Daily Brief Consumer: Digital Holdings Inc, WeRide, Restaurant Brands NZ, Pop Mart, Godfrey Phillips India, Shimano Inc, Hasbro Inc, Build A Bear Workshop, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Unilever and more

• The Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) Board has responded to SilverCape’s hostile offer by proposing countermeasures ostensibly to protect the interests of minorities.
• The precedent Makino countermeasures against Nidec’s hostile offer were intended to buy time for a higher white-knight offer. In this case, it is being done to facilitate a lower offer.  
• The countermeasures will severely dent SilverCape’s chances of succeeding. Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)’s irrevocables and insiders should be sufficient to pass the shareholder vote to implement the countermeasures. 

• WeRide (WRD US) plans to raise around US$325m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
• We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note.
• In this note, we talk about the deal structure and updates since then.

• After issuing a formal takeover notice on the 30th September, restaurant operator Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ) announced an Official Offer from controlling shareholder Finaccess Restauración on the 14th October. 
• Finaccess is offering NZ$5.05/share in cash for shares not held. Best & final. Finaccess holds 75.02%. Accident Compensation Corporation, with 4.7%, is supportive. The Offer is unconditional.
• The Target Statement is now out, with an independent expert fair value of NZ$5.24-NZ$6.20. The Independent Directors believe the risks associated with remaining as a shareholder outweigh the Offer price.

• Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.
• We highlight the growing concerns about the declining resale values of Labubu. After reaching their peak prices in this summer, the resale prices of Labubu dolls have continued to drop.
• Its share price declining below the critical HK$250 support on big volumes suggest negative technicals on this stock. 

• Godfrey Phillips India is demonstrating robust top-line growth, consistently outpacing its primary competitor and gaining market share, driven by its strong brand portfolio which includes the licensed production of Marlboro.
• Despite impressive revenue and net income growth, the company faces a significant challenge with deteriorating cash flow, as evidenced by negative 3-year compound annual growth rates for both operating and free cash flow.
• The company operates within a highly regulated and taxed industry, posing persistent risks to profitability and growth. However, its strong brand equity and expanding distribution provide a solid foundation to navigate these challenges.

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• Q3 sales fell 4% YoY and operating profit dropped 57%, reflecting continued weakness in bicycles and margin compression, though results aligned with lowered guidance. 
• Elevated channel inventories in Europe and China highlight lingering post-Covid demand normalization, with 2026 guidance likely to remain conservative amid structural headwinds.
• ROIC has halved as invested capital outpaced sales growth; despite strong cash and shareholder returns, Shimano faces slow recovery and limited near-term catalysts.

• Retailers’ delayed ordering patterns and recent rush to restock in anticipation of strong year-end toy demand have placed Hasbro in a strategic position to regain lost momentum in Q4 2025.
• Toy sellers had initially postponed purchases amid tariff uncertainty and uneven consumer demand, opting instead for domestic shipping and just-in-time inventory strategies.
• As trade conditions stabilized and consumer appetite for toys remained solid, retailers have placed accelerated orders for holiday delivery.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $75 price target for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
• As the crescendo for Halloween nears, the company is already seeing spot sellouts of key lines, with many Halloween-exclusive “furry friends” at very low levels.
• Further, the NFL driven focus has also helped sales and traffic, even with the dismal performances of the Jets and Giants.

• The decline in IPOs for small-cap companies was as anticipated. Once the topic of revising the listing criteria for Growth Markets arose, IPOs had to pay attention to new criteria.
• For companies planning IPOs, the requirement to demonstrate a commitment to growth during the listing review process has a positive aspect: it’ll lead to a decrease in small-scale listings.
• Growing companies will move to Prime Market, while those failing to reach JPY10 billion will transition to Standard. Companies maintaining JPY10 billion but without growth may stay in Growth Market.

• Unilever’s second quarter and first half results of 2025 demonstrate a mixture of growth patterns, strategic advancements, and operational challenges across its global business units.
• The company reported an underlying sales growth of 3.4% in the first half, driven by a combination of volume (1.5%) and price (1.9%) contributions, showcasing a balanced approach to growth.
• The overall volume growth was balanced across its diverse portfolio and regions, reflecting Unilever’s focus on a multi-pronged growth strategy.