In today’s briefing:
- NIO HK Placement – Lots of Reasons to Avoid and Only One to Invest
- Tinycap Cash-Rich Cookpad (2193) With HUGE Buyback. AGAIN
- Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Trial in China Delayed by Regulatory Checks
- Retail’s last barbarian takes on Walgreens Boots
- The Wendy’s Company: International Expansion
- Eco-Shop Marketing Pre-IPO – Deserving a Premium Valuation
- What It Takes to Bring Back Overseas Investors once They Have Left ….
- Diageo CEO: Shifting Drinking Trends, Brand Innovation, and Cultural Change
- [Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$196) TP Change]: Sustained Operating Profit Growth in 2025…TOP BUY
- Mister Car Wash: Are They Successfully Achieving Sustainability and Predictability of Revenue through Subscriptions?

NIO HK Placement – Lots of Reasons to Avoid and Only One to Invest
- NIO (9866 HK) is looking to raise around US$450m via a primary placement in Hong Kong.
- The shares haven’t done much this year or ever since they were listed.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Tinycap Cash-Rich Cookpad (2193) With HUGE Buyback. AGAIN
- Hugely cash-rich Cookpad Inc (2193 JP) wouldn’t hit my radar except for two things. 1) it was the target of Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Maki-san a few years ago…
- And 2) they did a huge buyback last year which pumped up the stock very bigly.
- Maki-San appears long gone from the shares, but now they are doing another big buyback. Just as bigly. But there are new nuances this year.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Trial in China Delayed by Regulatory Checks
- Tesla’s highly anticipated trial launch of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system in China has suffered a setback, as some users report not receiving the feature update due to a delay in regulatory approval.
- Tesla China said Monday that it is working to secure government approval for both software and hardware under new national guidelines issued by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation.
- The company said the trial will resume once all preparations are complete.
Retail’s last barbarian takes on Walgreens Boots
- Walgreens Boots Alliance has seen their stock price decimated over the last decade due to competition from E-commerce retailers like Amazon.
- Sycamore Partners is taking Walgreens Boots private in a $24 billion leveraged buyout, their first foray into the healthcare sector.
- Major private equity firms have been cautious of retail buyouts due to potential bad publicity and shifting priorities towards other investments.
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The Wendy’s Company: International Expansion
- The Wendy’s Company reported its fiscal 2024 fourth quarter and full-year results, highlighting a range of strategic initiatives and financial metrics.
- The company experienced a 5.4% increase in global system-wide sales on a constant currency basis during the fourth quarter, driven largely by same-restaurant sales growth in the U.S. and internationally.
- This was bolstered by innovative menu offerings and strategic partnerships, such as the collaboration with Paramount on SpongeBob’s 25th anniversary, which contributed significantly to sales.
Eco-Shop Marketing Pre-IPO – Deserving a Premium Valuation
- Eco-Shop Marketing (ECO MY) is looking to raise about US$226m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.
- It is the largest dollar chain in Malaysia, as per the number of stores it operates, as of 31 October 2024.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.
What It Takes to Bring Back Overseas Investors once They Have Left ….
- Since the ROE of Japanese companies is lower than that of U.S. and European companies, few companies become the companies of choice for long-term investors to invest in.
- Overseas investors bought significant overbought of Japanese equities in previous year, in the hope that the shift to inflation would trigger an improving ROE as they used their cash reserves.
- Simply using cash on hand for shareholder returns doesn’t create value. To bring investors back, the key is to let them know that it won’t take much to see results.
Diageo CEO: Shifting Drinking Trends, Brand Innovation, and Cultural Change
- Consumer discretionary wallets for alcoholic beverages are less than 2% and affected by economic pressures
- Gen Z is moderating their alcohol consumption but still engaging in zebra striping behavior
- Socializing dynamics are shifting towards more at-home and third space occasions, leading to the rise of RTDs and diverse formats in the industry
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$196) TP Change]: Sustained Operating Profit Growth in 2025…TOP BUY
- Meituan reported C4Q24 revenue in-line, and non-IFRS OP miss 7.9%/1.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, due to extra Opex on purchasing GPU, while core biz profitability improved.
- We see membership initiatives and enhancing O2O penetration as the main catalyst in 2025, and the downside risk on competition, social security, and overseas investment are limited.
- We rise TP to HK$196 to factor in the promising OP growth trajectory and keep as TOP BUY in China e-commerce.
Mister Car Wash: Are They Successfully Achieving Sustainability and Predictability of Revenue through Subscriptions?
- Mister Car Wash, in its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results announcement, reported a strong finish to the year, with significant gains in key financial metrics and operational developments.
- The company delivered a 6% growth in comparable store sales during the fourth quarter, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of comparable sales growth.
- This was largely driven by the successful introduction of the premium Titanium service, and overall revenues for the year grew by 7%, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 12%.
