Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China Hongqiao, Capricorn Metals, Chuangxin Industries, Sakata Inx Corp, Alkane Resources, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Moresco Corp, Rayonier Advanced Materials, Spanish Mountain Gold and more

• China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
• There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
• Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.

• China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement.
• This represents 9.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 2.9% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• There could be 2 changes each for the ASX50 and ASX100 indices and 7 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
• Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
• The forecast adds have outperformed (and continue to outperform) the forecast deletes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 

• Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
• In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

• Yesterday post-close, Sakata Inx Corp (4633 JP) announced a ¥6bn+ selldown offering by financial crossholders. There may be others to come, but not clear how much.
• The company has had a good couple of years, the stock has reached book value. Optimised balance sheet ROE now clears 10%.
• Index impact is limited in all respects. Low vol, low multiple, decent dividend, high earnings progression on decent business growth are all positive factors. 

Since completing its merger with Mandalay Resources on 5 August, Alkane has 1) provided guidance for the combined group for FY26, 2) updated group reserves and resources and 3) released its Quarterly Activities Report for Q126. In the wake of these announcements, we forecast that the ‘new Alkane’ will produce c 158.8koz (plus c 4.3koz AuE in the form of antimony) in FY26 (cf 70.1koz in FY25) and that the merger will prove transformative to both its scale and valuation, including achieving the size required for inclusion in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the ASX 300 index (now confirmed).

• Thailand’s rubber exports up by .5% MoM to 204,095 MT in Sept

• Chinese imports decline while US imports sharply rise

• Significant disruption to production due to rains

  Thailand, which continued to witness unusually heavy rains during its ongoing production season, saw rubber export volume increasing marginally from August to September, while the returns also increased correspondingly as tight supply prevented prices from falling further.

• H1 FY2026/2 Results Review: In H1 FY2026/2, MORESCO CORPORATION (hereinafter, the Company) recorded net sales of JPY 16,865 mn (-1.4% YoY), due to lower automobile production and weaker demand for hot melt adhesives.
• However, operating profit rose significantly to JPY 949 mn (+41.5% YoY), supported by the expansion of high-value-added products and tighter control of SG&A expenses.
• The Special lubricants segment achieved higher sales driven by strong performance in cutting fluids and hard disk (HD) surface lubricants, while die casting lubricants declined. Sales in the Hot melt adhesives segment fell 8.1% YoY, whereas the liquid paraffins and sulfonates segment rose 6.1% YoY. 

• 3Q25 results underscored resilience amid soft markets. RYAM reported revenue of $353 million and adjusted EBITDA of $42 million, modestly below expectations but reflecting operational improvement.
• The loss from continuing operations narrowed sharply to $4 million from $33 million in 3Q24.
• Management reiterated that 2025 represents the trough year as temporary headwinds subside and pricing resets gain traction.

• What you need to know: • This morning, SPA announced assay results from two more drill holes as part of its 9,000-10,000m fall drill program.
• • Today’s results (similar to the previously reported two holes on November 3rd) confirm strong grades over wide intervals within the proposed pit (in areas previously modelled as lower-grade and/or waste), including 0.98 g/t Au over 41m and 1.16 g/t over 35m.
• • The drill results reported today and in the last release are well above resource grades and could have a material impact on future economics.