In today’s briefing:
- ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Judo Capital to Replace CSR; Positioning Appears Light
- Bapcor (BAP AU): Bain’s Opportunistic A$5.40 Offer
- Alumina (AWC AU): Scheme Vote on 18 July
- Bapcor (BAP AU): Bain Kicks Some Tyres
- Alumina (AWU AU)’s 18th July Scheme Vote. Alcoa’s Done Deal
ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Judo Capital to Replace CSR; Positioning Appears Light
- CSR Ltd (CSR AU) is expected to stop trading on 19 June following the acquisition by Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP).
- Judo Capital (JDO AU) will be added to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 19 June to replace CSR Ltd (CSR AU).
- There has been short covering in Judo Capital over the last 3 months and there does not appear to be enough positioning for the index inclusion yet.
Bapcor (BAP AU): Bain’s Opportunistic A$5.40 Offer
- In response to media speculation, Bapcor Ltd (BAP AU) disclosed an indicative non-binding proposal from Bain Capital at A$5.40 per share, a 23.9% premium to the last close.
- The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 May.
- The offer is unattractive. Several substantial shareholders and a high retail base suggest Bain needs to bump. Bain’s offer could also draw other suitors.
Alumina (AWC AU): Scheme Vote on 18 July
- The Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) IE considers Alcoa (AA US)’s scheme offer (0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share) fair and reasonable as the terms are within its valuation range.
- The offer is conditional on FIRB and Alumina/Alcoa shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Alcoa already owns most of Alumina’s sole assets (AWAC).
- The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote risk. This is a done deal.
Bapcor (BAP AU): Bain Kicks Some Tyres
- Back in February 2022, automotive aftermarket parts provider Bapcor Ltd (BAP AU) was reportedly subject to multiple buyout proposals. BGH Capital, Quadrant, and Pacific Equity Partners were touted.
- That all came to nought. Shares drifted sideways. Then down. Shares touched a four year low late last month.
- After the incoming CEO had a change of heart, and weaker FY24E guidance, Bain has now tabled a cheeky A$5.40/share indicative Offer. That won’t fly; but value is evidently emerging.
Alumina (AWU AU)’s 18th July Scheme Vote. Alcoa’s Done Deal
- Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) and Alcoa (AA US) announced an NBIO on the 26th Feb, before entering into a Scheme on the 12th March.
- Alcoa is offering 0.02854 new shares for each Alumina share, a 13% premium to undisturbed. Key shareholders Allan Gray and CITIC are supportive.
- The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th July. Expected implementation on the 1 August. The IE says fair & reasonable.
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