United States

• Astera Labs delivered strong third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, surpassing their expectations with a notable increase in revenue and profitability metrics.
• The company’s quarterly revenue reached $230.6 million, marking a 20% increase from the previous quarter and a remarkable 104% growth compared to the same period last year.
• This significant growth was driven by broad-based performance across its product lines, including signal conditioning, smart cable modules, and switch fabrics.

• Adobe Systems Incorporated has reported strong financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, showcasing continued double-digit growth in both revenue and profitability, driven largely by its strategic emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI).
• The company saw record revenue of $5.99 billion, marking a 10% increase year-over-year, while GAAP earnings per share reached $4.18 and non-GAAP earnings per share was $5.31, reflecting an impressive 14% growth.
• The incorporation of AI into Adobe’s product suite has been a significant focus, as exemplified by the deployment of AI innovations across its flagship Creative Cloud applications like Photoshop, Illustrator, and Premiere Pro.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported a robust third quarter in 2025, showcasing significant revenue growth across its business segments driven by strong product demand.
• For the quarter, AMD’s revenue increased by 36% year-over-year, reaching $9.2 billion.
• This growth was broad-based, with strong performance in the data center, server, gaming, and PC segments.

• DRAM has jumped 172 % YoY and is still climbing; another 30–50 % hike is baked into Q4, wiping out the 4–6 % operating margins most PC OEMs live on.
• Intel’s soldered-down LPDDR5X, once hated for killing the lucrative RAM-up-sell, now locks the memory cost inside the processor.
• With memory inflation off their books via a safe margin play, OEMs can hold notebook ASPs and guidance

• Live Nation Entertainment recently discussed its performance and strategy during its investor meeting, highlighting both opportunities and challenges facing the company.
• Live Nation, a dominant player in the live entertainment industry, has projected continuous growth in its key markets, leveraging global expansion and consumer trends.
• One of the significant highlights is the company’s outlook on the industry.

• Palo Alto Networks recently discussed their fourth quarter financial results, detailing both positive achievements and certain challenges.
• The company reported a significant growth trajectory, crossing the $10 billion revenue mark, a first for a dedicated cybersecurity company.
• This milestone reflects the successful execution of a long-term strategy focused on preemptive cybersecurity advancements tailored to match the evolving market landscape.

• Leidos Holdings, Inc., a prominent player in the defense, aviation, information technology, and biomedical research fields, has reported a solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2025.
• The company continues to display resilience in navigating a dynamic and uncertain macroeconomic landscape, bolstered by its strategic initiatives and governmental partnerships.
• Leidos reported a 7% year-over-year increase in revenue to $4.47 billion, illustrating strong top-line growth despite challenges such as the government shutdown and previous headwinds from efficiency reviews.

• Klook Technology Limited, travel and leisure booking platform company with leadership position in APAC intra-regional travel, aims to raise up to $500M in US IPO.
• The company is expected to IPO in December. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering and Klook will list its ADSs on the NYSE.
• My IPO valuation analysis coalesces around initial valuation range between $2.5B and $3.5B for Klook Technology Limited upcoming offering.

• Tyler Technologies reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with revenues growing by nearly 10% year-over-year.
• This growth was driven by a 20% increase in SaaS revenue and an 11.5% rise in transaction revenue.
• The company has maintained a steady pipeline of business, supported by stable RFP and demo activities, suggesting a resilient demand in the public sector for Tyler’s solutions.

• Yum!
• Brands, Inc. delivered a robust performance in the third quarter of 2025, accentuated by strong system sales and core operating profit growth.
• The company’s comprehensive strategy focused on leveraging its scale and brand strengths, primarily through its key brands, KFC and Taco Bell, which collectively account for a significant portion of its operating profit.

• Microsoft has significantly course corrected on their compute capacity build out, demurred on their right of first refusal for OpenAI compute demand and adopted a risk off “fungible” compute strategy
• Mr. Nadella thinks AGI as more hype than substance, “jagged” intelligence will remain problematic for a longer, and the true measure of AI success will be measured by GDP growth
• Microsoft stopped reporting AI-driven ARR when the number hit $13 billion six months ago, but why? Broadly deploying AI into productivity tools is a marathon not a sprint.

• The market waited with bated breath as NVIDIA released their quarterly earnings yesterday on 19th November, 2025. To almost no one’s surprise, they beat the estimates again.
• The company is a juggernaut to say the least and has added $1.9 Trillion in market cap in the last 8 months!
• That is more than Tesla or Meta’s market cap themselves. The statistics are almost unbelievable.

• NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain
• TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA’s Smooth Transition to GB300
• NVIDIA’s Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem

• Arista Networks reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, achieving a record revenue of $2.31 billion, a year-over-year increase of 27.5%.
• This growth was supported by the increasing demand for their networking solutions, particularly in the AI and cloud segments.
• Notably, Arista’s software and services accounted for approximately 18.7% of the quarter’s revenue, reflecting the company’s strategic emphasis on diversifying its revenue streams beyond hardware.

• All eligible US IPOs that went public from 1 August to 31 October will get added to a major US index in December 2025.
• The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of market cap are Bullish US (BLSH US), FT Intermediate (FIGR US) and Fermi (FRMI US).
• The largest forecasted IPO additions in terms of passive fund impact include Legence (LGN US), Via Transportation (VIA US) and Avidia Bancorp (AVBC US).

• Qorvo, Inc.’s fiscal second-quarter results for 2026 showed solid performance, although there are mixed signals in terms of the outlook and strategic focus.
• Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.059 billion, with non-GAAP gross margins at 49.7% and earnings per share at $2.22, all surpassing the company’s guidance.
• However, the company faces challenges due to its restructuring efforts and a strategic pivot away from the lower-margin Android segment.

• Hims & Hers Health recently reported its third-quarter results for 2025, showcasing both potential opportunities and challenges as the company expands its footprint in the healthcare sector.
• The company reported substantial revenue growth of nearly 49% year-over-year, reaching close to $600 million, a reflection of its strategic shift towards personalized healthcare solutions.
• However, despite this impressive growth trajectory, several factors warrant a closer look.

• Exelon Corporation reported notable financial and operational outcomes for the third quarter of 2025, achieving earnings of $0.86 per share, an increase from $0.71 in the previous year’s third quarter.
• This performance exceeds expectations due to warmer weather and favorable storm conditions.
• Despite inflationary pressures and variable interest expenses, Exelon reaffirms its full-year operating earnings guidance between $2.64 and $2.74 per share, aiming to meet or surpass the midpoint of this range.

• Marriott International’s third-quarter 2025 results demonstrate a mixed performance with several key indicators reflecting the broader intricacies of the global hospitality market.
• On the positive side, Marriott reported financial outcomes that exceeded previous expectations, driven largely by a solid development pipeline and significant portfolio growth.
• The company expanded its room repertoire by 4.7% year-over-year, reaching over 1.75 million rooms across more than 9,700 properties worldwide.

• CBC priced at the low end and delivered a steady first-day performance, a strong outcome for an OTC up-listing with limited float.
• Investor demand was multiple-times oversubscribed, driven by long-only and sector specialists, with the family retaining majority control and offering only 7.4% of shares.
• Near-Term trading is expected to quiet sharply, with the stock likely to move in line with broader regional bank sector trends rather than company-specific catalysts.

• Palantir Technologies Inc. has recently reported an exceptionally strong set of financial results for Q3 2025, marked by significant revenue growth and an impressive expansion of its U.S. commercial business.
• The company reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 63%, with particularly notable performance in the U.S. where revenue increased by 77%.
• A major contributor to this success was the expansion of Palantir’s U.S. commercial segment, which grew by 121% year-over-year.

• NVIDIA Corporation’s recent earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 highlighted a record quarter in terms of total revenue, driven by widespread adoption of its comprehensive product suite across various sectors.
• The company reported a total revenue of $46.7 billion, surpassing its expectations with substantial growth noted in its data center segment, which increased by 56% year-over-year.
• The rollout of new technology, including the Blackwell platform and GB300 systems, was cited as a key driver of this growth, facilitating NVIDIA’s expansion in the AI infrastructure space.

• BWX Technologies, Inc. reported robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, although there are notable elements that both support and challenge its broader financial landscape.
• The company highlighted a 12% rise in organic revenue alongside approximately 20% growth in both adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share, indicating effective operational execution.
• A robust book-to-bill ratio of 2.6 further underscored BWXT’s booking strength, driven by significant contracts in national security, particularly in defense fuels and high-purity depleted uranium.

• Vertex Pharmaceuticals presented a robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a revenue of $3.08 billion, marking an 11% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
• This growth was spurred by continued strength in its cystic fibrosis (CF) portfolio, along with the expanding market presence of its newer treatments such as ALYFTREK and JOURNAVX.
• Positively, Vertex is diversifying its revenue streams beyond CF, with momentum building for CASGEVY—a onetime treatment for severe sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.

• Klook Technology Limited, a SoftBank-backed Asia’s leading platform for experiences and travel activities, filed for an IPO in the United States.
• The company became a unicorn in 2018 and was valued at $1B+ in 2025. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are the lead bankers on the upcoming offering.
• As of the end of Sep-25, Klook platform served 10.7M+ annual transacting users, spanning 200+ geographic markets worldwide. Since its launch, the mobile app has been downloaded ~70M times.

• Global oil outlooks diverged in November as the EIA cut demand forecasts, and the IEA lifted projections. However, both agencies expect supply to grow faster than demand.
• The EIA, IEA, and OPEC flag a rising risk of oversupply heading into 2026, noting that expanding production and already-elevated inventories could keep the market looser.
• Strong U.S. LNG exports prompted the EIA to raise its Henry Hub forecasts, signalling price strength will rely more on robust export demand than on domestic consumption this winter.

• NVDA has $500bn revenue visibility for Blackwell and Rubin. This implies that Data Center Computing revenues will increase by ~70% in 2026.
• Cloud capacity is fully utilized, 6-year old GPU are fully utilized. Don’t worry about depreciation theories. But the gap between capex and future revenues / profits will remain.
• Consensus is ~20% too low for FY27 and possibly more for FY28, Stock trading below avg PEx.

• Kyivstar recently reported 3Q25 revenue growth of 19.8% YoY to US$297m, with EBITDA rising 20.4% to US$171m.
• Digital revenue reached US$35m (+526% YoY), or 11.9% of total revenue in UAH terms, driven primarily by Uklon. Excluding Uklon, digital growth was still 89% YoY (Helsi, Kyivstar TV, Enterprise).
• Maintain Structural Long rating and US$19.8 target price for Kyivstar. KYIV is delivering resilient growth while investing to anchor Ukraine’s resilience of critical network infrastructure. Long Ukraine, Long Kyivstar.

• Diamondback Energy’s third quarter 2025 results reflect a nuanced position within the energy sector, particularly given the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties.
• The company continues to emphasize capital efficiency and conservative fiscal management, showcasing a 36% reinvestment rate with an aim to generate free cash flow over expanding cash flow operations.
• This cautious deployment of capital aligns with their broader strategy of maintaining financial flexibility and a low cost structure amidst a volatile oil price environment.

• We had been near-term bullish on the S&P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
• The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
• Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we’ll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200

• Bright Horizons Family Solutions recently reported its third-quarter financial results, delivering strong performance with notable growth across its key service segments.
• Revenue increased by 12% to $803 million, driven by significant demand for its education and care benefits.
• Adjusted earnings per share rose by 41% to $1.57, exceeding the company’s expectations.

• Surging U.S. LNG exports, stronger power demand, and shifting weather models have tightened fundamentals, driving Henry Hub futures to near three-year highs despite record output and above-average storage levels.
• Henry Hub’s rally since mid-October has been driven by record LNG exports and colder winter forecasts, which outweighed rising U.S. production and above-average storage levels.
• Options positioning shows short-term caution but growing medium-term optimism, with higher call interest across later contracts signaling expectations for firmer Henry Hub prices into early-2026.

• Crude oil futures ended lower Monday despite rebounding from a soft start in response to reports crude loadings had resumed at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.09/b (2031 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $64.39/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI settled at $59.91/b against a previous close of $60.09/b.
• Ship tracking data showed two oil tankers had docked at Novorossiysk over the weekend, while Reuters quoted local officials saying that crude loadings had resumed following Friday’s drone strikes.

• Golden Entertainment’s acquisition proposal by its chairman values the business at 1x EBITDA, with potential for a 30% increase.
• TrueCar’s founder acquisition at $2.55/share has an 11% spread, with expected closure in Q4 2025 or early 2026.
• AUB Group received a non-binding A$45/share takeover bid from EQT, with a 19% spread and consortium interest.

• POET Technologies is disrupting the photonics industry with a new technology that integrates optical and electronic devices into a single chip, which is smaller, cheaper, faster, more scalable and consumes less power than the current solutions.
• The POET Optical Interposer , and optical engines and light source products based on it, are produced at wafer scale, in large quantities and at low cost using conventional semiconductor fabrication techniques.
• POET now has started to receive orders and has $350 million in cash to ramp production and support working capital as it scales.

• MODG currently trades at a $1.9BN market cap and a $5.4BN enterprise value, but that capital structure is about to materially change.
• With the announced sale of 60% of Topgolf to private equity, MODG will no longer consolidate Topgolf’s heavy lease liabilities—including operating leases, financing leases, and deemed landlord financing obligations—meaning its reported debt and enterprise value will drop significantly.
• Topgolf accounts for the vast majority of these liabilities, while the core Callaway and Active Lifestyle businesses primarily lease retail stores and distribution centers on a much smaller scale.

• Crude oil futures ended higher after a soft trading session earlier when immediate concerns around disruptions to Russian crude receded as loadings resumed from the crucial Novorossiysk port.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were last trading at $65/b (2017 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $64.20/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.78/b against a previous close of $59.91/b.
• Benchmarks have struggled in the early part of the week after loadings resumed from the key Black Sea oil hub following a two-day suspension in the wake of drone strikes.

• CSW Industrials, a multifaceted company operating in diverse industrial segments, reported a robust performance in its fiscal 2026 second quarter.
• The company’s financial achievements were underpinned by strategic acquisitions and disciplined capital allocation.
• Revenue soared to a record $277 million, marking a 22% increase year-over-year, although largely driven by acquisitions like Aspen Manufacturing, PSP Products, and PF Waterworks.

• Exponent, Inc. delivered robust financial performance in Q3 2025, reflecting strong demand across its diversified portfolio.
• Revenues experienced a notable increase, with total revenues rising by 8% year-over-year to $147.1 million, and net revenues—a critical metric excluding reimbursements—increasing by 10% to $137.1 million.
• This growth was largely driven by heightened demand for dispute-related and reactive engagements across key sectors like energy, transportation, life sciences, and construction.

• Fortune Brands Innovations reported its third-quarter results for 2025, providing important insights into its current status and future outlook.
• The company’s performance in this period underscores both strengths and challenges within its business segments, amidst a fluctuating macroeconomic environment.
• Sales for Fortune Brands Innovations held steady at approximately $1.1 billion, remaining flat compared to the same quarter in 2024.

• Merck & Co., Inc.’s third-quarter performance demonstrates its commitment to leveraging scientific advances to deliver value in the healthcare space.
• The company’s revenue for the quarter reached $17.3 billion, a growth of 4% despite foreign exchange headwinds.
• This growth was primarily driven by the continued strength of its oncology segment, notably the drug KEYTRUDA, which saw an 8% increase in sales, contributing $8.1 billion.

• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has disclosed a significant new position in Alphabet Inc., acquiring 17.9 million shares valued at approximately $4.9 billion during Q3 2025.
• This development marks a notable strategic shift by Berkshire, as it trimmed positions in long-held names such as Apple Inc. and Bank of America while initiating and expanding positions in Alphabet, UnitedHealth, and Chubb.
• Alphabet’s shares climbed in extended trading following the announcement, which signals investor enthusiasm over Buffett’s endorsement.

• Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
• Klook connects travelers with merchants providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions and other travel services across the globe.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Avidia Bancorp (AVBC US) went public in August and despite its low market cap, the impact from passive funds is significant due to low liquidity, high free float, and tracking.
• Inclusion in US indices took place in September 2025 with passive fund demand causing an observed impact of 6 ADV.
• Inclusion in a major US index is expected in December 2025 with passive fund demand forecasted to cause an impact of more than 20 ADV. 

• Apple, Qualcomm, and Tesla are all hiring for EMIB-class advanced packaging, signalling an industry shift toward tech where Intel holds a structural edge.
• Intel’s “packaging-first” strategy outlined last year is now visible in real customer activity; foundry share will be won through packaging long before leading-edge wafers.
• With TSMC carrying excess capacity, IFS enters a rare window where early 18A traction and EMIB pull-through can create a credible path to 14A volume wins.

• SPS Commerce delivered a mixed set of results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a solid performance across its core business but highlighting specific challenges in its revenue recovery activities.
• The company achieved a 16% year-over-year increase in revenue to $189.9 million, driven by an 18% growth in recurring revenue and a 20% increase in its fulfillment business.
• The net addition of 450 customers was a significant contributor, surpassing prior expectations, and underscored the company’s robust retail relationship management programs.

• Reddit is demonstrating a powerful growth trajectory, with rapidly scaling revenue, improving profitability, and expanding user monetization, positioning itself as a key data provider in the artificial intelligence economy.
• The company’s recent financial performance has been impressive, with a significant Q3 2025 earnings beat, showcasing accelerating operating leverage, surging advertiser demand, and strong user monetization.
• While facing risks related to the sustainability of its AI licensing revenue and reliance on advertising, Reddit’s ambitious product roadmap, global expansion plans, and deep AI integration present significant opportunities for new revenue streams.

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• VEON’s third quarter shows results tracking closely to our overall expectations and keeping the company on pace to reach our full-year 2025E outlook.
• VEON’s Pakistan fintech business: 3Q25 accelerating momentum — The unit has now become an independent operating unit, signaling potenital future value -unlocking activities.
• We’ve increased our VEON valuation to US$82 based on better than expected Pakistan fintech performance and rising T12M figures — We reiterate our Structural Long rating for VEON.

• Discounted earnings valuation but premium to book; limited float and up-listing suggest muted early trading despite strong fundamentals.
• CBC leverages low-cost deposits, diversified lending, and disciplined organic and acquisition-driven growth to sustain stable, long-term regional banking performance.
• IPO demand is multiple-times oversubscribed; small float and family control create scarcity but may limit early trading liquidity.

• Bone Biologics is pursuing a better and more effective way of dealing with back pain requiring surgery by developing bone regeneration in spinal fusion using the recombinant human protein known as NELL-1/DBX, or NB1.
• The company continues with human trials and reported 3Q2025 financial results that showed good cash balances that should allow testing results to bolster BBLG.

• NVIDIA has secured unprecedented demand visibility with a reported USD 500 Billion order book for its next-gen AI chips, solidifying its position as the keystone of the AI industrial revolution.
• The company’s financial health highlighted by a USD 48.3 Billion net cash balance and strategic capital return, affirming confidence that structural growth will outweigh geopolitical risks.
• Following a period of short-term volatility and profit-taking, the confluence of long-term structural catalysts suggests the stock is poised to resume a higher trajectory and trading range.

• Novelis is the world’s largest producer of flat-rolled aluminum (FRP) products and the global leader in aluminum recycling, uniquely positioning it to benefit from the secular trend towards lightweighting and sustainability in the automotive and beverage packaging industries.
• The company’s business model is centered on a closed-loop recycling system, which provides a significant cost and sustainability advantage over primary aluminum producers, as recycling aluminum requires only 5% of the energy needed for primary production.
• Significant capital investments in expanding rolling and recycling capacity are underway to meet growing demand, particularly in the high-value automotive and beverage can segments. However, operational disruptions and cost inflation present near-term headwinds to profitability.

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• New Leadership, New Strategy: The August 2025 merger of Paramount Global and Skydance Media, creating Paramount Skydance (PSKY), marks a pivotal moment. Led by CEO David Ellison, the new entity aims to blend Paramount’s iconic content library and distribution network with Skydance’s modern production prowess and tech-focused approach. The strategy centers on revitalizing key franchises, achieving profitability in the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) segment, and realizing significant cost synergies, now targeted at $3 billion.
• Navigating a Shifting Media Landscape: PSKY operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving industry characterized by the secular decline of linear television and the intense ‘streaming wars’. The company’s success hinges on its ability to grow its Paramount+ streaming service profitably while managing the decline of its traditional cable and broadcast assets. Management has signaled a focus on technology improvements to enhance user experience and reduce churn on its streaming platforms.
• M&A Remains a Key Theme: The formation of Paramount Skydance is a major act of consolidation, but the company remains a subject of further M&A speculation. As noted by Smartkarma analyst Baptista Research, the company is already contemplating an ambitious bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. This highlights the industry-wide pressure to scale up to compete effectively with larger, well-capitalized rivals, including tech giants like Apple and Amazon.

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• Brady Corporation is a global leader in identification and workplace safety solutions, demonstrating consistent growth through a combination of organic initiatives and strategic acquisitions. The company’s focus on innovation, particularly in high-performance materials and digital integration, positions it well to capitalize on secular tailwinds such as increasing workplace safety regulations and the rise of industrial automation.
• Financial performance is robust, characterized by steady revenue growth, strong and expanding margins, and significant cash flow generation. Brady has a long-standing commitment to shareholder returns, evidenced by a multi-decade history of consecutive annual dividend increases and disciplined capital allocation.
• While exposed to global economic cycles and competitive pressures, Brady’s diversified end-market exposure, strong brand recognition, and niche market leadership provide a resilient foundation. Future growth is expected to be driven by continued R&D investment, expansion in high-growth regions, and accretive M&A activity.

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• Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
• The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
• This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.

• The Children’s Place is navigating a significant downturn, characterized by persistent revenue declines, net losses, and negative cash flows, driven by intense competition and macroeconomic pressures on its core consumer.
• A new management team has been installed in 2024 and is implementing a turnaround strategy focused on reducing promotions to improve gross margins, cutting SG&A expenses, and optimizing its omnichannel strategy. The success of this execution is paramount but carries a high degree of uncertainty.
• The company faces severe financial risks, including a high debt load, negative shareholder equity, and liquidity concerns. While the stock appears inexpensive on some metrics, the potential for further sales declines and margin pressure makes it a high-risk, speculative investment.

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• The Wall Street Journal recently published a good article highlighting that streaming costs are soaring but consumers continue to be willing to pay.

• This is good news for Starz (STRZ), a pure play streaming service that is relatively cheap vs. its larger competitors.
• I continue to think Starz looks attractive. It is showing sequential revenue growth and OTT subscriber growth yet trades at 3.7x EBITDA and 2x FCF.

• Crude oil futures on Friday continued to recover from three-week lows as Russian supply disruptions and broader geopolitical concerns got the better of oversupply fears at least for the day Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.35/b (2015 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.01/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.04/b against a previous close of $59.70/b.
• The latest drone strike from Ukraine targeted the Black Sea export hub of Novorossiysk overnight Thursday.
• Multiple reports, including from Russian and Ukraine media, reported a major blaze at the terminal, suggesting significant disruption in loading crude from the Black Sea hub.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio
• Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction

• Merit Medical Systems reported a strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, showing substantial growth across various financial indicators.
• The company achieved total revenue of $384.2 million, representing a 13% increase year-over-year on a GAAP basis, and 12.5% on a constant currency basis.
• This robust performance was primarily driven by 7.8% constant currency organic growth, surpassing the previously forecasted 6% high range.

• AppFolio, Inc. has reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showcasing both advancements and challenges as it navigates the property management software industry.
• The company achieved revenue of $249 million, marking a robust 21% increase year-over-year.
• This growth underscores AppFolio’s market strength, driven by their strategic initiatives in expanding new business and enhancing current service offerings, particularly in their Plus and Max premium tiers.

• BorgWarner’s third-quarter results for 2025 reveal a mixed performance, characterized by both encouraging indicators and some ongoing challenges.
• The company’s organic sales growth of just over 2% indicates resilience despite external pressures, including downtime at a major European customer due to a cyber-related issue, which slightly dampened performance.
• Excluding declines in the Commercial Vehicle (CV) battery and Charging Systems segment, organic sales grew approximately 4% year-over-year.

• CCC Intelligent Solutions presented its third quarter results for fiscal 2025, demonstrating a strong financial position with a notable revenue increase and robust performance in expanding AI-driven solutions.
• The company reported a 12% year-over-year revenue growth to $267 million, exceeding guidance estimates.
• This growth was propelled by a 5% contribution from cross-sell and upsell initiatives, 3% from new client acquisitions, and 4% from EvolutionIQ.

• In the second quarter of 2025, Chevron Corporation delivered a robust financial performance, reflecting strategic accomplishments and operational efficiency.
• The company reported earnings of $2.5 billion, equating to $1.45 per share, with adjusted earnings amounting to $3.1 billion or $1.77 per share.
• Several notable factors, including special items and foreign currency effects, impacted the earnings.

• Cavco Industries, Inc. recently reported their second quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings, showcasing both strengths and challenges.
• Positive aspects included a 9.7% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by a 5.4% increase in homes sold and a 4.4% increase in average revenue per home sold.
• Operating profit spiked by 27% compared to the previous year, indicative of robust operational performance and cost management efficiency.

• Existential Threat from Wildfire Litigation: The company faces monumental challenges following the August 2023 Maui wildfires. A global settlement has been reached in principle, with HEI’s portion being approximately $1.99 billion to resolve tort claims. While this provides a path forward, the financial overhang is severe and will require significant financing, pressuring the balance sheet for years.
• Operational and Financial Restructuring: In response to the crisis, HEI has suspended its dividend, sold non-core assets, and is intensely focused on wildfire mitigation and grid hardening, with a planned investment of $400 million from 2025-2027. Credit rating agencies have downgraded the company to below investment grade, reflecting the heightened risk profile, although recent positive legal developments have led to some upgrades and a more stable outlook.
• Regulated Monopoly with a Cloudy Future: As the provider of electricity to 95% of Hawaii’s population, HEI operates as an essential monopoly. However, its future is contingent on navigating the settlement financing, maintaining regulatory support from the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission for cost recovery and investments, and successfully executing its wildfire safety strategy to prevent future catastrophes.

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• Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported a performance in the third quarter of 2025 that showcased both strategic successes and challenges.
• The company’s contract sales rose impressively by 17% to $907 million, setting a record on a pro forma basis.
• This growth underpinned a noticeable improvement in both real estate profitability and adjusted EBITDA, which reached $302 million, marking near double-digit growth.

• CNX Resources Corporation reported its third-quarter 2025 results, discussing operational and financial metrics, including notable buybacks and strategic acquisitions.
• The company showed robust free cash flow, which facilitated a significant stock repurchase, evidencing a strong belief in its valuation relative to intrinsic worth.
• This buyback was the largest since the fourth quarter of 2022, underscoring the company’s strategic focus on returning value to shareholders.

• Pfizer and Novo Nordisk engaged in a heated battle for control over biotech company Metcera, which is developing innovative weight loss drugs
• Novo Nordisk, once seen as a leader in the obesity drug market, has recently faced challenges and a decline in stock price due to competition from Eli Lilly and a weaker drug pipeline
• Investors are closely watching the outcome of the bidding war between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk, as the future of the weight loss drug market could be lucrative and competitive

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• Golden Entertainment’s sale-leaseback with VICI involves 7 casinos, distributing 24.3m VICI shares to shareholders at 0.902/share.
• Chairman Blake Sartini’s privatization offer values RemainCo at $2.75/share, approximately 1x EBITDA, sparking activist opposition.
• Activists demand separate votes for transactions, citing inadequate RemainCo valuation and potential 33% upside to $39.5/share.

• Chinese purchases of US agricultural products are expected to increase gradually but may take time due to seasonality and price competitiveness
• US farmers may see more optimism in the 2026-2027 season as trade discussions with China improve and market participation increases
• The complex nature of US-China trade relations and the continued volatility in the agricultural markets make for a clouded outlook, but there is potential for growth and market shifts in the near future.

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• Trane Technologies delivered robust performance in the third quarter of 2025, exhibiting significant growth in key business segments despite challenges in certain markets.
• The company reported record quarterly bookings of $6 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year organic growth and expanding its adjusted operating margins by 170 basis points.
• Additionally, Trane Technologies achieved a 15% growth in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and demonstrated robust free cash flow generation.

• Amazon.com reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting both progress and challenges across its business segments.
• Total revenue reached $180.2 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 12% when adjusting for foreign exchange impacts.
• Operating income was reported at $17.4 billion, however, this was impacted by two significant expenses: a $2.5 billion FTC settlement and $1.8 billion in estimated severance costs.

• Apple Inc. reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, showcasing an impressive performance with total revenue reaching $102.5 billion, an 8% increase from the same period last year, marking a record for the September quarter.
• The company’s services sector set an all-time revenue record with $28.8 billion, reflecting a substantial 15% growth, largely driven by strong demand across developed and emerging markets.
• Additionally, the company saw a record earning per share (EPS) of $1.85, marking another significant achievement.

• Crocs, Inc.’s third quarter of 2025 revealed a complex performance landscape driven by strategic decisions and market conditions.
• The company, known for both the Crocs and HEYDUDE brands, demonstrated efforts to realign its operations toward long-term growth despite short-term challenges.
• On the positive side, Crocs, Inc. showcased strong profitability and cash flow in the quarter, which facilitated share repurchases and debt reduction.

• With an in-line 3Q’FY25 revenue, the next major catalyst for GRAIL Inc. is the Galleri PMA submission to FDA, which is expected to occur in 1Q’FY26.  
• The #1 MCED screening test maker has guided to cash burn of <$290M for FY25 and the company’s cash position of $850M+ provides runway into 2030.
• Despite Galleri’s early stage, I view GRAIL Inc. as a very high quality company, which is a clear leader in MCED testing market in the United States.

• AXT is a key manufacturer of specialty compound semiconductor substrates (InP, GaAs, Ge), which are critical for high-performance applications where silicon is inadequate, such as 5G, data centers, and AI.
• The company is currently navigating a cyclical downturn, reflected in recent financial losses and negative cash flow. However, recent quarterly results suggest a potential recovery, driven by strong demand for Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates used in data center and AI applications.
• Significant geopolitical risk exists due to the company’s reliance on its manufacturing facilities in China and the associated export permit requirements, which have previously caused revenue delays.

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• Arrow Electronics Inc. has demonstrated a mixed bag of performance and outlook in the latest quarter, indicating areas of strength as well as challenges that the company faces.
• The company’s revenue for the third quarter of 2025 reached $7.7 billion, marking a significant increase of $890 million year-over-year.
• This was above the midpoint of the guidance range and reflects a 13% growth compared to the previous year.

• November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.
• Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.
• Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.

• Natera is a leader in the high-growth cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing market, with a strong portfolio spanning women’s health (Panorama), oncology (Signatera), and organ health (Prospera).
• The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth, driven by the strong uptake of its Signatera test for cancer monitoring, and is demonstrating significant operational leverage with improving gross margins and a clear trajectory towards positive free cash flow.
• While the company’s proprietary SNP-based technology provides a competitive advantage, Natera faces significant risks related to reimbursement uncertainty, intense competition, and the need to achieve sustained profitability after a history of net losses.

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• NVIDIA Corporation’s recent earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 highlighted a record quarter in terms of total revenue, driven by widespread adoption of its comprehensive product suite across various sectors.
• The company reported a total revenue of $46.7 billion, surpassing its expectations with substantial growth noted in its data center segment, which increased by 56% year-over-year.
• The rollout of new technology, including the Blackwell platform and GB300 systems, was cited as a key driver of this growth, facilitating NVIDIA’s expansion in the AI infrastructure space.

• Eli Lilly and Company delivered a robust financial and operational performance in the third quarter of 2025.
• The company reported a 54% increase in revenue year-over-year, driven by strong sales of key drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound.
• These products showed significant market penetration, particularly in the U.S., where Lilly has captured a dominant share of the incretin analogs market.

• Twilio’s third-quarter results for 2025 reveal a mix of strong performance metrics and ongoing strategic advancements that could impact investors’ perspectives on the company.
• The company reported a record $1.3 billion in revenue, marking a 15% increase year-over-year, and $235 million in non-GAAP income from operations, both above expectations.
• This translates to a non-GAAP operating margin of 18%, albeit with a slight sequential improvement.

• In a landmark move underscoring its deepening AI infrastructure ambitions, Oracle has emerged as a central player in the $38 billion Jacquard AI data center financing project, a joint venture involving OpenAI and SoftBank.
• The initiative—dubbed “Stargate”—will be developed by Vantage Data Centers and consists of two massive AI facilities in Texas and Wisconsin.
• Oracle is not merely a tenant in this project; it has signed a 15-year lease agreement and committed to a $300 billion purchase contract with OpenAI, positioning itself as a critical AI infrastructure provider.

• Klook (KLK US), the largest pan-regional experiences platform in the APAC region, is seeking to raise between US$400 million through a NYSE IPO.    
• Founded in 2014, Klook connects travellers with merchants, providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions, and other travel services across the globe.
• The investment case rests on market leadership, healthy GTV growth, establishing a path to sustainable profitability, improving FCF profile and a debt-free balance sheet.  

• Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
• Klook connects travelers with merchants providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions and other travel services across the globe.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation reported its third quarter 2025 financial and operating results, demonstrating a strong performance with notable production growth.
• The company achieved a record quarterly production rate of 100,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase.
• The production gains were particularly significant in the Giddings area, where oil production rose by nearly 5% compared to the previous year.

• First Solar’s third quarter 2025 earnings results reveal a mixed picture featuring both strengths and challenges.
• On the one hand, the company reported record module sales of 5.3 gigawatts, reaching an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.24, in line with earlier projections.
• The firm also increased its gross cash position to $2 billion, bolstered by improved working capital and customer payments.

• Global copper demand is stabilising after months of weakness, even as inventories thin out. The ICSG now expects a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast of a surplus.
• A softer dollar and expectations of continued Fed easing are improving the backdrop for commodities. The copper–gold ratio sits near 30-year lows, signalling room for mean reversion.
• The bullish setup hinges on growth holding up and exceeding the rate of growth of China. Electrification to be the biggest driver.

• AMD achieved unprecedented revenue of $9.2 billion in Q3 2025, a 36% YoY growth driven despite margin contraction in the data centre segment.
• Despite record data centre revenue of $4.3 billion, the uplift was carried by fifth-gen EPYC server CPUs rather than Instinct GPUs.
• Multi-Year GPU commitments (from OpenAI to Oracle) strengthen the AI narrative without near-term numbers; Q4 guidance implies just 4% sequential growth, underscoring a digestion phase before the MI400 ramp.

• Atlassian Corporation Plc reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, achieving total revenue growth of 21% year-over-year, amounting to $1.4 billion.
• A significant contributor to this growth was their cloud revenue, which saw a 26% increase to $998 million.
• Additionally, the company’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) grew impressively by 42% to $3.3 billion.

• Quanta Services has released their third quarter 2025 results reporting impressive figures with record growth in several financial metrics, including double-digit increases in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS compared to the previous year.
• The company’s backlog reached a record $39.2 billion, indicating robust demand and a strong position going into 2026.
• This growth can be attributed to heightened activity in their Electric segment and the broader infrastructural needs driven by the transformation within the energy sector.

• Viomi preannounced in August that its first-half revenues would exceed RMB 1.4 billion ($195 million), and this week, the company published its complete income statement for the first six months, which demonstrated strong performance in the company’s core market.
• We believe government policies in China drove a meaningful portion of the revenue growth in the first half.
• We are not expecting that this program renews in 2026, but we will adjust our model if that changes.

• Key F2Q26 takeaways include: 1) edging up our F2026 (Mar) EPS estimate by a penny to $0.02, while our F2027 forecast remains unchanged at $0.04, as a slightly flatter revenue growth trajectory is offset by more favorable margin assumptions 2) no change to our $1.00 price target suggesting meaningful upside potential from current levels, as ETST continues to trade at what we believe to be an unsustainably low valuation despite the company’s unique business model, compelling growth track record, improving profitability, and strong balance sheet and 3) balance sheet assets totaled $8.7 million, including cash of $1.2 million as of 9/30/25, up from $5.1 million a year ago, with net cash generated from operating activities of $1.2 million for the first six months of F2026.

• HIT recently introduced a key expansion of its Do-It-Yourself Benefit System (eDIYBS) to extend capabilities to employers with 150 or more & is extremely encouraged about the prospects.
• HIT also is testing a 3-year rate hold solution – expected to launch in 1Q26 – that it expects to boost customer retention and provide additional offerings for its distribution partners, and with JV partner AlphaTON Capital plans to jointly develop a blockchain-enabled healthcare insurance claims processing platform, HITChain, to address inefficiency and fraud in the domestic healthcare: claims processing space, lower administrative costs and improve transparency.

• L3Harris Technologies reported positive financial results in its third quarter of 2025, highlighting both significant opportunities and challenges.
• The company reported revenue of $5.7 billion, reflecting strong organic growth of 10% across its four segments, marking its position as a formidable player in the defense sector.
• This growth was attributed largely to increased volume on existing programs, new program ramps, and heightened international demand, with the company noting a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2, indicating a healthy pipeline.

• Namib Minerals outlined operational guidance for 2025, targeting 24-25Koz of gold and adjusted EBITDA of $22-26M, while focusing on grade optimization and throughput improvement at its How Mine.
• Management outlined a phased restart plan for Redwing and Mazowe, with early-stage dewatering and infrastructure upgrades set to begin.
• We initiated coverage on NAMM (see here), highlighting its strong growth potential as it advances two restart projects.

• Omega Healthcare Investors is a leading real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), positioned to benefit from powerful long-term demographic tailwinds of an aging population.
• The company’s triple-net lease model is designed to provide stable, predictable cash flows, supporting a historically strong dividend. However, this model’s success is heavily reliant on the financial health and operational stability of its tenant operators.
• Key risks to the investment thesis include the significant dependence on government reimbursement policies (Medicare and Medicaid), which are subject to change, and the persistent operational challenges faced by SNF operators, such as rising labor costs and staffing shortages.

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