Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba, Mandom Corp, Chery Automobile, Toyota Motor, M Dias Branco SA, Orion Breweries, NIFTY Index and more

• Alibaba (9988 HK) launched Qwen3-Max, its largest LLM to date, along with a suite of Qwen3 models and technical upgrades at its annual flagship conference, reinforcing its full-stack AI ambitions.
• The stock has surged nearly 50% month-to-date, fueled by investor optimism over AI-related upside, since the August 29 investor call.
• Investors now await proof that execution and performance will deliver on Alibaba’s bold technical claims and high market expectations.

• Murakami reported a 7.14% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,070.73 per share is 5.6% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
• Murakami undoubtedly shares Hibiki’s concerns. On 15 September, Hibiki issued an open letter questioning the rationale behind the Board’s recommendation of a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO. 
• With the emergence of Murakami, CVC and the founding family’s options narrow. The need for satisfaction of the precondition buys time, but a bump seems inevitable. 

• Chery Automobile (9973. HK) priced its IPO at HK$30.75 per share to raise gross proceeds of approximately US$1.2 billion. The shares will begin trading on September 25.
• The IPO was discussed in Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case, Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case and Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK): Valuation Insights. 
• The market sentiment of the peers has declined since the IPO launch. Chery Auto is fairly valued at the IPO price.

• Baba’s recent surge mirrors past rallies, with recent sideways price action raising a caution flag.
• Metrics from the options market suggest that sentiment that was overheated has begun to turn.
• We explore an alternative hedge that will not cap a continued rally but is less expensive than directly buying Puts in Baba.

• Chery Auto, the second largest Chinese domestic brand passenger vehicle company, priced its IPO at the high end of the range at HK$30.75/share.
• High demand for the stock was predictable. Cornerstone investors collectively agreed to acquire ~$588M worth of Chery Auto shares in this offering.  
• The Chery Auto stock is set to start trading on Thursday. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO offer price as growth is slowing down and margins compressed.

• Context: The Toyota Motor (7203 JP) vs. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Suzuki and short Toyota targets a 9% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Chery Automobile (9973 HK) raised around US$1.2bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
• Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• M Dias Branco is the undisputed market leader in Brazil’s cookies and pasta segments, possessing a vast portfolio of well-recognized brands and an extensive nationwide distribution network.
• The company is exposed to significant commodity price volatility, particularly wheat, and currency fluctuations, which can pressure margins. However, a vertical integration strategy, including its own mills, helps mitigate some of this risk.
• After a period of margin compression, recent financial performance shows signs of recovery driven by price adjustments and cost control measures. Future growth is expected to come from organic expansion in underpenetrated regions, product innovation, and potential acquisitions.

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• Orion Breweries holds a dominant market position in its home market of Okinawa, commanding a market share of approximately 40-60%. This provides a stable foundation for its operations.
• The company is strategically diversifying its business into tourism and hotels, leveraging the strong tourism industry in Okinawa to create synergies with its core beer business.
• While poised for growth through an upcoming IPO and overseas expansion, Orion faces significant challenges including high leverage, upcoming tax headwinds, and intense competition from larger domestic rivals.

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• In our previousNIFTY Index insight published at the end of August we highlighted two possible scenarios before the Sep-30 rebalance: 1) risk-off pullback or 2) small rally. 
• Scenario 2), the small rally is what came true, it lasted 3 weeks (we said 2 weeks), but it was a weak rally. The NIFTY however is not very overbought.
• 3-Week rallies not reaching higher highs usually indicate a weakness in the trend, but this could be a buy opportunity, so let’s have a look at our model’s BUY zones…