Daily Brief Consumer: Ryohin Keikaku, PointsBet Holdings , Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech, Newton Golf Company, Dentsu Inc, ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Aramark, Vince Holding and more

• On 26 August at the close, 2 names will get added to and 5 names deleted from a global index provider’s major Japan/global “standard” index.
• 6 of 7 changes were in the Quiddity Index predictions as of end Jun-2025. One dropped, then two got added. Our final predictions had all seven plus one more DEL.
• They were well-flagged so well pre-positioned. This insight looks at shareholder structure, historical fundamental ratios, and performance vs Peers. This sets up a possible trade before or into the event.

• Mixi Inc (2121 JP) disclosed its final PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer. The base unconditional offer remains A$1.25 but will be increased to A$1.30 if it acquires a 90% stake. 
• Mixi’s final offer is designed to put maximum pressure on BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) to fold. Mixi would not satisfy the 90% threshold unless Betr accepts its offer.
• Betr has three options: to improve its offer, accept Mixi’s offer, or maintain terms. The last option, which results in a significant stake in a competitor, makes strategic sense.

• Mixi Inc (2121 JP) has bumped its Offer to A$1.30/share, up from A$1.25/share; and declared terms final. Mixi currently holds 37.12% of shares out. 
• Separately, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) released its Target Statement as it relates betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s all-scrip Offer, with a definitive “Reject”.
• Mixi’s Offer is open to the 29th August – and will not be extended. Time for betr to fold its tent.

• Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech (SFCBT HK)  is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• SFC is the leader among China’s premium domestic skincare brands. In 2024, SFC was ranked first among all premium domestic skincare brands in China by retail sales.
• In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

• Newton Golf (NASDAQ: NWTG) is an innovative, technology driven golf company with a growing portfolio of golf products, including putters, golf shafts, golf grips, and other golf-related accessories.
• The company went public in August 2023 raising $11.6 million in net proceeds.
• The company announced its entry into the golf shaft market in November 2023.

Dentsu’s Q225 performance was a little below management expectations, with conditions remaining challenging outside Japan. Group operating margins were controlled for H125 at 12.0%. With a further goodwill write-down of ¥86.0bn, Dentsu reported a statutory loss for H125 and is not now paying an interim dividend. A decision on the full year will be made later, and our model assumes dividends resume for FY26. Our FY25 forecasts have been realigned to match revised guidance, with a slightly more cautious stance on growth for FY26. Management’s target for operating margins of 16–17% by FY27 remains in place, predicated on the targeted cost reductions in the mid-term management plan.

• MFE secured 43.6% of ProSieben; board supports its offer. PPF stalled at 18.4% with expired bid. The arbitrage spread compressed, leaving minimal upside but structural consolidation remains pivotal.
• Short-Term arbitrage returns are capped (+0.4% base case), while downside risk persists if blocking dynamics resurface. The medium-term value case depends on synergy delivery, with 18–35% EPS accretion possible.
• Key milestones: September 1 end of extended acceptance, September 4 final results. Thereafter, MFE may pursue creeping acquisitions under Germany’s best-price rule, progressively consolidating control and enabling strategic integration.

• More companies are mentioning share buybacks, reducing cross-shareholdings, capital allocation policies, and capital costs. However, the ROE of most companies has not improved significantly.
• “TSE’s request” is at critical juncture addressing whether it’ll lead to formal improvements such as the introduction of corporate governance code, or whether it’ll enable sustainable growth in corporate value.
• Looking at recent market trends, investors are increasingly expecting activist investors to directly demand management reforms from companies, in anticipation that it’ll take time to realize results of internal reforms.

• Aramark’s third quarter of fiscal 2025 showcased a blend of record-breaking revenues, strategic client wins, and persistent operational challenges.
• The company reported record-setting revenues of $4.6 billion, a 6% increase, alongside a significant achievement in adjusted EPS growth of nearly 30%.
• This performance was largely driven by organic growth, strategic client engagements, and elevated retention rates, exceeding 97% in both U.S. and International Food Services segments.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $4 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.
• Given the company’s response to tariffs has somewhat muddied the traditional product flows, our visits were a combination of two seasons (Pre-Fall 1 & 2) in a period where traditionally a third season (Pre-Fall 3) is debuting.
• Did it matter?