In today’s briefing:
- Zijin Mining – Structural Re-Rate Underway; Q3 Results Validate Copper–Gold Flywheel + Spin Unlock
- Merger Arb Mondays (20 Oct) – ENN Energy, Joy City, Kangji, Mandarin, Soft99, Mandom, Makino
- Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion
- Seres Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)
- QFIN US – Follow-Up: Asset-Quality Pressure Undermines Early Bull Case; Recovery Shifts to 2026e
- Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): New Licensing Agreement Asserts R&D Prowess and Pipeline Strength
- Pre-IPO BlissBio – The Pipeline Has Not yet Been Verified as No Deal Has Been Reached with MNCs
Zijin Mining – Structural Re-Rate Underway; Q3 Results Validate Copper–Gold Flywheel + Spin Unlock
- Earnings momentum accelerating driven by gold volume +20% and mine margin expansion to 60.6%, supported by disciplined cost control and strong operating cash flow.
- Copper–gold dual exposure provides structural upside with spot torque to Cu ~US$10,800/t and Au ~US$4,200/oz, reinforcing earnings visibility into FY26–27.
- Zijin Gold spin-off unlocks value via clean asset separation, improved capital efficiency, and SOTP rerating potential to HK$41–42/sh under spot scenario.
Merger Arb Mondays (20 Oct) – ENN Energy, Joy City, Kangji, Mandarin, Soft99, Mandom, Makino
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
Sany Heavy (6031 HK) IPO: Big Cornerstone Allocation to Delay Global Index Inclusion
- Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) could raise up to HK$16.35bn (US$2.1bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
- There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
- Sany Heavy (6031 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 24 November following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.
Seres Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- Seres Group (601127 CH), a Chinese NEV manufacturer, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$1.5 billion.
- The A Shares were listed on 15 June 2016. In May 2021 and June 2022, Seres conducted private placements to raise RMB2,567.9 million and RMB7,058.6 million, respectively.
- The investment case rests on solid NEV performance, improving margin profile and strong cash generation.
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)
- Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September
- Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026
- Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses
QFIN US – Follow-Up: Asset-Quality Pressure Undermines Early Bull Case; Recovery Shifts to 2026e
- Regulation steady, not softer; policy silence reaffirms the 24% cap as industry standard, with industry participants electing to comply with immediate effect.
- Asset stress rising; delinquencies peak as low-tier borrowers struggle, but QFIN’s disciplined underwriting and data scale set the stage for recovery in 2026e.
- Leadership and capital strength, market-leading balance sheet and strong commitment to shareholder returns underpin confidence through the transition phase.
Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): New Licensing Agreement Asserts R&D Prowess and Pipeline Strength
- Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) granted Roche an exclusive worldwide license to (excluding the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) to develop, manufacture and commercialize HS-20110.
- HS-20110 is an investigational CDH17-targeting ADC currently being developed for the treatment of colorectal cancer (CRC) and other tumors, with global Phase I trial underway in China and the US.
- CDH17 targeted ADCs development (about 31 drug development projects ongoing) scene obviously seems crowded, but Hansoh’s strong execution with Roche’s global prowess will surely give it an edge.
Pre-IPO BlissBio – The Pipeline Has Not yet Been Verified as No Deal Has Been Reached with MNCs
- The new payload story/ADC-engineering platforms need to be verified by big licensing-out deals. If verification is successful, MNCs will pay high price.However, if verification fails, BlissBio’s pipeline would be “ignored”.
- BlissBio entered into a wind-down agreement with Eisai for BB-1701.In our view, MNC’s interest in BB-1701 is decreasing.The possibility of reaching big BD deal on BB-1712/BB-1705 is also not high.
- The investment logic of biotech has changed and high valuation is driven by big licensing-out deals. From this perspective, we think valuation of BlissBio should be lower than peers.
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