Daily Brief China: China Gold International Resources, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., BYD, HSBC Holdings, Guangzhou Automobile Group, TOP TOY International Group, Fibocom Wireless , Singamas Container Holdings, Fuyao Glass Industry Group and more

• Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
• The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.
• China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.

• Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s HK$9.25 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 10 November. 
• I previously argued that the vote carries risk due to a solid interim, the imminent surgical robot growth story, unfavourable AGM voting patterns, and emerging retail opposition.
• However, the risk has been lowered due to Bin Yuan and LYFE no longer being shareholders, along with the peer derating. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 3.7%/22.0%.

• BYD’s monthly sales volume decreased YoY for the first time in September.
• We expect the revenue growth rate will slow down to 16%, but op margin will rise in 2026.
• We believe the stock price is overvalued, whether measured by time-series or cross-sectional methods.

• The decision to invest a large sum of money to increase Hong Kong and Mainland China banking exposure, seems oddly timed
• There is no exceptional discount to drive this decision, and there is unlikely to be any major resumption former times
• Granular data on credit metrics from HSB shows marked weakness, deterioration, and with privatization, we may only see this data one more time.

• “Beautiful Skew” showed up again across the long holiday. Hs on average outperformed As by 1.57% over the 29-30 Sep and 9-10 Oct period.
• Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share OUTperform its A by 2.52% and it outright rose just over 1%. Meh.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• Top Toy International is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the next several months. 
• Top Toy was last valued at US$1.3 billion in July 2025 when it received a US$59.4 million Series A financing (of which Temasek contributed US$40 million for a 3.2% stake).
• Top Toy is trading at P/E of 32x (2024 net profit) (valuation of US$1.3 billion) versus Pop Mart (P/E of 103x based on its 2024 net profit). 

• Fibocom Wireless (300638 CH) a wireless communication modules provider, aims to raise up to US$400m in its H-share listing.
• Fibocom was founded in Nov 1999, and is a leading wireless communication module provider. The firm’s module products include i) data transmission modules, ii) smart modules, and iii) AI modules.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Singamas is a major global container manufacturer facing a cyclical industry downturn, characterized by overcapacity and pressure on container prices.
• Despite challenging market conditions, the company maintains a strong balance sheet, an asset-light model, and is diversifying into higher-margin specialized containers, such as Energy Storage Systems (ESS), and growing its leasing business to provide more stable revenue streams.
• The company offers a compelling dividend yield, supported by a stated policy of returning value to shareholders, but faces significant risks from global trade tensions, economic slowdowns, and intense competition.

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• As discussed in our previous BYD insight on October 3, the stock is oversold and could start a rally soon.
• BYD (1211 HK) was heavily overbought at its peak in mid-2025, then declined >30% in a few months. It’s oversold.
• However at the moment our model has identified the current short-term trend pattern as bearish: a 1-2 weeks rally can happen, but then the stock will pullback again. Caution advised.

• Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$21bn a day in the four days spanning the long holiday break. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell.
• The recommended name was short Great Wall Motor (2333 HK). The stock was +1% over two weeks, but underperformed its H by 0.52%. Great Wall is down 4+% today.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.