Daily Brief Australia: PointsBet Holdings , Iron Ore, Barton Gold Holdings and more

• In Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable, I surmised, on balance, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) would afford Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) due diligence. That is now confirmed.
• PointsBet initial focus will be on Betr’s scrip as it comprises 43% of the funding mix.
• Separately, Mixi Inc (2121 JP)‘s Scheme Booklet was dispatched on the 8th May, with a shareholder vote on the 12th June. Mixi has matching rights under its SID.

• Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners RIO AU, BHP AU, and FMG AU  were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.
• Vale (VALE US) shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact. 
• Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton. 

As promised, on 5 May, Barton announced the results of its optimised scoping study on its Tunkillia project in South Australia. Relative to its initial scoping study (July 2024), capex was down 8.0%, while unit oxide and sulphide processing costs were 24.4% and 18.0% lower, respectively, as more realistic ore hardnesses were considered for grinding purposes. The life of the operation has been extended from 7.7 to 10 years, with the result that the amount of payable gold produced has increased by 13.1%. In conjunction with a 42.9% increase in the gold price to A$5,000/oz (c US$3,333/oz), these changes (among others) resulted in an increase in pre-tax project NPV7.5 of 176.6% to A$1,416m and an 33.2 percentage point increase in the internal rate of return to 73.2% (A$781m and 48.3% at A$4,000/oz Au, respectively). Using the same inputs, our financial model generates an NPV7.5 within 6% of Barton’s, from which we estimate a post-tax project NPV7.5 of A$895.9m, or A$4.09/share.