In today’s briefing:
- Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So
- Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Index Change Possible; ~US$180mn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- Guzman IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups for a US$750m+ Release
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: GEELY up 15% Vs Peers; ~US$2.2bn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- Mercari (4385 JP): Japan’s Leading C2C Trading App at 14x P/E with Margin Uplift Potential
- Bluestone Jewellery IPO Trading – Tepid Demand
- Aurora World – Palm Pals and YooHoo or Chairman’s Love of Golf?
- Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August ’25 Report
- Pop Mart (9992 HK) – Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast
Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So
- Nearly seven months after receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer had been entered into.
- The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, made an Offer of US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
- Now Hillhouse has thrown its hat into the ring with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. Smart Share’s special committee of independent directors should engage.
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
- Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
- We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
- CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Index Change Possible; ~US$180mn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2025 index rebal event will be publicly announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.
- We continue to expect Pop Mart (9992 HK) to be an ADD and J&T Global Express (1519 HK) to be a DEL in HSCEI in September 2025.
Guzman IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups for a US$750m+ Release
- Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its final IPO linked lockup expiry is due soon.
- GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: GEELY up 15% Vs Peers; ~US$2.2bn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2025 index rebal event will be announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.
- We continue to expect one low-conviction index change for September 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of ~US$2.2bn one-way.
Mercari (4385 JP): Japan’s Leading C2C Trading App at 14x P/E with Margin Uplift Potential
I’m fascinated by the market for second-hand goods.
eBay has existed for many decades, but it was only with the smartphone that the market took off.
With a smartphone, you could snap a photo of your item and post it online within minutes.
Bluestone Jewellery IPO Trading – Tepid Demand
- Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd (BJL) raised around US$176m in its India IPO.
- BJL offers contemporary lifestyle diamond, gold, platinum, and studded jewellery under its flagship brand. It is a digital-first direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand.
- We have looked at the past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
Aurora World – Palm Pals and YooHoo or Chairman’s Love of Golf?
- Aurora World reported excellent results in 2Q 2025. It had sales of 77.1 billion won (up 26.5% YoY) and operating profit of 8.8 billion won (up 86.7% YoY).
- The company’s excellent results in 2Q 2025 was driven by the continued strong demand for its character toys (Palm Pals, YooHoo & Friends, and Rolly Pets) in key overseas markets.
- If we attach a 10x P/E on estimated net profit of 30.1 billion won, it would suggest a market cap of 301 billion won (2026E) (37% upside from current levels).
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August ’25 Report
- MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.
- Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.
- Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.
Pop Mart (9992 HK) – Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast
- In bleak consumption environment, Pop Mart is definitely an “outsider”.Explanations such as “lipstick effect” are more like a self-consistent logic, which may have some sense, but doesn’t constitute core contradiction.
- To truly understand the investment value of Pop Mart, it’s necessary to assess future growth potential.We think overseas revenue could reach RMB16-17 billion in 2025 and RMB42 billion in 2026.
- Net profit CAGR in 2024-2026 could be about 79.5%. Pop Mart would still maintain high growth in short-term. But after 2026, there are uncertainties of channel policies and IP-driven factors.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
