In today’s briefing:
- Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Slower Revenue Growth and Margin Deterioration Are Worrisome
- [Miniso Group (MNSO US, SELL, TP US$16) TP Change]: C4Q24 Review: Downside Not yet Fully Priced In
- Horizon Robotics (9660.HK): The Stock Probably Peaked at HK$10.00+ As IPO Lock-Up Expires in April
- Chinese EV Maker Neta on Brink of Collapse as $600 million Funding Round Falls Through
- [Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$70) TP Change]: C4Q24 Review: Temporary Setback a Chance to Buy
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK): Slower Revenue Growth and Margin Deterioration Are Worrisome
- Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK) reported revenue growth of 9% YoY to RMB4,446 million, mainly driven by a 11% YoY growth in hospital business.
- Hygeia’s gross profit margin contracted 170bps YoY to 29.9%. Net profit decreased 13% on higher finance cost despite of income tax expenses being lower.
- Accelerated organic growth and strengthening of margins are crucial to boost valuation.
[Miniso Group (MNSO US, SELL, TP US$16) TP Change]: C4Q24 Review: Downside Not yet Fully Priced In
- MNSO reported C4Q24 rev.1.6%/2.0%, and non-GAAP EBIT 3.4%/2.0% below our est./cons.. What concerns us more is the quality of the growth;
- In our view, MNSO’s slow same-store-sales-growth (SSSG), overseas investment, and Yonghui’s integration haven’t fully reflected in the price;
- We cut the TP to US$16 and maintain the SELL rating to reflect slower profit growth. The stock trades at 14x 25E P/E vs. a 12% 3 Yr. NI CAGR
Horizon Robotics (9660.HK): The Stock Probably Peaked at HK$10.00+ As IPO Lock-Up Expires in April
- Horizon Robotics, a leading provider of integrated computing solutions for ADAS and AD for consumer vehicles, went public in October of 2024 in Hong Kong.
- The Chinese technology company priced its IPO at HK$3.99 per share and raised ~HK$5.4B or $696M. The offering was multiple times oversubscribed.
- The company’s market cap peaked at ~$18B in February and exceeded valuation of Mobileye Global. I expect a near-term selling pressure as IPO lock-up expires in April.
Chinese EV Maker Neta on Brink of Collapse as $600 million Funding Round Falls Through
- Neta Auto, the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) startup, is teetering on the brink of collapse after a funding crisis brought production to a standstill and triggered mass layoffs, leaving its parent company scrambling for a financial lifeline amid rising debt.
- Hozon New Energy Automobile Co. Ltd., which produces EVs under the Neta brand, revealed in February that its much-anticipated Series E funding round had unraveled.
- Originally scheduled to close by Feb. 28 with a planned injection of 4 billion to 4.5 billion yuan ($550 million to $620 million), the deal never materialized.
[Kuaishou (1024 HK, BUY, TP HK$70) TP Change]: C4Q24 Review: Temporary Setback a Chance to Buy
- Kuaishou reported C4Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income slightly below our estimates and consensus. Margin outperformed.
- Advertising and e-commerce revenue growth temporarily slowed from due to Kuaishou’s offering traffic subsidies to the internal merchants, reducing incentive to advertise, but will translate to revenues later;
- We cut TP from HK$72 to HK$70 to reflect lowered margin outlook due to AI-related capex and R&D expenses
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In the US, the third estimate of Q4/24 annualised US GDP inched up to 2.4% q-o-q (from 2.3% in the second estimate), mainly reflecting a downward revision to imports.
- Separately, February pending home sales rose 2.0% m-o-m (1.0% e / -4.6% p), rebounding slightly from a record low but remaining well below historical levels.
- The UST curve twisted steeper yesterday, with long-end yields rising to a one-month-high amid concerns over the impact of tariffs on US growth and inflation.
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