In today’s briefing:
- Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
- [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions
Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
- Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
- From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
- Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions
- SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.
- U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.
- Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%.
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