In today’s briefing:
- Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…
- Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting
- HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged but Overhang Remains
- MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison – Bigger, Faster, Stronger
- JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case
- MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation
- Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Losses Narrowing but Revenue Concentration Is High
- Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Goodman Group (GMG AU) – Big Placement, Big Index Flow But…
- After a minor “disaster” in a secondary placement in December, this morning industrial/infrastructure (including data centres) REIT/etc Goodman Group (GMG AU) announced results and an A$4bn primary offering.
- The large offering comes at a 6.9% discount, and For a combination of reasons, there is a LOT of buying to do with index tracking over the next short while.
- But that too has complications. Some is immediate. Some a little delayed. A bunch may be supplied by short sellers. There is one easy trade. A few more complicated.
Goodman Group Placement – Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting
- Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
- Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged but Overhang Remains
- KKR & Co (KKR US) is looking to raise around US$160m via selling some of its stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) .
- KKR had come out of its IPO linked lockup in Nov 2024 and had earlier tried to launch a deal in Dec 2024. Hence, the selldown is very well flagged.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comparison – Bigger, Faster, Stronger
- MIXUE Group Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
- In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh the peer comparison.
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case
- JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
- In JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on extensive proforma adjustments, the non-focus business remaining the largest profit contributor, margin pressure on the non-focus business and medium-to-long-term targets will likely disappoint.
MIXUE Pre-IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation
- Mixue Group (MIX HK) is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
- In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh our valuation.
Beijing Geekplus Pre-IPO: Losses Narrowing but Revenue Concentration Is High
- Geek+ (1678559D CH) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is a leader in the global autonomous mobile robots (AMR) market, offering a series of AMR solutions to empower warehouse fulfillment and industrial material transport.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- MIXUE’s supply chain advantages and economies of scale remain ahead of peers. This creates a unique barrier. When peers engage in price wars, MIXUE can still gain greater cost advantages.
- MIXUE’s performance growth depends significantly on its ability to expand franchised store network. But MIXUE may have reached the growth ceiling in China market based on its current expansion speed.
- The market prefers the franchise models. Despite declining growth rate in the whole industry, MIXUE’s valuation should still be higher than peers – e.g. P/E of 17-20x is comfortable range.
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