United States

Asia’s base oils demand likely to face more downward pressure as slowing industrial activity in key regional markets start to reflect impact of US tariffs.
Demand already slowed amid uncertainty about impact of tariffs.
Slowdown in demand highlights widespread repercussion of tariffs, even for products that are not directly impacted.

EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): Retail Trading Platform Eyeing $4b Valuation; BlackRock in on the IPO

The company set terms with a F-1/A putting 10 million shares for sale at a range of $46-$50 which would value the company as high as $4.05b.
BlackRock and funds managed by BlackRock placed a 20-percent cornerstone investment order and is on the cover of the prospectus.
The blueprint to getting an IPO out the door during this time is to shrink the size of the transaction, bring in a cornerstone investor and provide an attractive valuation.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/18] WTI Tumbles on OPEC Supply Boost and Economic Growth Fears

By Suhas Reddy

WTI futures fell 7.5% for the week ending 02/May, weighed by OPEC supply hike and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade negotiations.
The U.S. rig count fell by three to 584. The oil rig count fell by four to 479, while gas rigs grew by two to 101.
WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.84 on 02/May from 0.82 on 25/Apr. Call OI rose by 7.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 8.9%.

HIT: Strong 1Q25 Revenue Growth as HIT Expands its Offerings & Broadens its Target Market

To broaden its TAM, HIT began beta testing a large-group 3rd-party AI-powered underwriting platform in 4Q24 & is optimistic about its prospects, based on interest generated to-date.
In 1Q25, the company delivered solutions to large employers, including one with 1k+ employees.
HIT believes the infrastructure it has established position it for strong growth, as it broadens its TAM and expands its offerings, often via collaborations such as one formed recently with DialCare to integrate DialCare’s virtual primary care, therapy, and psychiatry services into Health In Tech’s self-funded health plan offerings.

HIT: Newly Formed Advisory Board and Advisor With Extensive Public Affairs Experience Appear Timely

As HIT continues to expand services and enhance its platform, the company aims to broaden its target market, as it believes that organizations of all sizes can benefit from its AI-driven technology platform, which is designed to streamline and facilitate the process of researching and obtaining healthcare insurance.
HIT began development of a large-group third-party AI-powered underwriting solutions for mid-sized and larger businesses and, in 1Q25, delivered solutions to large employers, including one that employs 1k+ people.

Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher

By The Commodity Report

The FAO Food Price Index rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March.
Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils.
Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.

TWI: Titan reports 1st quarter 2025 financial and operating results which showed revenue growth above our expectations. The company also commented on the effects of global tariffs on its business.

Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
Long-term secular tailwinds exist in the global agricultural, infrastructure and construction markets.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Valuation Entices Investors as Orders Flow into IPO

According to guidance that the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with high-quality 1-on-1 conversions.
Aspen is selling itself at or slightly below the $30.73 per share book value of comps.
Apollo Global has done a fair job of cleaning up Aspen and making it increasingly more profitable while reducing exposure to reinsurance and property in vulnerable areas.

DYLLF: The Board has opted for a staged development approach at Tumas until uranium prices justify full-scale construction of a greenfield uranium project meanwhile

Deep Yellow Limited(DYLLF) Company Sponsored Research Report

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May 05

Daily Brief United States: S&P Global and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)

Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)

S&P Global (SPGI) announced on April 29, 2025, its intention to spin off its Mobility division into a standalone publicly traded company.
This strategic move aims to streamline operations and allow S&P Global to concentrate on its core businesses: Market Intelligence, Ratings, Commodity Insights, and Dow Jones Indices.
The Mobility division, which provides data and analytics to the automotive industry, generated $1.6 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024, marking an 8% year-over-year increase.

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May 04

Daily Brief United States: Tractor Supply Company, Verisign Inc, Interpublic Group Of Companies, Pool Corp, Lkq Corp, SS&C Technologies, Hasbro Inc, West Pharmaceutical Services Inc, Dover Corp, Dow and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Tractor Supply Company’s PetRx Play: Could This Be the Ultimate Disrupter in Pet Medication?
VeriSign’s Domain Name Registration Growth Is Here To Stay But What Are The Challenges Ahead?
The Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG): Solid Merger Synergies With Omnicom But These Are The 4 BIGGEST Roadblocks In Its Path!
Pool Corporation: A Strategic Approach to Pricing & Market Dynamics To Strengthen Market Stability & Ensure Continued Customer Trust!
LKQ Corporation: An Insight Into Its North American Business Strategy And Its Market Position In Aftermarket Collision Parts!
SS&C Technologies Is Powering Ahead with AI & Platform Growth—But There’s MORE To The Story!
Hasbro Inc.: Supply Chain Optimization & Diversification & 4 Pivotal Factors Driving Growth!
West Pharmaceutical Services: Will Its SmartDose Technology Development Enhance The Business Segment’s Competitive Positioning?
Dover Corporation’s Inventory Gamble: Genius Move Or Costly Misstep In A Volatile Market?
Dow Inc.: Dealing With The Impact Of Broad-Based Tariffs on End Market Demand and Near-Term Profitability!

Tractor Supply Company’s PetRx Play: Could This Be the Ultimate Disrupter in Pet Medication?

Tractor Supply Company (TSC) presented its first quarter results for 2025 with a nuanced report that reflects both strong operational execution and the challenges of a shifting macroeconomic environment.
Total sales reached a record $3.47 billion, marking a 2.1% increase despite a 0.9% decline in comparable store sales.
The growth in sales figures underscores a robust transaction increase; however, it was offset by a decline in the average ticket size, largely attributed to adverse weather conditions impacting seasonal sales and a resulting product mix shift.

VeriSign’s Domain Name Registration Growth Is Here To Stay But What Are The Challenges Ahead?

VeriSign Inc.’s first quarter of 2025 showed a solid performance with a 4.7% increase in revenue, reaching $402 million compared to the same period last year.
This was bolstered by positive trends in domain registrations.
The domain name base for .com and .net increased by 777,000 names from the end of 2024, resulting in a total of 169.8 million domain names.

The Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG): Solid Merger Synergies With Omnicom But These Are The 4 BIGGEST Roadblocks In Its Path!

Interpublic Group’s (IPG) recent earnings detailed the company’s financial and operational performance for the first quarter of 2025, illustrating a mixed yet strategically potent landscape.
With an organic revenue decrease of 3.6%, this was in line with IPG’s expectations for the quarter.
The company attributed this decline to adverse impacts from past account losses, which primarily affected the U.S., Europe, and Asia Pacific regions.

Pool Corporation: A Strategic Approach to Pricing & Market Dynamics To Strengthen Market Stability & Ensure Continued Customer Trust!

Pool Corporation’s (POOLCORP) first-quarter results for 2025 reveal both challenges and resilience amid a fluctuating market environment.
The company recorded net sales of $1.1 billion, a decline of 4% year-over-year, though this figure improved to a 2% decline when adjusting for the same selling days.
The first quarter was marked by challenging weather conditions in key markets and an Easter holiday that shifted sales into the second quarter.

LKQ Corporation: An Insight Into Its North American Business Strategy And Its Market Position In Aftermarket Collision Parts!

LKQ Corporation’s recent financial results reflect a mixed performance, with both favorable developments and ongoing challenges evident in its earnings report.
During the quarter, LKQ reported diluted earnings per share of $0.65, marking a $0.06 increase compared to the previous year.
However, on an adjusted basis, diluted EPS stood at $0.79, reflecting a slight decline of $0.03 from the prior year, mainly due to decreased segment EBITDA dollars in LKQ’s North American market.

SS&C Technologies Is Powering Ahead with AI & Platform Growth—But There’s MORE To The Story!

SS&C Technologies reported a commendable financial performance for the first quarter of 2025.
Adjusted revenue reached $1.5148 billion, reflecting a notable 5.5% increase year-over-year.
The adjusted diluted earnings per share rose by 8.3% to $1.44.

Hasbro Inc.: Supply Chain Optimization & Diversification & 4 Pivotal Factors Driving Growth!

Hasbro performed well in the first quarter of 2025, driven primarily by the success of its Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segments.
The company reported a 17% increase in revenue, reaching $887 million, largely fueled by strong sales from the MAGIC: THE GATHERING franchise and robust licensing performance.
Key strategic initiatives, such as the “Play to Win” strategy, reinforced cost discipline and emphasized profitable growth, contributing to a 50% rise in adjusted operating profit, which resulted in a 70% increase in adjusted earnings per share to $1.04.

West Pharmaceutical Services: Will Its SmartDose Technology Development Enhance The Business Segment’s Competitive Positioning?

West Pharmaceutical Services has demonstrated a resilient first-quarter performance in 2025, achieving results that exceeded initial expectations, notably benefiting from GLP-1 product contributions and reduced destocking impacts.
These factors highlight West’s operational strengths, supported by competitive advantages and robust customer relationships.
For the Proprietary Products division, organic sales growth reflected a moderate 2.4% increase, largely driven by pricing strategies and demand for their high-value (HVP) products.

Dover Corporation’s Inventory Gamble: Genius Move Or Costly Misstep In A Volatile Market?

Dover Corporation reported a positive start to 2025, showcasing a promising first quarter with notable financial performance.
The company’s adjusted earnings per share rose by 19% compared to the previous year, and the adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 240 basis points to reach 24%.
These results were achieved through a healthy mix of growth platforms, structural cost actions from prior periods, and successful pricing strategies.

Dow Inc.: Dealing With The Impact Of Broad-Based Tariffs on End Market Demand and Near-Term Profitability!

The Dow Chemical Company has reported its first-quarter financial results for 2025, presenting a mixed picture of operational achievements and ongoing challenges.
The company generated $10.4 billion in net sales, down 3% from the prior year due to persistent margin pressures across all operating segments.
While sequential sales remained flat, highlighting pricing challenges in Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure and Performance Materials & Coatings, these were somewhat counterbalanced by improvements in downstream silicone markets tied to home, personal care, and electronics.

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May 03

Daily Brief United States: Apple , Starz, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Amazon.com Inc, NVIDIA Corp, Procter & Gamble Co, Lions Gate Entertainment , Whirlpool Corp, Gilead Sciences, Comcast Corp Class A and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China
Starz RemainCo Deep Dive
If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.
Amazon 1Q’25 Update
Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG
Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?
[Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment
Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?
Gilead Sciences: Cell Therapy Adoption & Expansion to Strengthen Its Competitive Position n Its Domain!
Comcast: Will The Management’s Focus on Wireless Expansion and Converged Offerings Help Continue Its Market-Beating Run?

Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China

2Q25 small 2% beat. Products revenue (iPhone, Mac, etc) up 3% YoY. Services up 12%. Jun-25: low- to mid-single digit revenue growth YoY (inline), 100bps hit to margins or US$900m.
Good effort to articulate supply chain reshuffle for products sold in US: iPhone from India, the rest from Vietnam. Beyond June, no quantification of impact on costs and demand.
Despite low 5-8% EPS growth, the stock is expensive due to steady Services growth and large cash returns to shareholders. Trading at 29x FY25 EPS, 27x FY26.

Starz RemainCo Deep Dive

Lions Gate Entertainment will spin off its 87.2% stake in its studio business (Lionsgate Studios, ticker “LION”) from its Starz media networks division, creating two independent public companies, on May 6, 2025.
The RemainCo will be named Starz and trade under the ticker STRZ.
Starz is a premium subscription video service that operates both a traditional premium cable channel and a modern streaming platform (OTT).

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.

By Fallacy Alarm

The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.
It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.
AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.

Amazon 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

While Amazon’s 3P business usually grows faster than 1P, both 1P and 3P retail business grew at similar rate in 1Q’25.
Ads revenue continued its momentum at 19% growth YoY which was higher than both Google and Meta.
After growing at ~19% YoY for the last three consecutive quarters, AWS growth decelerated this quarter to 17%.

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement.
At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth.
Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .

Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?

Procter & Gamble’s recent earnings results present a mixed picture of achievements and challenges.
The company’s organic sales for the third quarter grew by 1%, which indicates modest growth.
This increase was broadly underpinned by pricing strategies that added one percentage point to organic sales growth, while product volume and mix remained consistent with the prior year.

[Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment

On a sum-of-the-parts basis, LION and STRZ are worth significantly more than is reflected in LGF.A’s stock price.
At the close today, investors could buy 1 share of Lionsgate Entertainment (LGF.A) for $8.90. On May 6, that investor will receive 1.12 shares of LION and 1.12 shares of STRZ.
I estimate LION is worth $11 and STRZ is worth $1.71. As such, it looks like there is ~60% upside

Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?

Whirlpool Corporation has demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its latest earnings report, reflecting strategic advantages and challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.
Organic growth of 2% marked a modest improvement, driven largely by strong performance in its Smart Design Asia Global and Major Domestic Appliance Asia sectors.
The company achieved an EBIT margin of nearly 6%, reflecting successful pricing strategies and cost reductions, which helped weather macroeconomic headwinds.

Gilead Sciences: Cell Therapy Adoption & Expansion to Strengthen Its Competitive Position n Its Domain!

Gilead Sciences delivered a mixed performance in their latest financial results, reflecting both strengths and challenges across their portfolio.
The company reported overall product sales of $6.6 billion for the first quarter, a 1% decline year-over-year, primarily attributable to a significant decrease in sales of Veklury, a COVID-19 treatment, which was down 45%.
The core business, however, excluding Veklury, demonstrated growth with a 4% increase, driven largely by their HIV segment and liver disease treatments.

Comcast: Will The Management’s Focus on Wireless Expansion and Converged Offerings Help Continue Its Market-Beating Run?

Comcast Corporation’s latest earnings offered insights into both the opportunities and challenges the company faces in various business segments.
On the positive side, Comcast highlighted robust performance in several growth areas, particularly in residential broadband, wireless, and theme parks.
The strategic shift towards these growth segments is a central part of the company’s business model.

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May 02

Daily Brief United States: Meta Platforms (Facebook), Intel Corp, Qualcomm Inc, SES AI Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Meta 1Q’25 Update
Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?
Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap
SES AI Corp. – MU-0 Shows the Future for SES AI Across Multiple Battery Markets

Meta 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

Digital advertising has surpassed the days of “Mad Men” a while ago and thanks to AI, it seems even better positioned to unlock new markets and more opportunities.
Meta is, of course, one of the companies leading this march.
Here are my highlights from today’s call. Daily Active People (DAP) across its Family of Apps (FOA) accelerated to 80 mn QoQ in 1Q’25.

Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?

By William Keating

On April 29, Intel hosted the latest in a series of “Direct Connect” events, this time focusing on the company’s Foundry progress and plans
They talked about “ups and downs” with 18A, seeming to lower expectations for the process node which former CEO Gelsinger “bet the company on”. Lots of emphasis on 14A instead.
Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually announced that the company was “walking away” from Copy Exactly and “democratizing innovation” at the fabs to fix yield, reliability, predictability and cost challenges. Wow!

Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) 2Q25 (March-25) spot inline with expectations, 4Q guidance inline with expectations. Revenue growth is slowing down sharply in June. Consensus expects further slowdown in 2H25.
QCOM is losing iPhone modem, Android is not growing in units but chips become more expensive with AI, new revenue streams (AI PC, Auto, Industrial IoT) are not well understood.
The result is Consensus forecasting basically no EPS growth in FY26-27 and the stock is trading at 12x EPS, almost -1 standard deviation below average PEx

SES AI Corp. – MU-0 Shows the Future for SES AI Across Multiple Battery Markets

By Water Tower Research

SES AI, a leader in AI-powered battery research, released the first version of Molecular Universe MU- 0 on April 29.
The live demo explained MU-0’s features and pricing structures. Molecular Universe is for mass- produced material discovery and development services, SES AI’s largest and most profitable revenue component.
The company expects the platform to deliver commercially practical winning solutions that help users compete.

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May 01

Daily Brief United States: SunCar Technology Group , Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, JAKKS Pacific , Abeona Therapeutics , Southern Energy Corp, Golden Matrix Group Inc, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

SDA: SunCar reports 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. The company continues to secure multiple business agreements and partnerships.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Outlook: Is The Bear Market Over or Not?
JAKK: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Remain Cautious; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT
ABEO: Zevaskyn Approved by FDA Raising Valuation to 11
Southern Energy Corp. (SOUC LN/SOU CN): Reserves resilient to low US gas prices
GMGI’s goal is to maintain sufficient liquidity and financial flexibility to fund operations and growth.
Don’t Expect A Resolution of Tariff Chaos To Lift Container Shipping Rates Like Covid-19 Did

SDA: SunCar reports 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. The company continues to secure multiple business agreements and partnerships.

By Small Cap Consumer Research

SunCar Technology Group ((NASDAQ: SDA) is a leading Chinese cloud-based provider of digital enterprise auto services and auto eInsurance services in China.
The company offers one-stop, fully digital, on-demand automotive service systems to help enterprise clients build up their customer base and serve their end customers (auto owners).
The company has grown revenues rapidly in recent years, which we expect to continue in the near-to-midterm.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Outlook: Is The Bear Market Over or Not?

By Nico Rosti

The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) stalled this week. The week is not over yet, but let’s take a closer look at our tactical model to assess short-term scenarios.
Obviously tariffs will impact the economy but often markets can defy rationality, leading to short-term pain if we’re positioned incorrectly.
This insight evaluates how far the rally could extend and how deep a pullback might go, this can be of interest to option desks or to anyone looking to hedge.

JAKK: 1Q Review: Impressive Q; Remain Cautious; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $40 price target on JAKKS Pacific after the company demonstrated the overall strength of their business model and management’s ability to “control what they can control” with a highly impressive 1Q25.
That said, we are reducing our 2025 and 2026 projections to reflect the near-term material uncertainty from the imposition of over 100% tariffs on China goods from April onward.
While we believe JAKKS is well positioned, with strong trade, licensee and retailer relationships, a focus on lower priced goods, the ability to shift some production from China and to increase the level of international revenue, to weather the current storm and drive potential upside, we believe the current level of uncertainty will be a drag, which will begin to abate in 4Q25 and into 2026.

ABEO: Zevaskyn Approved by FDA Raising Valuation to 11

On April 29, 2025, Abeona Therapeutics, Inc. (ABEO) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved Zevaskyn (prademagene zamikeracel) for the treatment of wounds in adult and pediatric patients with recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB).
The company announced that the wholesale acquisition cost of Zevaskyn will be $3.1 million, which is significantly higher than what we had been modeling ($1.2 million).
Management also guided that following the commercial launch in the third quarter of 2025, the company expects 10-14 patients to be treated and revenue from those treatments to be recognized by the end of this year.

Southern Energy Corp. (SOUC LN/SOU CN): Reserves resilient to low US gas prices

By Auctus Advisors

• Southern achieved production of 2,259 boe/d in 4Q24, close to with our forecasts of 2,192 boe/d.
The YE24 working capital deficit of US$24.9 mm also met our expectations.
• YE24 1P and 2P reserves were estimated at 12.7 mmboe and 27.9 mmboe, respectively.

GMGI’s goal is to maintain sufficient liquidity and financial flexibility to fund operations and growth.

GMGI’s goal is to maintain sufficient liquidity and financial flexibility to fund operations and growth.
Its capital allocation strategy also includes share repurchases and strategic M&A funded using cash, shares & earnouts.
With strong momentum as illustrated by 63% y/y 2024 revenue improvement, GMGI is expanding its reach and portfolio.

Don’t Expect A Resolution of Tariff Chaos To Lift Container Shipping Rates Like Covid-19 Did

By Daniel Hellberg

The resilience of global container shipping stocks is surprising given weak price trend
Many market participants appear to be betting on a surge in rates after tariff issues settle
But there are several reasons why a bump in rates is unlikely in the near- to medium-term

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Apr 30

Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, Gold, Base Oil, BP , Aspen Insurance Holdings, Natural Gas, American Integrity Insurance Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)
Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets
Sentiment Signal in Gold
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook
American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets

By Nico Rosti

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been in an a prolonged uptrend for several weeks, 1-week pullbacks have been buy-the-dips opportunities so far.
Last week Gold closed down, a modest 1-week pullback, it may be an opportunity to buy but we want to show you where is the ideal support zone to buy.
In this insight we will also identify also profit targets, in case gold keeps rallying from here, so that you know how far the rally can go.

Sentiment Signal in Gold

By The Commodity Report

This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April

US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April

Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

By Suhas Reddy

BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation

A total of 11.0mm shares are being offered with the entirety being offloaded by the sponsor, Apollo Global Securities.
This company was acquired by private-equity titan Apollo Global in a transaction announced in August 2018 and closing in February 2019.
For the three months ended March 31, 2025, Aspen Insurance had gross written premiums of $1.287b vs. $1.231b in the same period in 2024 for an increase of 4.5%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII US) was one of two insurance companies to set terms for an IPO on Tuesday morning for a debut next week.
Gross premiums written increased 43.9% to $212.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $147.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.
The underwriting lineup on this sector, led by Keefe Bruyette & Woods, has a strong track record of pricing and placing transactions in this sector.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April

US base oils price premium to VGO/heating oil prices holds steadier after surging in H1 April 2025.
Firmer margins and steady prices coincide with signs of slowdown in shipments to markets like West Africa in April 2025.
Firmer margins and steadier prices coincide with steadier US Group II price discount to imported cargo prices in markets like India.

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Apr 29

Daily Brief United States: International Business Machines, Lam Research, Lionsgate Studios, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Texas Instruments, Theratechnologies, Servicenow Inc, Netflix Inc, Base Oil, Newmont Mining and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!
Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?
Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive
Chipotle Mexican Grill Revolutionizes Speed, Quality, & Sales With Next-Level Kitchen Innovations!
Texas Instruments: Expansion of Industrial And Automotive Markets & Key Forces Driving Growth!
Potential Takeovers, Legal Battles, and Strategic Reviews: Key Updates on THTX, SWTX, LQDA and More
ServiceNow Inc.: Government Transformation Suite Expansion & Key Growth Catalysts!
Netflix EXPANDS In The Gaming Arena: Is This High-Stakes Gamble Enough to Overcome Its Underperformance?
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April
Newmont’s $1.3 Billion Bet: Can Strategic Capital Allocation Spark a New Era of Growth?

Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) delivered solid performance in its first-quarter 2025 results, exhibiting a combination of strengths and challenges as it continues to pursue its strategic focus on hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence (AI).
IBM reported a total revenue of $14.5 billion for the quarter, marking a 2% increase at constant currency from the previous year.
This growth was primarily driven by robust performance in the Software segment which rose by 9% thanks to advancements across Red Hat, Automation, Data, and Transaction Processing.

Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?

Lam Research reported a strong performance in the March 2025 quarter, exceeding the midpoint of guidance across key financial metrics such as revenue, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS.
The company achieved record foundry revenues, attributing much of this success to robust execution and strategic investments in manufacturing and operations, leading to improved gross margins post-Novellus merger.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive

Lionsgate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) recently approved the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). The spin-off should happen within a few weeks.
Lionsgate Studio has carved out a niche as a lean, franchise-focused independent studio that thrives in the mid-budget, IP-driven segment of the entertainment industry.
It punches above its weight by targeting profitable genre films, franchise extensions, and strategic licensing — while avoiding the financial risk of mega-budget blockbusters.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Revolutionizes Speed, Quality, & Sales With Next-Level Kitchen Innovations!

Chipotle Mexican Grill’s first quarter fiscal 2025 results illustrate a complex interplay of growth initiatives and external headwinds.
The company reported a 6% increase in total sales, reaching $2.9 billion; however, there was a slight decline in comparable sales by 0.4%.
Digital sales accounted for 35.4% of total sales, reflecting the ongoing importance of digital channels.

Texas Instruments: Expansion of Industrial And Automotive Markets & Key Forces Driving Growth!

By Special Situation Investments

Texas Instruments (TI) reported its first-quarter 2025 results, showcasing a moderate revenue growth trajectory, yet in an environment fraught with external challenges.
Revenue for the quarter was $4.1 billion, marking a 2% sequential increase and an 11% increase year-over-year.
This growth was primarily driven by a 13% year-overyear increase in Analog revenue, while Embedded Processing remained relatively unchanged.

Potential Takeovers, Legal Battles, and Strategic Reviews: Key Updates on THTX, SWTX, LQDA and More

Theratechnologies (THTX) received a non-binding takeover offer from Future Pak, with a potential 62% upside including CVR.
Merck KGaA is nearing a $47/share acquisition of SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX), with no competing bidders reported.
Liquidia (LQDA) and UTHR are engaged in legal battles over patent infringement and Yutrepia’s approval, affecting market valuations.

ServiceNow Inc.: Government Transformation Suite Expansion & Key Growth Catalysts!

ServiceNow reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing substantial growth in key performance indicators while also navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment.
The company’s focus on expanding its artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities and deepening customer relationships were major highlights.
Subscription revenue increased by 20% year-over-year in constant currency, slightly surpassing guidance.

Netflix EXPANDS In The Gaming Arena: Is This High-Stakes Gamble Enough to Overcome Its Underperformance?

Netflix’s first-quarter 2025 earnings reaffirmed its strong positioning in the media and entertainment landscape, bolstered by strategic shifts over the past few years.
The company reported adjusted earnings of $6.61 per share on revenue of $10.54 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $5.67 per share on $10.5 billion revenue.
Netflix did not update its subscriber count this quarter after posting a record net gain of 18.9 million paid subscriptions last quarter, instead highlighting higher than-expected operating income and ad revenue as key performance drivers.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April

Asia’s base oils demand could wane as expectations of improving supply and more muted end-user consumption incentivize blenders to keep low stocks.
High base oils margins could add to buyers’ preference to hold back amid concern about disconnect between high margins and prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
More muted regional demand would speed up recovery in supply as more plant maintenance draws to a close in coming weeks.

Newmont’s $1.3 Billion Bet: Can Strategic Capital Allocation Spark a New Era of Growth?

Newmont Corporation’s recent quarterly results reveal a solid start to 2025, driven by strong operational performance and favorable market conditions, particularly the high gold prices.
The company produced 1.5 million ounces of gold and 35,000 tonnes of copper in the first quarter, aligning with annual guidance.
These figures have supported record first-quarter cash flows, with operating cash flows at $2 billion and free cash flow at $1.2 billion.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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✓ Company Data and News
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Apr 28

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, AppLovin , Copper and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door
S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One’s Approved Acquisition
Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door

By William Keating

Intel reported Q125 revenues of $12.7 billion, down 0.4% YoY, down 11% QoQ but still $500 million above the guided midpoint, precisely the same beat as in the prior quarter.
Looking ahead, Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, this time extending the range from $1 billion in the prior quarter to $1.2 billion
LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many senior executives the door. That’s good.

S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One’s Approved Acquisition

By Dimitris Ioannidis

AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to replace Discover Financial Services (DFS US) in S&P500 on 19 May following Capital One’s approved acquisition.
CRH (CRH US) and Coinbase Global (COIN US) are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of Kellogg Co (K US) and Ansys Inc (ANSS US).
Zero changes are forecasted for S&P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.

Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

By Sameer Taneja

China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.
Positive Q1 FY25 results from Southern Copper (SCCO US), First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)‘s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 27

Daily Brief United States: Intuitive Surgical, Steel Dynamics, Alcoa , Csx Corp, Danaher Corp, Dr Horton Inc, Etoro Group, Eqt Corp, General Electric , Baker Hughes and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Intuitive Surgical: Procedure Growth & Market Expansion to Strengthen Its Market Position!
Steel Dynamics: An Insight Into Its Shareholder Value & Strategic Capital Allocation!
Alcoa’s Strategic Pivot Under Fire: Will Its Bold Moves Be Enough to Weather the Tariff Storm?
CSX Corporation: An Insight Into Intermodal Market Dynamics & The Biggest Forces Driving Them Forward!
Danaher Corporation: Navigating Market Volatility to Protect Its Market Position!
D.R. Horton Battles Tariff Headwinds: Will Smart Sourcing Strategies Protect Its Profits?
EToro IPO Preview: High Crypto Exposure, CopyTrader Technology Is Not “Deep Tech”
EQT Corporation: Can Its Olympus Midstream & Strategic Integration Enhance Overall Market Competitiveness?
GE Aerospace: Building Aircraft Engine Efficiency, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!
Baker Hughes: Supply Chain Strategy & Tariff Mitigation to Safeguard Earnings Potential & Maintain Steady Operations!

Intuitive Surgical: Procedure Growth & Market Expansion to Strengthen Its Market Position!

Intuitive Surgical Inc.’s recent earnings reveal a mixed performance with both strengths and challenges.
Positively, the company reported strong operational outcomes in the first quarter of 2025.
Da Vinci procedures saw a substantial 17% growth, driven predominantly by robust performances in general surgery across the US and certain international markets, such as India and Korea.

Steel Dynamics: An Insight Into Its Shareholder Value & Strategic Capital Allocation!

Steel Dynamics, Inc. delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating the company’s operational and financial stability amidst a challenging market environment.
The company reported a net income of $217 million or $1.44 per diluted share, supported by adjusted EBITDA of $448 million.
Total revenue rose to $4.4 billion, showing a 13% increase from the previous quarter, largely due to record steel shipments.

Alcoa’s Strategic Pivot Under Fire: Will Its Bold Moves Be Enough to Weather the Tariff Storm?

Alcoa Corporation reported a strong first quarter for 2025, highlighted by improved safety performance and stable production across most operations.
The company maintained a commitment to operational excellence, focusing on safety, stability, and continuous improvement amid positive market conditions.
A key development was the improvement at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, which is now operating at 91% capacity.

CSX Corporation: An Insight Into Intermodal Market Dynamics & The Biggest Forces Driving Them Forward!

CSX Corporation’s latest earnings provided a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities facing the company in the first quarter of 2025.
CSX’s total revenue for the quarter stood at $3.4 billion, a 7% decline from the previous year.
This downturn was attributed to several factors, including lower benchmark coal prices and reduced fuel surcharge revenues.

Danaher Corporation: Navigating Market Volatility to Protect Its Market Position!

Danaher Corporation reported its first quarter of 2025 financial results, surpassing expectations in revenue, earnings, and cash flow.
The company benefited from robust performance in bioprocessing and a spike in respiratory demand at its subsidiary, Cepheid.
Utilization of the Danaher Business System (DBS) enabled the company to drive innovation, market share gains, and efficiency.

D.R. Horton Battles Tariff Headwinds: Will Smart Sourcing Strategies Protect Its Profits?

D.R. Horton, Inc. recently reported its second quarter fiscal 2025 results, highlighting both challenges and achievements within a dynamic market environment.
The company’s earnings per diluted share were $2.58, down from $3.52 a year ago, with consolidated pretax income reaching $1.1 billion on revenues of $7.7 billion.
The gross profit margin on home sales for the quarter stood at 21.8%, reflecting the company’s disciplined approach amid market fluctuations.

EToro IPO Preview: High Crypto Exposure, CopyTrader Technology Is Not “Deep Tech”

By Andrei Zakharov

EToro Group Ltd., a social investment network and trading-app provider, plans to raise up to $400M in upcoming US IPO.
Israeli social trading platform was valued at ~$10B during a planned merger with a publicly-listed SPAC in 2022. However, the SPAC deal collapsed.
EToro launched copy trading services in 2010 and made a big bet on crypto segment. Revenue from cryptoassets accounted for ~96% of total revenue and income in 2024.

EQT Corporation: Can Its Olympus Midstream & Strategic Integration Enhance Overall Market Competitiveness?

EQT Corporation delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2025, emphasizing its strategic approach to maximizing value amid price volatility.
The company reported robust production at the high end of its guidance, aided by effective well performance and minimal winter disruptions.
Tactics like increasing production during highdemand winter periods allowed EQT to benefit from favorable Appalachian pricing, significantly boosting its core differential.

GE Aerospace: Building Aircraft Engine Efficiency, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!

General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s earnings presentation for the first quarter of 2025 presents a mixed picture of financial performance, strategic advancements, and ongoing challenges.
The company delivered a robust financial outcome, with orders up 12% and revenue growing by 11%, primarily driven by strong demand in both services and equipment segments.
Profits surged by 38% to $2.1 billion, pushing the margins to 23.8%.

Baker Hughes: Supply Chain Strategy & Tariff Mitigation to Safeguard Earnings Potential & Maintain Steady Operations!