IPO Premium/Discount
- Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On Mood May Return as Red Sea Tensions Ease
- China Healthcare Weekly Wrap (20-24 July)
- SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #3 | 18–25 July 2026
CXMT’s $8.6B Memory Clock: GigaDevice, Korea and China’s Fourth DRAM Bet
- A month since Roundhill’s GigaDevice inclusion started offering indirect exposure to China’s emerging memory ecosystem; CXMT’s Shanghai debut now puts its largest DRAM manufacturer on investors’ screens.
- CXMT’s share gains are real, but Q1 revenue momentum was amplified by tight supply and pricing; Counterpoint’s 11% 2028 bit-share forecast remains below viable scale.
- Tencent contracts and IPO funds give CXMT time to upgrade its mix, but Korea’s $518 billion buildout sets the deadline for becoming an advanced-memory competitor.
This Week in AI (Jul 19-25): Opus 5 and Qwen 3.8 Launches; Kimi Targets a Pre-IPO After K3 Release
- We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&A this week: Anthropic launched Opus 5, Moonshot moved toward pre-IPO funding, and Alibaba shipped Qwen3.8.
- China coverage grouped Qwen3.8, Kimi funding, Zhipu compute and SenseTime capacity, with policy items separated into MOFCOM and MIIT updates.
- Infrastructure and funding updates covered AMD, Nvidia, TSMC, Atoms, Mistral, Etched, 01.AI, PsiBot and GigaAI.
Ohayo Japan | Tech Weakness Continues as AI Concerns Linger
- US equities mixed: Dow +0.5%, S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq -0.6% as technology selling continued.
- July Flash PMI expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, helping offset the impact of new 10–12.5% Section 301 tariffs.
- Brent crude fell 4% on Friday but still finished the week up 11% on ongoing Middle East tensions.
China Strategy: Evolution of H-Share IPO Premium/Discount
- Since 2025, there have been 48 H-share IPOs of listed A-shares, with most seeing HA discounts widen post-listing, with only 20 narrowing.
- Only AI-related H-share IPOs achieved meaningful HA discount narrowing (over 10pp), with non-AI names failing since May 2025.
- The market capitalisation of these IPOs is not decisive for the HA discount change, and the overall market effect has little impact. Hence, the AI theme remains the key.
Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On Mood May Return as Red Sea Tensions Ease
- Kokusai Elec and Micronics may see upside as CXMT’s blockbuster IPO nears, with its retail tranche reportedly 212x oversubscribed.
- TDK, Minebea Misumi and Nitto Denko may face pressure after Qualcomm’s price hike points to lower sales of cheaper handsets across Asia.
- Ibiden and TEL look unfairly sold on Friday and worth revisiting today.
China Healthcare Weekly Wrap (20-24 July)
- Akeso-Partner Summit Therapeutics released 2Q26 results. See our takeaways published earlier Akeso (9926.HK): SMMT 2Q26 Call Takeaways on Ivonescimab
- Harbour Bio, MicroPort MedBot, and Shanghai HeartCare released positive profit alerts; Wuxi Bio reached 10,000 molecules milestone; Ribo Life released positive Europe phase 2a study in its siRNA FXI inhibitor
- China’s NMPA become the first approved Takeda’s orexin narcolepsy drug; Science and Retraction Watch reported a girl death from a brain base-editing trial in Shanghai
SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #3 | 18–25 July 2026
- Mixed Recovery: US memory names bounced 6–9% (Micron, SanDisk) while Korean names barely moved. Forced liquidation is still clearing. Alphabet’s USD200bn capex hike validates the AI memory thesis.
- SK Hynix Q2 results on 29 July — consensus KRW84T revenue, KRW64T operating profit, ~75–77% margin — is the week’s defining event. First print as a Nasdaq-listed company.
- Long SK Hynix (000660 KS / SKHY US) open: entry KRW1,842,000, current KRW1,759,000. CXMT (688825 CH) debuts on STAR Market Monday — Asia’s largest IPO of 2026.
