Daily Brief China: InSilico Medicine Cayman TopCo, Iron Ore, New World Development, Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech, Uni President China, Zhong Ao Home, Health And Happiness (H&H), China Vanke and more

• InSilico Medicine, an AI-driven drug discovery and development, launched its IPO to raise at least USD 293 million via a Hong Kong listing.
• In this note, we look at the deal terms and provide a valuation for the company.
• We think the valuation is anchored by its innovative assets while the AI asset value provides upside.

• Iron ore’s resilience looks fragile, supported by short-term supply disruptions, while weakening steel demand and looming Simandou volumes erode fundamentals.
• Managed money participants trimmed their net long exposure, signalling profit-taking aligned with price action rather than a broader shift in market conviction.
• The DCE-SGX spread lost momentum after rejecting the upper Bollinger band, breaking below key MAs and opening room for consolidation or further downside.

• New World Development (NWD) is a high-leverage property developer currently trading at a significant discount to its book value, positioning it as a high-risk, high-reward play on the Hong Kong property market and future interest rate cuts.
• The company has experienced severe financial distress, reporting substantial net losses and negative cash flows over the past two years, leading to a sharp dividend cut and a deeply negative growth track record across all key metrics.
• Management is actively pursuing a deleveraging strategy through asset disposals and debt management, such as the recent exchange offer for its perpetual securities. The success of these initiatives is critical to navigating the challenging market and restoring investor confidence.

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• Shanghai Forest Cabin launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$1086.2M. The company plans to sell 13.97M shares at HK$77.77 per share.
• Shanghai Forest Cabin (SFC) are a premium domestic skincare brand in China with a focus on the anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market, under their flagship brand Forest Cabin.
• The company’s business model is robust. We think Shanghai Forest Cabin issue is attractively priced and investors can surely look to invest in this growth story.

• Uni President China (220 HK) appeals to value investors with its stable long-term growth, attractive dividends, and diversified consumer staples portfolio, despite severe near-term sector competition.
• The intense competition plaguing China’s food delivery platforms and F&B sector have impacted investor sentiment and valuations. Expect stock rebound as the dust settles.
• Uni-President’s brand loyalty and innovation capabilities should help sustain revenue and profit growth, enabling the company to weather near-term pricing and margin pressures.

• Zhong Ao Home is a small, independent property management company in China facing a challenging market, characterized by stagnant revenue and declining profitability over the past several years.
• The company’s stock appears undervalued on traditional metrics (P/E, P/B) and offers a high dividend yield, which may attract value and income-oriented investors.
• Significant headwinds persist, including intense competition within a fragmented industry and a reliance on the troubled Chinese real estate sector, creating high uncertainty for future growth.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Here we introduce Modtris as a drastic approach to credit analysis.
• Modrist uses historical financial data to compute simultation of multi-dimentional dynamics.
• Fair value of H&H, according to Modtris, is quite close to the current price. We see Modtrist as an alternative to arrive at bond fair value without human bias.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, China Vanke
• Fitch has downgraded the issuer default rating on China Vanke, as well as the senior unsecured notes rating on Vanke HK, to C from CCC-/CC.
• The downgrade follows Vanke’s entry into a five-day grace period for a CNY 2 bn onshore bond that matured on 15 December 2025, which indicated heightened default risk