In today’s briefing:
- Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?
- Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
- Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal
- Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Nov)
- Iron Ore At 104 USD/Ton: Where To Now With Simandou Online? Still Like Fenix, Others Fairly Valued
- Technology One Ltd – Outlook Intact Post Tech1’s FY25 Punishment
Monash IVF (MVF AU): Genesis Capital to Launch a Takeover Proposal?
- The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
- On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
- It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light.
Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
- Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
- That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
- Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.
Webjet Group (WJL AU): BGH Capital Counters Helloworld with a Competing Proposal
- On 21 November, Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) offer.
- BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.
- Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids.
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Nov)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
Iron Ore At 104 USD/Ton: Where To Now With Simandou Online? Still Like Fenix, Others Fairly Valued
- Iron ore prices have remained rock-solid at 104 USD/ton, but the fundamentals are on slightly shaky ground as Rio Tinto (RIO US) commenced shipments from its Simandou project.
- Chinese steel production and apparent demand in October tracked an extremely weak 12%/12.5% YoY, with annualized production rates now 864 million tons, and lending (TSF) was lacklustre at -42% YoY.
- We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) despite the negative sentiment, due to its production growth profile from 4 million to 10 million tons over the next 3 years.
Technology One Ltd – Outlook Intact Post Tech1’s FY25 Punishment
- Shares in TechnologyOne reacted negatively on the release of a record FY25 performance, as not all metrics met elevated expectations as as the global technology sector is de-rated.
- -TechnologyOne delivers record FY25 metrics -Profit exceeds guidance, strong UK growth -Market concerns on softer than expected ARR and NRR -Global de-rating for the sector equally impacts on updated valuations/price targets
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
