In today’s briefing:
- CVC Bumps the Macromill (3978) Price, Declares Final, and That’s That… Or Is It?
- Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Privatisation Offer
- Kalyan Jewellers: Rumour-Driven Stock Slide, F&O Ban—Is There Room for Further Correction?
- NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Potential Changes in March
- JD.com (JD US): Trusted Online Retailer Trading at a 9x P/E with a Coming Margin Inflection
- Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Going Private Is Not an “exit” from the Market, but the Beginning of the Next Step
CVC Bumps the Macromill (3978) Price, Declares Final, and That’s That… Or Is It?
- On Friday 17 January, the closing date of the CVC Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) at ¥1,150/share, the bidder announced an extension of the Tender Offer.
- They also announced a bump to ¥1,250/share, and that included a comment saying they resolved not to raise the price further.
- This happened during market hours, and the price jumped to just below ¥1,250/share. But one should not consider this a done deal. For reasons…
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Privatisation Offer
- Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ) (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held.
- City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held.
- Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.
Kalyan Jewellers: Rumour-Driven Stock Slide, F&O Ban—Is There Room for Further Correction?
- Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) stock has dropped 36% year-to-date and is now under an F&O ban after open interest hit threshold limits.
- The rumours driving the stock decline lack financial or strategic relevance with no substantial reason for long-term investors to panic.
- The stock correction has realigned Kalyan’s P/E discount to Titan, with current levels likely to stabilise and thus provide a near term support for Kalyan Jeweller’s stock price.
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Potential Changes in March
- With 10 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 15.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 52bn (US$600m). All forecast changes, bar one, have over 1.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- All the forecast deletes are F&O members while two adds are not. NSE Indices could revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.
JD.com (JD US): Trusted Online Retailer Trading at a 9x P/E with a Coming Margin Inflection
China-focused Twitter user “pandawatch” posted a tweet comparing the total shareholder return of Chinese tech companies.
At the top of the list was online retailer JD.com (JD US — US$57 billion) with a total dividend yield and buyback yield of 10% — even after deducting share-based compensation. That’s impressively high.
- JD is one of China’s largest e-commerce companies. It dominates the niche of selling authentic, branded goods online with fast and reliable delivery.
Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Due to intense competition, freshly-made beverage market has shown signs of saturation after rapid growth in previous years. Guming is currently in a bottleneck period. Future performance growth will decline.
- Due to a decrease in consumption, we have seen the price war in this industry. We think Guming’s profit margin performance will decline in the future if it reduces prices.
- Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) and Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) due to larger revenue scale/higher net profit margin, but lower than MIXUE.
Going Private Is Not an “exit” from the Market, but the Beginning of the Next Step
- The previous share price of FUJISOFT did not reach the value it should have, and therefore, the company did not achieve its management goal of maximizing shareholder profit.
- The decision for shareholder return or investment in growth rests with management. Cash returned to shareholders is simply invested by investors to find investments where they can earn better investment.
- Rather than “shareholder pressure,” we should think this is the beginning of an effort to return to the basics of shareholder-oriented management, which is to expand shareholder interests.
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