Daily Brief Consumer: Pop Mart, Toyota Motor, Lynch Group Holdings, Aniplus, JBS, Dream International, Honda Motor, China Resources Beverage, Shakey’s Pizza and more

• The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 245% YoY in 3Q25.
• Within China revenue, the growth rates of both online and offline accelerated in 3Q25.
• The company highlighted that revenues surged significantly in America and Europe.

• Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has been going nowhere since July 2025 and before that it dropped from its highest peak. Long-term bullish, but short term we expect a pullback.
• Our model shows that the current trend pattern for Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is not bullish, usually the stock pulls back after 2 weeks up, i.e. end of this week.
• We propose this analysis of the pullback as an opportunity to buy at higher prices, or otherwise to hedge your holdings, if you want to tactically optimize returns.

• Back on the 20th August, Lynch Group (LGL AU), an integrated wholesale floral play, entered into a Scheme with Hasfarm Holdings and Darwin Aus Bidco – both are TPG entities.
• TPG offered A$2.245/share, a 28.3% premium to last close, including a A$0.09/share fully franked dividend. 38.5% of shareholders were supportive. TPG held a call option for 19.9% of shares out.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 21st November, and expected implementation on the 9th December. The IE (KPMG) says “fair & reasonable”. Clean deal.

• The Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU) IE considers TPG Inc (TPG US)’s A$2.155 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$1.93 to A$2.27 valuation range.
• The offer is conditional on shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk as the majority of substantial shareholders are supportive.   
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 9 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.7%/5.1%.

• Aniplus is increasingly becoming a leading player in the anime contents production and distribution in Korea. The company’s anime contents have potential to expand globally. 
• Valuations are attractive. It is trading at P/E of 9x in 2025 and 7.9x in 2026 based on consensus earnings estimates. 
• If we use P/E of 15x on 2026E net profit of 26.9 billion won, this would suggest a market cap of 404 billion won (95% higher than current market cap). 

• JBS (JBS US) is now listed in both Brazil and the US following its dual listing on 13 June 2025.
• The majority of the company’s assets and revenues are in North and Central America, resulting in eligibility for US nationality.
• With a company market cap of $14.5bn, the security is expected to be added to a US index in June 2026 following eligible nationality and public voting rights.

• We met with the management of Dream International (1126 HK) in Hong Kong. The company is riding a hectic phase with its Vietnam operations running at full capacity.
• Management is evaluating capacity expansion in Indonesia and Vietnam for plastic and plush toy production serving China, targeting an aggregate capacity increase of approximately 20–30% to meet demand.
• The stock has pulled back and trades at 8.9x PE, 5.1 EV-EBITDA, with a 6.2% dividend yield and 21% of the market capitalization in cash, and 10 Yr-Avg ROCE ~20%. 

• Context: The Honda (7267 JP) vs. Subaru (7270 JP) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Honda (7267 JP) and short Subaru (7270 JP) targets a 5% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) (CRB) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its PE investor is set to expire soon.
• China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• Shakey’s Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA) is aggressively pursuing a multi-brand global expansion strategy, targeting 420-430 new stores in FY25, with a strong focus on its high-growth Potato Corner brand in international markets like the US and China.
• Despite a recent 34% YoY profit decline in Q2 FY25 due to margin pressures, the company anticipates a significant earnings recovery in the second half of the year, driven by new store openings and seasonal strength in Q4.
• The company has demonstrated a robust long-term growth track record with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 38.16% and a net income CAGR of 113.30%, though it faces intense competition and execution risks related to its rapid expansion.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.