In today’s briefing:
- NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering
- Toei Animation Placement: Expensive, but Owns Valuable IP
- [Japan ECM] Toei Animation (4816) Not as Interesting An Offering As It Could Have Been
- NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise
- StubWorld: The Murdoch Succession Into News Corp, Fox & REA
- Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO
- PointsBet (PBH AU) And Mixi Double Down Ahead Of Offer Closing
- NIO HK/ADS Placement – Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn
- Deliveroo Delivered: Clean Takeout, No Leftovers
- Chery Auto IPO PHIP Update & Review
NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering
- NIO (9866 HK) / NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.
- The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. NIO (NIO US) closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect NIO (9866 HK) to open around HK$44.55/share.
- There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) trackers is more nuanced.
Toei Animation Placement: Expensive, but Owns Valuable IP
- Toei Animation (4816 JP) ’s shareholder, Fuji Media, is looking to raise around US$210m from a secondary placement.
- The deal is a large one to digest, representing 41.7 days of the stock’s three month ADV and 4.9% of the shares outstanding.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
[Japan ECM] Toei Animation (4816) Not as Interesting An Offering As It Could Have Been
- In Feb 2024, I wrote Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting.
- Today, the company announced another offering where Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) is selling 10.575mm shares in an overseas offering priced likely tomorrow.
- It is not as interesting as I had expected. But it means the NEXT offering could be more interesting. But there is index buying long-term anyway.
NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise
- NIO (NIO US), a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion.
- The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.
- While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.
StubWorld: The Murdoch Succession Into News Corp, Fox & REA
- After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch’s son Lachlan is set to take control of News Corp (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).
- Preceding my comments on News Corp and 62%-held REA Group Ltd (REA AU) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO
- Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.
- The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.
- The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.
PointsBet (PBH AU) And Mixi Double Down Ahead Of Offer Closing
- On the 29th August, Mixi (2121 JP) cleared 50% of the voting power in PointsBet (PBH AU). It’s Offer was automatically extended, and will now close on the 12th September.
- Mixi has 51.59%. betr Entertainment (BBT AU) said it holds 20.45%, plus 6.5% in the IAF, the instructions for which can be withdrawn. betr said it won’t accept Mixi’s Offer.
- Mixi adds betr will have no PBH board representation “either now or in the future”; and betr will continue to be a clear competitor. Additionally, PBH questions betr’s buyback funding,
NIO HK/ADS Placement – Slightly Better Placed, but Slightly Bigger Deal at US$1bn
- NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise around US$1bn via a primary placement in Hong Kong and US.
- The company had last raised around US$450m in March 2025. The deal didn’t end up doing well.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Deliveroo Delivered: Clean Takeout, No Leftovers
- All regulatory approvals secured; Deliveroo’s 180p/share takeover by DoorDash now awaits only procedural court steps. Sanction hearing is scheduled for 30 September; scheme effective date is 2 October.
- With a 1p spread and 179p entry, the deal offers ~8.9% annualised return by early October. Early entrants at 170.8p continue to realise strong IRRs above 12%.
- Risk is minimal with near-unanimous shareholder backing and no regulatory obstacles remaining. Administrative timing is the only variable; monitoring court scheduling and filing is key to arbitrage efficiency.
Chery Auto IPO PHIP Update & Review
- Chery Auto is getting ready to complete its IPO in the next few weeks. It is expected that Chery Auto could raise about US$1.5 -2.0 billion in this IPO.
- ROE is super high at 70%+. Chery Auto has one of the highest ROEs among all the major auto companies globally.
- Chery Auto has one of the best records among all the major auto companies globally in the past three years in terms of sales and net profit growth.
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