Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, Mandom Corp, Physicswallah Limited, The Pinkfong Company, BYD, Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Wayfair Inc Class A, Black Rock Coffee Bar, Ferrari N.V. and more

• Last month, nearly two dozen global asset managers, through ACGA, submitted a joint letter to the boards of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Toyota Motor regarding the tender offer.
• The letter outlined five issues, which distilled down to concerns about a low-balled offer. Their cause is increasingly supported by market movements, which support the case for the bump.
• Recent activism against several low-balled tenders signals that TICO, despite its size, is not immune. My SoTP valuation is JPY19,607, which is 20.3% above the offer price.

• Mandom Corp (4917 JP) yesterday decided to launch a question-response effort for the Murakami-san Group ownership of Mandom shares up to and above 20%. This is a Poison Pill precursor.
• There’s a drawn out set of questions, answers, etc, at the end of which, the Independent Committee will decide that Murakami is a Bad Person and the Poison Pill proceeds.
• Murakami Group is apparently now over 20%. That’s a little tricky. But this looks like a Good Poison Pill. 

• Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 319.26m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$392m at a valuation of US$3.5bn.
• The price band has been set at INR 103-109/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
• The stock will be added to the AMFI Smallcap segment and inclusion in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is likely in March. Global index inclusion could commence in June.

• The Pinkfong Company successfully completed its IPO book building process. It finalized the IPO price at 38,000 won (high end of the IPO price range). 
• A total of 2,300 domestic and international institutions participated in the book building process. The IPO competition ratio was 615.9 to 1.  
• Our base case valuation of the Pinkfong Co is implied market cap of 671.4 billion won or target price of 46,369 won per share (over the next 6-12 months). 

• BYD (1211 HK) does not seem ready yet to reverse its downtrend, sentiment is still negative (not too negative), Q3 revenues decreased (no surprise, as recently noted by Ming Lu).
• BYD is short-term OVERSOLD, this is a tactical WEEKLY view presenting an actionable opportunity with a 1-3 week trade horizon (probably a 2 weeks rebound, maximum).
• Our quantitative models say the stock will not correct for more than 3 weeks when this pattern is encountered (the stock is currently in its second consecutive week down).

• Physicswallah is looking to raise about US$434m in its upcoming India IPO.
• Physicswallah Ltd (PWL) offers test preparation courses for competitive examinations, and other courses such as for upskilling, across 13 education categories, including JEE, NEET, and UPSC, among others.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Dominant Player in a High-Growth Market: Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY) is a leading producer of premium dairy and consumer food products in Indonesia, a market poised for significant growth driven by a rising middle class, increasing health consciousness, and urbanization. The company holds a dominant market share, particularly in the yogurt category.
• Robust Financial Performance and Strong Growth Track Record: CMRY has demonstrated an exceptional growth trajectory, with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 30.13% and a net income CAGR of 24.35%. This is underpinned by successful product innovation and expansion of its distribution network, leading to consistent margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation.
• Strategic Focus on Innovation and Distribution Expansion: The company’s strategy centers on continuous product innovation in both its dairy (Cimory brand) and consumer foods (Kanzler brand) segments, coupled with an aggressive expansion of its distribution channels, including modern trade, general trade, and its unique direct-to-consumer ‘Miss Cimory’ network. This dual focus is expected to sustain its growth momentum and market leadership.

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• Wayfair’s latest quarterly performance provides insight into both the company’s strategic achievements and the broader challenges it faces in a fluctuating market environment.
• During Q3 2025, Wayfair experienced a notable 9% year-over-year revenue growth excluding its exit from Germany, marking acceleration despite a sluggish housing market.
• This growth was accompanied by a significant surge in adjusted EBITDA, rising by over 70% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin reaching 6.7%, the highest for Wayfair outside of the pandemic period.

• Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB US) went public on 12 September 2025 on Nasdaq and has a current market cap of $1.2bn.
• Inclusion in US indices is expected in December 2025 and in Global index in February 2026, as the security meets eligibility criteria before lock-up expiry mainly due to ~100% float.
• Exclusion from certain US and Global index is anticipated due to limited market cap.

• Ferrari N.V. (RACE US) reported Q3 FY25 revenue and earnings growth of 7% and 3% YoY, respectively (4% above analysts’ estimates), due to better mix and personalization.
• Management is confident it will meet its conservative (revised upwards in capital markets day) FY25 guidance, projecting baseline revenue and EPS growth of 6% and 4% YoY, respectively.
• The stock trades at 38.4x FY25 PE and 22.4x EV-EBITDA. Ferrari N.V. (RACE US)  continues to maintain its unique pricing power, driven by its loyal customer base.