Daily Brief Australia: Capricorn Metals, Atlas Arteria, RPMGlobal Holdings Limited, TPG Telecom , Alkane Resources, Cash Converters Intl, Airtasker, Cobalt Blue Holdings, Orica Ltd and more

• There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
• Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
• The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 

• Back on the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund announced a 15% stake in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) (ATLAX), and subsequently floated the possibility of a non-binding proposal. 
• However, IFM’s request, at the time, for limited company information on ATLAX , a US/Europe toll-road play, came to nought.
• Undeterred, IFM continues to accumulate shares. Reportedly, IFM now holds ~35% after picking up 1.9% this morning.

• The RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) IE considers Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)’s scheme offer at A$5.00 to be fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range (A$4.43-A$5.12).
• The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval, and ACCC approval. Regulatory approvals are expected to be forthcoming, and the scheme vote carries a low risk.
• The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.5%/10.2%.  

• TPG Telecom (TPG AU) is looking to raise around US$359m from a primary placement.
• This is a large deal to digest, representing 111.2 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 7.8% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Since completing its merger with Mandalay Resources on 5 August, Alkane has 1) provided guidance for the combined group for FY26, 2) updated group reserves and resources and 3) released its Quarterly Activities Report for Q126. In the wake of these announcements, we forecast that the ‘new Alkane’ will produce c 158.8koz (plus c 4.3koz AuE in the form of antimony) in FY26 (cf 70.1koz in FY25) and that the merger will prove transformative to both its scale and valuation, including achieving the size required for inclusion in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the ASX 300 index (now confirmed).

• Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company that operates as both a service provider and a network owner and franchisor of second-hand retail and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
• CCV is currently executing a clearly stated growth strategy involving the reshaping of its personal finance business and growing its corporately-owned store network through acquisitions in Australia and offshore.
• This strategy has just been accelerated through the proposed $37m acquisition of a further 29 Australian stores, expanding the corporate ownership footprint to 121, or 80% of all stores across the country.

• Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
• ART has announced a $10m capital raise (at $0.30/share), with at least half earmarked for additional cash marketing spend in the US and UK.
• In parallel ART has added an additional US$5m (A$7.6m) in media capital from iHeartRadio in the US in the form of a convertible note.

• Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) is a pure-play cobalt development company focused on its flagship Broken Hill Cobalt Project (BHCP) in New South Wales, Australia, positioning it as a significant, ethical, and non-Congolese source of cobalt for the burgeoning battery market.
• The company’s strategy is centered around an integrated mine-to-refinery model, aiming to produce high-purity cobalt sulphate suitable for direct use in lithium-ion battery cathodes, thereby capturing a larger portion of the value chain. The development of the Kwinana Cobalt Refinery is a key pillar of this strategy.
• While the long-term demand outlook for cobalt is robust, driven by the electric vehicle and energy storage revolutions, COB faces significant project execution risks, commodity price volatility, and future financing hurdles to bring its large-scale, capital-intensive projects to fruition.

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• Orica posted a strong FY25 result and forecasts improving growth across all three business segments through FY26.
• -Orica’s FY25 result solid, slightly ahead of consensus -Specialty Chemicals and Digital Solutions now primary drivers -Around half of earnings stem from gold and copper sectors -Adds incremental $100m to recently completed $400m buyback program