In today’s briefing:
- CNBM (3323 HK): Whitewash Waiver Secured. Next Is The Proration
- Heartening Rubber Production Figures For Malaysia In 2024
- China National Building Material (3323 HK): Buyback Approved and Implications
- OPEC Keeps Oil Demand Forecasts Steady While the EIA and IEA Raise Outlook for 2025
- E.I.D. Parry Q3FY25 Update: Strong Nutraceutical Performance Despite Sugar Segment Challenge
- Boustead Singapore Meeting (BOCS SP)
- Southern Copper Corporation: The 6 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!
- NIM: Successful 2024 Drill Campaign; Setting Up for 2025
- PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): 208% 2P Reserves Replacement Ratio
- Pharos Energy Plc (LSE: PHAR): MOU with EGPC in Egypt to improve terms and licence duration
CNBM (3323 HK): Whitewash Waiver Secured. Next Is The Proration
- On the 6th December 2024, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), China’s leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
- This elevated CNBM’s parent’s stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver so the parent would not be obliged to make a full blown offer.
- Independent H-shareholder overwhelmingly approved the waiver yesterday, the 19th February. Tendering closes on the 5th March. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. I’m estimating at least 35%. The Offer is now unconditional.
Heartening Rubber Production Figures For Malaysia In 2024
- Year-on-year increase of 11.06% in NR production in 2024
- Ivory Coast once again upstages Thailand in imports
- Seed collection and sales to nurseries turn revenue spinner for smallholders
China National Building Material (3323 HK): Buyback Approved and Implications
- China National Building Material (3323 HK)‘s proposed H-share buyback has been approved. We continue to support existing shareholders to tender their holdings to accept the offer.
- The buyback will enhance FY25 and FY26 EPS by 4.8% and 8.2%, respectively. Its book value will increase by 11% compared to without a buyback.
- The post-buyback FY25 PER of 9.6x is at a premium to the sector median of 7.6x. The proposal has led to significant outperformance, and we anticipate downside risks on completion.
OPEC Keeps Oil Demand Forecasts Steady While the EIA and IEA Raise Outlook for 2025
- OPEC kept its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts steady, while EIA and IEA raised their estimates for 2025 by 3% and 4.8%, respectively.
- EIA sees India leading oil demand growth, with consumption rising 0.3m bpd in 2025 and 2026, while China’s demand is expected to increase by 0.2m bpd over the same period.
- Among the nine OPEC members with quotas, production fell 107k bpd MoM to 21.23m bpd, just below the 21.24m bpd target. Saudi Arabia led the decline in output.
E.I.D. Parry Q3FY25 Update: Strong Nutraceutical Performance Despite Sugar Segment Challenge
- Eid Parry India (EID IN)‘s consolidated Q3 & 9M FY25 results show a 12% revenue growth and a 79% surge in EBITDA, despite challenges in its sugar segment.
- The robust margins and diversified revenue streams strengthen EID Parry’s overall resilience, enabling it to offset sector-specific challenges and tap into emerging growth opportunities.
- The Company’s future capital allocation is expected to prioritize ethanol blending and consumer products, contingent on a sustainable policy framework.
Boustead Singapore Meeting (BOCS SP)
- I had the great pleasure of meeting with Boustead Singapore’s Chief Investment Officer, Keith Chu, and Head of Investor Relations, Dominic Seow, at their headquarters at the Edward Boustead Centre in Singapore.
- The meeting was set up by our friends at Smartkarma, whose analysts have covered Boustead Singapore in the past.
- While the stock price has risen +15% over the past year, it still trades at just 6.8x trailing P/E and 9.4x forward P/E.
Southern Copper Corporation: The 6 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!
- Southern Copper Corporation’s third-quarter and nine-month results for 2024 reflect a mixed performance with several key highlights and challenges.
- On the positive side, the company saw a significant boost in sales, production, and profitability.
- Revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased to $2.9 billion, a 17% rise from the same period in 2023, mainly driven by a 21% rise in copper sales value and an 8% rise in copper sales volume.
NIM: Successful 2024 Drill Campaign; Setting Up for 2025
- What you need to know: • Nicola announced drill results from its 14-hole, 4,874m drill program at its New Craigmont Copper Project.
- • Hole NC-24-002 intersected 1.03% Cu over 52.9m, highlighting significant copper mineralization at this target.
- • We remind readers of NIM’s partner Blue Lagoon Resources which recently secured final mine permits for its Dome Mountain Gold Project.
PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): 208% 2P Reserves Replacement Ratio
- YE24 1P, 2P and 3P reserves at Bretana were estimated at 62.9 mmbbl (YE23: 48 mmbbl), 108 mmbbl (YE23: 100.2 mmbbl) and 206.6 mmbbl (YE23: 199.6 mmbbl) respectively.
- Additionally, Los Angeles is now estimated to hold 5.8 mmbbl of 2P reserves, an increase of 1.5 mmbbl from previous estimates.
- Overall, the new reserves estimates represent a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 293% for 1P and 208% for 2P reserves.
Pharos Energy Plc (LSE: PHAR): MOU with EGPC in Egypt to improve terms and licence duration
- Pharos and IPR have signed a non-binding MOU with EGPC to use their best efforts to conclude negotiations for the merger of the El Fayum and North Beni Suef Concession Agreements.
- While there is limited information at this stage, this is an important step that would unlock further investment through better fiscal terms and longer licence duration.
- The El-Fayum licence has a current expiry date of 2034 (including a 5 year extension), with 9 years remaining.
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