In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Activism/M&A] – Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger – Now It’s Partial Offer+Synergies
- [Japan Activism] The Upcoming Fuji Media AGM Stoush – Foreigners Vs Voting Right Limits
- Meituan (3690 HK): 1Q25, Main Businesses Up by 20%
- Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Five Changes; US$5.2bn Trade; Other Index Flows
- Thai Beverage (THBEV): Undervalued with Catalysts Coming
- NIFTY Index Outlook (With an Eye on Zomato’s Passive Selling Starting…)
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 May 2025); Volumes OK, Telecoms & Banks Bought, Tech & Consumer Sold
- Is Now Time to Move Forward with Efforts to Raise % Female Board Directors, Even Matching Numbers?
- DoorDash Inc.: How Autonomous Delivery Initiatives Could Potentially Redefine Logistics Within The Food Delivery & Broader E-Commerce Sectors!
[Japan Activism/M&A] – Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger – Now It’s Partial Offer+Synergies
- This morning the Nikkei reported shareholders of Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) approved their Merger. Activists opposed but it was going to be close at best.
- As expected, Welcia shares popped, and the spread converged to 2% with Tsuruha falling back to just below ¥11,400. Some of this is unwind of speculative interest in Tsuruha.
- The new yuhos are out, which shows roughly where we stand (as of end-Feb, and some updates). Now the trade is NEWCO vs Aeon’s interest and NEWCO vs World.
[Japan Activism] The Upcoming Fuji Media AGM Stoush – Foreigners Vs Voting Right Limits
- Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) has for years been “undervalued” and owned by value-oriented actively-managed fund managers. Under-used real estate and IP assets. Lack of governance regarding capital.
- A Shukan Bunshun article in Dec-2024 reported a former boy band SMAP member and Fuji TV regular made a big payment to an unidentified woman after a June 2023 “incident.”
- Fuji TV hemmed and hawed about its involvement. Advertisers bolted. Activists activisted. The chairman resigned. Now Major Activist Dalton has a director slate for the AGM. What Next?
Meituan (3690 HK): 1Q25, Main Businesses Up by 20%
- In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 18% YoY, with main businesses up by 20% YoY.
- The operating margin rose by 3.6 ppt YoY by cutting every cost in 1Q25.
- We expect EPS will grow by 37% in 2025 and the stock has an upside of 48%.
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Five Changes; US$5.2bn Trade; Other Index Flows
- There should be 5 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. Most changes are due to missing dividend forecasts for constituent stocks.
- Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.6% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 157bn (US$5.2bn).
- There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan dividend yield weighted indices and presents some interesting trading opportunities.
Thai Beverage (THBEV): Undervalued with Catalysts Coming
- Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) share price has been quite beaten down in the last few years and has not recovered since COVID.
- A few near-term catalysts that could revive the share price i.e. government subsidies for tourist flights, Chinese tourists are back, and the lifting of the alcohol sales ban in afternoon.
- Cheapest earnings multiple, pays higher dividend yield, high ROE, and also generated USD 420 million free cash flow.
NIFTY Index Outlook (With an Eye on Zomato’s Passive Selling Starting…)
- As reported by Brian Freitas , one of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) ‘s component (Zomato: Eternal (ETERNAL IN) ) will be subject to big passive selling beginning on Tuesday.
- Let’s have a look at the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) to evaluate the tactical outlook according to our model.
- Since our last BUY recommendation in a previous insight in early May, the index has made some progress uptrending, let’s see if the rally can continue…
Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH), a leading Chinese pharmaceutical company, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$1 billion.
- Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (FHF HK) has been China’s leading condiments company in terms of sales volume for 28 consecutive years.
- The investment case rests on its market positioning, return to growth, industry-leading profitability, cash generation and strong balance sheet. However, the valuation of the A Shares is full.
Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 May 2025); Volumes OK, Telecoms & Banks Bought, Tech & Consumer Sold
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back below HK$100bn a day this past week, but net buying was nearly HK$19bn, which is decent.
- Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS and TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is CONSUMER and INFO TECH dominating the top 20.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
Is Now Time to Move Forward with Efforts to Raise % Female Board Directors, Even Matching Numbers?
- It is good to see that affirmative action has increased the number of women managerial positions in ITOCHU. This is presumably due to the increase in foreign ownership.
- The non-statutory executive officers are not in a legally responsible position and are not involved in management decisions. 2 female independent non-executive directors do not have a management background.
- Looking at the board compositions, one notices many issues, but AGMs of many companies are concentrated in June, making it difficult to take the time to scrutinize the convocation notices.
DoorDash Inc.: How Autonomous Delivery Initiatives Could Potentially Redefine Logistics Within The Food Delivery & Broader E-Commerce Sectors!
- DoorDash’s latest earnings revealed a nuanced overview of its financial performance and strategic direction, highlighting a mix of strengths and challenges.
- The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated significant growth and ongoing investment in expanding its global footprint through strategic acquisitions.
- In terms of financial performance, DoorDash saw a continuation of growth trends, with consistent gains in gross order volume (GOV) and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), underscoring operational efficiency.
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