In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows
- China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?
- Pop Mart (9992 HK): On IP Choice, But Not Blind Boxes, Waiting for Lower Price
- Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market
- Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Cornerstone Investors Have Agreed To Take ~52% of the Offer Shares
- Dongfeng Motor(489HK)-Abandoned Restructuring,Cash > MCap : Can It Be A Dark Horse In Coming Future?
- Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: US$5bn+ One Way Flows; Emphasis Should Be on NET Flows
- CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
- Currently, we see 9 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 41 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.
China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?
- China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK), a processor and trader of rare earth oxides/metals, is suspended for reasons unknown.
- But not before gaining 79% month to date. On huge volume. And that gain is after giving back 23% from a recent high close.
- As discussed in Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths; although there has been some partial easing.
Pop Mart (9992 HK): On IP Choice, But Not Blind Boxes, Waiting for Lower Price
- We believe Pop Mart’s advantage is its ability of choosing available IPs.
- We expect Pop Mart’s revenue will grow by 69% in 2025.
- However, the stock is overvalued by cross-sectional comparison and fairly valued by time-series comparison.
Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market
- Chinese copper inventories have dropped to 15-year seasonal lows, with SHFE stockpiles plunging 60% in April — the sharpest decline on record.
- This signals intense physical market tightness, driven by strong demand and smelter cutbacks.
- The trend is reinforcing bullish sentiment, tightening global balances, and spurring strategic moves across the copper supply chain.
Saint Bella IPO (2508.HK): Cornerstone Investors Have Agreed To Take ~52% of the Offer Shares
- Saint Bella, a luxury maternity and baby care brand, has announced the fixed offer price of HK$6.58 per share for its IPO in Hong Kong.
- The company is expected to IPO next week and initial fixed offer price implies a market cap of ~HK$3.9B. Saint Bella is set to start trading on June 26, 2025.
- Cornerstone investors have agreed to invest ~$42M in this offering. China Asset Management, JKKB and SS Morgan are among the cornerstone investors.
Dongfeng Motor(489HK)-Abandoned Restructuring,Cash > MCap : Can It Be A Dark Horse In Coming Future?
- Abandoned Restructuring: Recently Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) confirmed that there is no restructuring activity involving its controlling shareholder.This raises hope that it is looking to turnaround its operations by itself.
- New Energy Vehicle (NEV) transformation gaining momentum: NEV sales grew 34.4% YTD May 2025; Dongfeng leads with proprietary EV platforms, smart tech integration, and Huawei-backed high-end launches.
- Trades at just 0.32x P/B, Cash at USD 14bn is much higher than market cap of USD 4bn. significantly undervalued versus peers, despite strong cash reserves,rising exports, and NEV scaling.
Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity
- Oil has surged on geopolitical headlines, with a sharp increase in both price and implied volatility.
- Implied vols in Hong Kong-listed oil names have lagged sharply behind the move in Oil.
- The relative dislocation in volatility opens the door to tactical pair trade and hedging ideas.
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