In today’s briefing:
- 7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds
- Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Acceptable
- RERE: 4Q24 Earnings – EPS as Expected Investing for Growth to Keep Pace with Accelerating Demand
- Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) – Increasingly Diversified Growth
- BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Growing Spring Confidence; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT
- What’s News in Amsterdam – 11 March 2025 (Unilever | Fugro)
- ContextLogic (LOGC)
- QuantaSing Group Limited: EPS Beat on Higher Revenues/Operating Income
- Shimojima (7482 JP) – OPM Rebounded from Q2 3.4% → Q3 8.6% on Price Hikes
7&I (3382) Update – Couche-Tard Responds
- On 10 March, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) issued a release “UPDATE ON PROPOSAL FOR A COMBINATION WITH SEVEN & i“.
- They felt obliged to be transparent in the wake of the 7&i Letter To Shareholders released yesterday. The content/nuance of the two letters differ significantly.
- Two parties competing to get a truth which cannot be both could be problematic. We are still many months away from any kind of ACT/7-11 deal.
Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Acceptable
- In recent years, Goldlion is facing performance headwinds. Both revenue and net profit have shown a downward trend due to declining consumption, real estate crisis and unfavorable external factors.
- In short term, the weak consumer confidence and market momentum are unlikely to improve. Goldlion’s performance may gradually pick up in 2026 and 2027 but is still in downward trend.
- Considering the low trading liquidity, weak fundamentals, uncertainties on performance brought by Goldlion’s potential strategic transformation and the concerns on the outlook, we think the Cancellation Price is acceptable.
RERE: 4Q24 Earnings – EPS as Expected Investing for Growth to Keep Pace with Accelerating Demand
- Key 4Q24 takeaways include: 1) real-time step ups in trade-in activity and consumer demand for high-quality preowned products on the heels of recently introduced government subsidies and ongoing growth in the supply of new smartphone shipments continue to drive accelerating revenue growth 2) in response to building demand trends, management plans to continue to expand the company’s footprint (800 new store openings planned for this year), branding initiatives via new social media content/channels, and fulfillment capabilities and 3) while we assume adjusted operating income margins hold steady this year, our model calls for material margin expansion looking out to 2026, as revenue growth momentum continues to build and expense inflation moderates.
Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) – Increasingly Diversified Growth
- Sido Muncul remains a standout consumer proxy in Indonesia through its Tolak Angin herbal brand playing into increased health consciousness and through its energy drinks exposure through Kuku Bima.
- The company continues to expand its product range in herbal, reducing its reliance on Tolak Angin. F&B is seeing stronger growth, with pharmaceuticals also becoming a more important driver.
- Sido Muncul continues to expand its distribution locally across general trade and modern trade, with the international business outgrowing the local business and becoming more important. Valuation remains attractive.
BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Growing Spring Confidence; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the March 2025 catalog.
- As has been the hallmark since 4Q24, March saw material increases in overall SKU count (up 5.8%) YoY and pricing (12.5% YoY increase).
- That said, while overall prices increased, this month saw a slowdown in the rate of discounting, with the catalog registering less than 30% of total SKUs on sale; while still up YoY, March 2025 sales rate was the second lowest since August 2024.
What’s News in Amsterdam – 11 March 2025 (Unilever | Fugro)
- In this edition: • Unilever | Mr Fernandez’ first statements as CEO signal the first signs of change • Fugro | to perform geotechnical site investigation for Blue Mackerel offshore wind farm
ContextLogic (LOGC)
- ContextLogic Inc. (NASDAQ: LOGC) has transformed from an e-commerce operator to a cash-rich shell company possessing substantial tax assets, positioning it as a unique investment opportunity.
- The company’s recent strategic partnership with BC Partners has created a significant value proposition for investors, particularly those seeking to navigate current market volatility.
- This investment opportunity combines tangible cash assets with substantial tax benefits, all supported by sophisticated financial backing.
QuantaSing Group Limited: EPS Beat on Higher Revenues/Operating Income
- Key F2Q25 takeaways include: 1) senior executives remain focused on continually realigning/improving the online learning course catalog, and increasingly leveraging QSG’s existing online platform and customer base
- 2) steady cash flows from the legacy online learning services platform continue to fund the strategic transition, with a focus on higher-quality products/services geared toward the silver demographic
- 3) management continues to launch new health/wellness related products and services aimed at the silver demographic, while exploring opportunities across the consumer sector to enhance growth
Shimojima (7482 JP) – OPM Rebounded from Q2 3.4% → Q3 8.6% on Price Hikes
- While 1H profits struggled under pressure on COS from the weak yen, price hikes for roughly 80% of products were implemented from September, a portion from October, so Q4 will see a full 3-month contribution.
- Note also success in controlling SG&A from Q3. Sapporo-based Ohkura Sangyo will be consolidated from Q1 FY26/3 with the acquisition completed in Jan-2025.
- In this report, we look at three TOPICS. The first is an update on CY2024 booming inbound demand, which is continuing coming into 2025.
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