In today’s briefing:
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light
- CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears
- CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case
- Ant Group Considering on Listing Overseas Unit Ant International in Hong Kong
- Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?
- Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) Trading – Tepid Demand, No Over-Allotment
- Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine H Share Listing (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (07-May-2025): Mt. Maunganui Cold Storage for Sale
- CATL: Key Highlights in 1Q 2025 and PHIP Updates on Hong Kong Listing
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light
- Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed Laopu Gold (6181 HK)‘s chances of global index inclusion in May.
- The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year.
CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears
- Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for CATL H-shares with a discount of up to 10% to CATL (300750 CH) and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.
- The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.
- Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.
CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, has filed its PHIP for an H-Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
- I previously discussed the H Share listing in CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case and CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views.
- In this note, I examine the latest results and developments outlined in the PHIP. Overall, the PHIP reinforces my positive view.
Ant Group Considering on Listing Overseas Unit Ant International in Hong Kong
- Ant Group is considering on listing its overseas unit Ant International in Hong Kong. Ant International contributes approximately 20% to Ant Group’s total revenue.
- Ant International operates four core business lines: Alipay+ (cross-border payment platform), Antom (global merchant acquiring network), WorldFirst (remittance service), and Bettr (digital payment solution).
- Given the growing political to delist Chinese stocks from the US exchanges, there could be a greater political pressure on the Chinese government to approve Chinese IPOs in Hong Kong.
Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?
- Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)‘s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics.
- At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny’s multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability.
- Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.
Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) Trading – Tepid Demand, No Over-Allotment
- Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH) (HDNET) raised around US$180m via its A/H listing.
- HDNET is a specialized manufacturer of PV cells which are used in making PV modules.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics, in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine H Share Listing (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Hengrui’s high growth in 2024/25Q1 mainly relies on the realization of BD cooperation. The short-term performance improvement cannot conceal the long-term pressure. The turning point of endogenous growth hasn’t arrived.
- Hengrui would continue to be affected by VBP. The generic drug business is “outdated”, whose valuation contribution is negligible. The BD model will lead to significant fluctuations in performance.
- Our forecast is net profit YoY growth in 2025-2027 would fall back to 15-20%. Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene and Hansoh in Hong Kong stock market.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Fosun International, Pakuwon Jati, Adani Green Energy, ReNew Energy
- The US and China are set to commence trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will travel to Switzerland later this week to meet with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter, and also meet Chinese officials to discuss economic and trade matters, according to separate announcements by the Treasury Department and Office of the Trade Representative.
- Meanwhile, Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland during May 9-12th, according to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (07-May-2025): Mt. Maunganui Cold Storage for Sale
- Frasers REIT plans to sell a Melbourne office tower for $129M to an Australian tycoon, indicating a significant transaction in the real estate market.
- Industry leaders from Hilton, KKR, CREAL, and Pegasus are convening in Singapore to discuss strategies for the hospitality sector at a forum.
- Norges has appointed Alexander Knapp as the new Global Real Estate Head and Jason Leong as the new leader of Asia Fund following van den Berg’s departure.
CATL: Key Highlights in 1Q 2025 and PHIP Updates on Hong Kong Listing
- CATL reported a 6.2% YoY increase in revenue in 1Q 2025. EV battery sales rose 14.0% YoY driven by healthy demand offset by lower ESS battery sales.
- CATL provided discussions about ongoing tariff disputes. It mentioned that the overall impact and outcome remain uncertain. The U.S. market accounts for about 7% of CATL’s total EV battery business.
- We maintain a Positive View of CATL. Our base case valuation of CATL is implied market cap of 1.3 trillion CNY which is 32% higher than current market cap.
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