Daily Brief Consumer: Macromill, Inc, Base Food, Tam Jai International, Trip.com, Groupon , Prosus NV, Mixue Group, Tapestry Inc, Ralph Lauren and more

• Today, the closing date of the Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) by CVC saw the tender offer extended by an extra 10 days with new news.
• Price had been declared final. One very large shareholder had said they would not tender. Two more were negotiating. Those two will now tender and reinvest in the back end.
• This does not mean the tender offer is a done deal, but it is worth examining.

• Base Food (2936 JP) announced a partial tender offer from MBF Acceleration, the largest shareholder.
• The offer is for a maximum of 3.7 million shares (6.97% ownership ratio) at JPY688 per share, a 23.3% premium to the last close price.
• The offer has no minimum acceptance condition, and the price is reasonable. The estimated minimum proration is 21.43%.

• Tam Jai International (2217 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP) at HK$1.58 per share, a 75.6% premium to the last close price. 
• The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
• The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal. 

• After Tam Jai  (2217 HK) was suspended, in Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer I expected an Offer from TORIDOLL Holdings (3397 JP).
• I also thought an Offer price ~HK$1.50/share would be welcome, but wasn’t hopeful. We got both – a Scheme from Toridoll at HK$1.58/share (best & final).
• Clean deal. Just a question of timing. Docs may be delayed to incorporate FY25E (Mar Y/E) financials. 

• In China, travelers grew by 13% YoY in 4Q24 and 15% in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
• We expect total revenue will grow by 19% YoY in 4Q24 and 2024.
• We are confident in the company’s financial performance, but the stock price is overvalued.

• Groupon is a lead generation tool for local service businesses that offers discounted deals.
• The speaker, from the hedge fund Windward, believes Groupon presents a highly asymmetric and convex investment opportunity with potential for a 5 to 1 risk-reward ratio.

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• Discounts likely set for further narrowing as Chinese government adopts a more positive stance towards the private sector (Tencent).
• The discounts of Naspers and Prosus have recovered to levels last seen prior to the publication of the Chinese Military Companies list by the DoD at start of the year.
• Last week Friday, Tencent rallied 7.4% following news that the Chinese government are expected to host a summit with Jack Ma and DeepSeek founder, Liang Wenfeng.

• MIXUE invited experts to conduct calculations based on population data. The result is a maximum of 45,000 stores can be opened. So, MIXUE has reached the growth ceiling in China.
• The pain point is since MIXUE’s growth depends significantly on its ability to expand store network, once the growth of franchised stores slows down, a performance decline would be inevitable.
• Due to larger scale effect/stronger supply chains/higher net profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. Higher valuation depends on whether MIXUE is able to make breakthrough in internationalization.

• Tapestry reported strong results for its second quarter, surpassing expectations with record quarterly revenue and earnings per share.
• The company, known for its brands Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman, demonstrated its commitment to strategic brand building and disciplined financial management, resulting in a 5% revenue growth, driven primarily by Coach’s impressive 10% increase.
• Positive aspects of the earnings report include Tapestry’s successful expansion in international markets.

• Ralph Lauren’s third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results reflect a blend of positive momentum and strategic growth, tempered by an acknowledgment of ongoing market challenges.
• The company reported a double digit revenue increase, significantly surpassing its own expectations across all geographies, indicating robust brand momentum and effective strategic investments, particularly noticeable during the peak holiday season.
• This was facilitated by an agile global supply chain that successfully met heightened consumer demand.