In today’s briefing:
- CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
- Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025): AH Premia Fall in Low Volume
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold
- HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold
- [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: Price Bearishness to Persist
- Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions
- HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Key Strike Rejected, Volatility Recalibrates
CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
- The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
- We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
- There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.
Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Domain Holdings.
- Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP), Aeon Delight (9787 JP), Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP).
A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Apr 2025): AH Premia Fall in Low Volume
- AH Premia fall small. Spread curve torsion is mild but present, with narrow AH Premia widening, and wide premia narrowing.
- For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. I think the trend is still to widening but torsion.
- The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from wider spreads coming in, narrow spreads widening, and liquidity dropping.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 18 Apr 2025); Buying of Internet, SOEs, and ETFs Previously Sold
- Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.
- Gross and net flows this week subsided quite substantially compared to previous weeks.
- We are in a post-tariff breather as the US says the ball is in China’s court and China looks like it will wait things out. Port volumes are telling.
HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold
- A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
- The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.
- Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: Price Bearishness to Persist
- Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.
- Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.
- Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).
Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions
- FY24 revenue growth of 19% solid, but mostly driven by one operating segment
- Gross margin in FY24 fell on mix, but platform monetization down, too
- Sharp growth in FY24 working capital requires investors’ close attention
HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Key Strike Rejected, Volatility Recalibrates
- A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
- Volatility pulled back but may have simply entered a holding pattern—parallels to stimulus induced rise and fall are explored.
- Volumes dropped sharply from last week’s Call induced surge, as the market approached—but failed to clear—a key strike.
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