In today’s briefing:
- Merger Arb Mondays (11 Aug) – Mayne, PointsBet, Infomedia, Ashimori, Toyo Const, HKBN, Joy City
- Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)
- SSI Weekly Newsletter: Key Updates on Mergers, Legal Disputes, Asset Sales, and Shareholder Votes
- Champion Iron (CIA AU) Vs. Stanmore (SMR AU): Coal–Steel Mean Reversion Targeting 12%
- Horizon Minerals Ltd – Digging and dealing
- Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton
Merger Arb Mondays (11 Aug) – Mayne, PointsBet, Infomedia, Ashimori, Toyo Const, HKBN, Joy City
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Ci Medical (3540 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP).
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlight: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
SSI Weekly Newsletter: Key Updates on Mergers, Legal Disputes, Asset Sales, and Shareholder Votes
- Mayne Pharma faces legal challenges with Cosette over merger termination, maintaining no breach occurred; hearing set for September 9.
- OCI N.V. plans $700m shareholder return via capital repayment and extraordinary dividend, with ex-dividend date on August 18.
- Banxa’s acquisition vote set for August 28, with regulatory approvals pending; spread narrows from 38% to 25%.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) Vs. Stanmore (SMR AU): Coal–Steel Mean Reversion Targeting 12%
- Context: The Champion Iron (CIA AU) vs. Stanmore Resources (SMR AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: The trade targets ~12% return to the one-standard-deviation line.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Horizon Minerals Ltd – Digging and dealing
- Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
- HRZ has released its June 2025 quarterly report which provides a progress update on mining, exploration and development activities.
- Revenue of $33.0m was generated from gold sales at Boorara with another $1.52m received as an early release from the Phillips Find JV.
Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton
- Following our bullish call on iron ore, Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels, we are now less excited on iron ore and see it drift lower.
- We expected iron ore to test the lower-end of the long-term band of 95-110 USD/ton (vs current spot of 102 USD/ton).
- While iron ore inventories/stocks at ports drift lower, mill margins have capped out and are not rising any further, leading us to call for a short-term decline in ore prices.
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