In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 June 2025): Skew Move Continues as SB Buys But AH Premia Rise
- Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategy Insights from Options Trading
- Pre-IPO FWD Group Holdings (PHIP Updates) – The Pain Points and the Outlook
- Cloudbreak (拨康视云) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates
- Giant Biogene (2367 HK): Beaten Down Beauty. Valuation Upside After 40% Downslide
- Haier Smart Home: Is Casarte’s 42% Boom Just the Beginning of a Product Power Play?
- Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates – Losses Continue to Narrow but Growth Decelerating
- Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – June 2025
A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 June 2025): Skew Move Continues as SB Buys But AH Premia Rise
- AH premia bounce back last week but the “skew” of wide premia converging and narrow premia moving wider continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
- The previous week smelled like an RMB counter trade was being set up, “confirmed” by a Caixin article the weekend. The HKEX “confirmation” this past week, well, maybe wasn’t one.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.
Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategy Insights from Options Trading
- Context: Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Highlights: With 20% of all strategies traded being Diagonal or Calendar Spreads, this remains a popular strategy. Directional positioning does not exhibit a bullish or bearish bias.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
Pre-IPO FWD Group Holdings (PHIP Updates) – The Pain Points and the Outlook
- Turning losses around in 2024 relied on capital market recovery and adjustment of accounting standards. If investment returns fluctuate or premium growth slows down, profits may again come under pressure.
- The excessive goodwill of insurance companies is essentially “overdrawing the current valuation with future expectations”.Whether goodwill can be transformed into actual synergy effects is the key to determining long-term value.
- The market usually gives lower valuation to companies with high goodwill. FWD relies on debt to provide funding for working capital/acquisition financing. Valuation of FWD should be lower than peers.
Cloudbreak (拨康视云) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates
- Cloudbreak re-filed for a Hong Kong listing to raise at least USD 100 million.
- In this note, we look at updates to the prospectus. We noted delays in its products and downward revisions of prospects.
- We checked peer performance and have a negative readthrough for the company.
Giant Biogene (2367 HK): Beaten Down Beauty. Valuation Upside After 40% Downslide
- Giant Biogene (2367 HK) ‘s stock is down 40% from its mid-May high triggered by public spat with rival Bloomage Biotechnology over collagen content labelling in its skincare line.
- Biogene’s use of recombinant collagen is rapidly emerging as the new gold standard in anti-aging skincare, giving it a clear edge over traditional ingredient players like Bloomage.
- Giant Biogene now trades at a steep discount to peers in the functional beauty space; current valuations offer meaningful downside protection, and strong upside potential as sentiment stabilizes.
Haier Smart Home: Is Casarte’s 42% Boom Just the Beginning of a Product Power Play?
- Haier Smart Home Co., Ltd. recently released its third-quarter financial results, providing insights into its performance and strategic developments.
- During the initial three quarters, the company reported sales revenue of RMB 148.9 billion, representing a 7.7% growth.
- The net profit was RMB 717 million, which marks a 26.2% increase year over year.
Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates – Losses Continue to Narrow but Growth Decelerating
- Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is the leader in the global autonomous mobile robots (AMR) market.
- In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance.
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – June 2025
- We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
- Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)
- Our call on Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) is going pear-shaped as the weak HK demand environment catalyzed a profit-warning, which we will elaborate on the 27th when it reports.
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