In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up
- Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Final Expectations; New Pair Trades
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)
- China Mobile (941 HK) Results on 7 Aug: Low Volatility History Faces Test
- SICC A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
- Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – The Business Model, the Concerns, the Valuation Outlook
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors
A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Aug 2025): HUGE SOUTHBOUND Buying Helps Beautiful Skew but Premia Up
- AH premia up, erasing the previous week’s gains for Hs. “Beautiful Skew” continues in negative overall performance.
- Last week I said “This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable.” This week it unwound some.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50/100 Sep25: Final Expectations; New Pair Trades
- STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
- In this insight, we have presented our final predictions for the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices for the September 2025 index rebal event.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Aug 2025); YUGE Net Buying on Weakness (FINANCIALS & HEALTHCARE)
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Second best in months. Net buying strong at just over +US$1.5bn a day.
- FINANCIALS and HEALTHCARE and now INFO TECH stand out as net buys as a % of volume. TELECOMS a net sell. Again.
- Hong Kong sharply underperformed mainland shares last week, SOUTHBOUND bought big, and despite higher AH Premia, Beautiful Skew continued.
China Mobile (941 HK) Results on 7 Aug: Low Volatility History Faces Test
- China Mobile (941 HK) / China Mobile (600941 CH) will release 2024 interim results on Thursday, 7 August 2025. The stock is a key constituent of the HSI and HSCEI.
- Highlights: Past earnings moves have been modest, but the options skew hints at potential for surprises. Dividend decision also due.
- Why Read: Helps time exposure and evaluate short-term risks ahead of results and dividend announcement for cash investors and option traders.
SICC A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium
- SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$250m in its H-share listing.
- In terms of market share, as per Frost & Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
- In this note, we look at the PHIP updates and talk about the likely A/H premium.
Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – The Business Model, the Concerns, the Valuation Outlook
- The value of Laopu lies in its innovation in business model,successfully breaking away from the low-profit attribute of the industry by following the pricing and operation methods of luxury goods.
- However, Laopu cannot enjoy the valuation system of luxury brands because it cannot “escape” gold price cycle.So, when valuation of Laopu approaches that of luxury brands, it has overvaluation risks.
- Current valuation has priced in overseas expansion, which however isn’t a done deal.During upward cycle of gold prices,it’s easy to optimistically linearly extrapolate Laopu’s growth potential.Valuation faces downward revision risk
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Melco Resorts, Tata Motors, UPL Limited, Nissan Motor
- UST yields plunged on Friday, led by the front end, as the market repriced expectations for Fed easing following a weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report. As of Friday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 61 bps of rate cuts over the next three meetings in 2025 (vs. 33 bps as of Thursday). The UST curve bull steepened aggressively, with the yield on the 2Y UST declining 28 bps to 3.68%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 16 bps to 4.22%.
- Equities retreated owing to the weak jobs numbers, continued tariff concerns, as well as after US President Donald Trump said the US was moving two nuclear submarines in response to “provocative” statements by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 6,238, while the Nasdaq was down 2.2% at 20,650.
HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors
- The SEHk recently issued an update in response to its consultation paper in December 2025, with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
- In this note, we summarize the conclusion by HKEx and the rules to be implemented.
- We are of the view that overall, the changes will benefit ECM investors with greater certainty in allocations.
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