In today’s briefing:
- Lynch Group (LGL AU): (Another) Clean Offer From TPG
- Lynch Group (LGL AU): TPG’s Scheme Offer
- Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Time To Get Some Exposure?
- Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Caution Is Warranted
- Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook
Lynch Group (LGL AU): (Another) Clean Offer From TPG
- Lynch Group (LGL AU), an integrated wholesale floral play, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Hasfarm Holdings and Darwin Aus Bidco – both of which are TPG entities.
- Hasfarm is offering A$2.245/share, a 28.3% premium to last close. The consideration includes a fully franked dividend of A$0.09/share. It’s April 2021 IPO price was A$3.60/share.
- The Offer has unanimous board support. 38.5% of the register is supportive. Hasfarm has also entered into a call option for 19.9% of shares out. Done deal.
Lynch Group (LGL AU): TPG’s Scheme Offer
- Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with TPG Inc (TPG US) at A$2.245, a 28.3% premium to the undisturbed price of A$1.75 (19 August).
- Lynch has several substantial shareholders, which poses a vote risk. Encouragingly, four out of eight substantial shareholders are supportive.
- The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. The scheme meeting is estimated to be in November, with payment in December.
Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Time To Get Some Exposure?
- On the 7th April, the Ki Corporation/Public Storage (PSA US) consortium announced a NBIO, by way of a Scheme, for shares not held in Abacus Storage (ASK AU) at A$1.47/security.
- ASK rejected the Offer on the 13th May. The Kirsh-led consortium bumped non-binding terms 14.7% to A$1.65/share on the 14th July, and was granted six weeks of due diligence.
- DD expires on or around the 1st September. Nathan Kirsh directly/indirectly holds a 59.47% stake in ASK. Currently trading at a 7.5% spread to the indicative terms.
Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Caution Is Warranted
- The six-week due diligence for Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US)‘s A$1.65 offer for Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) ends on 1 September.
- Some readers have asked if ASK is attractive at the current 7.5% gross spread. I think caution is warranted as there is a medium-to-high probability of no deal.
- The probability of a binding scheme is low, as NSR will block it, and the Board requires a bump to recommend it. A takeover offer is not a credible alternative.
Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook
- Timing:Fortescue (FMG AU) is scheduled to report its FY2025 full-year results on Tuesday, 26 August 2025.
- Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move and the upcoming dividend. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.
- Why Read: Get the expected move, the dividend outlook, and a clear view of the post-event volatility term structure to be ready for results day.
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