Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Williams Sonoma, Guzman Y Gomez, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Sands China , Flos B&B Italia Group, Guess? Inc, ThredUp , Global Traffic Network and more

• Bloomberg reports that the MBO is stalling due to disagreements within the consortium over who will control Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) after it is privatised.
• The Nikkei reported that Itochu Corp (8001 JP) was set to withdraw from the MBO consortium. Along with CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)’s non-participation, the MBO’s financing is in trouble. 
• An Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) bid remains in play but has issues. While progressing, the Board’s restructuring plan fails to prove a credible alternative. 

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
• In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.

• Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon.
• GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• Rubber latex exports value goes up to US$666.25 million in 2024  
• Average yearly rubber price marks a 47% YoY surge to US$1,971/mt  
• Domestic tire firms consume 58,000 tons of rubber in 2024

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sands China, MGM China, Biocon Biologics
• In the US, the Conference Board consumer confidence index slipped to 98.3 (102.5 e / 105.3 p) in February, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. The expectations index fell below 80 for the first time since June 2024, with the threshold usually indicating a recession ahead.
• Treasuries climbed for a fifth straight day, with yields declining 8-11 bps across the curve given the weak consumer confidence data and amid a strong auction of 5Y notes.

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Flos B&B Italia’s (formerly International Design Group) ESG as “Adequate”. The group has “Adequate” scores for the Environmental and Social pillars, while Governance is “Strong”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $23 price target and projections for Guess?
• after visiting stores in Long Island and the Metro New York City area.
• Given shifts in the calendar (materially later Easter), unseasonably cold weather and an unforeseen store closing, main line Guess?

• Trading at a discount to REAL. ThredUp (TDUP) and The RealReal (REAL) are largely in the same business and have similar business models.
• Based on FactSet consensus, TDUP is currently trading at less than 1x NTM revenue, while REAL is trading at ~2.5x. TDUP has very modest debt and its US business has been adjusted EBITDA profitable for the past five consecutive quarters, which gives it a leg up versus where REAL was a year ago.
• Now, post the European divestiture, when management can devote both time and capital to the US business alone, the focus should be on top-line growth. 

• RaaS has published an update on media group GTN Ltd following its H1 FY25 results in which it reported an 11% increase in adjusted EPS to $0.034.
• NPAT was 10% below our estimates, although normalising for additional Australian inventory spots and non-recurring costs, it was closer to our estimates.
• The H1 dividend was higher than we expected with 100% of NPATA paid out versus prior policy of 50% payout.