In today’s briefing:
- Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So
- Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
- Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: Announcement Soon; MANY DELs Likely!
- Tencent (700 HK): Positioning After 41% YTD Rally with Collar Strategies
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Few Changes to Expectations
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Index Change Possible; ~US$180mn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep25: Announcement This Week; 3 Changes Likely
- Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: GEELY up 15% Vs Peers; ~US$2.2bn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- Pop Mart (9992 HK) – Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast
Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So
- Nearly seven months after receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer had been entered into.
- The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, made an Offer of US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
- Now Hillhouse has thrown its hat into the ring with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. Smart Share’s special committee of independent directors should engage.
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
- Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
- We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
- CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: Announcement Soon; MANY DELs Likely!
- The Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO) represents the largest biotech companies listed in Hong Kong (HKEX) from September 2025.
- We expect 20 index constituents to face deletion in September 2025 rebal due to a recent change in index selection methodology.
- The index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.
Tencent (700 HK): Positioning After 41% YTD Rally with Collar Strategies
- Context:Tencent (700 HK) has performed strongly this year, gaining 41% YTD, including 5.5% last week around its earnings release.
- Volatility Skew: A rare setup shows calls trading rich versus puts, creating favorable conditions for protective collar strategies.
- Actionable Trade Ideas: Three variations of a protective collar — with charts, pricing, and Greeks — illustrate how to position in the current market.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Few Changes to Expectations
- CSI All Share Semiconductors Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
- We expect up to five ADDs and one DEL for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Index Change Possible; ~US$180mn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2025 index rebal event will be publicly announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.
- We continue to expect Pop Mart (9992 HK) to be an ADD and J&T Global Express (1519 HK) to be a DEL in HSCEI in September 2025.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep25: Announcement This Week; 3 Changes Likely
- The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
- We see three ADDs and three DELs and one float percentage revision which could collectively trigger roughly US$428mn in one-way index flows in September 2025.
- The index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.
Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After
- Context:Tencent (700 HK) reported 2Q25 results last week, beating expectations and fueling a 5.5% move in the stock.
- Market Reaction: Shares rallied while front-end options saw a pronounced volatility crush, rotating the term structure back into contango.
- Why Read: This note unpacks Tencent’s price action and the evolving volatility setup.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: GEELY up 15% Vs Peers; ~US$2.2bn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2025 index rebal event will be announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.
- We continue to expect one low-conviction index change for September 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of ~US$2.2bn one-way.
Pop Mart (9992 HK) – Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast
- In bleak consumption environment, Pop Mart is definitely an “outsider”.Explanations such as “lipstick effect” are more like a self-consistent logic, which may have some sense, but doesn’t constitute core contradiction.
- To truly understand the investment value of Pop Mart, it’s necessary to assess future growth potential.We think overseas revenue could reach RMB16-17 billion in 2025 and RMB42 billion in 2026.
- Net profit CAGR in 2024-2026 could be about 79.5%. Pop Mart would still maintain high growth in short-term. But after 2026, there are uncertainties of channel policies and IP-driven factors.
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