Daily Brief Australia: Mayne Pharma, Larvotto Resources, WRKR, Woodside Energy Group Ltd, Scentre Group, Fenix Resources , Ampol and more

• Pending Acquisition by Cosette Pharma: Mayne Pharma‘s future is largely defined by a pending acquisition by Cosette Pharmaceuticals, which aims to create a leading entity in the U.S. Women’s Health and Dermatology sectors. However, the deal is subject to a legal dispute initiated by Cosette, creating significant uncertainty around its completion.
• Strategic Focus and Turnaround: Following a period of financial distress and a major asset sale in 2022, management has refocused the company on its core specialty areas of Women’s Health and Dermatology. This strategy has led to significant improvements in recent financial performance, with strong revenue growth and a return to positive operating cash flow.
• Highly Competitive Landscape: The company operates in the intensely competitive generic and specialty pharmaceutical markets. While it possesses a portfolio of branded products, it faces constant pricing pressure from larger competitors and other generic manufacturers, necessitating strong commercial execution.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I flagged the possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects, as a means towards securing a supply of critical minerals. 
• Larvotto Resources (LRV AU), an explorer/evaluator/developer of gold and antimony, has now announced a NBIO from United States Antimony (UAMY US) (USAC) @ A$1.40/share, a 87.67% premium to undisturbed.
• USAC has also declared a 10% holding.  An independent board committee is assessing the approach. Due diligence has not yet been granted. That should be forthcoming.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: JST Group (6687 HK) and FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPOs; Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) H Share listing.
• Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU),Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Genting Malaysia (GENM MK). 

• Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
• We have taken the opportunity to incorporate the recent $15m capital raise into our numbers and fine tune client migration timing, which has resulted in reductions to our FY26 estimates, but an increase to our FY27 revenue forecasts as AustralianSuper (set to migrate between February and June 2026) is larger than our previous user assumptions.
• We also take a more aggressive view on near-term cost growth relative to revenue.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently elevenpair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Context: The Scentre Group (SCG AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Scentre Group (SCG AU) and short Stockland (SGP AU) targets a 3% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported a substantial increase in shipments, up 155%YoY/17%QoQ, to 885k tons, guiding a further ramp beyond 1 million tons in the December quarter. 
• The substantial numbers were followed by yet another share purchase by Chairman Jon Welborn, taking his holding in the company to ~3%. 
• Strong operating cashflows of over 43.9 million AUD for the quarter (175 million AUD annualized on a 350 million AUD market cap) could ramp further as Beebyn-W11 shipments increase.

• Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.
• Miss risk: F&I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.
• Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.