Daily Brief China: Tencent, Yum China Holdings , Innovent Biologics Inc, ANE Cayman Inc, Xiaomi, Wharf Real Estate Investment C, China Merchants Bank H, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Meitu Inc and more

• HK$100bn a day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity with US$600mm+ of net buying on average. Net flows continue to be impressive. SOEs/Energy/Financials dominate.
• Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could up the pace of things.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics and Yum China replace ENN Energy, Haidilao International and New Oriental Education in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. All changes are in line.
• Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.3bn (US$811m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 December.
• Innovent Biologics is also an add to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). The passive buying will absorb some stock from the recent placement in China Hongqiao. 

• Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.
• Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Star Micronics (7718 JP). 

• Context: Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
• Highlights: 55% of strategies exhibit a bullish bias, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.
• Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

• We think Wharf REIC, which owns luxury malls in Hong Kong, is undergoing a structural de-rating, on the back of macro headwinds, currency impact and company fundamentals
• Southbound consumption into Hong Kong has weakened deeply, catalyzed by a punitive USD-pegged Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and a collapsing Japanese Yen (JPY)
• In latest interim results, Wharf REIC reported HK$5.1 billion revaluation deficit and a HK$2.4 billion net loss, representing negative rental reversions crystallizing into lower asset values.

• Hs underperformed As on average by 1.88% within the liquid AH pair universe. Defensive Hs outperform As. Others not.
• Nine new recos last week. The one labelled saw H underperform A by 2%. Ouch. 15+ new trades this week.
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

• A tactical snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
• Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.
• We find no overbought stocks or indices in Asia at present. US equities are aligned with this view, this is a global market pullback, probably about to end.

• Transition to AI-Driven Subscriptions Fueling Growth: Meitu is successfully transitioning its business model from advertising to a high-margin, AI-driven subscription service for its photo, video, and design products. This strategic shift is the primary driver behind significant revenue and profit growth, with paying subscribers reaching 15.4 million.
• Strategic Divestment from Cryptocurrency: The company has fully divested its cryptocurrency holdings, realizing a substantial net gain of nearly US$80 million. This move de-risks the balance sheet from the volatility of digital assets and allows management to refocus capital and attention on its core AI imaging business.
• Expanding Global Footprint and Enterprise Solutions: Meitu is aggressively expanding its international user base, which now accounts for 35% of total Monthly Active Users (MAUs). Concurrently, it is leveraging its core AI technology to launch productivity-focused tools for e-commerce and advertising, opening new avenues for enterprise revenue.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• Context: Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
• Highlights: Market sentiment is evenly balanced between bullish and bearish strategies, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.
• Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,